Auburn vs. Oregon Writeup
I will start off by telling at little story.
The week leading up to this game reminds me a lot of the 1992 Sugar Bowl between Alabama and Miami. I'm sure many posters on Covers are too young to remember that game, and many others may need to have their memories refreshed.
In that game Miami had convinced themselves they were all-world and unbeatable, and didn't think Alabama was even worthy to step on the field with them. I remember Miami players boasting constantly all week, partying on Bourbon St., and wondering why they even had to bother playing the game. After all Alabama was "the worst undefeated team in the nation" as everyone kept saying. This was suppose to be a massacre. Meanwhile, Alabama and their players remained very humble, low-key, and approached the game with a very workman-like attitude.
Miami's prediction of a massacre proved prophetic. Unfortunately for Miami they were on the business end of the massacre. After the game someone asked Alabama coach Gene Stallings at what point did he know Alabama was going to win, and he said when EVERYONE of his players were in bed before curfew. Profound words from the wise old football coach indeed.
Oregon reminds me so much of Bama's 1992 National Championship team and Auburn reminds me a lot of Miami. Just like Alabama, It appears to me that Oregon has kept their heads low. They have come to win a game (or at least give it their best). Meanwhile Auburn's players believe the NC Championship parade has already started. I think I read that their curfew is 1 a.m. and even that didn't start until a day or two ago, while the Ducks' players self-imposed a 10 p.m. curfew since they arrived in Arizona.
In sum, I give a HUGE pre-game advantage to Oregon.
Both offense will have the advantage against the oppositions defense, so I think this game will come down to the defense that can get the most stops, and I think that defense is Auburn.
I started this thread by saying that the extended preparation time for this game would heavily favor Auburn defense, just as I said it would heavily favor Boston College's defense tonight. I predicted that Nevada would not sniff the 20-point mark, and although they did score 20 exactly, Nevada's offense only scored 13 of them.
I also said the exact same thing about Oregon last season when they faced Ohio State in the Rose bowl and were favored by 4 or 5 points. Almost everyone on Covers (including many very good cappers) were on the Ducks. I said the long layoff would heavily favor Ohio State's defense, and it did. Oregon scored 17 points in a game that really wasn't that close.
At first blush both offenses look similar because they both utilize a spread philosophy, and they both make you defend the entire field. In reality, however, the offenses are quite different.
Chip Kelly runs a read offense which means that the QB determines who gets the ball based on his reads. They also utilize a zone blocking scheme. Auburn, on the other hand, utilizes a downhill, power running attack that frequently pulls linemen. To complicate things even more for opposing defenses is the Cam factor. With Cam playing QB, Auburn is essentially running a Wildcat offense on every play, except their Wildcat RB is a very accurate passer with a huge arm. That forces opposing defenses to dedicate defensive assets on every play to account for Cam.
Because of the power factor of Auburn's offense, I don't think the extra prep time really helps Oregon's defense all that much. Their d-line is still 70 lbs smaller than Auburn's linemen, and no amount of prep time can rectify that deficiency. In fact I think Oregon only has two defensive players that are bigger than Cam. Accordingly, I think Oregon will have a very difficult time getting Auburn's offense off the field.
Auburn's achille's heal on defense has been their linebackers and secondary. If Oregon can slow down Auburn's dominant front four, they should be able to expliot the back end of the Tigers' defense, and I really don't have much doubt that they will to some extent. But in the end I think Auburn's defense will get a lot more stops than Oregon's defense which I believe will allow Auburn to pull away in the end.
Prediction: Auburn 52 Oregon 31
Auburn is going to lose. A prop bet will save your ass--maybe.
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