I missed some games that I will omit going forward. I am transparent to say I will most always have 10+ plays and there are no limits. I do this because there are lots of situations and lots of teams that shouldn’t be in the line or situation they are currently playing in. I want a diverse list that the bookies will need. Ride with the bookies if it makes sense, and go opposite of what my mind “thinks” is correct.
I think some of these are similar every season and only a few exceed these expectations. Well only a few team stop up and out every year so that’s the minority.
If it plays out the way it usually does only the best teams beat me.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I missed some games that I will omit going forward. I am transparent to say I will most always have 10+ plays and there are no limits. I do this because there are lots of situations and lots of teams that shouldn’t be in the line or situation they are currently playing in. I want a diverse list that the bookies will need. Ride with the bookies if it makes sense, and go opposite of what my mind “thinks” is correct.
I think some of these are similar every season and only a few exceed these expectations. Well only a few team stop up and out every year so that’s the minority.
If it plays out the way it usually does only the best teams beat me.
By kickoff this will be a multi unit play. I am taking an opening line stab at this and will add. This probably is the best line available all week, but it’s hard for me to guess the momentum Army has at the moment.
This is not a chase. Sometimes I do end up fading a team I was fading the previous week. Again a lot of this is because what they have achieved and the public perception in the line.
It’s based upon data and some teams repeat. I do love it most often if I get a repeat team. Remember Army covered last week when the consensus was over 75%. The books have taken Army away this week.
It not a fade the public it is fade the line. In my opinion -13 here is ridiculous. In my opinion it will be closer to -10 by kick off but I don’t think the line move will impact the spread outcome.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Temple +13.
By kickoff this will be a multi unit play. I am taking an opening line stab at this and will add. This probably is the best line available all week, but it’s hard for me to guess the momentum Army has at the moment.
This is not a chase. Sometimes I do end up fading a team I was fading the previous week. Again a lot of this is because what they have achieved and the public perception in the line.
It’s based upon data and some teams repeat. I do love it most often if I get a repeat team. Remember Army covered last week when the consensus was over 75%. The books have taken Army away this week.
It not a fade the public it is fade the line. In my opinion -13 here is ridiculous. In my opinion it will be closer to -10 by kick off but I don’t think the line move will impact the spread outcome.
No data yet but I’m looking to find it on a play for NC St -7 I did lock in a play because I think the line will move higher. If I don’t find what I need I might back out.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
No data yet but I’m looking to find it on a play for NC St -7 I did lock in a play because I think the line will move higher. If I don’t find what I need I might back out.
Wyoming -3 I know they’re trash but home dog trash is okay against the trash team away favorites. It’s fools gold to think that Air Force can be trusted to win this game.
Washington St. they rallied last week to win but they took a lot of people money in the process. most often bettors don’t trust teams that took their money if they are dogs and appear to be bad because they are not the favorite. I love teams like wash st and their WB as I saw has talent. Boise isn’t the old Boise. This looks to be close!
my final list will most likely be different lines because I post current lines so I don’t get extra questions because the line is stale.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1
Other games
Sam Houston +8
Kent St +13.5
Fresno +4
Wyoming -3 I know they’re trash but home dog trash is okay against the trash team away favorites. It’s fools gold to think that Air Force can be trusted to win this game.
Washington St. they rallied last week to win but they took a lot of people money in the process. most often bettors don’t trust teams that took their money if they are dogs and appear to be bad because they are not the favorite. I love teams like wash st and their WB as I saw has talent. Boise isn’t the old Boise. This looks to be close!
my final list will most likely be different lines because I post current lines so I don’t get extra questions because the line is stale.
A note about E.Mich In week 1 they were away dogs to UMass and 4-0 ATS on the season.
Kent is 5-19 ATS last 24 games.
Kent is off playing back to back outstanding highly ranked teams in Penn St and Tennessee. Combined scores of 0-127 in those games. The other FBS game was AT Pitt 24-55 loss in that one.
I think the books are tired of getting squashed against Kent.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1
A note about E.Mich In week 1 they were away dogs to UMass and 4-0 ATS on the season.
Kent is 5-19 ATS last 24 games.
Kent is off playing back to back outstanding highly ranked teams in Penn St and Tennessee. Combined scores of 0-127 in those games. The other FBS game was AT Pitt 24-55 loss in that one.
I think the books are tired of getting squashed against Kent.
week < 10 and p:margin < -6 and rank = None and line <8 and p:line <= 14 and p:site != away and season > 2012 and o:PRSW > 3 and 3 > ats streak > -4 and p:points > 6 and PRSW < 9 and site!= home and D and ono:PRSW<5 and total<=58
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
week < 10 and p:margin < -6 and rank = None and line <8 and p:line <= 14 and p:site != away and season > 2012 and o:PRSW > 3 and 3 > ats streak > -4 and p:points > 6 and PRSW < 9 and site!= home and D and ono:PRSW<5 and total<=58
As far as line moves? Do you have any experience with line moves? Usually what I have noticed the team that has the better chance the early bird gets the worm. No matter favorite or dog. The lines maker givith and as the week progresses he taketh away. The only way to combat this (sometimes I do) dabble smaller units all week.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
@Last2thirst
Georgia: Its the data and I searched it
As far as line moves? Do you have any experience with line moves? Usually what I have noticed the team that has the better chance the early bird gets the worm. No matter favorite or dog. The lines maker givith and as the week progresses he taketh away. The only way to combat this (sometimes I do) dabble smaller units all week.
@Last2thirst Georgia: Its the data and I searched it As far as line moves? Do you have any experience with line moves? Usually what I have noticed the team that has the better chance the early bird gets the worm. No matter favorite or dog. The lines maker givith and as the week progresses he taketh away. The only way to combat this (sometimes I do) dabble smaller units all week.
Yes, I track line movement and have found that some lines go up for the dog side as the week begins and up to Friday and then you see the public really begin to kick the tires on slightly inflated spreads....not every week, but many (photograph memory I have pretty much) and look at lines 3x a day most weeks, although this week I am working more but can look on breaks
For instance....this week (dogs rising)... Washington +3 now....Colorado +14.5...Maryland +7...Sam H +8.5 ... App St +3.5.... FSU +5.5 .....Washington St +7
(dogs dropping) > Okie St....Arkansas....Fresno...Minnesota....UCLA.... San Diego St.... Alabama.....Arizona
I am eyeing your focus on Wyoming as they tend to have a good home team as the season progresses and the weather changes....AF not good this year adjusting to new blocking rules and Wyoming was catching money last week vs my North Texas TEASER key who ultimately stomped Wyoming who was on the road
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
@Last2thirst Georgia: Its the data and I searched it As far as line moves? Do you have any experience with line moves? Usually what I have noticed the team that has the better chance the early bird gets the worm. No matter favorite or dog. The lines maker givith and as the week progresses he taketh away. The only way to combat this (sometimes I do) dabble smaller units all week.
Yes, I track line movement and have found that some lines go up for the dog side as the week begins and up to Friday and then you see the public really begin to kick the tires on slightly inflated spreads....not every week, but many (photograph memory I have pretty much) and look at lines 3x a day most weeks, although this week I am working more but can look on breaks
For instance....this week (dogs rising)... Washington +3 now....Colorado +14.5...Maryland +7...Sam H +8.5 ... App St +3.5.... FSU +5.5 .....Washington St +7
(dogs dropping) > Okie St....Arkansas....Fresno...Minnesota....UCLA.... San Diego St.... Alabama.....Arizona
I am eyeing your focus on Wyoming as they tend to have a good home team as the season progresses and the weather changes....AF not good this year adjusting to new blocking rules and Wyoming was catching money last week vs my North Texas TEASER key who ultimately stomped Wyoming who was on the road
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