@DrStrangelove I love the way this works and it appears to be effective. I’m going to tail this week. Been playing these games for 38 years now and you have a system that works with my main belief in picking winners. Who runs the ball and who stops the run. It is why the SEC is so dominant. They have big boys up front on both sides. This system kind of follows that thought process adding in value with getting points plus playing at home.
Yep, what separates the SEC from the other conferences is their ability to recruit the dominant defensive linemen that can stop the run. The better you can stop the run, the more you can control the tempo of the game. That's why the running dogs aren't some trendy system. You actually have to be able to effeciently run the ball and be able to stop the run to control the the game to be a consistent winner in college football. And what I meran by effeciently run the ball doesn't always mean being able to run for 200 ypg. You can run for 150 ypg and still be a good rushing team if you average over 5 ypc. And that's what a lot of the running dogs formula is based on.
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Quote Originally Posted by Martelxo92:
@DrStrangelove I love the way this works and it appears to be effective. I’m going to tail this week. Been playing these games for 38 years now and you have a system that works with my main belief in picking winners. Who runs the ball and who stops the run. It is why the SEC is so dominant. They have big boys up front on both sides. This system kind of follows that thought process adding in value with getting points plus playing at home.
Yep, what separates the SEC from the other conferences is their ability to recruit the dominant defensive linemen that can stop the run. The better you can stop the run, the more you can control the tempo of the game. That's why the running dogs aren't some trendy system. You actually have to be able to effeciently run the ball and be able to stop the run to control the the game to be a consistent winner in college football. And what I meran by effeciently run the ball doesn't always mean being able to run for 200 ypg. You can run for 150 ypg and still be a good rushing team if you average over 5 ypc. And that's what a lot of the running dogs formula is based on.
Here is my list of short favorites that would have been the running dogs if they had qualified:
Pitt -2.5 (D)(H) (I've already played Pitt)
Navy -3 (H) (Better ppg D)
Air Force -3.5 (H)(D)
Boise St. -3 (D)
Kentucky -1.5 (D)
I'm probably going to be on Air Force despite their starting QB more than likely being out. I'm also looking to play Kentucky. Still shopping for the best lines.
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Here is my list of short favorites that would have been the running dogs if they had qualified:
Pitt -2.5 (D)(H) (I've already played Pitt)
Navy -3 (H) (Better ppg D)
Air Force -3.5 (H)(D)
Boise St. -3 (D)
Kentucky -1.5 (D)
I'm probably going to be on Air Force despite their starting QB more than likely being out. I'm also looking to play Kentucky. Still shopping for the best lines.
me 2 on A Force. big. UNLV opponents record 32-50 SU.
AIR F was #1 in rushig now #2 and AF D is top 10 stopping the run. As far as the AF QB he averages 3.7 completions per game. UNLV has to figure out how to beat this fundamentally sound team on both sides of the ball and because the line is only +3 they pretty much have to win or get a decent lead and hang on.
AF last 2 BS results should have them ready to go in a home game. AF back on their own home field this week.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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@DrStrangelove
me 2 on A Force. big. UNLV opponents record 32-50 SU.
AIR F was #1 in rushig now #2 and AF D is top 10 stopping the run. As far as the AF QB he averages 3.7 completions per game. UNLV has to figure out how to beat this fundamentally sound team on both sides of the ball and because the line is only +3 they pretty much have to win or get a decent lead and hang on.
AF last 2 BS results should have them ready to go in a home game. AF back on their own home field this week.
One thing is for sure, Air Force should be a touch more motivated this week with the conference on the line. Last week I think they were still in total shock after that Army upset. Those kinds of losses are much more devasating than your average loss. These military schools live and die by beating each other for the coveted Commander In Chief's trophy. I'm probably going to pull the trigger on AF, I'm just waiting to see if it possibly goes under 3. The injuries are a concern. Not only to the QB, but to a couple of their WR's. It's makes them a little more one-dimensional if they can't play.
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@spottie2935
One thing is for sure, Air Force should be a touch more motivated this week with the conference on the line. Last week I think they were still in total shock after that Army upset. Those kinds of losses are much more devasating than your average loss. These military schools live and die by beating each other for the coveted Commander In Chief's trophy. I'm probably going to pull the trigger on AF, I'm just waiting to see if it possibly goes under 3. The injuries are a concern. Not only to the QB, but to a couple of their WR's. It's makes them a little more one-dimensional if they can't play.
@DrStrangelove Cincy +6.5 still good or buy the half point and push it to 7? thanks
6.5 is right on my power rating number. I know Cincy are the running dogs so I listed them. But I have a few problems with Cincy in this spot. One thing is they just came off a big road win vs Houston, and now have to go back out on the road again against a better team. While a 6-4 WV team is coming off an embarassing lopsided loss to OU and now goes back home for Seniors Day. Another problem is, although officially Cincy is now a member of a P5 conference this is still basically a G5 vs P5 matchup. These four new G5 newcomers to the Big 12 haven't fared very well this season. Their only three wins I can think of off the top of my head is BYU's upset of Texas Tech, Houston's upset of WV and UCF's win over OSU. All of those games were played at home.
As far as the running dogs go, I can tell you that over the years the G5 vs P5 angle has been a weakness in this system. Despite how well these teams have done at another level to earn them running dogs status, they are still moving up in class to usually a better level of football. The only G5 vs P5 running dog that I've had this season was a couple weeks back when Jax St covered against South Carolina. But we all know that Jax St is a pretty good and well-coached G5 program while a 4-6 South Carolina has struggled all year. I wouldn't exactly say WV has struggled this year. They've exceeded expectations (preseason win total was 4) and earned a bowl bid, and have also taken care of the other newcomers UCF, BYU in pretty easy fashion. I'm not saying Cincy won't be competetive here, but we should know pretty fast by how well they'll be able to run the ball against WV's D.
By the way, UCF is in the same boat this week going to Texas Tech. But one thing I do like about them here is Plumlee is a hell of a QB when he's healthy. And with a couple games now under his belt after coming off an injury, he's starting to look like his old self. I think that could be an interesting game. Especially since UCF are the running dogs. And OU goes to BYU Saturday. Although BYU is terrible this season and I fully expect an OU win, I don't like the early start (9AM Oklahoma time) in altitude. Plus OU hasn't done well on the road this season. I have a sneakin' suspicion this is going to be a little closer game than the -24.5. My number is just 18.5. As far as Cincy, if I spend the money on the game I would want to have 7. Good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by Bet15:
@DrStrangelove Cincy +6.5 still good or buy the half point and push it to 7? thanks
6.5 is right on my power rating number. I know Cincy are the running dogs so I listed them. But I have a few problems with Cincy in this spot. One thing is they just came off a big road win vs Houston, and now have to go back out on the road again against a better team. While a 6-4 WV team is coming off an embarassing lopsided loss to OU and now goes back home for Seniors Day. Another problem is, although officially Cincy is now a member of a P5 conference this is still basically a G5 vs P5 matchup. These four new G5 newcomers to the Big 12 haven't fared very well this season. Their only three wins I can think of off the top of my head is BYU's upset of Texas Tech, Houston's upset of WV and UCF's win over OSU. All of those games were played at home.
As far as the running dogs go, I can tell you that over the years the G5 vs P5 angle has been a weakness in this system. Despite how well these teams have done at another level to earn them running dogs status, they are still moving up in class to usually a better level of football. The only G5 vs P5 running dog that I've had this season was a couple weeks back when Jax St covered against South Carolina. But we all know that Jax St is a pretty good and well-coached G5 program while a 4-6 South Carolina has struggled all year. I wouldn't exactly say WV has struggled this year. They've exceeded expectations (preseason win total was 4) and earned a bowl bid, and have also taken care of the other newcomers UCF, BYU in pretty easy fashion. I'm not saying Cincy won't be competetive here, but we should know pretty fast by how well they'll be able to run the ball against WV's D.
By the way, UCF is in the same boat this week going to Texas Tech. But one thing I do like about them here is Plumlee is a hell of a QB when he's healthy. And with a couple games now under his belt after coming off an injury, he's starting to look like his old self. I think that could be an interesting game. Especially since UCF are the running dogs. And OU goes to BYU Saturday. Although BYU is terrible this season and I fully expect an OU win, I don't like the early start (9AM Oklahoma time) in altitude. Plus OU hasn't done well on the road this season. I have a sneakin' suspicion this is going to be a little closer game than the -24.5. My number is just 18.5. As far as Cincy, if I spend the money on the game I would want to have 7. Good luck!
My guy just put his lines out and he has Purdue -3 and Oregon State -2. Would you still bet those as running dogs since the opening line was a dog or does this play now cancel.
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My guy just put his lines out and he has Purdue -3 and Oregon State -2. Would you still bet those as running dogs since the opening line was a dog or does this play now cancel.
My guy just put his lines out and he has Purdue -3 and Oregon State -2. Would you still bet those as running dogs since the opening line was a dog or does this play now cancel.
Yeah, that's a tough one. And the reason I try to get these running dogs early, because 90% of the time the lines move with me instead of against me. I guess common sense says Oregon St would have a better chance at covering since the line is under a FG. I would probably still play it small, although to me, being made the favorite instead of the dog kind of changes the dynamic of the game. OSU is now the hunted. With Purdue the line has moved a full 5 points to a FG. That's a big movement, so I doubt I would play it. Especially given the fact that Purdue is a 3-7 team having to cover on the road. A team who has given up 102 points in the last 3 games! I much rather see the Boilermakers in the doggie role than the faves... Good luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by Martelxo92:
My guy just put his lines out and he has Purdue -3 and Oregon State -2. Would you still bet those as running dogs since the opening line was a dog or does this play now cancel.
Yeah, that's a tough one. And the reason I try to get these running dogs early, because 90% of the time the lines move with me instead of against me. I guess common sense says Oregon St would have a better chance at covering since the line is under a FG. I would probably still play it small, although to me, being made the favorite instead of the dog kind of changes the dynamic of the game. OSU is now the hunted. With Purdue the line has moved a full 5 points to a FG. That's a big movement, so I doubt I would play it. Especially given the fact that Purdue is a 3-7 team having to cover on the road. A team who has given up 102 points in the last 3 games! I much rather see the Boilermakers in the doggie role than the faves... Good luck.
Although the spread is right on my power rating number, this is one of those games where the team who is favored by DD averages less than 27 ppg. And those kinds of teams cover at a rate of about 39%. Just a fair warning, this trend hasn't done well lately, UNLESS the opponent is a running dog. In those games the running dogs have coverted 100% of the time against a bad offense. But CMU isn't a running dog, and this is the Mac Mafia we're talking about. So like Tuesday's Akron game, I'm just throwing a half a unit on it.
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Central Michigan +11
Although the spread is right on my power rating number, this is one of those games where the team who is favored by DD averages less than 27 ppg. And those kinds of teams cover at a rate of about 39%. Just a fair warning, this trend hasn't done well lately, UNLESS the opponent is a running dog. In those games the running dogs have coverted 100% of the time against a bad offense. But CMU isn't a running dog, and this is the Mac Mafia we're talking about. So like Tuesday's Akron game, I'm just throwing a half a unit on it.
I am obviously new to following the system, but I have a question about tonight’s game. I see Boston College is the number 14 rushing team in the country and Pittsburgh as the number 120 rushing team in the country. It looks as though they have played similar schedules being in the ACC. I don’t know how Pittsburgh could be a running dog if the statistics on rushing or so polar opposite. If anything, I see Boston College being a running dog tonight. I read your explanation above and understand it has a lot to do with the type of defenses you are playing but with these two teams, one of them is absolutely a rushing offense with significant success and the other is the opposite in that they cannot run the ball at all. Yet, tonight we are saying Pittsburgh is a running dog. Help me understand that.
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I am obviously new to following the system, but I have a question about tonight’s game. I see Boston College is the number 14 rushing team in the country and Pittsburgh as the number 120 rushing team in the country. It looks as though they have played similar schedules being in the ACC. I don’t know how Pittsburgh could be a running dog if the statistics on rushing or so polar opposite. If anything, I see Boston College being a running dog tonight. I read your explanation above and understand it has a lot to do with the type of defenses you are playing but with these two teams, one of them is absolutely a rushing offense with significant success and the other is the opposite in that they cannot run the ball at all. Yet, tonight we are saying Pittsburgh is a running dog. Help me understand that.
I am obviously new to following the system, but I have a question about tonight’s game. I see Boston College is the number 14 rushing team in the country and Pittsburgh as the number 120 rushing team in the country. It looks as though they have played similar schedules being in the ACC. I don’t know how Pittsburgh could be a running dog if the statistics on rushing or so polar opposite. If anything, I see Boston College being a running dog tonight. I read your explanation above and understand it has a lot to do with the type of defenses you are playing but with these two teams, one of them is absolutely a rushing offense with significant success and the other is the opposite in that they cannot run the ball at all. Yet, tonight we are saying Pittsburgh is a running dog. Help me understand that.
I know the raw numbers look like they heavily favor BC. But what makes/made Pitt a running dog (now the favorite) is their rush defense. Pitt gives up 3.9 ypc while BC gives up 5.1 ypc on D. It will be a close game tonight either way, since Pitt only averages about 290 ypg on offense. They'll need to turn this into an ugly trench game to win it. Not my favorite play. I absolutely hate when the line crosses zero on my running dogs. It seems like it always puts a different dynamic on the game. Not that they don't still cover, it just seems like they don't cover at as high of a rate. Good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by Martelxo92:
I am obviously new to following the system, but I have a question about tonight’s game. I see Boston College is the number 14 rushing team in the country and Pittsburgh as the number 120 rushing team in the country. It looks as though they have played similar schedules being in the ACC. I don’t know how Pittsburgh could be a running dog if the statistics on rushing or so polar opposite. If anything, I see Boston College being a running dog tonight. I read your explanation above and understand it has a lot to do with the type of defenses you are playing but with these two teams, one of them is absolutely a rushing offense with significant success and the other is the opposite in that they cannot run the ball at all. Yet, tonight we are saying Pittsburgh is a running dog. Help me understand that.
I know the raw numbers look like they heavily favor BC. But what makes/made Pitt a running dog (now the favorite) is their rush defense. Pitt gives up 3.9 ypc while BC gives up 5.1 ypc on D. It will be a close game tonight either way, since Pitt only averages about 290 ypg on offense. They'll need to turn this into an ugly trench game to win it. Not my favorite play. I absolutely hate when the line crosses zero on my running dogs. It seems like it always puts a different dynamic on the game. Not that they don't still cover, it just seems like they don't cover at as high of a rate. Good luck!
I checked the updated injury list for BC. Lots of injuries to starters at BC. BC has much better an analytics this season than Pitt but I think PItt opened at -1 and went as high as -3 ( somebody betting on the obviously inferior analytic team is a huge red light for me).
Love your stuff Strangelove. Keep 'em coming.
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@DrStrangelove
I checked the updated injury list for BC. Lots of injuries to starters at BC. BC has much better an analytics this season than Pitt but I think PItt opened at -1 and went as high as -3 ( somebody betting on the obviously inferior analytic team is a huge red light for me).
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