I mis-hit this one right off the tee over the summer by thinking the Rams were not going to start Nick Stevens in this game. Everything is pointing to a Nick Stevens start, and I am stuck with a Colorado State +9 ticket from earlier in the summer.
One of the main perspectives on the Colorado/Colorado State game is that both teams "suck," and since it is a rivalry game, it is best just to take the dog and most likely cash the ticket. This year, you can throw that strategy out the window. Both teams are still unimpressive, but for the first time in I don't know how long, there is a clear difference in talent level. This will easily be the worst Colorado State team that they have had in the last five years, and this will clearly be the best CU team that they have had in five years.
The word I am getting out of CSU is that Nick Stevens will start at QB. That right there tells me all I need to know about which side I want to be on. I hate being on the wrong side of the turnover margin, and backing Colorado State, and a QB who has a knack for turning the ball over at the worst possible time, isn't in my bankroll's best interest.
One of the largest concerns for me if I am backing CSU is how are they going to move the ball. The loss of Higgins at WR is going to be huge. But the losses that I think hurt more are the losses of Joe Hansley and Kivon Cartwright. Both were never spectacular, but they always seemed to be in the right place at the right time. When it was third and seven, they were the ones that Stevens sought out. Now, Colorado State is replacing its top four receivers from last year, and this screams one-dimensional offense. On the bright side, CSU is strong at running back, but in this game, I give the edge to the Colorado D-Line over the CSU O-line. I look for the Rams to have a tough time moving the ball and sustaining drives.
On the opposite side, I think CU is going to have its most efficient offense since the Gary Barnett era. For once, CU should be able to pound the ball, as they are loaded at running back. They should be able to rotate in at least three solid running backs, all of which are physical. What I am even more high on with the Buffs though, is the passing game. If Shay Fields can stay healthy, I think he is one of the best receivers in the Pac 12. More importantly, there is no one in the CSU secondary that can cover him. Additionally, if you have seen enough of these CSU/CU games, you know that the Rams are great at completely leaving the best receiver for CU wide open on multiple occasions. When Paul Richardson was still with the Buffs, he went uncovered twice in one game.
Colorado's O-Line is going to take a major step forward this year. I look for a ton of the rushing yards in this game to come from Colorado running behind Jeromy Irwin on the left side (it sounds like he is good to go after an ACL last year). There will be a significant size advantage for the Buffs on the left side of the line, and they will exploit it.
Even in missing the -7.5 that was dangled out there for a bit, I am confident that I have a strategy to cover my bases. I feel that even if this game is close going into the 4th quarter, Nick Stevens will revert back to his usual ways and toss a slant pass right into triple coverage. The Buffs are too big up front, Sefo Liufau appears to be healthy, and most importantly, hungry, and CU should be able to roll in this game.
7 point teaser - CU -1.5/Stanford -7.5/Indiana/FIU over 54/Fresno over 55.
Straight bet FIU moneyline +285, Stanford -14.5.
KSU's offensive pace will play right into Stanford's hands. This one looks like the Stanford/Iowa game all over again. 
) thought I would put my $0.02 out there as well...
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