Posted:
#1
Tonight we have the degenerate special... cough, cough I mean a Tuesday night Sun Belt game for us to enjoy. A game that quite frankly if played at 3 PM on Saturday would generate no interest, hardly any bets, and not a single thread on this board will be thrust into the spotlight tonight b/c it's the only thing for us degenerates to throw down some hard earned paper on.
Here's why I lean FIU...
First and foremost they have the best player at any position on either team and that T.Y. Hilton. Hilton a star WR is averaging over 100 yards per game, over 17 yards per catch, despite every FIU opponent knowing he's by far their biggest play maker and generating their defensive game plan around that fact. The point here is this guy can't be stopped, at least by not by a Sun Belt secondary, I don't care what Ark State tries to stop Hilton. It won't work. They may be slow him down for a bit, but the guy is a big play threat on every play. Ok, enough about Hilton. We'll now move on to his QB Wesley Carroll. Carroll's stats won't blow you away, but what's important to focus on are his 6 TD's and only 1 INT, in addition to that Carroll is completing nearly 64% of his passes. Simply put this a smart QB who knows where to go with the ball and more importantly where not to go with it. He won't beat himself, by making the silly turnover.
When FIU isn't doing work through the air with the Carroll/Hilton combo they can pound it out on the ground with the tandem of Kedrick Rhodes and Darriet Perry. This duo has combined for over 800 yards and 11 TD's on the ground so far this season. Their both very capable runners and by splitting carries about 60/40 their both able to remain fresh throughout the game. This is a very nice advantage for FIU.
Arkansas State on the other hand has a few things that turn me off. First of which is QB Ryan Aplin. Sure Aplin throws for more yards than Carroll, but I think that's mainly due to the fact that Ark State can't run the ball and lean on Aplin to do more than he can handle at times. This added pressure on the passing game is reflected by Aplin's 8 INT's compared with only 6 TD's. Unlike Carroll for FIU, Aplin has proven he'll force throws, make bad decisons, and turn the ball over frequently.
On the ground Ark State uses a RB by committee approach, that frankly hasn't done much. No RB on their roster has even reached 200 yards yet on the season. On top of that FIU is only allowing 106 yards per game on the ground to their opponents this season. The long and short of it is the Ark State ground game should be pretty close to a non factor tonight. Putting more of the burden on Aplin and opening the door for INT's.
At the end of the day, the wrong team is laying 3 here. I'll be on FIU +3, and might sprinkle a little bit on the ML as well. Best of luck to you all
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