BEWARE NO ILL BETTORS

look, i know ball state sucks as much as you do.

however, there are two good reasons for this line to be unreasonably inflated:    (1) ball state's on the road with an awful (1-8) su record ytd; and (2) no ill put up a ton of points last week in a blowout over a hapless e. mich team.

a closer look might make you reconsider laying 17 points against ball state.

true, ball state has only won one game.  but here are the margins their games this year:

north texas -10

new hampshire -7

army - 7

auburn -24

toledo -7

temple -5

bowling green -14

eastern michigan +2

ohio -3

take-home messge:  if you throw out auburn (who is clearly an outlier in terms of competition), ball state HAS NOT LOST BY MORE THAN 14 POINTS ALL YEAR LONG.

in fact, ball state has been losing by smaller margins late in the year (even against somewhat stiffer competition).

don't let the books fool you with ball st's ytd su record.  don't let the books fool you with no. illinois' blowout victory margin last week against a godawful e. michigan team.

take the points tonight.  i know it's hard to put your coin on a team like ball state, but 17 points is too many.

bol

for the record, the wager that i have on this game (in which i am less confident than i would consider myself to me on my "median confidence" bet) is:

no ill - 7   (as part of a 10-pt teaser)

well put Ch33z..........

Ball st. also lost the starting QB and NIU looks rather impressive

easy there, turbo.  read the whole thread.  i'm on the same side of this game as you are (though i'm not giving as many points). 

i made a point of stating that they have lost by slimmer margins later in the year to better competition.   laugh all you want, guy, but that invalidates your argument about north texas and new hampshire, doesn't it?

i hope you're right and no. ill blows them out so i don't have to sweat this game in the fourth quarter.  but i'm not convinced that this line as as slam-dunk easy as you (and others) have made it out to be.  that's all.

you won't have to sweat this one out i think NIU will run away with this game but hey anything can happen

here's another way to look at this.

the total number of points allowed by ball state this year, by opponent:

north texas  20

new hampshire 23

army 24

auburn 54

toledo 37

temple 24

bowling green 31

eastern michigan 27

ohio 20

again, for sake of this argument, let's take auburn out of the equation because they don't represent the kind of competition we're studying for tonight's game.

on average, ball state is giving up 25.7 points per game.

northern illinois is no offensive juggernaut (unless they're playing eastern michigan).  the husky defense is stout, no doubt, but they're going to have to be PRETTY DAMNED STOUT tonight if northern illinois is going to cover a 17 point line while putting up 25.7 points.

let's say no. illinois scores more points than ball state has been giving up on average.  say they even score 34 (the most points that ball state has given up to a team not named auburn this year).   you're THAT sure that ball state can't socre 17?  that's pretty cavalier.

again, please don't get the wrong idea here.  my money's on northern illinois (-7).  i'm just cautioning against what appears to be slind support for northern illinois on what appears to me to be a potentially inflated line.

true, true.  the qb situation is worrisome for ball state backers.

bol  to all us husky backers.  i'll check back on this thread tonight.

sorry for the typo up there in post #16.    slind = blind.

New Hampshire may not be good by Div. I standards but they only have 1 loss in IAA. It was to a divisional foe and the loss was only by 6.

I think that there is no doubt that No. Illini wins this game especially with it being a week night game. The question is will they be up by 24 points and not allow the moose to rear its ugly head.

It's a no play for me but if I just had to take this game, I would probably take the points. No. Ill. is gonna run the ball, as they lead their conference in rushing, but it will be running against the 5th best run defense in their conference.

B. St. has played som run-heavy offenses and have only yielded 11 TD's so far. That's only 2 more than No. Illini. who has faced more pass-heavy offenses. JMHO Good luck on which ever side you take.

Agree. Ball St is a decent team that will put up a fight. 17 points are just too many.

 GL