BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 8

BRIDGE PLAYS: 29-19 YTD
SMALLER: 45-41 YTD

BPs 2-2 .. SM 2-1

BRIDGE PLAYS
TCU -1.5 
AUBURN +16 
MARYLAND -9 
MINNESOTA -3.5 

SMALLER
GA.SOUTHERN +11 
ULL / MARSH UNDER 46.5 
KENT STATE +8 

Sure didn't feel like a more/less tying week .. Minny total dud to kick off the day stepped in a dung pile on that one .. TCU making some real costly mistakes early on getting throttled .. only to come back and cover .. def picked the right offense to handle a big deficit and cover as a fav .. Maryland F'ing A seemed pretty in the bag most of the way just need to get a stop here not make a mistake there .. even Tua Jr getting carted off backup guy whose really not bad finally gets us there only to turn around and give Indy a quick score, wtf .. Not gunna say Auburn coulda won, can't make all those mistakes get throttled and come back .. but man o man they closed the distance quick and think onsides kick and a few other blunders kept the game outta reach but they were def pushing for an equalizer before that very late rain delay .. really needed Ashford to not piss down his leg multiple times running backward.. I can see the ability is there and they clean it up Aub gunna pull a stunner one of these weeks.. don't clean it up and get more innovative losses like this one and LSU etc ..

GA-So baby they are who nobody thought they were lol .. ULL/Marsh slower than slug slime .. didn't see Kent State im sure what I was worried about w them was what we ended up getting .. Toledo just lookin to crush this conference w nobody else really stepping up to challenge them in any way .. Ohio, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Ball State only others w a winning conf record and maybe the only likely challengers .. Toledo prob at least a 10 point fav vs any of them so likely just gunna run off w it .. couple roadies @Buff, @E.Mich seem like the biggest road blocks to a sweep at this point sooo yeah not much lol ..

Glad to see ya back Bridge...I was worried about ya when I saw no Sunday Openers to hammer hahaha. GL this week bro

Let cash some tickets this week Bridge!! Good luck brotha! 

Might bounce a few off you later in the week. Thanks man! 

#GoDawgs

BRIDGE PLAY

TEXAS STATE +3

Don't usually buy points but sitting 2.5 w real inviting odds .. punched it to 3 for just over 110 and think that's still available, might even move to +3 before the game but rather just lock it in now .. Been hitting these guys in that UDML and smaller bucks the last few weeks and man oh so close to another stunner last week vs Troy .. pre-ssn read on them was they actually had something on offense that could pull them out of the trash heap this year .. that got really stymied early when they were just turning the ball over at horrific rates and making mistakes .. we know QB xfer Hatcher is not a dud so if they got that cleaned up could be a surprise as a decent sized dog .. the real surprise though is the defense they can certainly give up big plays and that was more/less the diff last week vs Troy, 1 big play in a 3 pt loss, but you start driving on them and they can make it real tricky to cap it off w scores and very good at getting off the field quickly and getting turnovers .. S.Miss we also know has a defense and lot of their prowess is up front getting pressure and sacks .. Bobs very pass heavy but also a very low sack rate this year w the same group of blockers more/less that was decent LY doing real good work up front albeit to not much avail .. even when S.Miss gets their  sacks they give up a real high comp % high 60's and 70+% .. Bobs are not great running the ball but not horrible either and just seems like an offense that can attack the eagles weak points .. Flip side the matchup is also straight forward S.Miss passing stinks again even took Wilke out last game for like 3rd or 4th QB .. Frank Gore Jr is really the whole offense and while you can get yards on the Bobs run D its a fairly stout unit and outside of Baylor hasn't gotten totally thrashed, JMU did okay but that O is very dynamic triple threat offense w the QB's run ability .. they took App's run game totally off the table and while part of that was from securing such a big early lead there was no reason not to rely on the bread and butter unless the Bobs just made it too unreliable .. 

There is going to be some considerable wind impacting this game and at first glance we think better to have the best run game which makes sense but just my view the problem wind causes is really cornering a team and such an advantage if you have a QB w an arm that can cut thru the wind and get a first down on 3rd and long .. this probably makes S.Miss even more one dimensional and if T-Bobs can make them gotta drive the ball not give up big gashing runs then eventually Bobs can check mate them .. Bobs able to hold it down vs App State pretty well and did get throttled @JMU but lotta that was mistake points the run D wasn't the real problem there .. This is also just the 2nd real home opponent for the Bobs, had FIU, FCS before whipping App State's ass big time... that crowd was small but all the way into the game and rushing the field at the end .. then go on the road and tangle it up hard w Troy as big dogs nearly pull an upset .. I expect a good crowd and good effort, gotta be as much optimism and potential to make a bowl w 3 W's than they've had since .... EVER ...  hope the angles we're looking for are sharp and don't see a bunch of mistakes, really a must W if they are to finally crash a bowl game .. 

@BigTymePlayer25

Yeah its just become clear the closing line value grabs aren't really worth it I've had tons of big movers this year just get throttled and its a huge pain to be ready to rock when those lines drop and then always a few that don't move that favorably too.. just hasn't been worth it .. just seems so much variability I think mostly because so many teams are at least good enough to hang in games makes a pretty high variability and also very easy for books to drop out real sexy looking lines .. so yeah hitting favs early late or ever just been a real death knell and also never seem to find dogs getting too many points early on either ... too much trouble for finding value that doesn't materialize, rather just take my time .. 

I totally understand man...I used to play openers all the time just for CLV or to middle...but it takes a ton of time. Thanks as always for your thoughts on games

SMALLER

MISS STATE +21.5

Its not a good matchup for the B-Dogs and we're on the road and Bama gotta be tired of getting spanked by Saban by now and we just saw Bulldogs get spanked HARD by UK's offense, just incredible it wasn't like 50-17 .. But Bama is off a really hard core stretch of games and one we saw coming pre-ssn .. handled Ark then A&M for what we thought was a sure thing throttling then roadie to Tenn obvi put tons of time into that one and wow what a game .. yeah think we see a big up performance off an L .. but keep in mind Bulldogs can't be throwing in the towel in this spot they win this game they're 3-2 in the SEC w a leg up on bama in the division .. its still a massively long road to the champ game for them but not impossible, could very well catch UGA at home in what looks like a pretty nasty spot for them basically going huge rival UF, Tenn, @Miss St, @UK .. and let's just say if Kirby was ever gunna maybe consider taking a risk that could end in a L well maybe dropping bama off the map if it happens could maybe mitigate some of the heartache of losing .. esp when you know you see Miss State again in the champ game its gunna be a full throttle drubbing .. Miss State w all the great spots this year and they survive Bama and UGA then catch Ole Miss off an FCS game whereas Rebs have a horrific path into that game @LSU, @A&M, BYE, Bama, @Ark then 5 days before the B-Dogs come to town, safe to say Ole Miss likely not in the driver seat for long .. not saying any of that Miss State Miracle ever happens just I would expect their best game to show up this week .. too easy to imagine a Saban Slaughter so gotta be smaller .. buuuut.. let's be fair here Bama -21 vs Texas, Bama -24 vs TAMU, Bama-9 vs Tenn .. how did those work out, coulda .. maybe shoulda .. been 0-3?... Tenn was actually the way more unlikely loss considering the endings of those games I thought .. anyway its def not the time I'd go back to laying over 3 scores w the Tide and think Miss State just off a total dud game which we've seen leach have numerous times gives them a bit of value .. 

SMALLER

NEW MEXICO +11

Fresno State off epic win after coming off epic loss and man what a tricky spot going to Albuquerque .. clearly not a high functioning offense and Rocky really makes passing on them very tricky .. we also have some wind all over the south west that might conveniently miss the Burque area but might not and when they get wind in that area it comes in kickin .. also up at around a mile high, SDSU on deck and that's a must win Aztecs in actually in the hunt and leg up on Frenso if they win that game if you can believe it lol .. MW just a horror show this year ... just a few things to really not like about this spot for the Bulldogs and while there's not much to like about NM outside of their D being at least tricky we should note this team is considerably better than anything they've fielded in years and they get a couple scores on this not fantastic bulldog D then i don't see Fresno covering the diff here .. 10-14 points seems a likely cover to me in what seems like a real low scoring game .. did take this one ML/Under as well for a few fun bucks .. 

GL this week Bridge.  Go get ‘em! 

My favorite play this week is UCLA +6 in a minor/medium upset.   

@Bridge1

 Kent st  $

Couple look ahead lines grabbing now .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

WK 10: TENNESSEE +11.5 @ UGA (FAN)

Grabbed it here and played down to 10 at Caesars too, wouldnt scoff at anyone taking 10 either .. So yeah think Tenn plays that same game at Bama they end up losing, just a bounce of a ball or a penalty or a call goes the other way and Tide ends up sealing it at the end .. but plenty of outcomes coulda also produced a much easier win in at Rocky Top .. I'm basically saying Tenn coulda beat Bama in Tuscaloosa albeit they'd need an extra ball to bounce their way 1 more big drive stopper or even out the turnovers instead of going -1 .. so now to UGA for yet another massive game in a few weeks and main question is.....: Who in their mind is thinking this offense can just be stopped by any defense in CFB this year???? .. there are for sure plenty of ways to kill this spread for us w mistakes and penalties dropped balls etc and also true we haven't realllllly seen Tenn get it done like THAT on the road at least this year .. but holy smokes even if Tenn plays a bad game UGA better be well ahead for me to not feel good about a backdoor cover, and fair to say Kirby really doesn't do his backers any favors late in games pretty much ever  .. I can't call this Tenn team LSU of 2019 because clearly the D while disruptive and pesky at times is just not top 10ish the way the Tigers' was .. but man o man which other team in history of CFB has an offense that coulda bent THAT bama defense over for an entire game? .. Not sure who coulda even done that when bama was unprepared and got surprised let alone in such a sure thing 100% max effort rivalry game where no way Saban & Co were showing up unprepared... think '19 LSU and maybe '20 Bama's covid year offense coulda although let's be fair they were epic but lotta defenses were stricken w covid too .. and think that's it .. Tenn slight edge in total yds but clered 8 yds / play, only did better vs Akron .. that's well over a full y/play better than what Bama did vs the Vols fairly middling power 5 defense .. safe to say this game vs UGA is a sure thing shootout and happy to take 10 or more hopefully let the Hooker pay us for a change lol .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

WK 9: OHIO STATE -10.5 (CZR)

Just a next level offense in every way and the run game is over 6/carry slightly more than that great 2019 team .. passing off the charts as expected and D while not at 2019's epic level hasn't whiffed yet 57% completions Mich State first team to hit 60% and only Ark State over 200 thru the air 6-4 ratio .. Stroud hitting a stride 24-4 w 70% passing .. run D in good form under 3/carry just held Mich State to 7 yards total on 20 carries .. 41-19 in TFL's 14-4 on sacks .. very true that their schedule was easy so far Wisco and Mich State not only projected nowhere near their level but also safe to say both are actual duds and worse than expected .. think we actually just found out those teams are about equal duds after going to OT last week .. Problem w PSU is they're just not anywhere close to next level at anything even the Penn State's D while not incapable can be bent over by Mich's one dimensional offense, elite run game drops 400 yards on them and easy for JJ to fill in the blanks 70% for 145 yds .. for the drubbing that game was shoulda been worse Nitneys only O TD set up by massive big play whiffed coverage pass, not gunna get many freebies like that ..  other TD off a crazy pick from JJ and not likely getting many of those off Stroud .. could def have the same level of luck in this game but OSU just wayyyy too dynamic on O and Nitney's need alot of luck if they wanna keep pace here because their offense really stinks in just about every way mainly the QB and OL not good at all and should get ripped again in this one .. It is the big white out game etc but think OSU is probably a -22 pt fav neutral and think this is at least 2 TD's by kickoff .. 

@glyde69

Yeah I took that for a pinch but too small to post about .. interesting matchup UCLA real good at not giving up the big plays, Oregon very good at big plays ... Bru Crew can stop them and make the ducks drive the ball and we'll see .. fingers xx'd they can get em off the field .. yeah not at all sold ducks walk away easy in this one but big HFA edge for them w seemingly even-ish teams not surprised the line bumped up a little .. Nice call on LSU last week, good luck again bud!

@ILFB

Feel like every game I'm playing is a MAC game, been a kinda frustrating year that way .. that said think I'm pretty much MAC'd out for the year .. good luck if playing them! 

Totally like your -10.5 Buckeye play vs Lions.

But a few corrections; Penn St only offensive td came on heels of Clifford run, not a pass. Lion 3rd quarter long pass completion a very good throw with help from wind, not a whiffed pass coverage. Led to FG, not TD. 

Minny game a whiteout game, Ohio St game not a whiteout. Whiteout's don't mean poo anyways, Lions 9-8 in whiteout games, am sure you know that, others may not. 

Wolverines now #1 team in Big10, Bucs not gonna stand for that! Pummel Iowa??? Think so. Soundly defeat Penn St??  Have to! 

And I don't believe Lions as bad as last Saturday showed. Totally flat in all phases, they're a little better than that. 

On the other hand, they lost a 5* O-lineman Sat, they hope he can return vs Minny. They cannot afford losing any starters on the O-line! 

@UNIMAN

 Ha thanks my memory got mixed up it was Minny with the blown coverage like first drive but yeah you got it huge play and idk think they need a few of those extraordinary plays to make it work .. OSU got that run game going again this year too and its just deadly in every way .. oh i thought all OSU games were white outs so fine with me if its not .. 

Yeah OSU def pummell in this spot too I wanted to grab em like 24 but no chance of that .. think Ryan Day remembers that trip to Iowa last time they played and happy to return the favor .. big time .. 

@Bridge1

 I don't know how you can follow sooo many teams. Me, Big10 and a few others that stick out all I can handle. 

Hats off to ya! 

Has Bridge packed it in for the season? If so it’s okay. Just not as engaged last two weeks. Hope he is okay. 

20 posts in last 14 days not enough for ya????

he has to slow some weeks to stay sane, I used to live this life he’s living so I can speak for him 

go bridge go, a true legend 

BRIDGE PLAY

TEXAS -6.5

Laying more than SP+ says the price zoomed up with expected UT money and speculation on Sanders' injury he played thru last game .. The spot also stinks ATS wise OK.State has an epic ATS record both at home and especially off a loss .. This is also a fairly usual close game between these two w Pokes taking it home in '18 and LY .. close UT wins in '19, 20 .. We also have a strong wind blowing into town .. I don't particularly like this OK.State team Sanders maybe better but UT should be the best D they've faced maybe by quite a bit and even assuming Sanders plays and healthy I don't like the prospects of him scrambling and throwing the ball with an agitating wind blowing would trust the big arm of Ewers much more in these elements and their WR's and for sure their run game .. Pokes D still very stout up front 88 TFL's is massive but they're also giving up almost as many and horns have a decided edge in TFL's dished out vs how many they've succumed to and sanders B2B games well under 50% passing, not a good sign .. Horns run D been really stout as well every game really the whole D has been a huge diff from all those bum teams and have played a few really good offenses so far .. We saw Pokes last week shoulda crushed TCU after landing early short field TD's but Frogs dynamic offense was too much for em and run D totally broke down worst result of the year for the pokes over 5/carry 225 yards ..

Almost never bet on UT but do think they're on a legit next level this year and just seeing way too many wishy washy uncertainties going on w the Pokes and don't think the weather situation helps them at all if they end up being limited on offense .. also not finding toooo many things to like this week and so maybe reaching on this one and end up stepping in crap again w all these ATS and other trends going against me here .. but gunna be square .. go horns .. 

@Bridge1

Also leaning the Whornes. Should be a windy game (25-30 mph winds), which favors Texas running game over the Pokes running game, which is basically Sanders. BOL tomorrow.