Great info/write up from CHARLOTTEsports on the GT/USC game in case anyone in here wanted to see it...
wow, the pregame drama. This is going to be one of the best bowl games to watch for me as the pregame drama has been at an all time high for this one. As soon as I saw this matchup, my initial thought was this: a bunch of premadonna, lane kiffin coached kids who most of which will prob be in the nfl aren't going to want to be getting chop blocked at the line of scrimmage in a cold, windy, possibly rainy bowl game I'd be willing to bet on that. Some of the players took to Twitter after their postseason destination was announced, ranking on El Paso. And, upon arriving, at least one player was chided for posting less-than-complimentary comments about the city on Twitter. "Sorry about what I said last night. It came out wrong. I'm so grateful to be a part of this bowl and looking forward to a great game," Williams said in the apology. "I was saying I'm just proud to be here with my family. ... I also think the people in El Paso are very welcoming and made me feel at home. Once again I apologize for speaking with out thinking." that type of behaviour should transfer well to the football field. We've seen in the past that teams unhappy with their destination tend to be sluggish and unenthusiastic. GT felt disrespected when USC failed to show up to the Sheriff's Posse Dinner on time, leading Johnson to take his team and leave after waiting on head coach Lane Kiffin and the Trojans for over 90 minutes. hahahahaha, really? this is awesome. paul johnson is a devious a s s hole and i know the chop blocking will be at its finest tonight. i bet there are going to be a lot "injuries" on the USC d line as they are going to fear for their nfl careers. usc only covered 3 times this year, granted most of the time they were big favs, but they just never played like they were a boss and kiffen has a lot to do with that i think. gt hasn't won a bowl game in i don't know how long, but i certainly like their chances tonight in what looks to be an extremely windy city and stadium, not good for a team that likes to whip the ball around. ga tech ended the season on a good spread run and usc didn't. usc lost 4 of their last 5 games, after opening the season dreaming of a heisman trophy winning qb and a trip to miami, they ended up in El Paso with their back up qb and their future starting before their season has ended. I call in to question the motivation of this team more than any bowl game to date. this bowl game might generate a crowd for ga tech just by the way usc has been acting since they've been in el paso. i know 1 team is happy to be here after petitioning the ncaa to get here, hahah, yes, they really had to do that b/c of their losing record. i'm not blind to the talent on offense for usc; however, as ga tech has been marginal at best defensively and we know the talent at receiver for usc, usc might score just by being on the field, but again, i don't think their d line wants any part of the chop blocking they are going to have to battle.
Ga Tech +7.5 -120
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Great info/write up from CHARLOTTEsports on the GT/USC game in case anyone in here wanted to see it...
wow, the pregame drama. This is going to be one of the best bowl games to watch for me as the pregame drama has been at an all time high for this one. As soon as I saw this matchup, my initial thought was this: a bunch of premadonna, lane kiffin coached kids who most of which will prob be in the nfl aren't going to want to be getting chop blocked at the line of scrimmage in a cold, windy, possibly rainy bowl game I'd be willing to bet on that. Some of the players took to Twitter after their postseason destination was announced, ranking on El Paso. And, upon arriving, at least one player was chided for posting less-than-complimentary comments about the city on Twitter. "Sorry about what I said last night. It came out wrong. I'm so grateful to be a part of this bowl and looking forward to a great game," Williams said in the apology. "I was saying I'm just proud to be here with my family. ... I also think the people in El Paso are very welcoming and made me feel at home. Once again I apologize for speaking with out thinking." that type of behaviour should transfer well to the football field. We've seen in the past that teams unhappy with their destination tend to be sluggish and unenthusiastic. GT felt disrespected when USC failed to show up to the Sheriff's Posse Dinner on time, leading Johnson to take his team and leave after waiting on head coach Lane Kiffin and the Trojans for over 90 minutes. hahahahaha, really? this is awesome. paul johnson is a devious a s s hole and i know the chop blocking will be at its finest tonight. i bet there are going to be a lot "injuries" on the USC d line as they are going to fear for their nfl careers. usc only covered 3 times this year, granted most of the time they were big favs, but they just never played like they were a boss and kiffen has a lot to do with that i think. gt hasn't won a bowl game in i don't know how long, but i certainly like their chances tonight in what looks to be an extremely windy city and stadium, not good for a team that likes to whip the ball around. ga tech ended the season on a good spread run and usc didn't. usc lost 4 of their last 5 games, after opening the season dreaming of a heisman trophy winning qb and a trip to miami, they ended up in El Paso with their back up qb and their future starting before their season has ended. I call in to question the motivation of this team more than any bowl game to date. this bowl game might generate a crowd for ga tech just by the way usc has been acting since they've been in el paso. i know 1 team is happy to be here after petitioning the ncaa to get here, hahah, yes, they really had to do that b/c of their losing record. i'm not blind to the talent on offense for usc; however, as ga tech has been marginal at best defensively and we know the talent at receiver for usc, usc might score just by being on the field, but again, i don't think their d line wants any part of the chop blocking they are going to have to battle.
NW / Miss St OVER 54 SCaro -4' Neb +5' 1H N Ill +7' 1H N Ill / FSU UNDER 29 Wisky ML *ML (very small) > NIU...Neb...Purdue.. (as these teams have NO chance)....
12:00 PM 247 Purdue 248 Oklahoma State -17 /70 TV: ESPN U, DTV: 208 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, NORTH WIND 10-15. KICKOFF TEMP 42
VALUE *none
Travel/SOS/injuries *OSU 231 miles...PU 762 *OSU much tougher SOS (#18 > 53)
*OSU many banged up...no key guys out
TRENDS *game - only 3rd one *PU - 2-6 ATS bowls....19-4 UNDER vs top O's *OSU - Gundy 3-3/3-3 bowls...4-0/3-1 as bowl fav...37-16 ATS as DD fav
MOTIVATION
*PU with slight edge....as hard to believe Okie St fired up to be in Heart of Dallas Bowl Of interest here...PU HC Hope was fired (WR coach is interim)...plus OSU OC Todd Monken is gone too
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
* what 'should happen'...is Boilers get slaughtered...BUT....a
(probably) un-motivated Okie St can't be trusted here laying DD...nor
can Purdue ...led by an interim coach about to be fired (probably) Boilers
have actually moved the ball since going to Marve at QB (playing with
torn ACL)...(last3 > 490 vs Iowa...400 vs Illinois..558 vs Indiana)
.....also rushing for 200 or so per game...Boiler D (tho talented) can't
stop anybody....and has little chance of stopping OSU here
Look for OSU to win a very high scoring game....best to stay away IMO.......
Travel/SOS/injuries *Miss St 473 miles...NW 877
*Miss St slightly tougher schedule *no key inj
TRENDS *game - fav is 13-1 SU / 11-3 ATS...UNDER is 3-1 *NW - 0-4 SU / 3-1 ATS bowls.....7-3 OVER bowls.....13-6 away as <7pt dog...last bowl win 1948
*MSU - Mullen 2-0/1-1 bowls
MOTIVATION *both ready here...maybe slight edge to NW...as HC Fitzgerald obsessed with getting 1st bowl W since WW11
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN * I think NW is simply the better team here...flawed yes...and at an athletic disadvantage maybe....
But MSU played a really weak run of teams ...and struggled when playing a
good team (played only 4 bowl teams > 0-4 SU / 0-4 ATS) NW....on
the other hand an overachiever...playing 7 bowl quality teams (6+ Penn
St)....in their 3 losses they blew DD 2H leads...(their propensity to
CHOKE....yes takes a little away)
Miss St D not bad vs an inside power running game...but struggled when
facing a perimeter option style (like Ole Miss/Aggs)....look for NW to
control the game with their rushing attack and win a higher scoring
game
Travel/SOS/injuries *SC 427 miles...UM 995 *SC #15....UM #46 SOS *UM - st CB Floyd and P OUT SC - no key...b/u LB and b/u C out...QB banged up
TRENDS * game- OVER is 8-3...dogs are 9-4 *UM- 3-6 ATS bowls....6-0 OVER vs SEC...OVER is 10-2 in UM bowls....OVER is 7-0 on neutral field SC - Spurrier 2-4/2-4 bowls....OVER is 8-3 bowls.....SC on 11-4 ATS run all games ...vs good O's (6.3/play+)....OVER is 20-8
SC is 21-4 SU...the last 2 years..................12-1 vs SEC East **Big10 has covered 7/10 bowls vs SEC**
MOTIVATION *no edge here
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*Tough one here...Looks like an obvious UNDER call....as both O's
should have trouble moving it...while game series trends say OVER
I would imagine Spurrier has a few things figured out as how to attack a
(pretty tough really) Mich D..likewise we don't know how Denard will be
used (Gardner should start at QB)...so maybe best to avoid this one...
I look for S Caro to win a low scoring game....Michigan surely capable of an upset tho....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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TUESDAY 1/1
ONE UNIT PLAYS
NW -1 Purdue / Okie St OVER 70 Wisky +6
smaller
Wisky / Tree UNDER 47
*maybe / consider
NW / Miss St OVER 54 SCaro -4' Neb +5' 1H N Ill +7' 1H N Ill / FSU UNDER 29 Wisky ML *ML (very small) > NIU...Neb...Purdue.. (as these teams have NO chance)....
12:00 PM 247 Purdue 248 Oklahoma State -17 /70 TV: ESPN U, DTV: 208 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, NORTH WIND 10-15. KICKOFF TEMP 42
VALUE *none
Travel/SOS/injuries *OSU 231 miles...PU 762 *OSU much tougher SOS (#18 > 53)
*OSU many banged up...no key guys out
TRENDS *game - only 3rd one *PU - 2-6 ATS bowls....19-4 UNDER vs top O's *OSU - Gundy 3-3/3-3 bowls...4-0/3-1 as bowl fav...37-16 ATS as DD fav
MOTIVATION
*PU with slight edge....as hard to believe Okie St fired up to be in Heart of Dallas Bowl Of interest here...PU HC Hope was fired (WR coach is interim)...plus OSU OC Todd Monken is gone too
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
* what 'should happen'...is Boilers get slaughtered...BUT....a
(probably) un-motivated Okie St can't be trusted here laying DD...nor
can Purdue ...led by an interim coach about to be fired (probably) Boilers
have actually moved the ball since going to Marve at QB (playing with
torn ACL)...(last3 > 490 vs Iowa...400 vs Illinois..558 vs Indiana)
.....also rushing for 200 or so per game...Boiler D (tho talented) can't
stop anybody....and has little chance of stopping OSU here
Look for OSU to win a very high scoring game....best to stay away IMO.......
Travel/SOS/injuries *Miss St 473 miles...NW 877
*Miss St slightly tougher schedule *no key inj
TRENDS *game - fav is 13-1 SU / 11-3 ATS...UNDER is 3-1 *NW - 0-4 SU / 3-1 ATS bowls.....7-3 OVER bowls.....13-6 away as <7pt dog...last bowl win 1948
*MSU - Mullen 2-0/1-1 bowls
MOTIVATION *both ready here...maybe slight edge to NW...as HC Fitzgerald obsessed with getting 1st bowl W since WW11
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN * I think NW is simply the better team here...flawed yes...and at an athletic disadvantage maybe....
But MSU played a really weak run of teams ...and struggled when playing a
good team (played only 4 bowl teams > 0-4 SU / 0-4 ATS) NW....on
the other hand an overachiever...playing 7 bowl quality teams (6+ Penn
St)....in their 3 losses they blew DD 2H leads...(their propensity to
CHOKE....yes takes a little away)
Miss St D not bad vs an inside power running game...but struggled when
facing a perimeter option style (like Ole Miss/Aggs)....look for NW to
control the game with their rushing attack and win a higher scoring
game
Travel/SOS/injuries *SC 427 miles...UM 995 *SC #15....UM #46 SOS *UM - st CB Floyd and P OUT SC - no key...b/u LB and b/u C out...QB banged up
TRENDS * game- OVER is 8-3...dogs are 9-4 *UM- 3-6 ATS bowls....6-0 OVER vs SEC...OVER is 10-2 in UM bowls....OVER is 7-0 on neutral field SC - Spurrier 2-4/2-4 bowls....OVER is 8-3 bowls.....SC on 11-4 ATS run all games ...vs good O's (6.3/play+)....OVER is 20-8
SC is 21-4 SU...the last 2 years..................12-1 vs SEC East **Big10 has covered 7/10 bowls vs SEC**
MOTIVATION *no edge here
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*Tough one here...Looks like an obvious UNDER call....as both O's
should have trouble moving it...while game series trends say OVER
I would imagine Spurrier has a few things figured out as how to attack a
(pretty tough really) Mich D..likewise we don't know how Denard will be
used (Gardner should start at QB)...so maybe best to avoid this one...
I look for S Caro to win a low scoring game....Michigan surely capable of an upset tho....
Travel/SOS/injuries *Ga 320 miles....Neb 1212 *Neb- C Jackson OUT Ga - ***NT Jenkins OUT***
TRENDS *UNDER is 5-2...Big 10 3-1/3-1 as DDdog *Neb - Pelini 3-2/3-2 bowls....Huskers played here LY (lost to S Caro)..0-3 ATS vs SEC.....UNDER is 8-1 in Neb Bowls fav are 11-4 ATS in Neb bowls *Ga - Richt 7-4/6-5 bowls..6-1 / 5-2 vs B10
MOTIVATION *edge to Nebraska here...blown out by Wisky in Big
10 title game....easier to recover from than Ga's being so close to BCS
title game...losing in final minutes to Bama both have lost their last 2 bowls...
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN *Georgia the 'obvious' call here....as they
are much stronger than Wisky...BUT...their motivation must be in
question...but more importantly..they gave up 958 rushing their last 3
games....and now their huge NT Jenkins is OUT...
AND....Huskers bring back team leader RB Burkhead from inj (Huskers when
healthy can run ...5.4/rush....ran for 313 vs Mich St)... So....do you really want to lay DD (or close) to a dog that should be able to run?....(a lot)....
Plus....Husker pass D is among nation's best...but their rush D (esp
after losing DT Steinkuhler) is really bad........(344 to UCLA..371 to
Ohio St...539 to Wisky!!) Look for Georgia to win a close and high scoring game....Huskers with a decent chance to cover...slim chance to win
Travel/SOS/injuries *Tree 320 miles...Wisky 1662 *Tree #8 SOS....UW #50 *Tree - NT Stephens still out...P is ?
TRENDS *game- fav is 8-3/6-5..PAC12 4-1/4-1
*Tree - 2-4/5-1 bowls....dogs are 6-1 ATS...**6-0 ATS in Jan bowls** *UW- 1-4/2-3 bowls...dogs 9-4 ATS...13-3 OVER vs vgood D's (<5.0/play)
MOTIVATION
*slight to Wisky here...off BB Rose Bowl losses ('play on')...with AD
Alvarez the interim (won 3 Rose Bowls...8-3 overall bowl record)
But Tree hasn't won here since 1972...so will be equally motivated
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*Wisky O doesn't match up wortha crap vs Tree D..if you have some speed
to get outside.....like the Ducks or Zona.....esp with a mobile
QB...the Tree is vulnerable
Wisky has none of this....and a QB not likely to find much vs the #12
pass D....to make it worse...Tree leads the nation in sacks...(Wisky OL
struggled at times with protection) Tree O has a better shot at
moving it...with a better/mobile QB...although it won't be easy as Ohio
St...Mich St...and Penn St couldn't run effectively...and Wisky with #30
pass D too..
Tree with large ST edge *Look for Tree to win a very tough/tight
old school slugfest......Wisky a good shot to cover...slight chance to
pull the upset
VALUE *slight with NIU..line should be 10'-12 ish....
Travel/SOS/injuries *FSU 406 miles away....NIU 1218 *SOS FSU #68....NIU #124 *NIU > #1 RB Settle...and #3 RB Harris are OUT (Settle been out) FSU > DE Carradine out (#2 lead. tackler)
TRENDS *game - dogs 7-2...UNDER is 5-1 *NIU- 3-16 SU/10-8-1 vs BCS schools.....21-1 SU run all games...25-13 ATS *FSU - **8-0-1 ATS bowls**.....Fisher 3-0/3-0....0-10 ATS vs good O's (6.3/play+)
MOTIVATION *NIU HC gone....FSU DC Stoops gone.....$$ If FSU players received 1 million each for winning...the win by 50 points HERE...they could get beat
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN *If FSU comes out with a half-azz effort....NIU D is good enough to get pressure and force FSU to throw
as weak D's such as Ga Tech...and NCSt were able to do...Based on
inconsistent efforts in the past....NIU is the only way to go here (if
you must)....pass for me Look for FSU to win a kinda close....lower scoring game...NIU with slim...but do-able upset shot
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
Travel/SOS/injuries *Ga 320 miles....Neb 1212 *Neb- C Jackson OUT Ga - ***NT Jenkins OUT***
TRENDS *UNDER is 5-2...Big 10 3-1/3-1 as DDdog *Neb - Pelini 3-2/3-2 bowls....Huskers played here LY (lost to S Caro)..0-3 ATS vs SEC.....UNDER is 8-1 in Neb Bowls fav are 11-4 ATS in Neb bowls *Ga - Richt 7-4/6-5 bowls..6-1 / 5-2 vs B10
MOTIVATION *edge to Nebraska here...blown out by Wisky in Big
10 title game....easier to recover from than Ga's being so close to BCS
title game...losing in final minutes to Bama both have lost their last 2 bowls...
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN *Georgia the 'obvious' call here....as they
are much stronger than Wisky...BUT...their motivation must be in
question...but more importantly..they gave up 958 rushing their last 3
games....and now their huge NT Jenkins is OUT...
AND....Huskers bring back team leader RB Burkhead from inj (Huskers when
healthy can run ...5.4/rush....ran for 313 vs Mich St)... So....do you really want to lay DD (or close) to a dog that should be able to run?....(a lot)....
Plus....Husker pass D is among nation's best...but their rush D (esp
after losing DT Steinkuhler) is really bad........(344 to UCLA..371 to
Ohio St...539 to Wisky!!) Look for Georgia to win a close and high scoring game....Huskers with a decent chance to cover...slim chance to win
Travel/SOS/injuries *Tree 320 miles...Wisky 1662 *Tree #8 SOS....UW #50 *Tree - NT Stephens still out...P is ?
TRENDS *game- fav is 8-3/6-5..PAC12 4-1/4-1
*Tree - 2-4/5-1 bowls....dogs are 6-1 ATS...**6-0 ATS in Jan bowls** *UW- 1-4/2-3 bowls...dogs 9-4 ATS...13-3 OVER vs vgood D's (<5.0/play)
MOTIVATION
*slight to Wisky here...off BB Rose Bowl losses ('play on')...with AD
Alvarez the interim (won 3 Rose Bowls...8-3 overall bowl record)
But Tree hasn't won here since 1972...so will be equally motivated
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*Wisky O doesn't match up wortha crap vs Tree D..if you have some speed
to get outside.....like the Ducks or Zona.....esp with a mobile
QB...the Tree is vulnerable
Wisky has none of this....and a QB not likely to find much vs the #12
pass D....to make it worse...Tree leads the nation in sacks...(Wisky OL
struggled at times with protection) Tree O has a better shot at
moving it...with a better/mobile QB...although it won't be easy as Ohio
St...Mich St...and Penn St couldn't run effectively...and Wisky with #30
pass D too..
Tree with large ST edge *Look for Tree to win a very tough/tight
old school slugfest......Wisky a good shot to cover...slight chance to
pull the upset
VALUE *slight with NIU..line should be 10'-12 ish....
Travel/SOS/injuries *FSU 406 miles away....NIU 1218 *SOS FSU #68....NIU #124 *NIU > #1 RB Settle...and #3 RB Harris are OUT (Settle been out) FSU > DE Carradine out (#2 lead. tackler)
TRENDS *game - dogs 7-2...UNDER is 5-1 *NIU- 3-16 SU/10-8-1 vs BCS schools.....21-1 SU run all games...25-13 ATS *FSU - **8-0-1 ATS bowls**.....Fisher 3-0/3-0....0-10 ATS vs good O's (6.3/play+)
MOTIVATION *NIU HC gone....FSU DC Stoops gone.....$$ If FSU players received 1 million each for winning...the win by 50 points HERE...they could get beat
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN *If FSU comes out with a half-azz effort....NIU D is good enough to get pressure and force FSU to throw
as weak D's such as Ga Tech...and NCSt were able to do...Based on
inconsistent efforts in the past....NIU is the only way to go here (if
you must)....pass for me Look for FSU to win a kinda close....lower scoring game...NIU with slim...but do-able upset shot
VALUE *with Louisville...line should be closer to 10 maybe..
Travel/SOS/weather/injuries * UL 325 miles away...UF 465 miles *SOS UF with about 10th toughest....UL about #80 *dome *no key players out TRENDS *game- FAV is 13-3 SU / 10-5-1 ATS...SEC is 7-3/7-3....SU winner is 17-2-1 ATS
*UL- 1-1/1-1 under Strong...FAV are 7-1-1 in their bowls...5-1 OVER bowls..Strong is 10-4 as dog (all games)
*UF- *******in Gator bowls the SU winner is 21-0 ATS***********************So.. 6-1 SU / 6-1 ATS bowls.....4-0/4-0 BCS bowls.....8-2 OVER in Jan bowls Muschamp is 12-13 ATS all games
*conf- BE is 8-1 SU / 8-1 ATS vs SEC...wtf...but BE is 3-16 SU / 4-15 ATS as TD+ dog..... MOTIVATION *slight edge to Louisville here...Gators think they should be in BCS title game..Strong's teams are a proven underdog and will play their azz off here remember motivation affects PREPARATION more than anything...Gators will surely be fired up MATCH-UP *Just a TERRIBLE match-up for Louisville..since RB Perry got hurt (vs Cuse)...they can't run at all...and almost surely won't be able to run at all here.... So...it's gonna be the Teddy Bridgewater show....PROBLEM?....Gators have the nation's best Pass D...and Louisville OL at times has struggled vs pressure/picking up/reacting to blitzes....Muschamp wants to / should be able to dial up pressure without blitzing... Although UF QB Driskel has improved greatly and should be sharp here....Gators should go ground/pound here.....as the weakness of the Louisville D...is defending the run...(giving up 278 rushing to Cuse....255 to Temple.....224 to SMiss).....the #7 rush D in the BE....uh-oh...Gators don't turn the ball over....and UL doesn't bring much pressure.... OC Pease may want to get fancy...but Muschamp (should) ORDER him to pound RB Gillislee
Stat wise....
O D ST FP
UL - 3 46 114 99
UF - 50 1 3 10
*O/D = offensive / defensive efficiency (factoring in SOS...gargage time stats +++) ST= special team efficiency FP= field position (based on where drives started..opponents drives started) *compliments of FEI rankings (football outsiders)
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN *Gators the 'obvious' play...the problem is that they seem to play to the level of their opponents...and it is tough to go with Louisville here with that bad of a match-up..plus its hard to just ignore the Gator's bowl winner also covering 21 bowls/row...Florida is just not explosive enough offensively to confidently lay 14 here... BOTH are slow starters...I would look for a close and low scoring 1st half....with Florida taking control in the 2nd half...UL QB Bridgewater may be effective for awhile....but their inability to run the ball and sustain drives...should kill them (literally) late in this game
PLAY 1H UNDER 24 (-105 at 5 Dimes) *look for a play on OVER 2H (if 1H low scoring)...or Florida TT over *if 1H higher scoring...then UNDER 2H..or Louisville TT UNDER
strong lean/consider Louisville +14 (+7 1H at +110 not bad) ....Cards a slow starter but must start fast or will get killed
BOL boys...................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
so far.....
SU ATS
ACC (6) 4-2 4-2 Big East (5) 2-1 2-1 Big 10 (7) 2-4 3-3 Big 12 (9) 4-3 3-4 CUSA (5) 4-1 4-1 Ind(3) 1-1 1-1 MAC (7) 3-3 3-3 MWest (5) 1-4 1-4 Pac-12 (8) 3-4 3-4 SEC (9) 3-2 3-3 Sun Belt (4) 1-2 1-2 WAC (2) 2-0 2-0
VALUE *with Louisville...line should be closer to 10 maybe..
Travel/SOS/weather/injuries * UL 325 miles away...UF 465 miles *SOS UF with about 10th toughest....UL about #80 *dome *no key players out TRENDS *game- FAV is 13-3 SU / 10-5-1 ATS...SEC is 7-3/7-3....SU winner is 17-2-1 ATS
*UL- 1-1/1-1 under Strong...FAV are 7-1-1 in their bowls...5-1 OVER bowls..Strong is 10-4 as dog (all games)
*UF- *******in Gator bowls the SU winner is 21-0 ATS***********************So.. 6-1 SU / 6-1 ATS bowls.....4-0/4-0 BCS bowls.....8-2 OVER in Jan bowls Muschamp is 12-13 ATS all games
*conf- BE is 8-1 SU / 8-1 ATS vs SEC...wtf...but BE is 3-16 SU / 4-15 ATS as TD+ dog..... MOTIVATION *slight edge to Louisville here...Gators think they should be in BCS title game..Strong's teams are a proven underdog and will play their azz off here remember motivation affects PREPARATION more than anything...Gators will surely be fired up MATCH-UP *Just a TERRIBLE match-up for Louisville..since RB Perry got hurt (vs Cuse)...they can't run at all...and almost surely won't be able to run at all here.... So...it's gonna be the Teddy Bridgewater show....PROBLEM?....Gators have the nation's best Pass D...and Louisville OL at times has struggled vs pressure/picking up/reacting to blitzes....Muschamp wants to / should be able to dial up pressure without blitzing... Although UF QB Driskel has improved greatly and should be sharp here....Gators should go ground/pound here.....as the weakness of the Louisville D...is defending the run...(giving up 278 rushing to Cuse....255 to Temple.....224 to SMiss).....the #7 rush D in the BE....uh-oh...Gators don't turn the ball over....and UL doesn't bring much pressure.... OC Pease may want to get fancy...but Muschamp (should) ORDER him to pound RB Gillislee
Stat wise....
O D ST FP
UL - 3 46 114 99
UF - 50 1 3 10
*O/D = offensive / defensive efficiency (factoring in SOS...gargage time stats +++) ST= special team efficiency FP= field position (based on where drives started..opponents drives started) *compliments of FEI rankings (football outsiders)
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN *Gators the 'obvious' play...the problem is that they seem to play to the level of their opponents...and it is tough to go with Louisville here with that bad of a match-up..plus its hard to just ignore the Gator's bowl winner also covering 21 bowls/row...Florida is just not explosive enough offensively to confidently lay 14 here... BOTH are slow starters...I would look for a close and low scoring 1st half....with Florida taking control in the 2nd half...UL QB Bridgewater may be effective for awhile....but their inability to run the ball and sustain drives...should kill them (literally) late in this game
PLAY 1H UNDER 24 (-105 at 5 Dimes) *look for a play on OVER 2H (if 1H low scoring)...or Florida TT over *if 1H higher scoring...then UNDER 2H..or Louisville TT UNDER
strong lean/consider Louisville +14 (+7 1H at +110 not bad) ....Cards a slow starter but must start fast or will get killed
total= sum of all...KSU tops in nation O & D= offense/defense....factoring SOS / garbage time ST= special teams FP= field position
VALUE *with KSU...line should be 7 or so
Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
*KSU 952....UO 933 *KSU #23 SOS....UO #43 *dome *UO- Sr OL Nick Cody OUT (starter recently 6th OL) K St - AA FS Ty Zimmerman will play..<100% probably)
TRENDS *game - P12 teams are 4-0 SU / ATS..dogs are 5-1 ATS
*KSU- Snyder 0-2/0-2 since returning...6-7/5-8 all bowls 9-2 as bowl dog...0-6 ATS bowl run....all games Snyder is 12-12 SU as a dog....19-5 ATS....8-1 ATS run as road dog *Ducks- Kelly is 1-2/1-2 bowls...3-6 / 4-5 bowl run...dogs are 10-3...7 of last 10 bowls UNDER
all games > 37-18 OVER...3-1 /3-1 vs B12...a run of 9-1 ATS away *CONF- P12 is 9-22 ATS as (TD+) bowl favorite....P12 on 9-16 SU/11-14 bowl run B12 11-4 SU / 8-5 vs P12....< 10 pt dog 3-14/4-13 ATS
MOTIVATION *KSU with huge edge here...their bubble was
burst earlier...and they really had little BCS title aspirations when
season began IMO....and haven't been to a BCS bowl since '03.... Ducks are in their 4th st BCS bowl...and their only acceptable finish was the BCS title game ....
**IN addition...HC Kelly already has (supposedly) an interview
scheduled FRIDAY for the HC job with Cleveland Browns...and is leading
guy at Philly too key > players think he is leaving > doesn't really matter if he is or not = distraction in PREPARATION....
MATCH-UP *on the surface it appears UGLY for KSt...as
they got shredded by Baylor (turns out Bears are pretty good tho)...and
of note Bears RB Seastrunk...a key contributor...was the 4th string or
so RB at Oregon in 2011....
So the 1st look here maybe should be the Ducks...because if they can't
cover or tackle the Bears...what are they gonna do here?.... 3 things... *
KSU had a few key injuries (FS/signal caller Zimmerman was out >
replaced by a true FR...Klein off concussion and clearly not himself)
*KSt has already played and done very well vs a similar O style (held OU and WV to 14 and 19 points resp.) *with
extra time to prepare...opposing D's have slowed the Ducks....we
thought they were surely gonna run over slow Ohio St....nope only 17
points and 260 TO.... couldn't run at all vs Auburn....held to 19
points...most thought Wisky couldn't stay up with them either LY...Ducks
were lucky to escape with a W....
This game appears similar to those......Ducks facing a power running game with an excellent running QB KSt is the veteran team with SENIOR leaders on O & D....THIS is the year they have been pointing to.. Ducks
look to be better NEXT year....Wildcats start 9 upperclassmen on O (4
Sr)...and 11 on D (9 Sr)....majority of 2 deep (32/44 are Jrs/Srs)
The majority of Duck 2 deep are Fr or Soph (23/44)....led by a rFR QB...
KEY
here will be can KSU sustain drives by RUNNING the football?...keeping
their D off the field....It appears they should be able to...Duck's
strength is pass D...they gave up way too much on the ground....they
stopped Zona...Fresno and Oreg St.....everybody else ran well (allowed
4.1/146 facing the 60th toughest schedule of rush O's)
Defensively.....can KST get penetration and disrupt timing /rhythym of
the Duck O?....If they cannot...and Mariota is comfortable at the mesh
point/ in the pocket .....this one could get ugly...and KST does not
want to play catch-up here
note > Ducks OL has played very well.....but does rank #115 in TFL allowed
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*I think the Wildcats will be the more dialed-in/focused team
here...and look more like the team we saw early in the year....and keep
this one very close or win outright in a relatively low scoring
game...recall a huge key to winning bowls is turnovers and special team
play.....KSU is #1 in the nation in BOTH
$$$ strong play Kan St +9 *or even better +7 / +116 if available (what I'll do) KSU ML play at +255 worthwhile as small play...
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
8:30 PM 261 Kansas State 262 Oregon -9 / 75 (1H -5'/38) (TT are 41'/34) TV: ESPN, DTV: 206 / dome
total= sum of all...KSU tops in nation O & D= offense/defense....factoring SOS / garbage time ST= special teams FP= field position
VALUE *with KSU...line should be 7 or so
Travel/SOS/weather/injuries
*KSU 952....UO 933 *KSU #23 SOS....UO #43 *dome *UO- Sr OL Nick Cody OUT (starter recently 6th OL) K St - AA FS Ty Zimmerman will play..<100% probably)
TRENDS *game - P12 teams are 4-0 SU / ATS..dogs are 5-1 ATS
*KSU- Snyder 0-2/0-2 since returning...6-7/5-8 all bowls 9-2 as bowl dog...0-6 ATS bowl run....all games Snyder is 12-12 SU as a dog....19-5 ATS....8-1 ATS run as road dog *Ducks- Kelly is 1-2/1-2 bowls...3-6 / 4-5 bowl run...dogs are 10-3...7 of last 10 bowls UNDER
all games > 37-18 OVER...3-1 /3-1 vs B12...a run of 9-1 ATS away *CONF- P12 is 9-22 ATS as (TD+) bowl favorite....P12 on 9-16 SU/11-14 bowl run B12 11-4 SU / 8-5 vs P12....< 10 pt dog 3-14/4-13 ATS
MOTIVATION *KSU with huge edge here...their bubble was
burst earlier...and they really had little BCS title aspirations when
season began IMO....and haven't been to a BCS bowl since '03.... Ducks are in their 4th st BCS bowl...and their only acceptable finish was the BCS title game ....
**IN addition...HC Kelly already has (supposedly) an interview
scheduled FRIDAY for the HC job with Cleveland Browns...and is leading
guy at Philly too key > players think he is leaving > doesn't really matter if he is or not = distraction in PREPARATION....
MATCH-UP *on the surface it appears UGLY for KSt...as
they got shredded by Baylor (turns out Bears are pretty good tho)...and
of note Bears RB Seastrunk...a key contributor...was the 4th string or
so RB at Oregon in 2011....
So the 1st look here maybe should be the Ducks...because if they can't
cover or tackle the Bears...what are they gonna do here?.... 3 things... *
KSU had a few key injuries (FS/signal caller Zimmerman was out >
replaced by a true FR...Klein off concussion and clearly not himself)
*KSt has already played and done very well vs a similar O style (held OU and WV to 14 and 19 points resp.) *with
extra time to prepare...opposing D's have slowed the Ducks....we
thought they were surely gonna run over slow Ohio St....nope only 17
points and 260 TO.... couldn't run at all vs Auburn....held to 19
points...most thought Wisky couldn't stay up with them either LY...Ducks
were lucky to escape with a W....
This game appears similar to those......Ducks facing a power running game with an excellent running QB KSt is the veteran team with SENIOR leaders on O & D....THIS is the year they have been pointing to.. Ducks
look to be better NEXT year....Wildcats start 9 upperclassmen on O (4
Sr)...and 11 on D (9 Sr)....majority of 2 deep (32/44 are Jrs/Srs)
The majority of Duck 2 deep are Fr or Soph (23/44)....led by a rFR QB...
KEY
here will be can KSU sustain drives by RUNNING the football?...keeping
their D off the field....It appears they should be able to...Duck's
strength is pass D...they gave up way too much on the ground....they
stopped Zona...Fresno and Oreg St.....everybody else ran well (allowed
4.1/146 facing the 60th toughest schedule of rush O's)
Defensively.....can KST get penetration and disrupt timing /rhythym of
the Duck O?....If they cannot...and Mariota is comfortable at the mesh
point/ in the pocket .....this one could get ugly...and KST does not
want to play catch-up here
note > Ducks OL has played very well.....but does rank #115 in TFL allowed
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*I think the Wildcats will be the more dialed-in/focused team
here...and look more like the team we saw early in the year....and keep
this one very close or win outright in a relatively low scoring
game...recall a huge key to winning bowls is turnovers and special team
play.....KSU is #1 in the nation in BOTH
$$$ strong play Kan St +9 *or even better +7 / +116 if available (what I'll do) KSU ML play at +255 worthwhile as small play...
I dont understand how you can say this is going to be a low scoring game....oregon averages 50 points a game and at least 4 times this year they called the dogs off in the first half
Colorado 56-0 at halftime final 70-14
Arizona ST 43-0 at halftime final 43-21
Wash 35-7 at halftime final 56-21
Ark st 50-10 at halftime final 57-34
*indicates BOWL TEAM
Just saying there's no way they call the dogs off in this one look for Oregon to POUR IT ON!!!!!!
OREGON -8.5
OVER 75.5
BIG!!!!!
0
I dont understand how you can say this is going to be a low scoring game....oregon averages 50 points a game and at least 4 times this year they called the dogs off in the first half
Colorado 56-0 at halftime final 70-14
Arizona ST 43-0 at halftime final 43-21
Wash 35-7 at halftime final 56-21
Ark st 50-10 at halftime final 57-34
*indicates BOWL TEAM
Just saying there's no way they call the dogs off in this one look for Oregon to POUR IT ON!!!!!!
Total O D ST FP SOS A&M 7 2 31 85 58 42
OU 5 5 16 38 47 9
VALUE *slight with Aggs...should be 4-5 or so
Travel/SOS/weather/injuries *Aggies 153 miles away...OU 173 *most say OU slightly tougher..but Aggs had LSU..Bama..and Fla
*inside *no key...OU b/u DT Stacy McGee out (15 career starts....TY 14 tack + 1 sack) note > WR Sanders will play....despite drug arrest (attaboy Bob) TRENDS *game - SEC is 8-1 SU / 7-1-1 ATS.....UNDER is 13-4
*OU - Big Game is 7-6 SU/5-8 ATS bowls (3-0/2-1 last 3)...0-6 ATS vs SEC..8-3 UNDER bowls dogs are 9-4 in OU bowls A&M - fav is 5-0 Aggie Bowls....Sumlin 1-2/1-2 bowls...1-5 ATS bowl run note> Heisman winners have lost 11 of last 12 SU...when facing a team that finished strong
note > last 3 times Heisman teams have won....But Cam weak
game....Ingram outta shape (cramping)...RG3 outplayed by K Price MATCH-UP
*1st thing to consider...is the OU rush D...(#97...allowing 4.8/rush
and 183/g)....allowed 458 to WV...252 to Baylor...207 to UTEP...223 to
KSt...201 to Okie St)
in fact vs spread teams (similar to Aggs)...Sooners allowed 131 pts and over ONE MILE of offense...WHAT?
The strength of Sooner D is pass D....top 5 or so...only allowing 9
TD...despite bringing very little pressure....top 4 Sooner
tacklers?....all DB < not good
Aggs are tough enough vs the run...but maybe (vulnerable) vs a top
passing team like OU....La Tech absolutely shredded the Aggs...and they
faced mostly very average QB's OU with significant ST edge...Aggie K Bertolet only 1-6 from 30-39....13-22 overall....
No TO edge...OU -19 / +15....Aggies -20 / +15
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*based on what we saw on the field....very tough to side with Sooners
here...as I don't see how they stop A&M at all...plus we all know
how OU (seems to) play in these big games...
BUT....I don't think Aggs stop OU either..and I like the SR QB vs FR
media darling match-up too....So my lean here is with OU....I'll call
for Aggs to win a very high scoring game .although some value lost (over
opened at 70 > much higher at GT)..Sooners with fair shot at
upset....
$$ solid play OVER.....small play OU +1' 1H
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
Total O D ST FP SOS A&M 7 2 31 85 58 42
OU 5 5 16 38 47 9
VALUE *slight with Aggs...should be 4-5 or so
Travel/SOS/weather/injuries *Aggies 153 miles away...OU 173 *most say OU slightly tougher..but Aggs had LSU..Bama..and Fla
*inside *no key...OU b/u DT Stacy McGee out (15 career starts....TY 14 tack + 1 sack) note > WR Sanders will play....despite drug arrest (attaboy Bob) TRENDS *game - SEC is 8-1 SU / 7-1-1 ATS.....UNDER is 13-4
*OU - Big Game is 7-6 SU/5-8 ATS bowls (3-0/2-1 last 3)...0-6 ATS vs SEC..8-3 UNDER bowls dogs are 9-4 in OU bowls A&M - fav is 5-0 Aggie Bowls....Sumlin 1-2/1-2 bowls...1-5 ATS bowl run note> Heisman winners have lost 11 of last 12 SU...when facing a team that finished strong
note > last 3 times Heisman teams have won....But Cam weak
game....Ingram outta shape (cramping)...RG3 outplayed by K Price MATCH-UP
*1st thing to consider...is the OU rush D...(#97...allowing 4.8/rush
and 183/g)....allowed 458 to WV...252 to Baylor...207 to UTEP...223 to
KSt...201 to Okie St)
in fact vs spread teams (similar to Aggs)...Sooners allowed 131 pts and over ONE MILE of offense...WHAT?
The strength of Sooner D is pass D....top 5 or so...only allowing 9
TD...despite bringing very little pressure....top 4 Sooner
tacklers?....all DB < not good
Aggs are tough enough vs the run...but maybe (vulnerable) vs a top
passing team like OU....La Tech absolutely shredded the Aggs...and they
faced mostly very average QB's OU with significant ST edge...Aggie K Bertolet only 1-6 from 30-39....13-22 overall....
No TO edge...OU -19 / +15....Aggies -20 / +15
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
*based on what we saw on the field....very tough to side with Sooners
here...as I don't see how they stop A&M at all...plus we all know
how OU (seems to) play in these big games...
BUT....I don't think Aggs stop OU either..and I like the SR QB vs FR
media darling match-up too....So my lean here is with OU....I'll call
for Aggs to win a very high scoring game .although some value lost (over
opened at 70 > much higher at GT)..Sooners with fair shot at
upset....
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