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Blowoutgm's Week 3 thoughts and plays

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Posted: #51
Scarpone- 

Kansas St. -21.5 is a hard game to call- the K St. QB's have completed 45% of their passes and UTSA is better then they have played especially on defense- offensively they are gaining less than 300 yds/gm. It would be hard for me to pick this game but if a gun was to my head I would pick K St. just because of the home field advantage- a big pass for me

Boise St. vs Ok. St.- this might be the most entertaining game of the weekend- Ok. St. has looked great but have played nobody with a pulse- Boise has looked great while playing better competition. Ok. St. has the advantage on special teams while the Boise defense is better than the Ok. St. defense. Offensiviely both teams are explosive. Gun to my head I would take Boise St. plus the points. This is one game that I will be watching and I will be very interested in making a second half wager. Just a seemingly very tight match up in this one. Good luck this week!

 
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Posted: #52
Anybody in the South Carolina area have a clue on the status of the Gamecock game? I was leaning big on South Carolina but it might depend on weather conditions. The Gamecocks should have way too much speed for Marshall. 

I will also be looking to take the TCU tt over which should be 22.5 or 23 when it comes out- 

Heavy lean on Mizzo -6 as well

Good luck everyone!

 
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Posted: #53

Heritage canceled all plays on this game, as they did with the Appalachian State game.

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #54
Yo blow if you don’t keep an accurate record this year I swear to goodness I will slit my wrists and pour salt inside the wounds and take a bath in rubbing alcohol I’m serious if I see ONE error in your record I’m done 
 
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Posted: #55
Thanks for your analysis on those 2 games.  Two last things.  That auburn  line doesn't  give u any pause? No Sec dog has covered that number yet  Tenn +9.5 +10 against  W Virginia  then S Carolina +9.5 +10 against  Georgia.   Vegas uses  numbers psychologically.   Lastly what makes u think Washington wont win close like they always do against  Utah?  Utah has a really salty D and check whittinghams record as a dog catching points ANYWHERE.  Like 15-2 or something.  Then lastly the line.  -6  -6.5  usually favors the dog.  If the line was -7.5 or -8 i would  actually  feel better.  But the line hit -7 for a few  hours then corrects right back to -6 5. -6.  Vegas wants to hold it there  it seems to funnel more Washington  money.  Or then again i could  have EVERYTHING all wrong.  I love to discuss and analyze  games with quality  Cappers.  Thanks  in advance 
 
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Posted: #56
Because Nebraska is soft and has a freshman qb- probably better to bet the over on that game-


 
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Posted: #57
Scarpone- 

You make some valid points. However, I bet by what I have seen. Meaning I believe the Auburn is Superior to LSU by more than 10 points. Add to this that they are at home against a very young LSU team. I rarely bet using statistics. I could ask you why wouldn’t Auburn cover as every favorite in a similar spot has covered. 

The same with the Utah game- yes they historically give the Huskies fits in Utah- this is why the line is only 6 in my opinion- along with the fact that Washington lost in week 1- the Huskies should make the playoffs in my opinion and are hugely undervalued- 

Again you make valid points and you could be right and I could be wrong- I certainly won’t try to talk you into anything. Good luck with your plays this week!!

 
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Posted: #58
Ok Thanks I see where u are coming from with your logic.  I actually liked both plays Auburn and Washington for similar reasons. I just always play devil's advocate with all my plays and want as much input from real pros.  I asked u about 2 of my plays because maybe u see something i have missed.  Most people get offended with criticism but I welcome it.  The goal is to win money and beat the book so personal feelings dont matter that much.   Maybe this site will get back to its roots with analysis and exchanging information on top plays.  
 
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Posted: #59

 
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Posted: #60
Scarpone- 

I agree- I have no problem with disagreements on my picks- I welcome differing opinions as none of us know everything- I look forward to your thoughts this year- Good luck!
 
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Posted: #61
Pound em this week brother... also looking into Bama in this spot, don't think Ole Miss has the horses to stay with them more than 1st half. With any other coach may be worried bout a back door cover, but Saban is king and his subjects fear him
 
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Posted: #62

Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

Anybody in the South Carolina area have a clue on the status of the Gamecock game? I was leaning big on South Carolina but it might depend on weather conditions. The Gamecocks should have way too much speed for Marshall. I will also be looking to take the TCU tt over which should be 22.5 or 23 when it comes out- Heavy lean on Mizzo -6 as wellGood luck everyone!

Happy to see you with a heavy MIZZOU lean -6 here.  I feel the same way.  Only thing that scares me is this might a 'look ahead' spot for Mizzou on the road with UGA coming in next week.  MIZZOU clearly the more talented team and have actually played a little defense this year -- PUR QB's are trash.  Won't be able to keep up. Do you think you will make MIZZOU -6 an official play?

I like your AUB -9.5 play -- might need to look at that a little closer look at that game.  At -10 I left it alone...

 
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Posted: #63

Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

Anybody in the South Carolina area have a clue on the status of the Gamecock game? I was leaning big on South Carolina but it might depend on weather conditions. The Gamecocks should have way too much speed for Marshall. I will also be looking to take the TCU tt over which should be 22.5 or 23 when it comes out- Heavy lean on Mizzo -6 as wellGood luck everyone!

 

Cancelled

 
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Posted: #64
Treyinventor- 

Crazy when you make a mistake and they people like it's the end of the world- I should just make up records every week and watch the bums come out of the woodwork!!  
 
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Posted: #65
LATHEKID- 

The Ole Piss defense is just so bad- I can't see them hanging within the spread unless Saban calls off the dogs but even then the Bama offense would still score! 

Good luck!!


 
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Posted: #66

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #67

Blowout

 

I was wondering how you felt about UH at -1.5, and Notre Dame at -13?  Thanks for all the help!

 
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Posted: #68
Gl 
 
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Posted: #69
BigDave74-

I am would lean Houston and Vandy on those two games- Houston's defense is better than Tech's- The Irish are hard for me to figure out_ If the game was at Vandy I would be all over them- just out of Well Control school today so I am doing some late capping- hopefully I can find a few more winners before the games start tomorrow- Good luck!
 
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Posted: #70
 Ole Miss team total over 23.5

Yes Bama could easily score 60 points in this one on the Ole Miss defense- that sets up for some "easy" scores by Ole Miss as Bama goes to a somewhat soft zone prevent late in the game- The Bama defense is still young and Saban has traditionally stuggled defending this offense- all these point to an easy tt over in my opinion- let's not forget that the Ole Miss QB is also very good- 

Good luck!
 
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Posted: #71
Game.....I asked this in the forum, and didn't get an answer.  

So I thought I would ask someone I think has a great deal of knowledge in actual betting.

I put this in on a 6 point teaser, but got rejected.

The Following Error Occurred:

Invalid Combination (Max Related Limit is: 0 ) 
[105] TOTAL o57-110 (B+6) (GEORGIA STATE vrs MEMPHIS) 
[106] MEMPHIS -22½-110 (B+6)

Can you explain why.......thanks.
 
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Posted: #72
Cooler- 

In some games they won't allow two parts of a teaser in the same game- Not sure why but some games that is the case


 
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Posted: #73
Thanks......appreciate your time
 
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Posted: #74
Recap for those that can't read:

Auburn -9.5    5 units

One unit plays:

Washington -6  
B.C. -5 

Miss. St. -31

Ole Miss tt over 23.5

Washington game down to 4- if it gets down to 3 I might try for a middle- 

Good luck everyone!!




 
 
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Posted: #75
Dammit- almost forgot - 

Bama -20.5       one unit play

Celebratory Scotch is getting to my head after a long week at school!!

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