BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 2

BRIDGE PLAY

N.ILLINOIS +28

Got jabbed in the eye a bit on the last big game spot w GA.State and we didn't really know what we had with them just saw the roster wasn't AS BAD as expected and also obvi playing the spot there ... and end of the day Panthers were over and over in a great spot to score and got shut down over and over 4 times at the 10 yd line 2 of em 2 were at the 1 or 2 yd line and we got 3 points on all those efforts 35-12 needed 1 more fg.. we also got unlucky with the location of a fumble for easy GT TD .. and GT played a pretty solid game considering the spot and all things considered I'd roll the dice on that scenario covering much more often than not .. 

This week we know a little about N.Illinois already the D is defenitiely on the stronger side of what MAC produces and got a good look at Ethan Hampton the heir to Rocky's QB1 spot .. it was just W.Illinois but he looked great 90% shooter nothing ugly w them at all .. Huskies have the same coaches that got them to the MAC Championship when they were the top rushing team in the country and some of the OL's are still there years later and a legit DUDE at RB in Anterio Brown .. all around pretty solid group .. 

ND off biggggest road win I can remember, legit won the game they obvi didn't light it up and it really doesn't feel to me like they have the IT factors on offense, the WR's hit the portal last year .. didn't have one with major experience in the bowl game .. and we know the OL while solid is not game wrecking like in previous editions of the offense .. I do like Reilly Leonard he can squirt for those first downs and just finds a way great in big games and has that again in @Purdue next week w boilers off just an FCS game and a bye and regardless of how good they are they need to respect the revival of this in-state rivalry .. Walters been holding a number of guys out who were dinged up in fall camp making sure everyone is ready for that game .. this just doesn't feel like the spot where Denbrock puts all his weaponry on tape in B2B weeks and go into that one having seen nothing from them, so maybe a bit of a coy offense here .. Besides Purdue ND has Louisville, @GT, FSU, @USC as the only challenges on the schedule .. last game beyond max effort as it basically makes them a shoe-in for the playoff and recall they can't make the top 4 seeds which means they'll have the extra game no matter what and gotta look at that and say just show up 12-0 almost impossible to not be seeded best of the rest .. I think if yer coach you gotta look at these down spots and think just stay healthy and get the win .. develop the depth and protect your starters ... 

GL this week 

@Bridge1

 NIU...astute. 

all those hard nose, blue collar under recruited chicago kids finally get their chance to play in Notre Dame Stadium in a once in a lifetime opportunity. absolute max effort expected from the huskies in this one...

Wesley Beschoener is one tough SOB as OC there. was a DIII head coach and OC at the univ. of south dakota...I know him well. he will have those guys ready in the run game... wont be surprised to see them throw a big hay maker early...

You made a left at the fork when you should have went right.

Grindr is to your right

SMALLER

HEDGE OUT SMU -11.5 (BYU +11.5)

I'm not playing BYU here just noting the hedge out now that the lines have trued back up .. lay'd the pts on this right away on the fan dual look ahead lines and thought the line looked smim for BYU and come to find out I actually really liked what I saw from BYU's offense, LJ Martin their dude RB was questionable to play the opener and we weren't sure what the Coogs were gunna have at QB .. alas, my confusion was realized when I watched some of their game .. I'm not saying SMU won't cover this they might blow them to smithereens, I saw a few plays S.Illinois had that suggested BYU's defense may really staaaank .. I'm already BP'ing the total so no problem releasing this one back into the wild now that the line has been played back up .. I've only hedged out a few of these over the years and don't really keep the records on it but usually get a couple early on .. Notable week 1 last year was Army -8 vs ULM played that in the summer and hedged out when Army didn't look all that promising .. ULM won the game .. Hit Mich -35.5 vs ECU last year, ECU was a total dud but line was massive and I suspected no QB competition to run it up like year before also seemed like Harbaugh wouldn't dial up as much runnign w his QB now that the depth was uncertain behind him .. and think that one ended 30-3 or so t'was the right call .. do what'cha will here I just don't want to hand Ratzlaff a free 11.5 with so much backdoor potential .. also SMU's RB sitch on the radar Wheaton OFY... Rooster Knighton out wk 1 no idea if he's playing .. LJ Johnson is day to day .. if it wasn't for magically finding Brashard Smith Ponies may not have had any of their Ponies in this gm and might be at VERY LOW capacity at RB anyway .. easy call .. takin a pass... 

FUN BET

NEVADA ML/U59 .. 2.64-1

How the heck is Nevada laying any points at home?... I don't care at all its been a few rough games they're playing beyond their wildest dreams .. G.Southern off a rough n tumble home opener vs Boise and long trip into elevation to play Wyoming 2.0 here i mean possible they team up for a big total but 59??? .. . Chubba Purdy maybe ready for this game but maaaan IDK how you not let Lewis stay in command here .. that offense can just drag G.SO's D into the deep end and drown em w 15 play drives in that elevation .. that's what I'd def try to do here keep the O cold and let them make mistakes .. And Nevada D been great the DL bustin up OL's and they have at least 2 really good DB's tested and proven vs SMU in the opener .. I got G.SO RSW Over and this was one of the spots I was sorta counting on a win here but woah buddy nothing sure thing about this spot G.So better have been studyin up on them while workin on Boise but hard to imagine they drew much attn away from their BIIIIG opener.. 

SMALLER

SJSU +5.5 (MGM)

SJSU / AF OVER 46 (BM)

LOW RETURNING PRODUCTION BOWL and while I'd tend to side w AF because Calhoun knows what to do in this situation I can't overlook the WR star power of Nash and Lockhart .. I was realllly surprised both of them stuck around for the coaching change but QB Emmet Brown showed why they got a guy that can get them the ball Nash w 170 yds on 10 receptions last game and I think Lockhart might be the real ace on the team .. generally we've seen AF and other SC's to find quality cover guys and these two will probably be a mismatch .. SJSU D might not be the pushover we expect with Navy Ken taking the helm there and no doubt has some ideas how to play these guys .. my hope is he doesn't play the grind out match he's used to lol .. we did see AF vs Merrimack a real low scoring game, AF has 2nd highest eleveation and a grind it out run game .. but we also saw AF put TD drives together to open the game .. put a fast one together to close out the half and leaned on em late for a late score .. they did miss a FG .. wildly off .. and I don't like that at all .. but note that SJSU's D also gave up 350 yds to Sac State at home even split run/pass and feels like the elevation will probably wear them out here / let AF rip some plays on em .. the key here is for SJSU to push the pace with their pass game they didn't fare as well running the ball and we hope they stick to what works in this gm .. SJSU def in some ML parlays for this week .. good luck!

BRIDGE PLAYS
TEXAS -3.5
NC STATE +7.5
E.CAROLINA +3
N.ILLINOIS +28
SMU/BYU OVER 55.5

SMALLER
**ADD: ARMY +4
CAL +13
SJSU +5.5
CINCY -2.5
IOWA ST +3
TULANE +10
SAM HOU +24
E.MICHIGAN +25.5
SJSU / AF OVER 46
ARMY / FAU UNDER 45.5
NC STATE / TENN OVER 55.5
TULSA / ARK STATE OVER 61.5
BC TT UNDER 17.5 

FUN BET
NEVADA ML/U59 .. 2.64-1
** ADD SJSU ML/O46 .. 4.14-1
** ADD ARMY ML/U42.5 .. 3.77-1

SMALLER

TROY TT OVER 19.5

Memphis D maybe leaps and bounds better and they better be .. I liked what I saw from Goose Crowder and they have a solid RB .. Memp was maybe last in FBS stopping the run last year and they do have a legit DC (from Ohio Bobs) and a boat of xfers in the door .. They have a super inflated spread now with Troy dipping dramatically in SP+ and Memphis getting a 4 points boost for just showing up to an FCS game .. this moved the spread from what woulda been 10 or 11 last week to 18.5 and naturally pushes the TT down .. We know memphis is gunna try to RESUME BOMB some teams this year offensively and the hope is they don't care so much about what Troy does on the other end giving up a few extra points .. we'll see .. good luck!