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How much do I hedge?

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by WizardOfOdd:


You and mick82.....

put yourself in the guys shoes first then talk fellas!  you guys have drank too much of vanzacks "no hedge" thread.  $100 to win a little over $7K and you dont want to guarantee a fukn win?  I dont give a damn who you are, but you are dumb if you dont hedge.  

You get getting 70-1.  You are saying you would not be happy with a 40-1 bet guarantee?????

Fukn tards! 



You want $4000 guaranteed paid on your already won games?

Why not make a 5-gamer for say $60 and the six gamer for $40 ? That way your 6-gamer has 40% stake (double the payout with respect to the 5-gamer), ~80%, hence 20% of what you have already won will be riding on the final game of the 6-teamer.

Never hedge a parlay   You are paying juice for no reason.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by HugeBallz:



You want $4000 guaranteed paid on your already won games?

Why not make a 5-gamer for say $60 and the six gamer for $40 ? That way your 6-gamer has 40% stake (double the payout with respect to the 5-gamer), ~80%, hence 20% of what you have already won will be riding on the final game of the 6-teamer.

Never hedge a parlay   You are paying juice for no reason.


that has to be the stupidiest post I ever read
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by troylex300:



that has to be the stupidiest post I ever read

 
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Posted: #29
It's a hell of a lot easier on the mind to be responsible and miss out on a few thousand than to end up with nothing to show on your great day so far.
You may end up kicking yourself for not getting the full 7k+, but not as hard as if you get NOTHING!!! GL either way...
 
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Posted: #30
Hedging a parlay is never good in the long run.

Your 6th selection paying you 7k when your bankroll has almost never past 1k, sure hedge it and party on. I'll admit, I have hedge a $1700 payout parlay's final leg one time only to regret throwing the money away.

However, MATHEMATICALLY, hedging is an -EV proposition. You may hedge a side or total in a live in-game prop if your side is way ahead and your getting a good middle. That's about it.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by HugeBallz:



You want $4000 guaranteed paid on your already won games?

Why not make a 5-gamer for say $60 and the six gamer for $40 ? That way your 6-gamer has 40% stake (double the payout with respect to the 5-gamer), ~80%, hence 20% of what you have already won will be riding on the final game of the 6-teamer.

Never hedge a parlay   You are paying juice for no reason.

I agree with your math.  But parlays are made and getting lucky.  Thats all it is.  You saying "why not make a 5-gamer"...makes no sense. How am I going to know if I will actually hit all games???  
The parlay this guy is trying to hit probably had less than a 5% chance of hitting...I dont know, I'm not a big math person.

"never hedge a parlay".....just laughable.  Again, the math is correct.  Vanzacks thread makes sense from a MATH perspective.  But when was the last time you saw Van make a parlay??  A 7 team parlay that was paying 70-1??  When was the last time you made a parlay that paid 70-1??  

 
 
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Posted: #32
Why not? If I'm in a parlay mood I will make a 3 or 4 gamer for X amount, a 6-gamer with those selections for a smaller amount and a 7-gamer with the same 6 and a 7th game (for a micro stake). If my 7-gamer hits, so will my 6-gamer and small parlay. So I will treat it as a "bonus" and bet according to how much potential win I wanna target.

Eg: 4-gamer for $100 to win $1200

6-gamer for $20 to win $880

So If I wil my first 4 game, I win 1200, if I win my next two, I win $2080 but I am guaranteed $1200 in case my first 4 win and I don't want them to go wasted.

I have studied project management and linear programming. So I target my winning amounts and risk amounts accordingly using formulas. It takes a little time every week before I launge my betting card but that 15-20 minutes every week and the juice I will save by not hedging in the long run will be well worth it.


 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by WizardOfOdd:


You and mick82.....

put yourself in the guys shoes first then talk fellas!  you guys have drank too much of vanzacks "no hedge" thread.  $100 to win a little over $7K and you dont want to guarantee a fukn win?  I dont give a damn who you are, but you are dumb if you dont hedge.  

You get getting 70-1.  You are saying you would not be happy with a 40-1 bet guarantee?????

Fukn tards! 


The put yourself in his shoes argument doesn't make any sense.  I won't be in his shoes because I know math.  I don't need some guy to explain this to me.  It should be obvious if you've ever considered
juice and parlay odds.  For instance, why is a ML never going to be -150 and +200?  Really, these betting odds and probabilities are some of the easiest mathematic fields there are.

I could go on my own rant and post a thread that explains that the only time it makes any sense to hedge is when you have a teaser, but I'll save myself the time.
 
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Posted: #34
I hope you make the right decision or get some great advice cause there are some dumbasses here that will intentionally or unintentionally steer you the wrong way.
 
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Posted: #35
Damn dude, that's nuts.  Great parlay. 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by CheezeStack:

I hope you make the right decision or get some great advice cause there are some dumbasses here that will intentionally or unintentionally steer you the wrong way.

The argument boils down to this metaphor.  The OP wanted some piping for his house.  If he did any research he would find out either on his own or from an unbiased professional that there is a quality pipe thats been proven to be the best.  However, he either knowingly or unknowingly decided to go with a popular name brand pipe that is of lower quality.  Now its either going to cost him more than it would have been in the first place to patch up this lower quality piping for his house or he can just hope that there won't be a catastrophic breakdown.

I can't argue in him patching this wager up now that its been made but it should be clear to him now which pipe to buy next time.
 
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Posted: #37
Ended up putting 3k on Clemson ML.  Thank God I have a Credit online through local cause I don't have the cash for that.  Anyways looking like you guys that said let it ride were right.  Either way I'm happy with 3500 or 4182; I'm going on vacation courtesy of the local Fat Man 
 
 
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Posted: #38
Congrats! When i was in college my uncle called me and was singing the blues...He was down big (he no longer gambles due to marital issues). So I login to his account without him knowing to place a $100 6 game parlay for him with the last game playing the following day.  He was down about $3700 with the local book. The first 5 games hit and I call him to tell him to call the bookie and ask for a larger line of credit since his max was $4k. Being the degenerate gambler he is, he lets it ride, and I'm pretty sure you know what happens. He had to make a large withdrawl that tuesday.
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