Eastern Illinois / Minnesota

THURSDAY, AUGUST 28,  BTN   7:00PM E



line analysis

E Illinois -  7/7 back from 12-2 (4th FCS)...lose HC and great QB Garoppolo
     3/5 OL + TE..2 WR..top 2 RB's..9/15 tacklers (inc top 2)
      6-7 all conf players and 4 AA (2 1st/2 3rd)...RB Little is one of nation's best.. but doesn't even start (1500 / 7.1).........
     New HC is former La Tech DC Kim Dameron....
     And...they add QB Jalen Whitlow (started 15 games at Kentucky)....SEC with ZERO running game....he's not bad
      NOTE: ...if he's not ready the QB will be Andrew Manley...who when at  New Mexico St in 2011...BEAT Minny 28-21 somehow (Manley 20-31/288...3/2)
    * they also added a USF WR...Ark DL and Ole Miss DB
      

MINNY -    8/7 back from 8-5...3/5 OL (129 st)..QB Leidner and RB Cobb are back (QB Nelson transferred)
        10/15 tacklers back from a D that gave up 22 pts and 373 yds/g (158 rush / 215 pass)
        Minny is 5-1 ATS as a HF...but has not played well in this type game.
        *2013 W Illinois 29-12 (-24')
         2012 N Hampshire 44-7 (-12')
         2011 N Dak St L 24-37 (-8')
         2010 S Dakota L 38-41 (-29')
         2009 S Dakota 16-13   (-17)   

MATCHUP-
       KEY here is that with Leidner at QB Minny is a true grind it out type of O...running about 70% + of the time...making it very tough to cover this big of a number...

BUT..... Panther rush D is just OK (4.2/rush)...while pass D not bad...while Minny rush attack should be strong and tough to stop here.......advantage Minny
       Minny rush D fairly soft (4.5) and they don't bring much heat (18)...Unless the new QB really struggles in the new O...E Ill should move it fine here


INTANGIBLES
       not much here week 1.....but edge to Minny here as they have improved in every category each year...bring most key guys back (lost 2 on D to NFL) and have played well at home.
       tough to say how EI will play here with a brand new staff...but no reason to think there will be a massive drop-off as the line suggests

$$    this line looks like 2 TD or so too many...Minny should control the game with their running game and grind out a 35-21....31-17 type win.....more likely EI keeps this one tight than getting blown out ..............
 

Was looking at Gophers O-line vs EI D-line and Minni has guys 300+ lbs. If EI can't move the ball and score, this could be a possible blowout. Leaning EI, but my 1st instinct was Minni due to their O line and grind out strategy.

What do you think about Tennessee -5 ( down from 6)? Think Tennessee wins by DD.

75 days until kickoff! Oh yeah!!!

gotta look at BOTH sides DIRT....
  *Minny with only a slight size edge
these boys can play.....keep in mind LY week 1 they beat the crap outta San Diego St 40-19

EI  OL - 300 > 280 > 300 > 320 > 290
   MInny DL - 238 >281 > 290 > 244

Minny Ol- 310 > 321 > 282 > 302 > 326
EI DL -         235 > 305 > 275 > 245  
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VOLS?....might work sure
  *but a terrible way to risk your hard earned cash with plenty of other games to play...one of the nation's BEST dogs rolling in with a top QB?............

again....it kinda looks like you're looking to bet the big school vs small without checking out the 'lesser' team....there are plenty of weak teams just begging for an a-s-s whippin'....these 2 nope...
 

Minny doesn't beat a lot of teams by 30+ but E ILL has to start over on offense with a new HC and QB.  

Thoughts on the E ILL ML?

 

 

BA

a couple of bucks as a straight bet ....if you can get it OK
  *since Minny relies on the run / doesn't turn it over much and has only MTS on deck...upset highly unlikely....so wouldn't include them in the famous Train ML parlay  .........
 

My ML parlays are famous!!?

Train ,   Train + MPL's  = 

 
Best of Luck this Season 

I don't really keep up with Texas teams more than any other...
  *except TCU and Texas maybe

UTSA ?....I need to pay more attention to for sure
  *14-8 ATS overall.....4-0 as road fav.....probably 2nd best in CUSA in their 4th year of existence....

NT and Tex St both lose entire DL
  *NT only 2/7 def front back ....TSU 1/7
too many new faces for both teams to predict how they will play...

MInn / EI ? ....cool thing here is if Minny plays their absolute best game .....and EI their worst....a 50-17....48-13 type
  *you still cover or it's close

BA,

I'm a new capper and I was going through the lines on 5dimes and this game jumped out at me and within minutes I see a topic made by you on this game!

I really like E. Ill +33 this game. As you said, Leidner is more of a rushing QB so there will be a lot of clock eaten. Last year Minnesota's highest win-by was 28 points and throughout the season they weren't very high scores. As long as E. Ill can tag along just a little bit I think there is a good chance they will cover.

I put this one on the radar after BA and someone else brought it up in another thread.

Would LOVE to have your knowledge and talent on the Sunbelt capping team... you think you might be up for it??

This line just dropped to +30 on 5D. Looks like this was a great call BA. Thanks!

Sup Bookie , year in and year out you are the hardest working capper in the forum - will be anxious to watch your work in what will no doubt be yet another banner season for you - EL looks good , and you know I hate dogs Hehe 

Gah why didn't I take this line when it opened? at +27.5 right now :(

Will catch it if it goes back up..but it still may even be a good bet at 20+