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Baylor v UL Monroe

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Posted: #26

My prediction:

Baylor 52

ULM 34

GL SMILE

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlhuJKZSIuI

 
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Posted: #27
Baylor -9.

7.5 to 9.5 really makes no difference though

Books just trying to bait more UL Monroe backers and scare off Baylor backers.
 
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Posted: #28
I think I underestimated this baylor team... to late now though
 
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Posted: #29
got mine at baylor-8.5.  IS THAT still good to take baylor?
 
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Posted: #30
i think baylor wins by 14+
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by dgnowsf:

UL Monroe beat #8 Arkansas at home in OT, then they went on the road and loss in OT to Auburn. Two SEC teams. They come back home against Baylor, a non ranked team which is going on the road for the first time this year after losing 5 offensive starters (QB, RB, WR, two lineman), yet UL Monroe is still getting 7.5?

Don't be fooled. Auburn has no quarterback and Arkansas didn't have Tyler Wilson in the second half. In the first half (21-7 Arkansas), Arkansas had the ball 6 times, ran 36 plays (5 play of 15 yards or more), not counting last possession where they received ball with 18 seconds and not counting punting as a play, they scored 3 touchdowns, 1 interception and 2 punts. 

Nick Florence is no Brandon Allen nor Kiehl Frazier. Frazier definitely isn't a passer and Allen definitely wasn't prepared to play (coach's fault because you would expect to blow them out and have him ready to run a few plays). Florence beat Missouri in 2009 on the road in his 5th career start as a true freshman with a team record of  3-5 down 11 points at halftime. 32 for 43, 427 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INT. Senior QB, on list for Golden Arm award = he can sling it. UL Monroe gives up big plays and Baylor's offense is potent. What I'm saying is, UL Monroe defense isn't good against a QB who can actually pass the ball.

The line 7.5 is available at all books which is really no different from 8 to 9.5. You are realistically looking at two scores (realistically because you can't expect/rely on miss xp / safety / 2pt conversion/fail). Sharps aren't always right but when they see value, they jump on it. If sharps think UL Monroe is the play, 7.5 wouldn't be available, lines would be at 7 everywhere. You can say, maybe they are waiting for the line to move. The line going to 8 to 9.5, won't make a difference unless it hits 10. At 7.5, the books WANT/BAITING you to play UL Monore and more people will be tempted to play UL Monroe based off their past two games. If the books thought UL Monroe was the play, line would be at 6.5/7.

For those who think UL Monroe is the play, I'd recommend over instead because Baylor won't be stopped. 

Baylor -7 (bought 1/2) -115





When all of the money is one sided and pushes the line like such, you go against the popular vote. The casinos make money, not lose. The casino wins big tonight if ULM +7 and above hits tonight. I am on the casino's side. You are on the popular vote and what people who just want action tonight is on. People never even heard of ULM so they will be hitting Baylor up hard like the morons that they are.

I am on wise guy money ULM +9... Cash it to the bank!!!
 
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by brendanmc:



When all of the money is one sided and pushes the line like such, you go against the popular vote. The casinos make money, not lose. The casino wins big tonight if ULM +7 and above hits tonight. I am on the casino's side. You are on the popular vote and what people who just want action tonight is on. People never even heard of ULM so they will be hitting Baylor up hard like the morons that they are.

I am on wise guy money ULM +9... Cash it to the bank!!!

Are you joking? Nobody heard of UL Monroe? They have been all over the news the past two weeks, might want to tune in. The popular play is the over. It's 60/40 in terms of sides, pretty even, pretty standard as favorites are usually bet more than dogs.

You talk about line movement like you understand it, 7.5 and 9.5 really makes no difference. Occassionally a game will land on 8 or 9, but betting like this will just make you lose money in the long term.

Wise guy money isn't what people aren't playing. Wise guy money is the winner who had the best line available which would be Baylor -7.

If you want to go against the public, go take the under.

 
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Posted: #33

Quote Originally Posted by Hangy73:

got mine at baylor-8.5.  IS THAT still good to take baylor?

As I mentioned, 7.5 to 9.5 really makes no difference, basically two scores. The best line would of been -7, but I like Baylor winning by 20+, so yes, I still like it.

 
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Posted: #34
dgnowsf - great write up!  You are spot on and even left off the fact that Baylor arguably has the 2nd/3rd best receiving corps in the Big 12 with an expierenced QB to get them the ball.
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by Cowboy_Bear:

dgnowsf - great write up!  You are spot on and even left off the fact that Baylor arguably has the 2nd/3rd best receiving corps in the Big 12 with an expierenced QB to get them the ball.

I did get that point, scroll down a little

 
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Posted: #36
Is the over a good play tonite?
 
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Posted: #37

I'd lay off the total, can go either way.

 
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Posted: #38
For those worried about Baylor being the popular pick, it is about 55/45. Pretty good as favorites usually see more money. Good day for favorite to cover.

ULM getting too much playing against teams with no QB.
 
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Posted: #39
Getting too much love^
 
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Posted: #40

The line has never hit 10, if it did, the book manipulated the line by adjusting the juice to bait a ULM play and scare off potential Baylor backs.

Loving that this game is almost an even split one hour from game time.

 
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Posted: #41
Baylor on a teaser and I was shitting in my pants.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by dgnowsf:

Are you joking? Nobody heard of UL Monroe? They have been all over the news the past two weeks, might want to tune in. The popular play is the over. It's 60/40 in terms of sides, pretty even, pretty standard as favorites are usually bet more than dogs.

You talk about line movement like you understand it, 7.5 and 9.5 really makes no difference. Occassionally a game will land on 8 or 9, but betting like this will just make you lose money in the long term.

Wise guy money isn't what people aren't playing. Wise guy money is the winner who had the best line available which would be Baylor -7.

If you want to go against the public, go take the under.



LOL... As I cash in another game against dumb arrogant internet gamblers hahaha
 
 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by brendanmc:



LOL... As I cash in another game against dumb arrogant internet gamblers hahaha

 

sometimes retards like you cash too

congrats.

everyone can tell you don't win often

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