Posted:
#1
Those of you that follow my plays of the month know that I only post them if I have a very strong opinion. My history speaks for itself and you can go back and look at my previous posts to verify that.
Tonight when Tulsa visits Boise the pubic is pounding the over at over a 70% clip. The opening number of 52.5 wa very interesting to me based on the odds makers knowledge that this would be a national TV game and that both of these teams have public "over reputations." It was even more interesting that my opening personal power rating number had this total at 56.6. To me the OVER immediately looked like value, then I started the research.
It appears to me.. that conversely to popular opinion...this will be a display of defense not offense. Both teams have tremendous team speed on defense and can play that side of the ball very tough. Boise State is ranked 14th in the nation in yards against and is ranked 13th in the nation in total points against allowing an average of just 14.4 against per game. The Broncos have played 3 games this season on the blue Astro-Turf and all 3 went UNDER.
Tulsa is almost just as good defensively allowing an average 16.2 points per game and rank 27th n the nation n yards allowed...and these stats includes their loss on the road to Oklahoma, 45-0.
Tulsa, with the exception of Oklahoma allowed (who averages 187 rushing per game), held New Mexico to 55 yards rushing on 25 carries, held Rice to 47 rushing yards on 30 carries and stonewalled Tulane giving up only 39 yards on 34 carries. That is 1.58 yards per carry. I am going to discount the rushing stats against in the game versus Sam Houston as well, since it was 35-3 Tulsa at Half-Time and Sam Houston pretty much conceded and ran the ball in the 2nd half versus Tulsa back-ups (instead of trying to mount a comeback through the air). In Tulsa's 3 contests this year on artificial turf the UNDER has cashed every time. Tulsa has not played a I-A game this year that has gone over 54 points.
Tulsa on offense rushes the ball an average of 42.4 times per game, Boise rushes 37 times per game.
It is very important to note that in every game this season (with the exception of Tulsa's road game against Oklahoma) that these teams have always played the role of favorite and have not faced the type of defensive speed that they will each see tonight.
This will be a major step up in class for both offenses tonight in competition and it will be for all 4 quarters. That is why my Total game of the month is on the UNDER 55.
GL!
Tonight when Tulsa visits Boise the pubic is pounding the over at over a 70% clip. The opening number of 52.5 wa very interesting to me based on the odds makers knowledge that this would be a national TV game and that both of these teams have public "over reputations." It was even more interesting that my opening personal power rating number had this total at 56.6. To me the OVER immediately looked like value, then I started the research.
It appears to me.. that conversely to popular opinion...this will be a display of defense not offense. Both teams have tremendous team speed on defense and can play that side of the ball very tough. Boise State is ranked 14th in the nation in yards against and is ranked 13th in the nation in total points against allowing an average of just 14.4 against per game. The Broncos have played 3 games this season on the blue Astro-Turf and all 3 went UNDER.
Tulsa is almost just as good defensively allowing an average 16.2 points per game and rank 27th n the nation n yards allowed...and these stats includes their loss on the road to Oklahoma, 45-0.
Tulsa, with the exception of Oklahoma allowed (who averages 187 rushing per game), held New Mexico to 55 yards rushing on 25 carries, held Rice to 47 rushing yards on 30 carries and stonewalled Tulane giving up only 39 yards on 34 carries. That is 1.58 yards per carry. I am going to discount the rushing stats against in the game versus Sam Houston as well, since it was 35-3 Tulsa at Half-Time and Sam Houston pretty much conceded and ran the ball in the 2nd half versus Tulsa back-ups (instead of trying to mount a comeback through the air). In Tulsa's 3 contests this year on artificial turf the UNDER has cashed every time. Tulsa has not played a I-A game this year that has gone over 54 points.
Tulsa on offense rushes the ball an average of 42.4 times per game, Boise rushes 37 times per game.
It is very important to note that in every game this season (with the exception of Tulsa's road game against Oklahoma) that these teams have always played the role of favorite and have not faced the type of defensive speed that they will each see tonight.
This will be a major step up in class for both offenses tonight in competition and it will be for all 4 quarters. That is why my Total game of the month is on the UNDER 55.
GL!
0
nice write-up!! Good luck tonight!! 
You do make some solid points though.
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