Posted:
#1
I thought I would write up my thoughts on why I am taking FIU +7. As always, counter arguments and thoughts about betting the other side are encouraged, it makes this forum a better place when we can have constructive conversation about the game from cappers who see it both ways. Congrats to those who took La Tech, it panned out how I thought it would. I hope I am seeing this game clearly as well....you never know.....
Now on to the write up:
As I have said before, in my opinion, motivation is a major deciding factor in bowl game performance. FIU is motivated as hell considering this is their first bowl game since 2011. They have a senior quarterback who is a complete stud and wants to end his college career with a bowl win in front of a pretty much home crowd. Temple, from what I have read has said they are motivated to win this bowl game for their seniors to go out as the winningest class in school history or something. Frank Nutile said this in a press conference I just watched. Motivation edge goes to FIU in my own opinion.
Now Temple has been peaking at the right time, going 3-1 in November and riding one hell of a wave. That streak also coincides with Nutile taking over at quarterback, his first start coming the game before the 3-1 (loss to UCF) streak which was a overtime loss against Army If you think that Temple is still riding that wave then play temple as they should have the advantage IF they still have hold of that very elusive momentum they built. That being said, its been a very long layoff since they last played. The Temple defense did regress this year from last year in yards allowed and points allowed per game. That being said they still have a hell of a D line that FIU must go up against. The FIU o-line can hold its own only giving up 22 sacks this season.
Now FIUs strength is in the passing game. The running game still holds it own averaging over 120 yards a game. Now they won't have their best offensive player, WR Thomas Owens, who missed the last 3 games with an injury as has decided not to play to remain healthy for the combine and to prepare for his NFL career. Even with their main weapon gone (Owens had twice as many targets as the next leading receiver) the FIU offense did not experience a drop off putting up 104 points combined over their last two games. Those games were against Western Kentucky and UMass which happen to both immediately proceed Temple in the power rankings.
The Temple Owls really struggle to defend the pass especially in the redzone where they were able to stop teams from getting points only 15% of the time. FIU on the other hand happens to have the nation's best redzone offense.
As I said above I put a lot of weight into motivation which I think FIU will have no problem with. They have a Veteran roster with a very good senior quarterback. They will show up at this game.
The question is, will Temple show up? Do you think they will still be riding their wave from November? Will they continue to peak through a few weeks off, through bowl prep, through travel down to Florida? If you think yes to those questions, then bet Temple. My answer to this is NO they will not. If they regress to how they played pre-november FIU will have no issue either winning outright or at the very least covering. Temple has a QB while playing good recently, has not started that many games vs. a very veteran savvy FIU QB playing his last game. Bottom line Temple struggles to defend the pass which is FIUs strength.
Butch Davis is a solid coach with a very good winning record in bowl games (5-2) who will have his team ready to go. GLTA
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