Posted:
#1
50-51
My only slip up was Penn State last year...
And we are going to win the Purdue team total of over 2.5 wins as well.
Short Write-up because I'm busy in the Penalty Box.
1. I get the line I want.
This was 3.5 all week and went to 4 and now is down to 3 on 5 Dimes.
2. This Purdue team may be far better than we think.
They barely lost to Louisville (a pick-6 sealing the Boilers fate late) as 26.5 pt dogs (books severely underrated them); they crushed Ohio (books underrated them again with Purdue only laying 5 at home); they destroyed Missouri on the road at 7.5 point dogs (books underrated them yet again); they failed to cover against Michigan as 10 pt dogs, yet lead for 3.5 quarters and forgivably and expectedly gave it up late on big plays.
So why wouldn't the books underrate them here too at -3? I think they are which is in part, impetus for the play.
3. What have the Gophers proven?
They beat a below average Buffalo team by 10; crushed Oregon State who is among the worst power 5 teams in the country; and crushed MTSU, their most impressive win; then they promptly went out and lost straight up to a 3rd string QB against Maryland.
Game for game, Purdue is more impressive.
4. Gophers are all banged up in the secondary.
"Winfield is all but certain to miss Saturday’s game, and that will be huge for the Gophers secondary. Also, McGhee won’t play because of the suspension. The secondary, which will start true freshman Ken Handy-Holly at one safety, will be tested like it was against Maryland, if not more."
5. Purdue will be missing two D Lineman due to first half suspensions.
So Minny will look to pound the ball early in their absence. If Purdue goes into the half with the lead and gets their two leading D-Lineman back (one is Bentley), that is a very good sign. But expect Minny's rushing yards to be high in the first half.
6. Purdue off a bye.
I trust Brohm with two weeks to be creative enough against this team to get them over .500. This is not the Minnesota teams of year's past.
7. Honoring Joe Tiller
Purdue's winningest coach just passed away this week. It will be a highly emotional charged atmosphere with a big turnout like the Michigan game. Against a team that's vastly inferior. That's a very good thing.
All these factors have me laying the 3.
PURDUE -3 over GOPHERS
0
Thanks for the info
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