Falcon Sports (Power Totals Model)

I'm mostly retired and bore easily. 

I've built a model for Totals and I have a version for each sport. I'm going to finally track 100 plays from it. 

Here are the point differences by sport to generate a play. 

CFB (5pts)

NFL (3pts)

MLB (1 run)

NHL (0.75 goals)

NBA (5pts)

CBB (5pts)

I'll put my next 100 Power Totals in this thread and see how they do. I'll keep it very simple. All will be to win one unit ($100) at (-110) odds.

Friday October 13

Utah St Over 55.5 CFB

New Jersey Over 6.5 NHL

This should be relatively high volume and shouldn't take long. Tomorrow should be wild. 

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

Thank you for your contribution 

@SPark1

 Thanks

I'm mostly retired and enjoy building models. I've had pretty good success with the Top plays from the Power Totals model but I've never played all the plays. So for the next 100 plays, ill drop my wager amount and see what happens when I wager every play that the model suggest. 

My model has the Utah St total at (60.5). Draftkings is running (55.5) right now, so the Over is a play. Thats how I'm going to do the next 100 plays. 

I don't think this will take long and I'm looking for 55% Winners to continue.

55% of a high volume is very good, even against a (-110) line.

Falcon Sports 

This should be interesting.

The next 100 plays will be a case study on,,,,,

Can u build a 100% Mathematical betting model for sports totals that wins at a 55% rate against a (-110) line. 

I'm in no way saying that I've built that but I am going to find out. 

This is a statistical, mathematcal based model. Handicapping will not be used with the exception of weather related conditions when you have an Over. 

Follow along to see how this comes out.

Falcon Sports 

Thanks Falcon for post. I pulled the trigger on Utah St over early this morning. Will tail the Devils play...cant believe that hit total hit last night, but then again cant believe I lost the WV game like I did. Thats just how it goes. Good luck today.

what is the over on how many times you've stated you're retired on covers, 2 of 3 posts in this thread alone , pretty sure we all know

just busting your ballz 

- GL with your plays / systems

@Benz2131

 Good luck 

I'm playing to win 1 unit ($100) on all these. 

This is the first time that I've had all 6 sports ready to go. I've never played or tracked all the plays. This will be a first for me.

Everything is ready at one time and I'm honestly just going to plug and play every play that qualifies. 

No excuses but no promises either. I'll let the 100 plays,,,,,,,,,, play out and then evaluate.

There are just 2 plays today.

Tomorrow for simplicity, ill have 3 release times.

Games from 11 am until 2:30 pm starts.

Games from 2:30 pm until the 6:00 pm starts

Then the remainder of the games.

I have no idea how many plays. I'll run the first group later today.

Good luck 

Falcon Sports 

@Crazy_Train

 Did u know I hardly work these days.

Just kidding, I hope everyone can truly control their time. Thats when your rich.

As I get older, time is by far your most valuable asset. 

Good luck buddy

Falcon Sports 

agreed, I retired at 50, it's just enjoy life now, fk work 

Good Luck Falcon

Thanks guys, no matter what I want to go through these first 100 plays. 

I don't care if they start really bad or really good. First evaluation at play 100.

I've worked on this particular model for 2-3 years. It started for basketball and I've worked on it enough and modified it for every sport.

I've got a lot of time involved with this. I'm looking for 55% or better. I need at least 53% to break even. I'd like to not lose money here.

But can u imagine, you've built a model that you truly can plug and play.

Now here is what your going to say. 

How can u do this? Vegas has the best algorithms and computer programs, the best of the best.

Let me answer you. And my answer is exactly what I'm trying to prove. 

Its my belief that vegas sets a perceived number. They set the best number to draw action on both sides. It is often times the best mathematical number also but I'm trying to exploit the times they don't set the best mathematical number. I feel that I can take a mathematical set of 8 statistics and set the truer mathematical number. 

Now let's talk and discuss this, let's not get into name calling or anything like that. 

Lets look at 100 times that I think I've set the better total.

Tonight

Utah St Over 55.5

I have this number at (60.5). I feel my total is the better total.

New Jersey Over 6.5

I have this set at (7.5). I know they would never post a 7.5. If they did they would get slammed with Under bets. However I think (7.5) is the truer number. Specifically the 7 is definitely in play here. 

I want to have 100 battles with them and I hope to win at least 55 of them.

Now I've got to continue working on Saturdays games.

Falcon Sports 

Like those 2 plays MITM 

Good luck tonight   

@Coloneljim

 Thanks

Anyone that wants to follow along on the 100 plays.

I'll be posting tomorrow at (8 am) (11:30 am) and (3pm). All CST 

I'm not going to be tied to this but around 3hrs before the selected phases, ill post. Any game that qualifies will be posted then.

Good luck and I may need it.

Honestly its time for me to see if the Power Totals model is good or not. Its time to perform. 

Falcon Sports 

@jimbojpc

 Thanks

I will probably need it.

This is something I've needed to do for some time now. Post all the plays in a public forum. Put it on the table. U have something or u don't 

The lines will be from (Draftkings, Fanduel, BETMGM or Caesars) and ill use the best line to my advantage. I have a longtime local but I won't include his lines in this. 

Call this a proof of concept run. 

Just hope i don't get killed here. If this is not going to work, I need to know that also.

Falcon Sports 

I am definitely following. I’m at work tomorrow just hoping I can get a real to check your picks. Thanks 

@Dental

 No problem 

I'll be posting around 8:00 am CST tomorrow morning.

One thing is now for sure, I cannot lose all 100 of them.

Falcon Sports 

@MITM 

Nice job on the picks 

Thanks for the Utah st over

Thanks guys

Nice to win the first two. 

I have my models numbers for tomorrow but I'm not going to compare them to the books until tomorrow.

I'll do a weather search tomorrow morning. I don't want to be on an Over because the books adjusted their number due to weather. 

This may be a tough decision on several games. So when in doubt, ill probably skip. 

Falcon Sports 

thx post winners  

Thanks for the winners!!!

Hey MITM do you have a site where you can check weather for CFB and NFL, not 1 game at a time? I used to use weatherstem.com ! Loved it but of course recently they say they need a sponsor so not available! Thanks 

Undeniably great system and thank you. One (possibly stupid question) will you be posting in this ncaaf forum or baseball forum? Thanks