BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 11

BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 11

LAST WEEK 5-5
YTD 63-42 .. 60%

Wins felt pretty solid FAU/WKY lock, NU struggle vs Neb D but Wildcat D just that reliable . Liberty wow, high five!.. Clem coulda crumbled our way .. SD feeling good early but that SJ run D is scrappy as hell and injured hit/miss starkel and Nash went Eric Dungey on that D.. ran into good Wazzu team woof ... 3 games nixed last week too.. bummer .. 

BUFFALO -10 .. Buff Baby!!!
LIBERTY +14.5  - LIBERTY BOOM.. EPIC ENDING 7-0 FLAMES ON FIRE!!!
NORTHWESTERN -4  - Tough team reliable D.. 
WKY / FAU UNDER 40  - zip-zip half .. 10-6 final..  woop!
STANFORD TT UNDER 20.5  .. solid even w minor sweating but shaw ran out clock for us!
OREGON STATE -1.5 .. Wazzu impressive w out Borghi and many others..woah!
UTAH STATE +15.5 -  good call whomever warned me wow..  
TRUMP ML +178 - .. not graded yet but yeah ..
CLEMSON -3 .. Well that got wild .. 
SDSU -9.5 .. D injures Starkel .. Nash tore them up .. SJ's Run d played great. Nash and that TE wow!

BRIDGE PLAYS 

1. NORTHWESTERN PK

Like Boilers but gotta play cats till there's something not to like about them.. 

2. FLORIDA -16.5

Looking improved.. obvi off big game and Ark is a bit dangerous .. not biggest play .. 

3. CMU -7

Really liked what we got from them vs Ohio.. I liked NIU too.. maybe down the line but Chips looking solid both sides of the ball... hope I can hit NIU down the line if big loss here..  

4. UTAH -6

A fade of UCLA and just confident Utah coaches won't field a disjointed team here .. 

5. STANFORD -8.5

Similar to Utah this is more fade of Colorado after beating up on Bru Crew who I think is in bad shape .. Buffs couldn't put them away okay.. not as worried here then.. Stan off tough ride vs Ducks, looking for a bounce back here at home.. 

6. COASTAL -8

Playin my dudes.. Betting that Coastal's D can stop this Troy O machine .. suspect they are one of the few in the Sun who can .. when Troy can't operate against a D it gets kinda ugly for them and Coastal done gone Postal..  just doing everything right.. 

7. TULSA -1

Fade of SMU mostly .. Hoping Tulsa's O can not make mistakes, let SMU hang tough in this one a-la ECU game.. very gutty team and relying on the D to hold their own especially vs SMU's rush attack.. do that and think Ponies prob have much tougher time lighting it up through the air, maybe just fall apart a-la Cincy .. 

Yeah lotta chalk up top there in the BP's .. not my favorite way to play this stuff but at this point the teams I like are layin points and getting tougher to find quality dogs in my opinion .. maybe matchups just not favoring those for me this week ..

Anyway .. hit some smaller action on the opening lines that don't fit up above in the Bridge plays, just not as confident but something to like for each .. 

Wisco +1.. might hit Wisco bigger with them obvi some uncertainty..
Army +4.5 really love Cadets D but gets tricky when we don't know who the QB/RB's are we have Christiansen/McCoy out a few weeks and notice quite a diff when they aren't in .. maybe check roster but either way don't like much about Tulane..
Rice-1 happy to put some on them again..
Buff-9, yeah playin till they show me they ain't worth it .. 

Good luck!

GL pal 

Tulsa here too. BIG 

Let's get it my man!!

BOL BRIDGE 

Bol 

Respectfully, i disagree with you on the Colorado/Stanford game.  Colorado took full advantage of early UCLA turnovers revealing a bonified running star in Jarek Broussard.  He rushed for 187 yards and three touchdowns ... a running style that makes defenders miss. Sam Noyer exceeded expectations in his 1st quarterback start passing for 257 yards, rushing for 64 yards, no interceptions and a 145 qb rating.  Yes, UCLA moved the ball and will move the ball going forward but Colorado outgained them by almost 50 yards.  Not sure Stanford has an offense that is better than UCLA's but willing to wager that CU will be one of the PAC 12's surprise teams.  Depending on the availability of Stanford's starting qb i thought the line, in this game, would be in the 3 to 5 point range ... my two cents worth.

I respect your perspective, but you can’t make an objective assessment of a Colorado team with a new coach and new coordinators in only one game.  That plus they were playing at altitude where the Buffs traditionally have an advantage.  That plus UCLA is not a good team.   It appears Mils will be back at QB and Stanford is relatively healthy.  I agree with Bridge.  Stanford will win this game by at least 2 scores.  

@altacocker

All opinion respected here brother.. You hit all the concerns I have on the play to me it comes down to Stanford's defense, injury disaster last year and we'll see the run D / DL is a concern .. I hit CU in my UDMLs last week just expecting UCLA's D to be real weak and thought CU just might have an advantage and score a few ... CU definitely exploded, clearly have some ability on O and question now is does that translate to other defenses ... We did see CU's D have a really tough time / awful pass D last year can't say much changed .. I can't point to much on Stanford yet but wouldn't say my expectations are dashed after a tough time vs Oregon, I took Stan team total under last week.. I may have jumped the gun taking the opening line.. kinda figure it drops on CU/Stan performance last week .. would be nice to see it hit 7 and might play again if there's not some other weird news going on .. 

Good luck! 

@Bridge1

 That Stanford v. Oregon game was a 7 point game at half time.  I think if Mills starts, Stanford will be a different team.  I like Stanford minus the chalk.    The line is currently off the board, I guess pending the Mills status.  

good luck this week bridge 

I dunno how you fellas cap these west coast teams less you are from out there . 

I would like to know where everybody is from 

Good luck I’m on opposite of FL, thinking it will be closer than expected. If Ark D can show up I think they cover. Also like the over but didn’t pull yet. BOL Bridge 

@CasaBlanca-

 I'm with ya. I'll be on the spread but, also a  little pizza money on the ML as well. Good luck. Arkansas shouldn't be catching +17.5 against anyone in the SEC not named Alabama. 

Yeah I think UF passing is off the charts though, rush better and that ugly pass d at least doing something now .. think UF has to have a down game, Ark hangs within the points late and that's possible... pretty rough'n'tumble ride last week .. Ark clearly dangerous enough to be dangerous if they catch a team sleeping .. but more thinking Ark has jumped the shark, looked the part in some easier games and UF in the driver seat in division now .... can't let up .. we'll see.. 

BRIDGE PLAY 

8. OREGON -10

Jumping on late, shoulda done at 8 or so but not a big change in the value here. Even with the opt outs Oregon is a legit well put together team that was able to run their offense and the defense still looks really strong reloading with strong recruiting much stronger than elsewhere in the PAC. I think Wash St looked great last week QB hit some great shots but alot of that set up vs a DL that just couldnt stop these guys running all over them .. Shouldn't be the case here and also trusting Oreg. D to not give up easy late scores they do a good job closing games out and did again in week 1 getting the Stan TT to stay under for us. If Oregon can plug the run I'd expect DeLaura to not be on easy street this time. Oregon offense had their qustions and took a minute to get going but once they did things went perfect for them.

There's a concern that Coogs with all the guys out week 1 come back, would monitor what's going on with Max Borghi before going too big here but even still I'm comfortable taking the Ducks in the over TD to 10 point mark. Other concern is Ducks still have alot of new faces and if we see diffuculties extend into this game and/or mistakes then might have trouble .. I'll bet they'll be fine and more likely don't see seemless smooth sailing the Coogs enjoyed last game .. 

Good luck!

UPDATE

4. UTAH -6 - Wager Cancelled

Not sure if this happened at all books but the game moved from Fri to Sat and my wagers were cancelled. Looks like game is still up in the air.. I'm taking a look into whether if it's a go we're looking at potentially gutted units or if it's more/less full roster which is what I was expecting .. I see the line re-appearing in some spots at -3.5 or so now and that does raise those concerns.. My approach is if its a fairly intact roster then I'd fade UCLA again but clearly more risk taking the Utes at this point...

Monitoring the news hoping it looks good, make a play on it again..... anyone have some 411 or a beat on what to expect if the game ends up being a go?.. Trying to figure out if it's the more/less all or nothing roster situation or potentially push to play with shell units .. thx!

Good luck!

BRIDGE PLAY

9. WASHINGTON -13

Similar PAC play here .. trusting the gut and think the stronger teams in the conference are going to show up in and around where our expectations are combined with fading the weaker teams in the conference because I think the drop off could be quite large and this is another such play... Concerns with Wash new coaches, new QB, off a year where offense greatly underperformed, we expected to have an all star cast on defense but suffered a few opt outs .. end of the day think we get quality recruits filling the gaps and where we hoped Oreg State would find something on defense to plug up the run it's clear they have a significant weakness there and fell apart when that got exploited ..

I will count on Wash's D to hold the line also, wouldn't expect a few opt outs on what was a really high ranked D to plummet.. Obvi if there's struggles then could be a victim here but those incredibly scrappy Beavs who were so great in the role of sizable dog last year .. Beavs major losses of Luton (nfl) and the WR (nfl) and from really good OL (at least one nfl i think) were noticed last game and while I give credit to Wash St I think writing's on the wall at least in the early season for the Beavs.. Maybe find value with them as a dog later but looks like a bit of rebuilding needed before we get there because last years team was a really large jump from where they were at and doesn't look like they picked up where they left off ... clearly .. pretty standard unit play on this and other PAC games.. Tough to say Huskies do this or that but I do expect the upper crust of the conference to be far and away better than anyone near the bottom... so not exactly my 1-900-bookie-sniper-head-shot wager of the century on these if you know what I mean, will be happy with 3/4 in this type of play ..  

Continued success my friend, and hope to see you at the pay window to get the party started! 

C.MICHIGAN -7 

Line dropped down under 6 before kickoff so hope you'all hit it again instead of thinking 'Wellll Chips only beat Ohio by 3 then Ohio only beat Akron by 14 and NIU would obviously beat Akron by at least that so mmm yeah have to pass on that' lol...  Def nice winning the boring blowout and just enjoy the MACtion ending on that other one huh guys?!?!?.. Welp... seeya Saturday..  

BRIDGE PLAY 

10. COLORADO STATE +14.5

Okay not quite seeya saturday as I said above .. gunna press the luck with the Rams and think we're getting a bit of value with the 2TD's plus the hook now.. I liked the Rams profile coming into this year but total flop in thier first game with Addazio trying out that Ciento kid at QB which was a surprise since they actually made some good progress last year with Obrien at the helm even with an injury ridden depth chart ... I played Rams last week but left off the BP card since didn't know if Addazio would keep his Ciento experiment going or go with Obrien for The Border War rivarly with Wyo ... if he stayed with Ciento I think folks would start saying he's not the right coach only in a much meaner way after just a couple games lol .. Well Rams paid off .. total 180 after getting kicked around by Fresno state in game 1 huh?.. Wyoming is a real under the radar rivalry and figured they'd be up for that one and got a huge confidence boost heading onto the blue turf.. BSU's conference goals aren't dashed by any means but they did just kinda get their heads kicked in for what was their super bowl so have to see how they bounce back ....

Broncos took this mathcup 31-24 late in November last year when CSU was finally getting their feet under them .. Colin Hill knee injury early on and couple stars were in/out the lineup LY but toward the end of last year they started winning a few games and were competitive with Boise, Wyoming 17-7 and very close to tying up AF with a min left..90 yd pick 6 made it 14 pt loss.. So no reason to not like a confident team with a bit of ret. production and I would expect them to carry that momentum into this year and get a jump with some improvement .... If that's the case I think we also got some value with the line reconciling with that Fresno St loss.. I think we can say Fresno is looking at least improved from last year, like the QB and don't foreget they'd already played a game so while they got the better of the Rams at home I'm more skep projecting that loss into what we think Rams are worth .. Wouldn't have expected much of a drop in value for Boise after playing BYU which is rated 5 or 6 in SP+.. Can't say there's a sure fire concern with them yet but this play def contemplates that they might be a bit overvalued this year and still kinda getting most of their preseason line value and of course they also get max home field value on the Blue Turf .. just seems like a few diff ways the Rams end up realizing their value in this one ..  

Good luck!

good luck 

GL this week Bridge