BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 12

@UGA520

UNLV coach in year 2 now 2 wins LY i think .. gigantic rebuild but good recruiting cycles and trying to build the hype around the program .. make a bowl game had to be the highest achievable goal .. 2 Wins away, Hawaii and Nevada, very good chance to at least lock in eligibility if they don't choke..  and Rebs going from super hot early to super not .. 5 game L streak .. bowl dangling in front of their face for nearly 2 months as they predictably lose to murderers row .. SJSU w their best game, AF, ND, SDSU, Fresno and think the better QB they have got injured .. bad stretch .. QB back last week (and others?) and look MUCH better playing hard vs Fresno, clearly wanted that scalp badly / team hasn't thrown in the towel .. unsure the injury situation but no doubt they're showing up for these last couple games .. 

What's the matchup dictate .. UNLV gets shredded by Haener last week but clearly playing tough .. Fresno was balls to the wall must win w SJSU on their heels for the division .. wasn't a game they were looking past at all ..  I'd also look at when UNLV's better QB was playing and do we just have a misleading power ranking here getting throttled when injuries were piling up by good teams .. before then how'd things go, looks like some pretty good W's and UNT has maybe proven beatable but pretty good offense .. are we sure its not the same team that was catchin fire early playing with some real big motivation? .. 

Total dropped from 59.5 from Circa to 55.5 and it does kinda seem like its begging to be bet over .. looks like there will be some wind kickin up but that's normal for Hawaii .. but have to imagine the money comes in on Haw and the over at some point since its late night hawaii action .. would note that Hawaii kinda keeps playin for 60 mins and has scored very late in some games .. if you like Haw + points I'd maybe wait till halftime think UNLV's best punch comes early could be a big one .. I kinda like the total just want to make sure there's no big surprises, i was a little surprised the total was bet down 4 points ..  good luck!

Great insight. 

@Bridge1

 Tailed ya on T Tech -3.5 Saturday, never a doubt! 

This week I think I’ll join you on Liberty -10. Who would have thought preseason Va Tech would be getting 10..but honestly stick a fork in the Hokies.  Liberty is going in a completely different direction pound for pound. 

if you have time would appreciate your thoughts on USC/UCLA? mad respect Bridge. Encyclopedia Brown as we used to say…

cheers 

@wolfeman3

Good stuff dude ha yeah idk T-Tech is such a heart attack bunch I turned it off and was just glad they pulled it out .. Hope we see a solid throttlin from da Libs w VT just kinda mailing this one in pretty big and significant game for them next week.. Lib without Dae Dae is a bit concerning he was legit very very good but they got a few other guys, that WR Douglas is legit next level and holy smokes were they moving fast last week on offense hope we see that w a bit more success this week .. 

UCLA/USC I was hoping to get UCLA at the Circa line like +3.5 or +3 but it didn't last long .. should be their best game of the year at home and I'm def not betting against them with USC's D being pretty bad .. think USC gets some guys back from injury but their list of guys out over the season was getting really long .. Travis Dye is not a small injury and defense stinks while UCLA's is capable at some things they're not usually giving up big plays gotta drive a bit more on them, but teams can do that .. idk I hit under on them last week vs UA, actually took UA in a little fun end of night fun parlay for da W and hit, seemed like a real look ahead spot .. kinda lean under the massive total 77.5 but don't really want to hold my breath all game .. might hit UCLA but just for fun.. free points are gone and does seem like a bit of a tossup .. good luck. 

Still alive on a few of these from the pre-ssn thread.. as always we had quite a few die suddenly right as the season started or just apparent they weren't up to the job .. adding some discussion below .. GO BG!!! haha .. WOOP!

CONF FUTURES:

TROY SUN 14-1
SO. BAMA  SUN 50-1
OHIO MAC 16-1
B. GREEN MAC 120-1
W.KENTUCKY CUSA 5-1
SAN JOSE STATE MW 25-1 
AIR FORCE MW 5-1 
G-STATE SUN 14-1 
PITT ACC 10-1 
NC STATE ACC 12-1
IOWA STATE B12 25-1 
WASH STATE PAC 100-1 
WASH STATE PAC 150-1 
VIRGINIA TECH ACC 150-1  
UTEP CUSA 33-1 
AKRON MAC 200-1 

CONF FUTURES TALK .. 

Troy .. lookin like the sure thing for the division but ULM @Ark State to close it out or 1 W and a So.Bama loss .. Funny feeling though we have ULM at 4 W's this game and SO.Miss next week for another improbable bowl run .. no way they aren't showing up and ULM QB Chandler Rodgers is a gamer and entirely capable of pulling massive upsets .. you combine that w Troy having had to be ON every game down the stretch since their showdown W vs So.Bama .. Jags been right on their heels since though .. Troy didn't even give guys a break last week vs Army which I was expecting and think that could end up being a HUGE mistake they were stuck in a dog fight all game and 3-4 guys did leave the game early, Martial their star LB w 22 tackles breaking the FBS record .. and was last seen limping off at the end .. Troy D has a dud game on D here and its a real risk their offense can be pretty hit and miss, Army's D is really not good and pinned them down all game, only scored when the situation went supercritical .. obvi not taking Troy in this spot even w the massive motivation and might have ULM in a UDML somewhere .. 

South Bama - ahhh 50-1 boy I wouldn't mind seeing the Troy Boys stumble this week and Jags find themsleves in the conf champ game vs Coastal w out McCall .. clearly a big diff in offensive explosiveness w out that guy .. don't think I'l have to hedge the farm on that one, assuming McCall is still out but guy is such an epic competitor I'd be surprised if he doesn't play in a leg cast .. 

BG / Ohio .. obvi want BG 120-1 to make the champ game and maybe much slimmer champ game odds after that big BG W .. Ohio maybe w out QB Rourke which could be good and awful for us since my understanding is BG needs a W vs Ohio and ALSO a Buff loss to Akr or Kent State .. 3-way tie procedure would actually get Buffalo to the champ game ... man would that stink .. Kent State could  help us but w them out of bowl contention and on the road to buffalo in a win and yer in spot for Buff and they'll know well in advance how big the game is for them playing Kent State days later.. maybe hopes for the BIG SCORE are pinned to this snow storm disruption vs Akr is one of those acts of god to help us if they cancel the game .. of course it also seems like the sorta thing these jokie sportsbooks are writing into their house rules right now to let them terminate all the futures if it suits them .. such a massive score w BG That there's plenty of room to hedge it in multiple games which was the strategy taking these guys .. 

W.Kentucky .. need a UNT loss, its a tough spot they're on a bye and Rice on deck .. best chance to make the game i think is Rice losing this week and its a showdown for them vs UNT w bowl eligibility on the line .. TJ McMahon injured last game is a huge loss, no idea if he'll be back this week or next .. but yeah wouldn't underestimate Rice's determination and think we still got a decent enough shot to at least make the game and get another EPIC showdown in DA DOME .. 

congrats on some great Futures grabs Bridge.... Do you put around 1/4 a unit on the longshots or how does that work? Thanks for all the great info my friend. GL this weekend

Bridge .....i see one of your BP is the UNDER totals in Illinois-Michigan.  I am a big weather thinking guy (LOL) and the way it affects games.  Tomorrow's forecast calls for frigid cold in Ann Arbor and I believe about 20 mph winds.  I know Illinois RB got carted off but I still can see them relying on Defense and playing somewhat conservative.  Just not sure how Harbaugh will play this game given Illy's good defense. However with the winds blowing pretty strong i may play the UNDER as well.  The thing is that it is at 41.5 now - low number already but still thinking of it.  

Thanks for all your thoughts and write-ups.

@BigTymePlayer25

It varies, I don't have the same amount on all of em just look at the risk and reward and make a judgment call .., 

@GMoneyGTown

Yeah glad the wind showed up .. I think Harbaugh maybe takes some shots here maybe one of those trick plays but ILL's D is dangerous and if M has an advantage just running the ball then I think they do that or could potentially be trouble in a spot they don't want trouble .. the hope is if Mich gets traction ILL will still find ways to tighten up in the RZ, Mich isin't shy about just taking the points and doubt they'll be here if they get into those situations .. I wanted it over 42 and got it no idea if its still worth a play .. no need to go wild on it, its already a pretty low total ..  good luck!

BRIDGE PLAYs:
LIBERTY -9.5
GEORGIA -16.5
MICH / ILL UNDER 43.5

SMALLER:
ARMY -8.5
UAB +14.5
TEMPLE +18
WASH STATE -3.5
OKLAHOMA -6.5
VILLE / NC STATE UNDER 48.5
IA.STATE / T-TECH UNDER 48.5
B.GREEN +14.5 
TULSA -12  .. you guys suuuuuck 

SMALLER

ILLINOIS H1 +10

Can't hit this huge obvi Mich might come out on a big tear and ILL might come out totally flat after a huge rough n rugged game last week .. but this team has a good defense and is pretty resilliant .. unsure what the offense is gunna do but I think we get real short time draining plays, clock consuming drives and very possible ILL comes out and gets a score early on .. if they keep their heads on straight they can deliver a punch early on and hang in this number ..

Would def limit any ILL play to early H1 or Q1, ILL needs a W here to have a chance of hanging around and hoping Purdue loses a game .... think we want to avoid ILL's desperation mode and I could see this being so low scoring with Mich burning alot of clock on their possessions that the risk taking sets in fairly early on in H2 .. Mich very good about making teams pay for their desperation mistakes and pretty sure Harbaugh wouldn't mind running it up if he's being gifted easy scores .. that's not what we want when playing these guys in this spot .. I'd also lump the total in this category, would be nothing worse than losing because we have ILL just going for it down the field for a TD and/or Mich getting the ball back on ILL's 30 yd line over and over .. if still looking for a total might be worth checking out H1 also just to avoid this potential situation .. - GOOD LUCK!

Good luck Bridge. I like the Illinois 1st half 

Chase Brown "set to play" .. full practice participant this week .. woah nellie thought he broke his ankle .. unsure if true but that's pretty big for ILL and maybe hurts the total a little but idk could be ILL just doesn't punt so quick .. def a game changer for ILL and maybe inspired performance from everyone since he coulda easily rode off into the NFL if he wanted to after a serious scare last week .. good luck!

@DrStrangelove

Thx Doc yeah I mean don't want to get into that desperation time w ILL leaving the ball in their territory but man o man this line is maybe a little short of a typical ILL/Mich line .. maybe im mis reading the spot here or how good Mich is or something but idk ... doesn't even seem like Mich needs to game plan a resume padding win, OSU on deck just survive by a TD and move on, don't get bang'd up .. on that note ... 

BRIDGE PLAY

ILLINOIS H1 +10

Scratch the 'smaller' got enough on it and just does feel like they can hang in there for 2 quarters .. 

SMALLER

MARYLAND +27

Again just alot of points here and MD is for sure showing up for a huge home game .. OSU struggling week after week with their run game and man you better rest whoever you got its reallllly not a spot to risk anyone here especially your last RB who got hurt the previous week .. can almost see MD pulling a fast one if a couple lucky draws go their way .. idk the status on all the players and the health just this spot is terrible and I think MD seeks some measure of redemption .. recall a few years back MD did pull a big stunner in this spot in '18, that was obvi a few years ago and its easily MD's best shot to hang in a game w these guys since then .. maybe CJ goes on a rampage maybe not but legit redemption spot after B2B very very dismal outtings .. 

Wouldn't hate +16 H1 either, but might want to see if +17 gets there if we get that OSU blowout resume padding money come roaring in at the last minute .. and for sure like that more than playing full game when the margin can obvi really start growing if we get MD making mistakes .. - good luck!

BRIDGE PLAY

ILLINOIS H1 +10 

Man o man got lucky there w the fumble but holy crap couple botched 4th n 1's go, WIDE OPEN receiver drops the ball lol .. ILL maybe up 14-7 if things go a little diff .. safe to say they came to play .. Mich w TE Schoonmaker out, Corum's knee who knows what happens there .. backup RB already out .. ILL looks like they're gunna BATTLE rest of the way, good for us if on that under 43.5 .. good luck!

SMALLER

UNLV TT OVER 33.5

Romp to bowl eligibility starts tonight ..  Run Rebels Run!!!