Tough break on that Georgia Southern UDML play. Gross game mismanagement cost me a very nice +900 payoff. The Alabama/West Virginia game, which I capped pretty much perfectly, also was a tough break. The kickoff return for a touchdown sunk the UNDER bet. I struggled all week whether I would make West Virginia +26 or the UNDER my "Best Bet." Obviously I choose wrongly. I also cancelled my well-capped +26 play by cancelling it with a Alabama -21 play - a play that I never felt good about. I'm not sure which idiotic bet was worse: Alabama -21 or Florida State -18. It was a good week, but it was very, very close to being a "monster" week.
So far:
Best Bets - 2 & 1
Regular Bets - 5 & 3
UDML - 0 & 1
I came real close to pulling the trigger on Nebraska this week. I let that one get away.
The line I have seen is Alabama -41. That's a pretty sharp line. Alabama would pretty much have to pitch a shutout to cover that. Moreover, these are the types of games that Alabama ordinarily doesn't cover. I'm sure we'll see two QBs next week, so had to predict what will happen. One thing we know for sure is that Alabama is loaded at the skill positions, and that FAU isn't very good.
Both plays you mention are worth a look, but I would have to see the numbers. Alabama at anything south of 24 for a 1st half line would be worth a look, as would any team total for FAU north of 7.
Yeah, that was really, really poor game management on the part of the Georgia Southern coaching staff. When you are a 3 touchdown underdog on the road, and you have a chance to put the game away, you go for it. And as I said, if you go for it and miss, NC State's mindset on the last drive is completely different trailing only 20-17. Most teams will play for the tie in that situation. When you go up 23-17, you force the opposing team to play for the win. They are forced to go for it on all 4th downs. You put them in a do or die situation.
Moreover, a coaching staff has to be prepared for this type of game situation. You have to have a special play that you've practice that will get you a yard or a 2-point conversion in critical situations. You MUST go for it in that situation!!!
That idiotic decision cost me a handsome +900 payoff.
Week 1 Results:
Best Bets - 2 & 1
Regular Bets - 7 & 4
UDML - 0 & 1
Thursday Night:
5Us - Ole Miss -9.5 vs. Boise State *** Best Bet ***
3Us - Texas A&M @ South Carolina OVER 61
Leans:
Texas A&M +9 @ South Carolina
Friday Night:
1U - Colorado State +3 (-105) @ Colorado
Parlay:
1U - 3-Teamer - Ole Miss -9.5, Alabama/West Virginia UNDER 55/ Florida -36.5
Saturday Early:
5Us - Ohio State -16 @ Navy *** Best Bet ***
3Us - Georgia Southern +20.5@ NC State
.5U - Georgia Southern UDML +900 @ NC State
Saturday Afternoon:
5Us - Alabama vs. West Virginia UNDER 55 *** Best Bet ***
3Us - Alabama vs. West Virginia +26
3Us - Alabama -21 (-130)vs. West Virginia
3Us - Arkansas +11 (1st Half) @ Auburn
Saturday Evening:
5Us Idaho @ Florida - 36.5 *** Best Bet ***
3Us - LSU -5 vs. Wisconsin
1U - Florida State -18 @ Oklahoma State
Monday Evening:
3Us - Miami +3 (Even) @ Louisville
3Us - Miami @ Louisville UNDER 27.5 (1st Half)
3Us - Miami @ Louisville -2.5 (2nd Half) (EVEN)
Established in 1995,
Much respect
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