Counting only the plays I've posted in this thread, my record is 2 & 0 (+6.0 Units).
Arizona State vs. Boise State
I would really like ASU a lot in this game if they weren't one of the worst coached teams in the country, and the fact they are playing one of the best coached teams in the country. I also promised myself earlier in the season that I wouldn't wager another penny on them. That said I still locked in two fist half plays.
ASU +7.5 (1st Half) vs. Boise St. *** Small 1-Unit Play ***
ASU +7.5 vs. Boise St UNDER 34 (1st Half)*** Small 2-Unit Play ***
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Counting only the plays I've posted in this thread, my record is 2 & 0 (+6.0 Units).
Arizona State vs. Boise State
I would really like ASU a lot in this game if they weren't one of the worst coached teams in the country, and the fact they are playing one of the best coached teams in the country. I also promised myself earlier in the season that I wouldn't wager another penny on them. That said I still locked in two fist half plays.
ASU +7.5 (1st Half) vs. Boise St. *** Small 1-Unit Play ***
ASU +7.5 vs. Boise St UNDER 34 (1st Half)*** Small 2-Unit Play ***
Why do you like the under? Both team have bad defense. Both offense can air it out. What is it that makes you take the under?
First of all I want to note that I am making very small plays on both the side and the total. The bet size reflects my level of confidence in the plays, and if you've followed this thread, you know my confidence level on both plays isn't very high.
Secondly, yes both teams are capable of putting up points against the opposing team's defense, but the line accounts for this. I capped this game as a 35-31, 35-28 type of a game with Boise coming out on top. Notice those totals are right in line with the total set by the oddsmakers.
I neglected to post it above, but I really like the value in the 1st half plays because I only had to lay -105.
When I bet unders in college football I usually will bet the 1st half under as opposed to the game under particularly if I think it's going to be a competitive game. With college overtime rules such as they are, I don't want to lose my under bet because the game went to 3 overtimes.
After nearly a 1-month layoff, I expect the offenses to come out somewhat slow. Morevoer, the team likely to score most of the points - Boise - is not a no-huddle, hurry-up type offense. The are much more of a balanced, ball-control type of attack thus chewing up precious minutes off the clock.
Again I want to emphasis these are very small plays. I would recommend treading lightly.
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Quote Originally Posted by robbensays:
Why do you like the under? Both team have bad defense. Both offense can air it out. What is it that makes you take the under?
First of all I want to note that I am making very small plays on both the side and the total. The bet size reflects my level of confidence in the plays, and if you've followed this thread, you know my confidence level on both plays isn't very high.
Secondly, yes both teams are capable of putting up points against the opposing team's defense, but the line accounts for this. I capped this game as a 35-31, 35-28 type of a game with Boise coming out on top. Notice those totals are right in line with the total set by the oddsmakers.
I neglected to post it above, but I really like the value in the 1st half plays because I only had to lay -105.
When I bet unders in college football I usually will bet the 1st half under as opposed to the game under particularly if I think it's going to be a competitive game. With college overtime rules such as they are, I don't want to lose my under bet because the game went to 3 overtimes.
After nearly a 1-month layoff, I expect the offenses to come out somewhat slow. Morevoer, the team likely to score most of the points - Boise - is not a no-huddle, hurry-up type offense. The are much more of a balanced, ball-control type of attack thus chewing up precious minutes off the clock.
Again I want to emphasis these are very small plays. I would recommend treading lightly.
Counting only the plays I've posted in this thread, my record is 2 & 0 (+6.0 Units).
Arizona State vs. Boise State
I would really like ASU a lot in this game if they weren't one of the worst coached teams in the country, and the fact they are playing one of the best coached teams in the country. I also promised myself earlier in the season that I wouldn't wager another penny on them. That said I still locked in two fist half plays.
ASU +7.5 (1st Half) vs. Boise St. *** Small 1-Unit Play ***
ASU +7.5 vs. Boise St UNDER 34 (1st Half)*** Small 2-Unit Play ***
I think you have missed on this one for sure! Boise is a great 1st half team for one, and ASU may not even show up. They have a lame duck coach and huge problems in the locker room. A lot of fighting and they are pretty much going through the motions waiting for the season to be over.
My sister attends ASU and has gone to every home football game. She thinks they lose by 30+. I tend to agree with her, and on top of that, Boise is highly upset with the fact they didn't get a BCS bowl. They will be looking to make a statement and for the 1st time in a long time I believe they will look to run the score way up to prove a point IMO.
Either way GL, but I will be against you on this one! Been with you all the way until now, but I have this one locked in as a 8-unit play for me (which is the biggest play that I personally make).
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
Counting only the plays I've posted in this thread, my record is 2 & 0 (+6.0 Units).
Arizona State vs. Boise State
I would really like ASU a lot in this game if they weren't one of the worst coached teams in the country, and the fact they are playing one of the best coached teams in the country. I also promised myself earlier in the season that I wouldn't wager another penny on them. That said I still locked in two fist half plays.
ASU +7.5 (1st Half) vs. Boise St. *** Small 1-Unit Play ***
ASU +7.5 vs. Boise St UNDER 34 (1st Half)*** Small 2-Unit Play ***
I think you have missed on this one for sure! Boise is a great 1st half team for one, and ASU may not even show up. They have a lame duck coach and huge problems in the locker room. A lot of fighting and they are pretty much going through the motions waiting for the season to be over.
My sister attends ASU and has gone to every home football game. She thinks they lose by 30+. I tend to agree with her, and on top of that, Boise is highly upset with the fact they didn't get a BCS bowl. They will be looking to make a statement and for the 1st time in a long time I believe they will look to run the score way up to prove a point IMO.
Either way GL, but I will be against you on this one! Been with you all the way until now, but I have this one locked in as a 8-unit play for me (which is the biggest play that I personally make).
You can not think,not you,but anyone that Boise is going to be up for this game,how pissed are they to be in this shit bowl,while Geogia a team they beat is playing after New Years, With that said I have been trying to figure out a way to make a bit of money on it,but DAMN,Ari St,wish they were playing a better team,lol. But think I will put a small play on your idea,at least I wont have to depend on them all game. GL
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You can not think,not you,but anyone that Boise is going to be up for this game,how pissed are they to be in this shit bowl,while Geogia a team they beat is playing after New Years, With that said I have been trying to figure out a way to make a bit of money on it,but DAMN,Ari St,wish they were playing a better team,lol. But think I will put a small play on your idea,at least I wont have to depend on them all game. GL
I forgot to mention Boise's almost complete inability to kick FGs as another reason to lean to the UNDER.
Valid point freak but sometimes that blows up in your face. Not sure of the Toledo coaches name, but a few years back that fat dude, (think it's Mangini or something), refused to kick fg's and often would even go for 2 pt con. because he didn't have a kicker. MAC games involving Toledo would sail over the total as a result. Not sure who their opponent was in one bowl game, maybe Nevada, but the game got close to 100, because of this. Missed fg's which I suspect you're referring to would help the under. Trying to extend drives because of lack of confidence in the kicker, sometimes the opposite. BOL on the bet, and Merry Christmas.
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
I forgot to mention Boise's almost complete inability to kick FGs as another reason to lean to the UNDER.
Valid point freak but sometimes that blows up in your face. Not sure of the Toledo coaches name, but a few years back that fat dude, (think it's Mangini or something), refused to kick fg's and often would even go for 2 pt con. because he didn't have a kicker. MAC games involving Toledo would sail over the total as a result. Not sure who their opponent was in one bowl game, maybe Nevada, but the game got close to 100, because of this. Missed fg's which I suspect you're referring to would help the under. Trying to extend drives because of lack of confidence in the kicker, sometimes the opposite. BOL on the bet, and Merry Christmas.
I think you have missed on this one for sure! Boise is a great 1st half team for one, and ASU may not even show up. They have a lame duck coach and huge problems in the locker room. A lot of fighting and they are pretty much going through the motions waiting for the season to be over.
My sister attends ASU and has gone to every home football game. She thinks they lose by 30+. I tend to agree with her, and on top of that, Boise is highly upset with the fact they didn't get a BCS bowl. They will be looking to make a statement and for the 1st time in a long time I believe they will look to run the score way up to prove a point IMO.
Either way GL, but I will be against you on this one! Been with you all the way until now, but I have this one locked in as a 8-unit play for me (which is the biggest play that I personally make).
You could be absolutely right. And yes, Boise is typically a very good 1st half team. But Boise is not playing New Mexico or San Jose State tonight. The are playing a very talented (albeit horribly coached) PAC 10 team. So I don't think Boise will just run the Sun Devils out of the stadium in the 1st half. I think the ASU will be able to hang with Boise for a little while, and that if Boise is able to seperate themselves, they'll probably do so in the 2nd half - not the 1st half.
Despite ASU's pedestrian 6 & 6 record, they have played a far tougher schedule than Boise, and have not been blown out by anyone. I really don't think that changes tonight.
I wrote in another thread about the motivating factors in this game, and I don't believe for one second that the ASU players give a rat's ass about Dennis Erickson, or have any motivation to win a game for him. If I thought that I would be all over the ASU moneyline, because I think they are the more talented team. So I really have no argument with you there. I just think the game will play out a little closer than you think it will.
If you have Boise -14 we might not be so opposite afterall. I may hit my ASU +7.5 and UNDER 34 in the first half, and you may very well go on to cash your -14 ticket.
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Quote Originally Posted by kaboom03:
I think you have missed on this one for sure! Boise is a great 1st half team for one, and ASU may not even show up. They have a lame duck coach and huge problems in the locker room. A lot of fighting and they are pretty much going through the motions waiting for the season to be over.
My sister attends ASU and has gone to every home football game. She thinks they lose by 30+. I tend to agree with her, and on top of that, Boise is highly upset with the fact they didn't get a BCS bowl. They will be looking to make a statement and for the 1st time in a long time I believe they will look to run the score way up to prove a point IMO.
Either way GL, but I will be against you on this one! Been with you all the way until now, but I have this one locked in as a 8-unit play for me (which is the biggest play that I personally make).
You could be absolutely right. And yes, Boise is typically a very good 1st half team. But Boise is not playing New Mexico or San Jose State tonight. The are playing a very talented (albeit horribly coached) PAC 10 team. So I don't think Boise will just run the Sun Devils out of the stadium in the 1st half. I think the ASU will be able to hang with Boise for a little while, and that if Boise is able to seperate themselves, they'll probably do so in the 2nd half - not the 1st half.
Despite ASU's pedestrian 6 & 6 record, they have played a far tougher schedule than Boise, and have not been blown out by anyone. I really don't think that changes tonight.
I wrote in another thread about the motivating factors in this game, and I don't believe for one second that the ASU players give a rat's ass about Dennis Erickson, or have any motivation to win a game for him. If I thought that I would be all over the ASU moneyline, because I think they are the more talented team. So I really have no argument with you there. I just think the game will play out a little closer than you think it will.
If you have Boise -14 we might not be so opposite afterall. I may hit my ASU +7.5 and UNDER 34 in the first half, and you may very well go on to cash your -14 ticket.
You can not think,not you,but anyone that Boise is going to be up for this game,how pissed are they to be in this shit bowl,while Geogia a team they beat is playing after New Years, With that said I have been trying to figure out a way to make a bit of money on it,but DAMN,Ari St,wish they were playing a better team,lol. But think I will put a small play on your idea,at least I wont have to depend on them all game. GL
Yes, whatever the pain, it'll be over with quickly.
Honestly though, I really think the 1st half plays are the best plays, and I'm only have to lay -105 to boot. So I'm in a pretty hppy place right now. I just hope I can say that a couple of hours from now.
Best of luck to us tonight JEG!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:
You can not think,not you,but anyone that Boise is going to be up for this game,how pissed are they to be in this shit bowl,while Geogia a team they beat is playing after New Years, With that said I have been trying to figure out a way to make a bit of money on it,but DAMN,Ari St,wish they were playing a better team,lol. But think I will put a small play on your idea,at least I wont have to depend on them all game. GL
Yes, whatever the pain, it'll be over with quickly.
Honestly though, I really think the 1st half plays are the best plays, and I'm only have to lay -105 to boot. So I'm in a pretty hppy place right now. I just hope I can say that a couple of hours from now.
Valid point freak but sometimes that blows up in your face. Not sure of the Toledo coaches name, but a few years back that fat dude, (think it's Mangini or something), refused to kick fg's and often would even go for 2 pt con. because he didn't have a kicker. MAC games involving Toledo would sail over the total as a result. Not sure who their opponent was in one bowl game, maybe Nevada, but the game got close to 100, because of this. Missed fg's which I suspect you're referring to would help the under. Trying to extend drives because of lack of confidence in the kicker, sometimes the opposite. BOL on the bet, and Merry Christmas.
Yes, you're right. The no kicker thing can be a double-edge sword. That could actually be the reason the game goes OVER.
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Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:
Valid point freak but sometimes that blows up in your face. Not sure of the Toledo coaches name, but a few years back that fat dude, (think it's Mangini or something), refused to kick fg's and often would even go for 2 pt con. because he didn't have a kicker. MAC games involving Toledo would sail over the total as a result. Not sure who their opponent was in one bowl game, maybe Nevada, but the game got close to 100, because of this. Missed fg's which I suspect you're referring to would help the under. Trying to extend drives because of lack of confidence in the kicker, sometimes the opposite. BOL on the bet, and Merry Christmas.
Yes, you're right. The no kicker thing can be a double-edge sword. That could actually be the reason the game goes OVER.
As I said before, I was on the other side on this one (in terms of game bets). But, I did take the 2nd half bet with you though, what a horrible push with some late garbage points!
I know its a ways off, but being a Pac-12 fan, and especially an Oregon fan I would like to know your thoughts on the Oregon game?
I like Oregon and the Over. Obviously I'm bias though as a fan and I'm wondering what your thoughts are? I know its still in the distant future but, the line has been moving already so its worth taking an early look at.
GL and I'll be tailing (and hopefully adding to) your thread the rest of the bowl season.
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Good call on the 1st half Under!
As I said before, I was on the other side on this one (in terms of game bets). But, I did take the 2nd half bet with you though, what a horrible push with some late garbage points!
I know its a ways off, but being a Pac-12 fan, and especially an Oregon fan I would like to know your thoughts on the Oregon game?
I like Oregon and the Over. Obviously I'm bias though as a fan and I'm wondering what your thoughts are? I know its still in the distant future but, the line has been moving already so its worth taking an early look at.
GL and I'll be tailing (and hopefully adding to) your thread the rest of the bowl season.
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