Record: 32-16(~67%)
This is a college basketball pick for members of this forum. I post it here because they don't know me in that forum and no one will benefit from it and you guys have been my biggest and best supporters.
So just to make sure this thread doesn't get moved, I'll talk college football for a moment: Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State Penn State.
Ok, now that that's out the way, I'll get to the pick.
The pick:
St John's -4.5 @ Tulane
Rock bottom.
Teams only get there once in forever.
When they get there, expect everything they have in the following game to redeem themselves.
This angle didn't work with the Lions in the final game of an 0-16 season and might not even work with the Browns this year. But the NFL is different. It is so tough to be competitive for four quarters in the NFL and CFB. Just ask Purdue in virtually all of their games.
This is not the case in college basketball and the NBA. Defense is simply effort and offense can come to anyone who gets hot. Just ask the Nets, one of the NBA's worst teams who beat the NBA's second best in the Clippers in Double OT the other night.
So basketball allows for this angle FAR more than football.
We will utilize the "HIT ROCK BOTTOM and bounce back big the following game angle" right here.
St. John's hit the ultimate low on 12/29/2017. They lost to, wait for it:
DELAWARE STATE.
Not Delaware (who is terrible in their own right) but Delaware State.
Delaware State, at the time of their loss was #341st in the nation out of 351 teams. Their win catapulted them to 330.
https://kenpom.com/ (see here).
St. John's was a 22 point favorite in this game and lost 79-72.
But worse, they lost....at home.
Think about this. One of the proud smaller franchises of college basketball coached by Lou Carnaseca from yesteryear, lost to a team that shouldn't even be able to lace up St. John's sneakers and has as much history as a newborn with it's umbilical cord snipped..
Chris Mullen the head coach, clearly put himself on the hot seat with this one. This is after a season that St. John's had a 16 game losing streak and had the second worst record in 86 years. EIGHTY SIX.
If last season was a grace period for Mullin in all it's terribleness, he just put a huge bulls-eye on this back.
On top of this, the players, a nice little recruited class, must be more than beside themselves to get back on the court and redeem themselves. I have the quotes but it's just lip service many here will dismiss. Their attitude is a good one.
There is ONE other ingredient we need in a bounceback. They must play a bottom feeder.
WE GET THAT HERE.
They play Tulane. Tulane is a team that is 1-6 and has been outrebounded in all but 1 game this year and has been largely non-competitive (A win over the Southeastern Louisiana Lions is all they have. How's that for a mouthful.) They have no height and their only competent starter is Malik Morgan, essentially their only returning starter from last year.
If you remember, I posted a game where I took Memphis to beat them in the AAC Conference tournament after Tulane beat UCF and (shamefully) took out Houston. We won that post.
Dan Osetkowski, their best player transferred to Texas.
Worse, they fired their coach and leaked his firing BEFORE he was eliminated from the tournament!
This is a dumpster fire of a team playing in what equates to a high school gym with a capacity of 4,100 (and they get it a quarter full if that) so 'home court' here only means travel for St. John's.
Not only that, after such an embarrassing loss at home the last thing you want is your own fans chastising and booing you before tip for the previous loss. It is GOOD to go on the road here.
For some reason they brought in Mike Dunleavy Sr. (YES SENIOR from the lowly Clippers era). Why they did this, who knows? This guy is out of touch with the recruiting process and that was evidenced by the fact that after recruiting they were picked to finish last in the AAC.
This is what Dunleavy had to say about his team before the first game:
"If you give great effort, that will translate into close games. If the game is close, it is my responsibility to find the hot hand to take us to the finish line."
Doesn't sound all that optimistic when the best thing you can say about your team is that you can try to keep the game close. Not WIN, just keep it close. And this is from the usually optimistic head coach.
This is a game that should not be close. If St. John's wants to save face, and if Mullin doesn't want an even bigger bulls-eye on his back, they should blow out the 232nd team in the country.
St. John's even at 2-5 still is ranked 125th. Why? They fought hard at Michigan state and lost 73-62. Lost on the road @ Minnesota 92-86 and Lost a tough battle to VCU 75-69 at home. This team had spirited efforts and than totally shi* the bed against Deleware State who got hot for a night.
The line? -4.5. The books are onto us here and know we are scouting the bounceback spot. This translates to a -10.5 home line for St. John's and that's ridiculous.
Still, after what we just saw vs. Delaware State, the Rock Bottom Bounceback angle is too strong to pass up, even at this spread.
Play it and it will win. The line will rise. Just a warning.
For the CFB forum members only! It's been a pleasure this season.
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