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BOWL GUIDE 2016-17

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Quitting!!?  Or kick their @ss for this rare occasion.  The old man was at Cal when backup QB Steve Levy decided (on his own) to get the 4th string RB into the end zone.  Jeff was pissed.

Only video link I could find (full game) is below.  The last 3 minutes are pretty funny.  Herbstreit figures it out during his analysis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpJDGCmWFsU


Tedford........clearly on the UNDER.......................

all the best bowl season TD......should be a great FCS finish too........  
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by achirico2:

Bookie who are your early bowl plays???


IF....only I was a benevolent....light punching Australian zookeeper....and you were a roided out kangaroo that hated dogs.................

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIRT7lf8byw



I somehow....just saw this the other day ha
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Posted: #128
adding a couple stats per ESPN:

10 years: Dogs ATS 172-170 (126 "upsets")
5 years: Home state ATS 28-29

Urban 11-2 ATS bowls, 6-0 at OSU. 39-9 with extra time.
Saban 9-9 bowls ATS
Whittingham 7-2
Peterson, Dabo, Riley 6-3
KSU 1-8 run, 5-12
Rocky L. 3-7
Bobby P. 3-6
Hudspeth, ULL 4-0

lots on Clemson. Justifiably. but hard to argue against Urban's numbers.

 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by Ehartmo:

New here and hoping to do better than my disastrous 2015 (20-20, losing 6 of the first 7 games).  I think I focus too much on the psychology and ignore that some teams may be more motivated but still lack the talent to win (or cover).  Like Old Dominion v. E. Michigan - I'm swayed by how excited EM is to be in a bowl game, especially after their football program was almost scrapped.  Am I wrong to want to take EM and the points?


NO.....not necessarily
  *you''re just looking at MO wrong
  *AND here only looking at one side

IF......I AXED you a few questions about Old D.....could you answer ANY?
  *like question 1.....they have NEVER been to a bowl.....why ain't they gonna be fired up?..........................



let's check that one out............

  Bowl History
       *both games have sailed over...MAC / CUSA split covers
   
1)  MAC vs CUSA?
        *big edge CUSA ( 10-1 SU / 9-2 ATS vs MAC)

2)  MINDSET?
       *BOTH teams bowl virgins > ZERO EDGE
       *both strong finish

3)  LINE VALUE?
      *looks like Old D should be favored by 3'-4 / total about 64-65 > so nothing here

4)   MATCH-UP?
     *OD with the slightly better /  more balanced O...the better D...and #4 in TO (EM #56)
        note EM with a #52 > 64 ST edge

    *OD offense is efficient (#39) but very explosive (#11).....EM defense is #9 vs eff. O's.....including #1 defending big running plays
          $ EM D is great at avoiding poor field position (#11)

   OVERALL.....both should move it.....looks like Old D will have an easier time
       $ EM strength is passing game / QB Roback > OD pass D #38....#13 on passing downs......EM D is weak vs efficient O's like OD (#118)

5)  OTHER STUFF......
   EM maybe faced a tougher conf slate....but OD did win 9 games...ALL by 10 or more
   *EM recall did beat Ohio on the road.....and dominated Wyoming (somehow)
   *EM-  O is much better 2H / D is (much) worse
   *OD- O bout the same each qtr (3Q is by far the best) / D same > 3Q best

6)   GTTH?.......JUST PICK the WINNER
  * that would have to be Old D....might EM cover the 4 or so ?.....sure but in a high scoring BOWL game.....the winner covers at an extremely high %
 
IMO.....a game in the Bahamas......doesn't breed a tough DEFENSIVE struggle
  *so strong lean OVER....slight lean Old D
  **  I would look for the team that is down to come back 2H / strong lean OVER too



FORGET trying to figure out MOTIVATION.....
  *think MINDSET / program direction

WHERE did we wanna be when season began?

PROGRAM....on the RISE......going DOWN.....or treading water?

ARE they DONE?....or is there still unfinished business?

BOL man......................














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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

adding a couple stats per ESPN:

10 years: Dogs ATS 172-170 (126 "upsets")
5 years: Home state ATS 28-29

Urban 11-2 ATS bowls, 6-0 at OSU. 39-9 with extra time.
Saban 9-9 bowls ATS
Whittingham 7-2
Peterson, Dabo, Riley 6-3
KSU 1-8 run, 5-12
Rocky L. 3-7
Bobby P. 3-6
Hudspeth, ULL 4-0

lots on Clemson. Justifiably. but hard to argue against Urban's numbers.



yep tough to bet against Urban no doubt......
 *looks like I'm playing a few of those coaching trends.....thinking about taking Indiana small tho..............
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:


1H unders were always one of my favorite bets. Always loved the comfort of knowing that I would never get screwed by overtime.

I always compared the first half of a game like the early stages of chess. The plays that are called are set up moves for what you will try to do later in the match.

Thanks for the work Bookie


Lets's face it too......
  *those halftime / in-game numbers are a hellluva lot easier to beat

Time restraints......lower betting volume....fewer stats available.....it's not that tough to become MUCH more knowledgeable on 1H / 2H ....quarter tendencies......COACHING strategy.........than the odds-makers........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



yep tough to bet against Urban no doubt......


I would be very disappointed if you bet against me!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



NO.....not necessarily
  *you''re just looking at MO wrong
  *AND here only looking at one side

IF......I AXED you a few questions about Old D.....could you answer ANY?
  *like question 1.....they have NEVER been to a bowl.....why ain't they gonna be fired up?..........................



let's check that one out............

  Bowl History
       *both games have sailed over...MAC / CUSA split covers
   
1)  MAC vs CUSA?
        *big edge CUSA ( 10-1 SU / 9-2 ATS vs MAC)

2)  MINDSET?
       *BOTH teams bowl virgins > ZERO EDGE
       *both strong finish

3)  LINE VALUE?
      *looks like Old D should be favored by 3'-4 / total about 64-65 > so nothing here

4)   MATCH-UP?
     *OD with the slightly better /  more balanced O...the better D...and #4 in TO (EM #56)
        note EM with a #52 > 64 ST edge

    *OD offense is efficient (#39) but very explosive (#11).....EM defense is #9 vs eff. O's.....including #1 defending big running plays
          $ EM D is great at avoiding poor field position (#11)

   OVERALL.....both should move it.....looks like Old D will have an easier time
       $ EM strength is passing game / QB Roback > OD pass D #38....#13 on passing downs......EM D is weak vs efficient O's like OD (#118)

5)  OTHER STUFF......
   EM maybe faced a tougher conf slate....but OD did win 9 games...ALL by 10 or more
   *EM recall did beat Ohio on the road.....and dominated Wyoming (somehow)
   *EM-  O is much better 2H / D is (much) worse
   *OD- O bout the same each qtr (3Q is by far the best) / D same > 3Q best

6)   GTTH?.......JUST PICK the WINNER
  * that would have to be Old D....might EM cover the 4 or so ?.....sure but in a high scoring BOWL game.....the winner covers at an extremely high %
 
IMO.....a game in the Bahamas......doesn't breed a tough DEFENSIVE struggle
  *so strong lean OVER....slight lean Old D
  **  I would look for the team that is down to come back 2H / strong lean OVER too



FORGET trying to figure out MOTIVATION.....
  *think MINDSET / program direction

WHERE did we wanna be when season began?

PROGRAM....on the RISE......going DOWN.....or treading water?

ARE they DONE?....or is there still unfinished business?

BOL man......................



Thanks BA!  Definitely looking into the over! 










 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by Ehartmo:



maybe do this......

BEFORE game starts......have many drinks or equivalent......

WAIT.....for the game to start .....for the BEST wagering opportunity

Old D gets the upper hand early?.....but EM moving ball fine > just making mistakes > pressing maybe.....look to bet EM in-game / you might get 10 or more....or maybe at halftime
  *UNLESS.....Old D is getting a lot of pressure on Roback....I would look for them to comeback

Even better.....EM is up?.....Old D will come back for sure (pretty much).....as they have more weapons

Low scoring 1H?.....2H a slam dunk over maybe
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Posted: #135
In a somewhat surprising move Chubb, Michel, and a few others announced they are RETURNING to Georgia next year.  Issiah McKinzie flunked out, but they will otherwise have all players either coming back next year or playing their last game as a Senior
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

added a few.........



smaller

N Mex  -1 / over 57

New Mexico?......I think they win for sure + game is high scoring for sure......both bets not bad > teaser looks safe................


BA, just wanted to make sure I understood your selection.  Does this mean a two team teaser with New Mexico teased to -1 and the over in that game teased to 57?  I knew the line had dropped on the over but wanted to make sure I was reading it correctly. 

Thanks again man and appreciate your knowledge and wish you the best of luck this bowl season.
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by dkite22:



BA, just wanted to make sure I understood your selection.  Does this mean a two team teaser with New Mexico teased to -1 and the over in that game teased to 57?  I knew the line had dropped on the over but wanted to make sure I was reading it correctly. 

Thanks again man and appreciate your knowledge and wish you the best of luck this bowl season.


yeah thanks again pal.....calling me out on a dumb play.........

Thought the total should be 65+ anyway.....and had gone up from 62
  *weather I guess dropping it to 59 or less wtf.....thought it would go UP

NOTE to whomever is betting that down.....Lobos RUN and should drive the total.....cold shouldn't matter much

Liked BOTH ......NM / OVER.....a bit so what the helll............
  *looks really dumb now since it might drop 6 pts by itself........

Don't mind a same game teaser in CFB sometimes.....or 2 low scoring games with good D's.....low variance teams help too
   *you might notice NFL lines are often 'teaser protected'....CFB not so much.....avoiding 7'....10' pt dogs etc...............

IF......both continue to drop.....I might just parlay both (small)


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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer:

In a somewhat surprising move Chubb, Michel, and a few others announced they are RETURNING to Georgia next year.  Issiah McKinzie flunked out, but they will otherwise have all players either coming back next year or playing their last game as a Senior


good man DB on it.....................
  *might add to it......Kirby / Dawgs NEED a win here.....TCU off TWO HUGE bowl wins....not so much.....their year ended Nov 25 in Austin ......probably 
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Posted: #139
How much you going to parlay them for? 50 cents? $1.00 dollar? Of course I am playing off joke I sent to your inbox.

Before I forget have yourself a safe and happy Holiday Season!

As I do every year, I am flying my immediate family and there families to my paradise here in Puerto Vallarta for the Holidays, so I am really looking forward to the Holiday Season. This is the only time I actually get to see them, since I never go to the U.S anymore unless it is for business purposes. The ice cold beer, the Crown Royal Whiskey and the Tequila Tradicional will be flowing for a 10 day period, so it is party time for me my friend!  
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



maybe do this......

BEFORE game starts......have many drinks or equivalent......



I'm starting early    
 
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Posted: #141
I agree that 2H CFB is the easiest sport to bet... Although I took a beating last weekend on South Dakota State, Army -4.5, and under 5.5 Winnipeg/Calgary NHL.... I felt like the biggest idiot lost over 2k in 12 hours on teams I have literally never watched, straight degenerate gambling.

Anyways, I think the play on the SDST/Houston game was Under 60, but it dropped to 55, and then to 51.5, I was still going to take under when it went to 55, but IDK if there is much value there anymore.

Now, this is not the same Houston team that beat Florida State, they lost 11 starters from last year, and what looks like a great coach in Tom Herman.  They were also underdogs, were highly motivated, and had an extra few weeks to practice. On offense Houston lost two starting Olineman, they lost their number one receiver Demarcus Ayers, who had 8 TD's 97 Rec and 1370 yards. They lost Kenneth Farrow who had 1000 yards and 12 TD's...

Defensively they lost a first round CB who had 3 INT's in the Peach Bowl, in William Jackson III.  They lost Elandon Roberts, who was their defensive captain and American Conference leader in tackles (137 tackles) Adrian Mcdonald who caused 6 turnovers and Trevon Stewart caused 5 turnovers...

So this is not the same Houston team by any means, but they also added Ed Oliver, and players have stepped up.  Houston has been poot on the road this year, but they played really well in both of their big time games.  This team had two very impressive wins against Oklahoma, and Louisville, but their defense has been anything but dominant.  Even though their rush defense is 3rd in FBS and only allow 2.9 YPC they lost  3/5 of their road games, losing badly to SMU, @ Navy, and in the Season Finale 48-44 @ Memphis.   They also might have benefited from a bad call, saving them vs Tulsa.... Aside from Navy, the difference between SMU, Memphis, Tulsa and San Diego State is that  the three American conference teams have a more balanced offense, and an ability to throw the ball.  The only game that Houston had a tough time stopping the run was against Navy, and Steven Nelson (Houston's  leading tackler DNP)   Not to mention Navy run's the triple option.... I keep going back and forth on this game, but I'm trying not to let their Louisville Victory sway my opinion too much.  I think I'l wait until the end of the 1st quarter before I pull the trigger, because there's no telling which version of these teams we will see...

My tip for bowl season- Bet Over in every game where a team runs the triple option...
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

I agree that 2H CFB is the easiest sport to bet... Although I took a beating last weekend on South Dakota State, Army -4.5, and under 5.5 Winnipeg/Calgary NHL.... I felt like the biggest idiot lost over 2k in 12 hours on teams I have literally never watched, straight degenerate gambling.

Anyways, I think the play on the SDST/Houston game was Under 60, but it dropped to 55, and then to 51.5, I was still going to take under when it went to 55, but IDK if there is much value there anymore.

Now, this is not the same Houston team that beat Florida State, they lost 11 starters from last year, and what looks like a great coach in Tom Herman.  They were also underdogs, were highly motivated, and had an extra few weeks to practice. On offense Houston lost two starting Olineman, they lost their number one receiver Demarcus Ayers, who had 8 TD's 97 Rec and 1370 yards. They lost Kenneth Farrow who had 1000 yards and 12 TD's...

Defensively they lost a first round CB who had 3 INT's in the Peach Bowl, in William Jackson III.  They lost Elandon Roberts, who was their defensive captain and American Conference leader in tackles (137 tackles) Adrian Mcdonald who caused 6 turnovers and Trevon Stewart caused 5 turnovers...

So this is not the same Houston team by any means, but they also added Ed Oliver, and players have stepped up.  Houston has been poot on the road this year, but they played really well in both of their big time games.  This team had two very impressive wins against Oklahoma, and Louisville, but their defense has been anything but dominant.  Even though their rush defense is 3rd in FBS and only allow 2.9 YPC they lost  3/5 of their road games, losing badly to SMU, @ Navy, and in the Season Finale 48-44 @ Memphis.   They also might have benefited from a bad call, saving them vs Tulsa.... Aside from Navy, the difference between SMU, Memphis, Tulsa and San Diego State is that  the three American conference teams have a more balanced offense, and an ability to throw the ball.  The only game that Houston had a tough time stopping the run was against Navy, and Steven Nelson (Houston's  leading tackler DNP)   Not to mention Navy run's the triple option.... I keep going back and forth on this game, but I'm trying not to let their Louisville Victory sway my opinion too much.  I think I'l wait until the end of the 1st quarter before I pull the trigger, because there's no telling which version of these teams we will see...

My tip for bowl season- Bet Over in every game where a team runs the triple option...

Is there a list of triple option teams ?
 
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Posted: #143
Excellent write up as usual alopez14325.
Wear a path to the pay window this Bowl Season. You very much deserve this with all the time and effort you put into breaking down games during the College Football Season and sharing the information with us here on Covers!

You also have a safe and happy Holiday Season and a prosperous 2017!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



yeah thanks again pal.....calling me out on a dumb play.........

Thought the total should be 65+ anyway.....and had gone up from 62
  *weather I guess dropping it to 59 or less wtf.....thought it would go UP

NOTE to whomever is betting that down.....Lobos RUN and should drive the total.....cold shouldn't matter much

Liked BOTH ......NM / OVER.....a bit so what the helll............
  *looks really dumb now since it might drop 6 pts by itself........

Don't mind a same game teaser in CFB sometimes.....or 2 low scoring games with good D's.....low variance teams help too
   *you might notice NFL lines are often 'teaser protected'....CFB not so much.....avoiding 7'....10' pt dogs etc...............

IF......both continue to drop.....I might just parlay both (small)


I'm thinking the same thing. I think the public might be overreacting a little too much to the weather. It has almost no effect on a running team. I'm just waiting to see if it makes it to 58. 
 
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Posted: #145
A note from a guy who covers Georgia...



I mostly came out here today to see if the recent 24 hours generated any momentum on the practice field. With the recent announcement of Chubb, Michel, Carter, and Bellamy and the verbal commitment of Isaiah Wilson, it seems like there is an energy there that normally wouldn't be surrounding a 7-5 football team practicing in 40 degree weather. Bowl practices are pretty useless for the media, but it was cool to see the energy out there today. Like Dean and I have preached all year, this team is trending in the right direction.


 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by soxfann1:


Is there a list of triple option teams ?

I can make you one:

1. New Mexico
2. Air Force
3. Navy
4. Georgia Tech
5. Army

Teams that run the RPO:  College's newest version of the option
The Run, Pass, Option, is the latest offense sweeping the nation.  A brain child of Chris Ault, one of the best offensive minds in college football over the past decade:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Tulsa
4. USF
5. Houston
6. Baylor
7. Troy
8. Arkansas State
9. App State
10. K-State
11. USC
12. BYU

Honestly, most college teams run some form of the Run Pass Option, but teams where the QB decides to run more often than the others, in no particular order: 1.USF  2. Clemson 3. Ohio St 4. Oklahoma 5. K-State 6. BYU 7. APP ST
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Excellent write up as usual alopez14325.
Wear a path to the pay window this Bowl Season. You very much deserve this with all the time and effort you put into breaking down games during the College Football Season and sharing the information with us here on Covers!

You also have a safe and happy Holiday Season and a prosperous 2017!

Let's get it... Im hoping to have a hot start, because after last weekend I am feeling like this guy....  

Im probably going to start the game off with a New Mexico Over TT as well as over in that game...


What's the deal with ppl who take Wash St, if Minnesota doesnt play and they get Northern Illinois?  I think Wash St would smoke N Illinois, even though Luke Falk has really missed River Cracraft
 
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Posted: #148
Id recommend a Live bet on James Madison
 
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Posted: #149
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

adding a couple stats per ESPN:

***

Urban 11-2 ATS bowls, 6-0 at OSU. 39-9 with extra time.

***

lots on Clemson. Justifiably. but hard to argue against Urban's numbers.



Before we try to argue for or against Urban's numbers, let's actually look at them! 

Urban is not 6-0 in bowls at OSU, either SU or ATS.  Perhaps start with the fact that this is just his fifth year there.  He did have two "bowls" one year, but that still adds up to five, not six.

And he lost one of those five, as a favorite, against Clemson, so he's not 6-0 in bowls at OSU; he's 4-1.


 
 
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Posted: #150
Hey, I was thinking with the bowl season being kicked off tomorrow, we should get a live in game thread going.... I was trying to sound the alarm that James Madison had some serious value at +7, I started a thread on the regular forum, but I figured everyone on this thread would be much more likely to see it, if I posted it in here..  I dont want to clog BA;s thread up, but I feel like this could be helpful, especially if BA , and some other veterans were to participate. There's an advantage to having multiple people watching multiple games, and announcing what each sports book is offering at the moment.... So much of In game betting is based on timing, should you take that team ASAP, or will you get a more advantageous line by waiting until the other team scores.   If I am watching a game live, I'll post what I am thinking...

This could be helpful because there will surely be a ton of overlap between the bowl games, the NFL game, College and NBA basketball... If you're watching the 2nd half of the New Mexico/UTSA game, you will obviously miss what could be a very telling first Quarter in the SDST/Houston game, 

Alright. the thread is created, now use it fukers...  and if BA post's a live play in here, please share it... I'm just trying to organize information that is more time sensitive, and avoid hijacking BA;s thread... 

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