Posted:
#1
2010 89-79-5 +206.9 Units
2010 Bowls 18-18 +8.25 Units
2011 16-12 +1.9 Units
Last week was doo doo week. Where teams absolutely shit themselves. AF and ND come to mind. What was up with Penn State playing different QBs every series? Is that a recipe for success? I mean, you see all those National Championship squads with two QBs, right?
This week we finally step up the plays. Spots should start to work out a bit more as the season progresses.
10 Units FSU +3
This game has been circled for a while. Not only for me, but for FSU as well. If you have read the quotes, you know this team is ready for this. This is a chance to return to prominence. They are ranked their highest in the past few years and are ready to make the jump back to the top tier of programs. This is their opportunity and I think they make the most of it.
I banged Oklahoma last year against FSU, but lets be realistic, FSU wasnt ready for it. They werent ready for the speed of the game or the precision with which Oklahoma played. They were shell-shocked and it was over within minutes. This is actually a major reason why I am betting against Oklahoma here.
Oklahoma also just doesnt win out of conference on the road. They are atrocious. I think I have the hungrier team with the better defense. Throw in the home crowd and the hostile environment and I have no idea how you can play anything other than FSU here.
10 Units Clemson -3
We are getting tremendous line value here. This should be near a TD. But since you have public perception taking precedent over reality, I am not going to fight it.
Clemson is younger than they have been the last few years, but I think that is a good thing. They had this stigma hanging over the program that I start to get the feeling is being erased. They have some for real youngsters. They are also much better offensively than they have played, Auburn might be a good cure for that.
But, the bottom line is Auburn is getting by on name recognition here. They burned square bettors last week and it was false hope. This team is not the same squad as last year. They are horribly coached - yep, I said it. They lost their identity with Newton and while Dyer seemed to be getting things going, I just dont think he is enough.
10 Units NIU +17
This was a tough bet to make, as Wisconsin is my National Champions, but come on. Wisconsin doesnt have the defense to cover this #. I mean, I dont think they have the defense to cover 10 against NIU, let alone another TD.
Harnish is for real and if you watch this game there is no doubt in my mind you will be impressed by what this kid brings to the table.
You are always going to be overpaying with Wisconsin. They are a sexy team. They have huge name recognition. I cant think of anything worse than overpaying or paying a premium.
And listen, teams cant just name their score. They have to play 60 minutes of football. NIU has a chance on Saturday and I think they are in a prime spot to give Wisconsin a scare.
10 Units Illy pk
Well, if you read what I wrote this week, this is no surprise. If you followed me last year, this might be a big one. I am fading ASU for the second week in a row. Yikes. My one time darling is now my enemy....
This is just a play against a poorly coached, horribly undisciplined team that I have never seen play a solid 60 minutes without losing focus. There is a reason they dont win on the road out of conference - ever.
I am not a Zook hater. I think he is underrated as a coach. He always has his teams ready for the big games - ask Ohio State.
Betting against the ASU defense is tough, I mean, have you guys seen Burfict? He is the best LB in football. He is also a nutcase though, that is good for a 15 yarder a game.
Illy isnt Death Valley, but that place can get loud and I am not sold on Osweiler on the road here. The travel isnt bad, its a night game. But before they open conference play to have to travel to the middle of Illinois to play a non-conference squad isnt the best spot to be in. Illy isnt expected to win, so I think you see a loose Illy squad impress in front of their home crowd.
10 Units Arizona +10
Listen, if this line doesnt tell you Stanford is on upset watch, I dont know what will. After Zona shits themselves on National TV, the books open them up at 10 against public darling Stanford. Wow. Thats fucking ballsy. I wouldnt want to play it, but if I am trying to stay ahead of the curve, I dont have a choice.
Zona has extra time to prepare and isnt traveling as much as Stanford to start the year. We have repeatedly seen Zona step up at home in big games and this should be no different.
Zona had trouble with the 3-4 and couldnt do much last year against Stanford. After installing it themselves and playing against it in spring practice, I dont think you see a team as shell-shocked as they were last year. They should be able to handle the blitzes a little better.
But, this is a play on a team in a great spot. With extra time to prepare, they have the #6 ranked squad in the country coming in. The crowd will be rocking and Zona is going to be amped. Since football is not played on paper, I have to go with the team with the intangibles in its corner.
A few more to come....just waiting on some lines.
Gl with your wagers. If you have any comments, drop em....
2010 Bowls 18-18 +8.25 Units
2011 16-12 +1.9 Units
Last week was doo doo week. Where teams absolutely shit themselves. AF and ND come to mind. What was up with Penn State playing different QBs every series? Is that a recipe for success? I mean, you see all those National Championship squads with two QBs, right?
This week we finally step up the plays. Spots should start to work out a bit more as the season progresses.
10 Units FSU +3
This game has been circled for a while. Not only for me, but for FSU as well. If you have read the quotes, you know this team is ready for this. This is a chance to return to prominence. They are ranked their highest in the past few years and are ready to make the jump back to the top tier of programs. This is their opportunity and I think they make the most of it.
I banged Oklahoma last year against FSU, but lets be realistic, FSU wasnt ready for it. They werent ready for the speed of the game or the precision with which Oklahoma played. They were shell-shocked and it was over within minutes. This is actually a major reason why I am betting against Oklahoma here.
Oklahoma also just doesnt win out of conference on the road. They are atrocious. I think I have the hungrier team with the better defense. Throw in the home crowd and the hostile environment and I have no idea how you can play anything other than FSU here.
10 Units Clemson -3
We are getting tremendous line value here. This should be near a TD. But since you have public perception taking precedent over reality, I am not going to fight it.
Clemson is younger than they have been the last few years, but I think that is a good thing. They had this stigma hanging over the program that I start to get the feeling is being erased. They have some for real youngsters. They are also much better offensively than they have played, Auburn might be a good cure for that.
But, the bottom line is Auburn is getting by on name recognition here. They burned square bettors last week and it was false hope. This team is not the same squad as last year. They are horribly coached - yep, I said it. They lost their identity with Newton and while Dyer seemed to be getting things going, I just dont think he is enough.
10 Units NIU +17
This was a tough bet to make, as Wisconsin is my National Champions, but come on. Wisconsin doesnt have the defense to cover this #. I mean, I dont think they have the defense to cover 10 against NIU, let alone another TD.
Harnish is for real and if you watch this game there is no doubt in my mind you will be impressed by what this kid brings to the table.
You are always going to be overpaying with Wisconsin. They are a sexy team. They have huge name recognition. I cant think of anything worse than overpaying or paying a premium.
And listen, teams cant just name their score. They have to play 60 minutes of football. NIU has a chance on Saturday and I think they are in a prime spot to give Wisconsin a scare.
10 Units Illy pk
Well, if you read what I wrote this week, this is no surprise. If you followed me last year, this might be a big one. I am fading ASU for the second week in a row. Yikes. My one time darling is now my enemy....
This is just a play against a poorly coached, horribly undisciplined team that I have never seen play a solid 60 minutes without losing focus. There is a reason they dont win on the road out of conference - ever.
I am not a Zook hater. I think he is underrated as a coach. He always has his teams ready for the big games - ask Ohio State.
Betting against the ASU defense is tough, I mean, have you guys seen Burfict? He is the best LB in football. He is also a nutcase though, that is good for a 15 yarder a game.
Illy isnt Death Valley, but that place can get loud and I am not sold on Osweiler on the road here. The travel isnt bad, its a night game. But before they open conference play to have to travel to the middle of Illinois to play a non-conference squad isnt the best spot to be in. Illy isnt expected to win, so I think you see a loose Illy squad impress in front of their home crowd.
10 Units Arizona +10
Listen, if this line doesnt tell you Stanford is on upset watch, I dont know what will. After Zona shits themselves on National TV, the books open them up at 10 against public darling Stanford. Wow. Thats fucking ballsy. I wouldnt want to play it, but if I am trying to stay ahead of the curve, I dont have a choice.
Zona has extra time to prepare and isnt traveling as much as Stanford to start the year. We have repeatedly seen Zona step up at home in big games and this should be no different.
Zona had trouble with the 3-4 and couldnt do much last year against Stanford. After installing it themselves and playing against it in spring practice, I dont think you see a team as shell-shocked as they were last year. They should be able to handle the blitzes a little better.
But, this is a play on a team in a great spot. With extra time to prepare, they have the #6 ranked squad in the country coming in. The crowd will be rocking and Zona is going to be amped. Since football is not played on paper, I have to go with the team with the intangibles in its corner.
A few more to come....just waiting on some lines.
Gl with your wagers. If you have any comments, drop em....
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