8:30 PM Line Betting Trend
Open Current Spread Money O/U
Ala -10.5 -9.5 40% 14% 44%
N Dame 44.5 40.5 60% 86% 56%
PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWERS EARLY. EAST WIND 6-11.KICKOFF TEMP 74
PF PA SU ATS OU TO
ALA 38.5 10.7 12-1 6-7-0 7-5-0 +13
ND 26.8 10.3 12-0 7-5-0 2-10-0 +9
offense defense
RY PA PY PYPC RY RYPA PY PC
A 224.6 5.6 214.5 9.3 79.8 2.5 166.2 6.0
N 202.5 5.0 218.8 7.5 92.4 3.2 194.4 5.7
VALUE *with Irish...line should be 7 or so
SOS/weather/injuries *ND faced tougher schedule
ND - Offense - faced #1 toughest schedule of D's (5th rushing / 15th passing)
Defense - faced #31 toughest O's (19th rushing / 30th passing)
Bama - O - faced #24 D (#28 rushing/ #18 passing)
D - faced #26 O (#27 rushing/ 29th passing)
TRENDS game - SEC is 6-0 SU / ATS...dogs of TD+ are 4-0 ATS
Bama- Saban 7-6/7-6 bowls...3-0/3-0 BCS title games
as DD fav 42-1 SU/ 27-16 ATS ND - Kelly 3-2 SU/ ATS bowls...and 15-5 ATS vs very good teams (75%+ winning)
PERSONNEL *roughly Bama has 10 guys likely drafted by NFL ...Irish 7 (currently draft eligible)
*ND -18/22 starters are UPPERclassmen.....OL st 4 Sr/1 Jr. (only 3/2 deep are Fr/So)
on D...8 backup's are Fr/So ....total of 16 Sr / 4 Fr in 2 deep
*Bama- 15/22 st are upperclassmen...OL st 2 Sr/2 Jr/1 So (bu 3 So/1 Jr / 1 Fr)
on O 13/22 are UNDERclassmen....9 Sr / 7 FR in 2 deep
*INJ _ Irish no key...Bama C Jones bad foot <100%...NG Williams ditto.....prime deep threat WR Bell (could) play
MATCH-UP
*Both teams with very few weaknesses...Irish have one of CFB's toughest
(in awhile) red zone D's (allowed 8 TD in 33 trips) and also one of the
highest defensive yards per point in years (27.8)...so yes we know
Irish will strugle to move it...but not much to suggest Bama just rolls
over N Dame here (as a 10 pt favorite)....
Key will be how effective will Irish rFr QB Golson be?...recall several
times this year he had to be pulled from games....Bama D has been
exposed (somewhat) by running QB's and shown a weakness in
coverage...Irish will have to open the game up and take some risks
here....as their running game not strong enough on it's own....
If Irish can create big plays offensively and move the chains/keeping their D off the field...they can stay in this one
note > Irish red zone O....among nation's worst (27 TD in 58 attempts)
Bama
has one of their strongest rushing attacks in years (see that Georgia
game wow)...QB McCarron much improved (nation's #2 passer)
67%....9.3/att....26 TD/3 INT
note > in terms of efficiency ratings...Irish ST are weak
(#89)....and they make poor use of field position (#68)...Bama #30 and
#7 resp
WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN *Irish HC Kelly
will find a way to get some early points on the board...keeping the game
close for awhile....Bama rushing attack/better QB should be the
difference in a 21-13....24-17 type game
mistakes by Golson being the key to a Bama cover....or not
$ ND +10 ...slightest
lean OVER (total about right)....to me game could go either way....10
points just too many in a low scoring game ...Irish +4' 1H not bad /
then Bama 2H
*note > favorite has covered 9 of last 11 bowls
BOL boys..............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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