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College Football Bowl Selection Record.

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Posted: #176

GL WiseGuy!!  HIT IT HARD TODAY!!!! 

 
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Posted: #177
Quote Originally Posted by ca$hm0ny:

GL WiseGuy!!  HIT IT HARD TODAY!!!! 





Thanks Bud . Good Luck Tonight  
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Posted: #178
Bama is now - 3  - 120  at Betonline  
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Posted: #179
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Bama is now - 3  - 120  at Betonline  





I posted this about 10 minutes before kickoff . Hope
some saw this and at least got Bama at a push.
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Posted: #180



                   WISEGUY36

Helping kama'aina , One Bartender / Foodserver
      at a time to beat their local since 1995.

              " Okole maluna" 
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Posted: #181
THANKS BROTHER FOR POSTING ALL YEAR LONG 

APPRECIATE YOUR TIME 

ENJOY THE OFF SEASON 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #182
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

THANKS BROTHER FOR POSTING ALL YEAR LONG 

APPRECIATE YOUR TIME 

ENJOY THE OFF SEASON 





Sure could use some Bookmaker to hang some
Week 1 lines .


   
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Posted: #183
Congrats on a great year cuz !   Have a great off-season and see you around here in September

 
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Posted: #184
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

Congrats on a great year cuz !   Have a great off-season and see you around here in September





Thanks cuz . Looking forward to it  
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Posted: #185
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:



Record to Date :  20 of 28  =  71 %

Bankroll to Date : 149 % of Original Bankroll


Pending Futures


Bama to win the National Chanpionship @   4 / 1

UGa. to win the National Championship @  25 / 1

This means that similar to last year , I have both sides
of the Championship game at favorable odds. I will not
be making any other wagers on the Championship
game as that would not be productive for me.

How Does this affect my final result ?

Like last year , this season I felt that Bama would win
the N.C. To that end, If Bama wins , I have it set up to
be 35 % more profitable than if Georgia wins.
If Georgia wins , it will be a 22 % increase to bankroll.
Either way , it will be profitable to me.
As I said . I did this same thing last season ( posted
to another forum  ) you can go there to see what I
played and what my strategy is. It is also briefly
described in Post # 3 of this thread.


Bowl Selections ( 2017 )  Core Wagers )

1.  Troy  -  5  - 110     Result :  Troy   50 - 30

2.  FAU    - 16' - 110     Result :   FAU   50  -  3

3.  NcSt.  -   5 - 110     Result :   NcSt  52  - 31

4.  Nwst.  -   6 - 110  Result :   Nwst  24  - 23

5.  Bama    pk - 110     Result :   Bama 24  -   6


Non Core Posted Wagers

1.  FIU  un 50' - 110     Result :   WIN

2.  MSU   +  4' - 110     Result :   MSU  42 - 17
 
3.  Wisc.  + 8  - 135     1st Half ( in game ) WIN

4.  Uga.  + 14  - 115      FG  ( In game )  WIN


Bankroll status as of games thru 1 / 1 / 2018


Av. Cap.


149 % of Original Bankroll


At Risk


0 % of Original Bankroll



Total Bankroll to Date


149 % of Original Bankroll


Well that closes out another Bowl season . All that
remains is to find out how much I win on my futures
wagers.

It's been fun for me , and I tried to keep the forum
informed on how I do this every bowl season. It's all
about managing risk and being selective in the games
wagered on to improve rate of return.



Come Quickly College Football Season   
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #186
Well , Bookmakers , I'm all ready for you 


You can hang some 2018, Week 1 lines any time now.
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Posted: #187
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





One more thing on Capping for the Forum to think
about is that you should be mindful of Item # 3
above . College football continues to evolve in the
ongoing battle between Offensive and Defensive
minds in this sport. I recommend to all to start
learning about and integrating " Advanced
Analytics " into your capping strategy. Know what
stats are telling you and what they do not. College
coaching are using advanced analytics to craft
game plans . Bookmakers use advanced analytics
to establish lines and manage risk. Bettors need to
up their game if their long term goal is to be
profitable. I was fortunate to see the evolution in
CFB over 20 years ago , and crafted my capping
strategy to allow for changes in Scheme , Pace as
well as personnel grading. My goal was to keep up
with change , but to also tailor my methodology to
personalize  matchups to improve my end result.
By making the effort , my results continue to
improve annually.

I have stated on this and another forum that I will
not wager on any matchup that does not offer me a
70 % win probability as measured by my metrics.

Using ' Advanced Analytics " gives me the capability
to make that statement a reality.

The fact is , It is becoming increasingly more difficult
for bettors to make a profit at betting on CFB . The
only way to even the odds is for bettors to keep up
with evolution of the game.

GLTA in 2018     




To better understand this , go to the website of

Championship Analytics Inc. and check it out.

The future of College football continues to evolve .

Make sure that you keep up with it.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





To better understand this , go to the website of

Championship Analytics Inc. and check it out.

The future of College football continues to evolve .

Make sure that you keep up with it.




I bring this up now,  because while still in its infancy
this has the capability to expand into a unique way
to make Coaches and coordinators a whole lot
smarter as well as more competitive. I believe this
can and will expand well beyond down and distance
decisions into play calling and scheme to protect or
expose weakness that could be exploited.

What this means for bettors could very well be a
greater difficulty in quantifying " value " on a wager
at some point in the future unless accounted in a
capping method.

Quantifying net production differential in a matchup
is already complicated by SOS , scheme , pace and
player skill level differential at key positions as well
as other factors. we may have to add this at some
point also.

As a bettor , our focus should always be to find the
value point on any play we wager on. The ability to
accurately measure that value is likely to change
over time due to changes in the way the game is
played........ unless we account for them.

Good Luck to All this coming season  
 
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Posted: #189

For 2018 remember this. When you make a wager ,
consider how much value you are getting at the price
you are paying for it. If you have a way of measuring
that amount of value , It is to your advantage.

Good Luck to All   
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #190
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:


For 2018 remember this. When you make a wager ,
consider how much value you are getting at the price
you are paying for it. If you have a way of measuring
that amount of value , It is to your advantage.

Good Luck to All   




FYI         
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Posted: #191

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

For 2018 remember this. When you make a wager ,consider how much value you are getting at the priceyou are paying for it. If you have a way of measuringthat amount of value , It is to your advantage.Good Luck to All   
FYI

 

Wise, did you just give yourself a handshake?

 

 

That is solid advice though......The hard part is recognizing value when you see it.

 

GL Wise

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:

FYI

 

Wise, did you just give yourself a handshake?

 

 

That is solid advice though......The hard part is recognizing value when you see it.

 

GL Wise


 


No , That was for the Forum , Bud  


Recognizing " Value " is hard . Especially if you do

not have a way to measure it. That's the trick , Bud.

Once you have the ability to measure " Value " on any

given matchup vs the pointspread , the rest is easy.


Good Luck , Bud  

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #193

This was the last Bowl Season that I posted to the Forum , in which I

share some of my philosophy and approach to Sports Betting.

Hopefully some might find it interesting.

Blessings and Good Luck.

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #194

This was the last Bowl Season that I posted to the Forum , in which I

share some of my philosophy and approach to Sports Betting.

Hopefully some might find it interesting.

Blessings and Good Luck.

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #195

Good luck this year Wise!

clover

 
 
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Posted: #196

Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Good luck this year Wise!

 

Thanks  bud, Are you ready for the season yet ? Lotta T. Portal

action this year to deal with. Good Luck to you as well.  peace_5

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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