Great stuff BA... how are you getting familiar w these teams in order to successfully beat the massy / sagrin numbers?... football already tough sport to handicap by its nature... very dynamic game, lotta players, difficult to find many constants to rely on w each team and even if we do theres plenty of random but impactful events to mitigate an edge from penalties/turnovers, etc.... FCS cfb already very tough to get familiar with but we can at least observe almost all the games on youtube to see if our predictions appeared correct on the field ... fcs seems infinitely more tricky ... even if we have a decent feel for these teams from ly and using solid 411 sources we then gotta consider how the 'weird year' manifests itself at that level which i would expect to be much more insane and unpredictable than what we just observed... not to mention think we'll be battling larger vig on these games ...
Agree tho, great opportunity if we can get a handle on it... would be great to hear details on your approach to capping the season ..
1
Great stuff BA... how are you getting familiar w these teams in order to successfully beat the massy / sagrin numbers?... football already tough sport to handicap by its nature... very dynamic game, lotta players, difficult to find many constants to rely on w each team and even if we do theres plenty of random but impactful events to mitigate an edge from penalties/turnovers, etc.... FCS cfb already very tough to get familiar with but we can at least observe almost all the games on youtube to see if our predictions appeared correct on the field ... fcs seems infinitely more tricky ... even if we have a decent feel for these teams from ly and using solid 411 sources we then gotta consider how the 'weird year' manifests itself at that level which i would expect to be much more insane and unpredictable than what we just observed... not to mention think we'll be battling larger vig on these games ...
Agree tho, great opportunity if we can get a handle on it... would be great to hear details on your approach to capping the season ..
wassup boys.....how awesome is this ? ..... Super Bowl then more CFB ! ... games will be on Friday, Sat. AND Sunday most weeks......finishing with title game on May 16
SATURDAY 2/13
*7:00pmE - FSSW+/FS Go
McNeese -2' /56
Tarleton State
* Opened at 1' I believe...total has dropped slightly...up at BOL / BAS / Heritage
COLD as hell (for Texans, esp Cajuns) > 20-25 degrees / 15-20 mph N winds Senior Day .....5K or so fans max
From 2019 depth charts, McNeese returns QB and 3/2 starters...Tarleton 4/6 or so
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
wassup boys.....how awesome is this ? ..... Super Bowl then more CFB ! ... games will be on Friday, Sat. AND Sunday most weeks......finishing with title game on May 16
SATURDAY 2/13
*7:00pmE - FSSW+/FS Go
McNeese -2' /56
Tarleton State
* Opened at 1' I believe...total has dropped slightly...up at BOL / BAS / Heritage
COLD as hell (for Texans, esp Cajuns) > 20-25 degrees / 15-20 mph N winds Senior Day .....5K or so fans max
From 2019 depth charts, McNeese returns QB and 3/2 starters...Tarleton 4/6 or so
* No team workouts in 410 days until last Jan. Covid + not one, but 2 hurricanes wiped them out...some guys still in hotel
* THEN ....DC left for Houston last week ! 20-25 players left...but added nice transfers and had fine recruiting class (fall)
* Solid QB in Orgeron, and RB Mack (USF)
* On probation, not eligible for spring play-off - per HC "looking to fall"
Tarleton-
* Biggest game in school history - 1st in FCS...spent a ton to upgrade facilities
* Not eligible for play-offs for 4 years (rule)
* Lost great weapons at QB/RB/ WR... BUT added WKU QB STEVEN DUNCAN, st 8 games at WKU
* Dominant team at D2....#2 O / #1 D...undefeated last 2 reg seasons
* Playing as indy now, will be in WAC
In 2019 had a common opponent @ SFA
* MSU won 33-10 with 408-254 TO edge / TSU won 37-26 (680-414)
Not even considering Covid issues.....huge uncertainty here, esp with weather. Really tough to see much focus from McNeese tho....esp. if they bus it from Lake Charles (6-7 hrs /likely)...and don't come out on Friday (maybe..they're broke). Cowboys have weapons on O, and have several transfers that could impact here IF they're ready. As far as I can tell, QB Duncan is ready to go for the Texans
$$ you're crazy as hell if betting serious money here.....for me it would be super small on Texans +3 / ML. Best to wait at this point - see if it goes to 3 (should...if not just play ML). Best play might be Texans 1H / then maybe Cowboys 2H. If you like McNeese, just wait for the game to start....then (if available) bet at halftime .........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
1
McNeese -
*New HC, Frank Wilson (UTSA).....3rd in 4Y
* No team workouts in 410 days until last Jan. Covid + not one, but 2 hurricanes wiped them out...some guys still in hotel
* THEN ....DC left for Houston last week ! 20-25 players left...but added nice transfers and had fine recruiting class (fall)
* Solid QB in Orgeron, and RB Mack (USF)
* On probation, not eligible for spring play-off - per HC "looking to fall"
Tarleton-
* Biggest game in school history - 1st in FCS...spent a ton to upgrade facilities
* Not eligible for play-offs for 4 years (rule)
* Lost great weapons at QB/RB/ WR... BUT added WKU QB STEVEN DUNCAN, st 8 games at WKU
* Dominant team at D2....#2 O / #1 D...undefeated last 2 reg seasons
* Playing as indy now, will be in WAC
In 2019 had a common opponent @ SFA
* MSU won 33-10 with 408-254 TO edge / TSU won 37-26 (680-414)
Not even considering Covid issues.....huge uncertainty here, esp with weather. Really tough to see much focus from McNeese tho....esp. if they bus it from Lake Charles (6-7 hrs /likely)...and don't come out on Friday (maybe..they're broke). Cowboys have weapons on O, and have several transfers that could impact here IF they're ready. As far as I can tell, QB Duncan is ready to go for the Texans
$$ you're crazy as hell if betting serious money here.....for me it would be super small on Texans +3 / ML. Best to wait at this point - see if it goes to 3 (should...if not just play ML). Best play might be Texans 1H / then maybe Cowboys 2H. If you like McNeese, just wait for the game to start....then (if available) bet at halftime .........
note: RB Elijah Mack (USF) is NOT on McNeese depth chart
* but TE Pettigrew (LSU / 6-7 -255) and several others are (DL, CB , WR) are
* don't see anybody from Tarleton missing
Tarleton O (could be) underrated here....they lose their 3 stars... but return 2 good backs (5.8 / 6.2) and WR Thomas (6-5)....add QB Duncan and (supposedly) NFL talented WR in Tariq Bitson (6-4).....they do have a decent size advantage over MSU D .....DL / LB tiny
Depth charts (both) are up on Tarleton website ....under 'game notes' like always
News is found under 'archives' usually .....often, like GN, under 'extra or more' in heading
* both local newspapers NOT behind paywall don't think
$ VERY UNFORTUNATE NEWS ....... Circa did have this one up at 1' to open, so openers should be a bit tighter than if BO or BAS were doing it on their own
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
FCS preview this Saturday ....at 9 a.m. CT
https://sland.social/FCSAll-In
note: RB Elijah Mack (USF) is NOT on McNeese depth chart
* but TE Pettigrew (LSU / 6-7 -255) and several others are (DL, CB , WR) are
* don't see anybody from Tarleton missing
Tarleton O (could be) underrated here....they lose their 3 stars... but return 2 good backs (5.8 / 6.2) and WR Thomas (6-5)....add QB Duncan and (supposedly) NFL talented WR in Tariq Bitson (6-4).....they do have a decent size advantage over MSU D .....DL / LB tiny
Depth charts (both) are up on Tarleton website ....under 'game notes' like always
News is found under 'archives' usually .....often, like GN, under 'extra or more' in heading
* both local newspapers NOT behind paywall don't think
$ VERY UNFORTUNATE NEWS ....... Circa did have this one up at 1' to open, so openers should be a bit tighter than if BO or BAS were doing it on their own
Great preview and thats all in the neighborhood of what im reading... talk about last thing mcneese needed was to lose their DC lol...
toooo many moving parts and stale or unknown info expect oddsmakers have a good read ... dont think serious money is tryin to (or even able to) get down big on either side so if im a bookie and up against r/LasVegasBets fun money then im gunna be alot less concerned w accuracy and instead just try to line and price this thing in a way that is gunna appear reasonable and try tontempt some juiced up action .. good set up for that w the brand you're much more likely to have heard of layin under a fg at -115 and maybe get some real morons to buy a hook on Tar for -130 .. also consider that mcneese is got bet up a couple pts and if books felt they had an edge here i dont think they'd shy away from making them a full 3 pt fav or more ... stuck at 2.5 tells me they're at least not confident in that line and def not interested in a bigger Tar ML
0
Great preview and thats all in the neighborhood of what im reading... talk about last thing mcneese needed was to lose their DC lol...
toooo many moving parts and stale or unknown info expect oddsmakers have a good read ... dont think serious money is tryin to (or even able to) get down big on either side so if im a bookie and up against r/LasVegasBets fun money then im gunna be alot less concerned w accuracy and instead just try to line and price this thing in a way that is gunna appear reasonable and try tontempt some juiced up action .. good set up for that w the brand you're much more likely to have heard of layin under a fg at -115 and maybe get some real morons to buy a hook on Tar for -130 .. also consider that mcneese is got bet up a couple pts and if books felt they had an edge here i dont think they'd shy away from making them a full 3 pt fav or more ... stuck at 2.5 tells me they're at least not confident in that line and def not interested in a bigger Tar ML
Big line move TAR -3 and layin odds at that number... ML -160 a few bp's higher than avg... unclear what happened maybe who didnt get off the bus?..either way they def seemed like they were tryin to stay away from TAR +3 yesterday and def not a good place for books swingin the line around like that giving folks a shot at the middle or ML arbitrage..
Good luck today BA ... TAR STATE +2.5 -104 is where i'm at...
0
Big line move TAR -3 and layin odds at that number... ML -160 a few bp's higher than avg... unclear what happened maybe who didnt get off the bus?..either way they def seemed like they were tryin to stay away from TAR +3 yesterday and def not a good place for books swingin the line around like that giving folks a shot at the middle or ML arbitrage..
Good luck today BA ... TAR STATE +2.5 -104 is where i'm at...
B- yep waited for the 3 ..... never saw it .... took 1H instead / small ML play too ....like a buncha other folks ....." wait , I don't get FOXSSW wtf?! " .....added super small Texans 2H -1' / reversing my pre-game strategy = lose for sure
Nemesis - don't look like it - maybe next week with more games ?
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
1
B- yep waited for the 3 ..... never saw it .... took 1H instead / small ML play too ....like a buncha other folks ....." wait , I don't get FOXSSW wtf?! " .....added super small Texans 2H -1' / reversing my pre-game strategy = lose for sure
Nemesis - don't look like it - maybe next week with more games ?
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