BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 8

@OneADayJ

Yeah i hit em twice 10.5 and again at 11 .. I mean if they dud out then they do but under 2 TD's with the bucks is a line I'm taking on pretty much every team outside the top 10 or so at this point .. figured it would move which is why I posted it right after playing .. 

@DrStrangelove

 Yeah exactly what im thinking I mean the wind could certainly hit the horns too, missed FG's bad pass turns to a pick, etc ... just been thinking ever since we saw #sanders4heisman week 1 and defense clearly not there just gunna wait for some spots to hit them .. def got lucky last week w TCU comeback but really after being a little unlucky during the game w a horrible start and those turnovers .. sanders under 50% B2B weeks still able to put up decently big points so let's see what happens with (i think) real legit D and some unfavorable elements .. could def bust here too but idk not finding much to like at this point either too many oddball outcomes .. almost seems like if a team is laying points they're def winning lol .. good luck this week ..  

@robtri

Thx dudes yeah Rob its week 8 and you're in my week 8 thread so thx for the concern, doing fine just hasn't been easy finding stuff worth posting about .... i can confirm there's plenty of stuff that seems like its not worth posting about and think I put quite a few of those up the last few weeks .. good luck .. 

@WahooS

yeah just tough this time of year losing touch with teams .. but this year like holy crap can get all the big closing line value I want and either the value doesn't matter win is outside that margin or just a flat out loss .. i guess TCU last week was an exception but like soooo many flat out busts on big 4 point moves this year bookies id imagine books are like roaring 20's just smokin cigars and poppin champaign every week the way some of these big CLV movers are backfiring .. good luck this week bud!

@Bridge1

 Hey Bridge, trying to pull the trigger on N.M. but it all depends on Haener for me. Have you heard if he's a go or no go? 

REG-SSN WINS RECAP .. 

Maybe put some good news up here for a change huh? .. RSW's so far so good think none are technically dead yet but a few are starting to inch that way ..  8-0 so far and a few more on the cusp look pretty good a few more w i think better than 50/50 shots .. seems almost impossible to have a losing record at this point maybe 14-9-1 would be my most pessimistic horrific final stretch finish ..  18-4-3 seems like the most optimistic ending that would require a bit of luck but not a ton of miracles .. think we do end up with a real landslide ending though 17-6-2 seems very do-able at this point .. we'll see!!! 

REG SSN WINS 
UNLV OVER 3.5 
KANSAS OVER 2 
TROY RSW OVER 5.5 
VANDERBILT OVER 2 
WISCONSIN UNDER 9 
UTAH STATE UNDER 9 
LOUISIANA UNDER 10 
APP STATE UNDER 9.5 
COLORADO UNDER 3.5 
SO ALABAMA OVER 5 
TENNESSEE OVER 7.5 
WASH STATE OVER 4.5 
SMU OVER 6.5 
UTAH OVER 8.5 
PURDUE OVER 7 
COASTAL UNDER 9.5 
AIR FORCE OVER 7.5 
WASH STATE OVER 5.5 
GEORGIA TECH OVER 3 ..  Tie actually seems like a W..
TULSA OVER 5   .. 50/50 shot for a tie? 
UTEP OVER 5.5  .. pretty unlikely ..  
MISSOURI OVER 5   .. Aub L stings  
WYOMING UNDER 5.5   .. 10% shot?.. maybe?..
CLEMSON UNDER 10.5  
COLO STATE OVER 4.5  .. RIP ..

@UGA520

idk just the stuff I mentioned in the write up .. my sense is Haener isin't coming back but if so obvi the play is instantly in trouble .. otherwise just seems like a bad spot for the Bulldogs think we see them a little flat and idk maybe H1 ML doesn't seem all that impossible, NM's defense is a bit tricky even for seasoned passers .. saw a Carson Strong interview about it he was like yeah nothing easy playing against Rocky's D .. so we'll see .. could be super wrong of course .. 

Congrats on the SSN Win Totals bud! That's outstanding! Gotta love cashing those Overs EARLY wooohooo

@BigTymePlayer25

 haha oh yeah def like it .. will update on the conf sooner than later .. couple of those still in the running .. 

SMALLER

UTEP / FAU UNDER 50.5

FAU is off a pretty tough stretch of offenses until last week when they really shut down a very scrappy Rice team and even more held the QB to 35% passing .. kinda sorta figured FAU's D would come around at some point but starting the year w Charlotte, Ohio, Purdue, UCF, N.Texas lotta offense in there and a few teams offense is the only move so kinda just expect points to find a way to get put up .. this UTEP team doesn't do much well but they can be a bit scrappy on defense giving up a fairly decently low yards per play and that's the best attribute of both D's  .. and now seeing a pretty stiff wind likely blowing over El Paso it just doesn't seem like the kinda game we're gunna get big bombs esp w FAU's D which is more like 3 man with coverage being tough to throw into .. Charlotte's fairly capable pass O didn't get much going even before Reynolds was out .. Purdue only landing 28 on them .. UTEP is maybe the least dynamic offense they'll have faced this year .. obvi hope FAU doesn't run wild on O but again on the road in the altitude stiff wind doesnt seem like a spot they light it up big time .. CUSA totals in general pretty much guaranteed to be a smaller play and hoping wind actually has an impact too just all the more reason not to get too cute playing this one .. 

SMALLER

PURDUE +2.5

Saw they're like 1-18 in Madison lol idk yeah guess they could lose and we still cover lol .. idk my view is let's see Wisco actually do it we've been calling Wisco a dud all year and their EPIC pass D just gave up 75% completions vs Mich State .. And saying for a while Purdue with a surprise D this year, Penn St, Cuse, MD, were fairly inneffective against them and Minny was totally shut down so just no reason to give Wisco a huge edge because of their run game .. def don't like the prospect of Mertz passing on 3rd and long against these guys .. We're unsure right now if Charlie Jones is playing or not and obvi really want him in there Wisco pretty much has to plan their entire D around covering him .. but we've seen Purdue down WR's before and they always find good targets .. It also does feel like points could be tough to come by maybe fairly long drives and esp if Chuck Sizzle is out likely not nearly as strong on the pass comps let alone both teams kinda working into some decent defenses .. woulda played that but at 51 idk .. woulda gone under instead if it was mid 50's .. 

Bridge…meant no disrespect. Thought you may be ailing as I sensed something had changed…just a bad card. Glad you are healthy and well. Appreciate what you put out there.

Hey Bridge. Looking sharp on those RSW totals. Love your belief in the Vols, they are looking like a buzz saw to deal with and what a wagon OSU is this year, huh.

BOL, hope those few totals in the balance swing your way.

@robtri

 None taken dude, good luck today!

@BubbaGumpShrimp

Ha thx bud yeah hope its a bubba gump shrimp haul by the end .. tough to put all that RSW money out there in the summer so glad that its looking like it was worth it .. yeah Vols wow no doubt in my mind they could run the table if they get a little lucky .. the real luck would be not facing bama twice but say they lose to UGA in a close one and bama beats UGA or just UGA eeks out a W on em like are they not totally in line for a #4 spot and a rematch of some sort? could be 1 loss Mich too I suppose it does seem like 2 from the SEC or B10 end up getting in again somehow .. and yeah OSU foget'a'bout'it .. them vs Tenn would is one everyone would enjoy .. good luck today bud! 

@Bridge1

 Speaking of those look ahead lines, why is Clem only -9.5 over ND?

SMALLER

CLEMSON TT OVER 31

Was thinking over the 49.5 spot but could def see a scenario with Cuse not really contributing here .. the crux of the play is Cuse's schedule to this point has literally one road game on it .. UCONN .. and list of opponent offensees we see its either not all that strong overall or just one dimensional and kinda skewed toward passing teams with Purdue, UVA .. Ville is dynamic but stopping them is more/less not letting Cunningham run wild .. Ville still did okay on the ground vs them and UVA of all teams found some life on O running as well, 5/carry .. Not in love with Clem's O but they look much better lately and getting Shipley involved and not relying on the pass game alone, DJ also been able to pick up first downs and effective putting drives together .. idk think the combo of a super (DUPER) late first road game after enjoying such massive success in the dome combined with the all around much stronger more dynamic offense and a D that should set Tigers up with decent FP and maybe nab some turnovers is a decent mix of things to like here .. We def want Cuse to score a few points, see game at BC, down spot for Clem = really slow H1 and get it together H2 but game tempo tends to slow and urgency to score fades in such a scenario .. that's maybe the risk here is Cuse in this spot is just totally ineffective but their O is dynamic for sure and I think they should keep the pressure on Clem to not make it a FP chess match .. 

Other things to like we have really solid kickers on both teams and that's huge when you need those couple few extra points .. Cuse also has a crappy punters (again both sides do) and that does tend to help set things up for some scores when you don't have a huge booming punter .. could see Cuse falling behind and we know they can speed things wayyyyy up when they need to if down a few scores and if their clock killing run game becomes ineffective we could see some real quick 3'n outs at some point ... Cuse is also a big surprise this year and at 3-0 in the conf and a shocker here would require Cuse drop 2 conf games down the stretch .. I put 25 on Cuse to win the ACC and it would be AWESOME to see them get into that driver seat .. but yeah idk think the spot is pretty nasty for Cuse, wanted Clem at the SP+ number -9 but no chance we'd see that it came out think 12 or so and barreled its way to 14 for a reason .. my guess is a 38-17 final .. good luck!

@OneADayJ

SP+ has it about 9.5 neutral so like 6ish with just a modest HFA .. we saw Clem dick around at BC and while def not a game you wanna lose its def a game you're happy just getting outta south bend with a W .. I agree looks light but man layin 10 on the road not many teams are doing that at this point .. I also have no idea if ND is improving we've def seen what has to be their worst football of the year so maybe they're improving or get their QB back or found another one, idk .. personally just not keen on it, we're def gunna get ND's best punch they need a national spotlight get it right game and this is def that game .. SP+ says under a TD I'd just wait and see if you can get it around that number .. good luck!

SMALLER

KANSAS TT OVER 23

Maybe wind maybe not idk this team finds a way to get a few scores .. good luck!