Before I left on vacation , I invested 100 % my bankroll on bowl games. This is not unusual for me , and I do not recommend this strategy for others , as betting on Bowl games is highly speculative for most . I did this last year as well , and won 67 % of props wagered on , while increasing my bankroll by 52 %.
I have not posted my selections for this season as most were bought on openers and are not available at those prices any longer.
Results of last season are posted on another forum.
Today , I had one " core " wager and that was on Troy , P.S. , M / L as well as MLP's. and also had positions on Boise as well. With these wins , I have the opportunity to " Roll over ' a portion of capital on upcoming games while beginning the process of recovering resources " At risk " . I believe that being selective in the props I wager on is the key to being successful.
My Current position is as follows.
Av. Cap.
5.6 % of Original bankroll At Risk
100.4 % of Original Bankroll
Total Bankroll to date
106 % of Original bankroll
I bring this up for one reason only and that is many like to play on most or all of Bowl games offered. IMO this dramatically reduces ones chances for overall success at betting on Bowl games. I tend to have a few core games that I can wager more on and thus potentially reduce overall risk and provide a more reliable result. Last year , I was very fortunate to select the 2 final playoff teams and acquire them to win at great prices.
BAMA to win the NC @ - 130 , 140 , 180
Clem. to win the NC @ +950 and + 1044.
I had it set up to be 30 % more profitable if Clemson won. That proved to be the correct call. I explain this in detail in the other thread.
Being careful in my selection and avoiding matchups in meaningless games, provided me the opportunity to have a profitable Bowl season. last year.
I believe that selectivity leads to profitability
Good Luck to all this Bowl season.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Before I left on vacation , I invested 100 % my bankroll on bowl games. This is not unusual for me , and I do not recommend this strategy for others , as betting on Bowl games is highly speculative for most . I did this last year as well , and won 67 % of props wagered on , while increasing my bankroll by 52 %.
I have not posted my selections for this season as most were bought on openers and are not available at those prices any longer.
Results of last season are posted on another forum.
Today , I had one " core " wager and that was on Troy , P.S. , M / L as well as MLP's. and also had positions on Boise as well. With these wins , I have the opportunity to " Roll over ' a portion of capital on upcoming games while beginning the process of recovering resources " At risk " . I believe that being selective in the props I wager on is the key to being successful.
My Current position is as follows.
Av. Cap.
5.6 % of Original bankroll At Risk
100.4 % of Original Bankroll
Total Bankroll to date
106 % of Original bankroll
I bring this up for one reason only and that is many like to play on most or all of Bowl games offered. IMO this dramatically reduces ones chances for overall success at betting on Bowl games. I tend to have a few core games that I can wager more on and thus potentially reduce overall risk and provide a more reliable result. Last year , I was very fortunate to select the 2 final playoff teams and acquire them to win at great prices.
BAMA to win the NC @ - 130 , 140 , 180
Clem. to win the NC @ +950 and + 1044.
I had it set up to be 30 % more profitable if Clemson won. That proved to be the correct call. I explain this in detail in the other thread.
Being careful in my selection and avoiding matchups in meaningless games, provided me the opportunity to have a profitable Bowl season. last year.
In Post # 3 , I mentioned that Troy was a " Core wager ". What this means is that I have identified wagers ( 5 this season , 6 last season ) that I feel offer a high probability of success. To that end , all wagers I make this bowl season will be highly correlated to those 5 selections. To be sure last years 6 plays offered a great opportunity , but to be fair , this years selections offer a slightly higher win probability. Even though these plays do not stand out , I have to trust the data and make the plays as they have not let me down in the past.
Hope All have a successful and profitable Bowl season.
Merry Christmas to all
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
In Post # 3 , I mentioned that Troy was a " Core wager ". What this means is that I have identified wagers ( 5 this season , 6 last season ) that I feel offer a high probability of success. To that end , all wagers I make this bowl season will be highly correlated to those 5 selections. To be sure last years 6 plays offered a great opportunity , but to be fair , this years selections offer a slightly higher win probability. Even though these plays do not stand out , I have to trust the data and make the plays as they have not let me down in the past.
Hope All have a successful and profitable Bowl season.
In Post # 3 , I mentioned that Troy was a " Core wager ". What this means is that I have identified wagers ( 5 this season , 6 last season ) that I feel offer a high probability of success. To that end , all wagers I make this bowl season will be highly correlated to those 5 selections. To be sure last years 6 plays offered a great opportunity , but to be fair , this years selections offer a slightly higher win probability. Even though these plays do not stand out , I have to trust the data and make the plays as they have not let me down in the past.
Hope All have a successful and profitable Bowl season.
Merry Christmas to all
Core Wager # 2 is up today : FAU - 16' - 110
I have this laddered with teasers , M/ L' s as well. this should also close out a few of my remaining Troy wagers also. Will post B.R. update at end of day.
2017 Core Wagers
1. Troy - 5' - 110
2. FAU - 16' - 110
3. ( still adding to position )
4. ( still adding to position )
5. Bama pk - 110
GLTA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
In Post # 3 , I mentioned that Troy was a " Core wager ". What this means is that I have identified wagers ( 5 this season , 6 last season ) that I feel offer a high probability of success. To that end , all wagers I make this bowl season will be highly correlated to those 5 selections. To be sure last years 6 plays offered a great opportunity , but to be fair , this years selections offer a slightly higher win probability. Even though these plays do not stand out , I have to trust the data and make the plays as they have not let me down in the past.
Hope All have a successful and profitable Bowl season.
Merry Christmas to all
Core Wager # 2 is up today : FAU - 16' - 110
I have this laddered with teasers , M/ L' s as well. this should also close out a few of my remaining Troy wagers also. Will post B.R. update at end of day.
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: In Post # 3 , I mentioned that Troy was a " Corewager ". What this means is that I have identifiedwagers ( 5 this season , 6 last season ) that I feeloffer a high probability of success. To that end , allwagers I make this bowl season will be highly correlated to those 5 selections. To be sure lastyears 6 plays offered a great opportunity , but to befair , this years selections offer a slightly higher winprobability. Even though these plays do not standout , I have to trust the data and make the plays asthey have not let me down in the past.Hope All have a successful and profitable Bowl season.Merry Christmas to all Core Wager # 2 is up today : FAU - 16' - 110I have this laddered with teasers , M/ L' s as well.this should also close out a few of my remainingTroy wagers also. Will post B.R. update at end of day.2017 Core Wagers1. Troy - 5' - 110 2. FAU - 16' - 1103. ( still adding to position )4. ( still adding to position )5. Bama pk - 110GLTA
Is FAU -16 a teaser line? Or did you find it that low somewhere
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: In Post # 3 , I mentioned that Troy was a " Corewager ". What this means is that I have identifiedwagers ( 5 this season , 6 last season ) that I feeloffer a high probability of success. To that end , allwagers I make this bowl season will be highly correlated to those 5 selections. To be sure lastyears 6 plays offered a great opportunity , but to befair , this years selections offer a slightly higher winprobability. Even though these plays do not standout , I have to trust the data and make the plays asthey have not let me down in the past.Hope All have a successful and profitable Bowl season.Merry Christmas to all Core Wager # 2 is up today : FAU - 16' - 110I have this laddered with teasers , M/ L' s as well.this should also close out a few of my remainingTroy wagers also. Will post B.R. update at end of day.2017 Core Wagers1. Troy - 5' - 110 2. FAU - 16' - 1103. ( still adding to position )4. ( still adding to position )5. Bama pk - 110GLTA
Is FAU -16 a teaser line? Or did you find it that low somewhere
Mele Kalikimaka to you and your Ohana uncle! Nice lines, bol
Mele Kalikimaka to you and your Ohana as well.
I had to bet openers to grab them before I left for da Islands , and got some great numbers. Wait until I post core bets # 3 and # 4 , as those are great #s as well. Hope to have a successful Bowl season again this year.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by Maukaboy:
Mele Kalikimaka to you and your Ohana uncle! Nice lines, bol
Mele Kalikimaka to you and your Ohana as well.
I had to bet openers to grab them before I left for da Islands , and got some great numbers. Wait until I post core bets # 3 and # 4 , as those are great #s as well. Hope to have a successful Bowl season again this year.
Mahalos bradda! Hope that you had a good time on your vacation... I'll be on vacation as well going to the Philippines for the world slasher, hope to make some extra before I leave. Aloha
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Mahalos bradda! Hope that you had a good time on your vacation... I'll be on vacation as well going to the Philippines for the world slasher, hope to make some extra before I leave. Aloha
Mahalos bradda! Hope that you had a good time on your vacation... I'll be on vacation as well going to the Philippines for the world slasher, hope to make some extra before I leave. Aloha
Enjoy your vacation ,. bud
Aloha
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Maukaboy:
Mahalos bradda! Hope that you had a good time on your vacation... I'll be on vacation as well going to the Philippines for the world slasher, hope to make some extra before I leave. Aloha
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