*** Freak Pics *** (Week 2)

I don't want to get too specific on the USA coach, but I was at his house the other night, and he is supremely confident about their chances in this game.  These are two programs heading  in opposite directions.  I honestly think USA wins the game by DD.  Trust me on this one. 

I have posted my thoughts in other threads about the MSU/Oregon game.  Very much like I thought the South Carolina line was ridiculous, so too do I think this one is ridiculous.  I think Oregon will be extremely fortunate to escape this game with a win, much less win it by 2 touchdowns.  When the ML is released, I'll be on that as well.

I will be on two MLs this week - Michigan State and Virginia Tech.  I think both teams have a great shot to win outright.

I have said this a billion times on Blankets.  When a good team has extra time to prepare for a gimmick offense like Oregon's (same premise behind my Ohio State play this past weekend), the pendulum swings heavily in favor of the defense.  Somewhere Bookie broke down the numbers on this in terms of Oregon, and they weren't pretty (I'll look for it and repost it when I find it).  Yes, both teams played this past weekend, but they were both exhibition warm-up type games.  You can bet this week's game is the one both teams have been preparing for during fall camp.

The kryptonite to Oregon's offense has been a stout front 7 that can penetrate and disrupt the rhythm and mesh points of Oregon's offense (see Stanford), and that is not only the strength of MSU's defense, it is the strength of MSU's team.  I think this will be a relatively low-scoring game - something like 27-24, so I think the UNDER will also be a very strong play.

This is Bookie's post on page 2 of the following thread.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101916570&page=1

The MATCH-UP....here seems to favor Sparty

WHY.....are the Ducks so tough to stop?
  *great execution
  *pace/ tempo
       AND if a great running QB too ...a 5th 'E' gap to defend
       Saban / Smart haven't figured it out yet....

Problem?....you can't simulate what they do in 2-3 days of practice
  *you have to (usually) run 2 groups at your D...so teaching their
    O to 22+ guys......most D's don't have the depth to keep up for
     4 quarters

BUT....as that Freak mentioned..the Ducks have been exposed when teams have time to prepare...embarrassing really

2013  *bowl vs Texas...one offensive TD / 4-12 3rd / RB's 3.1/rush
         *Tree...3-10 3rd / 2.6 per rush / 312 TO

2012  *Tree...2 TD's...both on short/shorter field / 4-17 3rd
         *Kan St...4-13 3rd...385 TO

2011  *LSU....335 TO / 3.4 per rush /9-19 3rd
         *Tree...won but 1-9 3rd /387 TO / 18 FD
          *bowl vs Wisky...rolled in shootout type game

2010  *Tree...Ducks rolled here but Stanford still settling in with new D and off big win over Irish / USC next
      *bowl vs Auburn...5-15 3rd / 2.3 per rush
      *note Cal shut them down playing man / crowding LOS

2009  *@ Boise...152 TO / 1.8 per rush
         *bowl vs Ohio St...260 TO / 2-11 3rd

  $$ So...since 2009...when facing even a reasonably tough and RESTED D... the Ducks have not moved it well at all...not one time that I can find...
       *in fact...vs Tree / bowl games /vs rested top D's the Ducks are 45-141 on 3rd down (31.9 % / about #114 LY)

This may be it for my Saturday plays.

Adding:

Saturday Early:

3Us - Akron +15.5 @ Penn State

Saturday Afternoon:

3Us - Maryland -10 @ South Florida

solid week buddy.....good to see we agree on the Tigers.....have MSU on the radar.....USA seems like a solid sleeper pick, BOL this week man

Traditionally under Saban Alabama has not covered these types of games, so I certainly understand the inclination to fade Alabama here.  I do have some concerns however.  Chief among my concerns is can FAU score?

Alabama played FAU two years ago as a 47-point favorite, and won 40-7.  I think FAU only had like 1 1st down going into the waning minutes of the 4th quarter.  All of a sudden FAU's offense woke up against the mostly 3rd string defense.  They methodically drove down the field, and scored a touchdown with about 2 minutes remaining in the game.

This game should be a shutout, but it's difficult to predict if FAU will score a garbage touchdown like that again.  If they do, I think there is virtually no shot Alabama will cover 40.

If, on the other hand, Alabama can pitch a shutout - or limit FAU to 3 points - then there is a reasonably good chance Alabama will cover.

Unlike two years ago when Alabama's offense was very settled at all positions, this season Alabama is anything but settled at the QB position.  With 2 QBs battling for the starting position, we may see the offense be more aggressive late into the game.  Alabama also has a lot more game-breakers at the skill positions this season, so I would not be at all surprised if Alabama eclipsed the 40-point mark of two years ago.

In short, Alabama is still somewhat of an enigma, I'm not just not confident enough in how this game will play out.  40 is a very sharp number IMO, and I think ultimately the game will play out very close to that number.  Whether FAU scores will likely determine which way the pendulum swings on this wager.

I lean toward Alabama's defense pitching a shutout.  I also lean ever so slightly to Alabama being able to generate 40+ points of offense in this game.  Thus, I have an anorexic lean to Alabama.

Rather than betting the game, however, the two plays I may consider is a FAU TT UNDER, or an Alabama 1st half play if the number comes in south of 24, which I don't think it will.  That's where the best value is IMO.

I think they win the game convincingly.

Had Mississippi not completely sh it the bed for 3 quarters, there is no way that game should have even been competitive entering the 4th quarter.

This is a completely different game, however, most notably Boise is at home where we all know they are incredibly tough to beat.  Boise may win, but this is a game that I think will come down to the wire.  10 points is an absurd line.  This line should be more like 4 IMO.

Ordinarily laying road chalk on weeknight games is a recipe for disaster, but I don't think the Roadrunners have the offense to stay with Arizona, and after dropping a home opener to Rutgers, this is pretty much a "MUST WIN" the pirate.

Adding:

Monday Night

Miami @ Louisville UNDER 27.5 (1st Half)

Thursday Night

3Us - Arizona -7 (Even) @ Texas-San Antonio

Friday Night

3Us - Washington State -2.5 @ Nevada

Note:

  This line is now 11.