I'm looking forward to a new year. None of the week 0 picks were intriguing to me so I am jumping right into week 1. Of course betting early takes on more risk regarding players sitting out with COVID. I'm also not crazy about taking so many favorites...but you have to love the teams you love and learn each week from there. So here are my picks...analysis write ups to follow:
APPALACHIAN STATE -10.5 east carolina
old dominion +32 WAKE FOREST
KENTUCKY -29.5 louisiana monroe
oklahoma -26.5 TULANE
west virginia -3 MARYLAND
CINCINNATI -23 miami oh
baylor -13.5 TEXAS STATE
AUBURN -37 akron
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm looking forward to a new year. None of the week 0 picks were intriguing to me so I am jumping right into week 1. Of course betting early takes on more risk regarding players sitting out with COVID. I'm also not crazy about taking so many favorites...but you have to love the teams you love and learn each week from there. So here are my picks...analysis write ups to follow:
Chase Brice has been much traveled over the years since he filled in for Trevor Lawrence in the game against Syracuse when Trevor almost broke his neck. After leaving Clemson, he went to Duke – the land of quarterback studs, but he was less than studly. Now he dials down the competition into the Sun Belt and is the starter for a very good football team, Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have gone to six straight bowls, winning them all. This year, the Mountaineers return 17 starters, including 9 starters from a defense that gave up only 20 points per game last year (ranked 16 in the country). . Appalachian State also has a lot of offensive firepower with a team that averaged 450 yards per game last year. Their best running back averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year. At the end of the day, we’re looking at a potential New Years Six Bowl team. Last year’s 9-3 team lost 2 games by a total of 3 points (to Coastal Carolina and Louisiana – two excellent teams).
The ECU Pirates, on the other hand, had their problems last year going 3-6 with a defense that gave up 35.4 points per game. In those 6 losses, they only covered this 10.5 point spread 2 times as their leaky defense just couldn’t keep them in those games. Having said that, the Pirate offense is very good with an experienced and talented quarterback in Holton Ahlers and an energized head coach Mike Houston. They have a lot of starters back from last year’s team, but last year’s team just wasn’t very good.
This is a neutral site game between in state rivals. For next week’s game against Miami to mean anything to App State, they have to take care of the Pirates first – so I wouldn’t be concerned about a look ahead. Besides, Appalachian State has not beaten East Carolina in 46 years and there are bragging rights to be had. The difference maker here is that App State has a defense, and ECU does not. The Mountaineers can run the ball, and they like to run the ball. The Pirates will have trouble stopping the run (they were ranked 98 in the country last year against the rush) , and that will break their defense in the end. Coach Houston will bust a Houston Nutt trying to urge his defense to stop the chains from moving. Better luck next year. I am laying the wood and taking the Mountaineers – 10.5.
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APPALACHIAN STATE -10.5 east carolina
Chase Brice has been much traveled over the years since he filled in for Trevor Lawrence in the game against Syracuse when Trevor almost broke his neck. After leaving Clemson, he went to Duke – the land of quarterback studs, but he was less than studly. Now he dials down the competition into the Sun Belt and is the starter for a very good football team, Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have gone to six straight bowls, winning them all. This year, the Mountaineers return 17 starters, including 9 starters from a defense that gave up only 20 points per game last year (ranked 16 in the country). . Appalachian State also has a lot of offensive firepower with a team that averaged 450 yards per game last year. Their best running back averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year. At the end of the day, we’re looking at a potential New Years Six Bowl team. Last year’s 9-3 team lost 2 games by a total of 3 points (to Coastal Carolina and Louisiana – two excellent teams).
The ECU Pirates, on the other hand, had their problems last year going 3-6 with a defense that gave up 35.4 points per game. In those 6 losses, they only covered this 10.5 point spread 2 times as their leaky defense just couldn’t keep them in those games. Having said that, the Pirate offense is very good with an experienced and talented quarterback in Holton Ahlers and an energized head coach Mike Houston. They have a lot of starters back from last year’s team, but last year’s team just wasn’t very good.
This is a neutral site game between in state rivals. For next week’s game against Miami to mean anything to App State, they have to take care of the Pirates first – so I wouldn’t be concerned about a look ahead. Besides, Appalachian State has not beaten East Carolina in 46 years and there are bragging rights to be had. The difference maker here is that App State has a defense, and ECU does not. The Mountaineers can run the ball, and they like to run the ball. The Pirates will have trouble stopping the run (they were ranked 98 in the country last year against the rush) , and that will break their defense in the end. Coach Houston will bust a Houston Nutt trying to urge his defense to stop the chains from moving. Better luck next year. I am laying the wood and taking the Mountaineers – 10.5.
App St always solid. The small school out of Boone one of the more consistent programs in the country. I would expect nothing less this season. Good write-up and GL!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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App St always solid. The small school out of Boone one of the more consistent programs in the country. I would expect nothing less this season. Good write-up and GL!
All indications are that Wake Forest will improve upon their 4-5 record this season. Certainly on offense, where Wake Forest averaged 36 points per game last year and they return every offensive starter. Having said that, there are only so many minutes in a game and you really can’t do a lot better than 36 points per game. What hampers their offense is, actually, their bend but not break defense which gave up 435 yards per game last year. It’s not a snot knocking defense. In the last two years, they have only held one FBS team to less than 14 points.
Old Dominion did not have a team last year, so what they are going to put on the field is a big mystery. They have a new head coach – former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne. He wants to run a no huddle spread offense and, if they do, they will certainly find the end zone against the Deamon Deacon JV’s in the second half. He will use big stud UCF transfer DJ Mack at QB and he loves to run the ball. But the Monarchs also have 2 other experienced QB’s at their disposal and they will leave it a mystery as to who will actually be under center. ODU also added nine transfers who played at other FBS schools in 2020, with six coming from Power Five programs. Coach recently said, "Offensively we continue to show we can run the football. We've done a much better job of completing passes and operating against different defenses. Our quarterbacks and wide receivers are seeing the field better."
At the end of the day, it would be silly to espouse the virtue of the Old Dominion program. The real reason that I like them this game is that I think that ODU will find a way to score 20 points against a weak Wake Forest starting defense combined with their JV defense in the second half. It’s likely they will get at least one TD on a busted coverage or missed tackle out in space. Wake Forest isn’t Alabama and they have only covered this monster spread 4 times in their last 35 games (11% of the time). Furthermore, Wake Forest follows this game with another boring tilt against Norfolk State. Basically, Wake Forest needs to get through 2 weeks of scrimmages before their first ACC contest in a big home game against Florida State. The goal in the first 2 games will be to make sure all of the starters are ready for week 3. That does not bode well for covering 32 points, especially when the starting defense will be on the bench drinking Gatorade and looking up in the stands. I’ll take the Monarchs and the 32 points.
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Old dominion +32 WAKE FOREST
All indications are that Wake Forest will improve upon their 4-5 record this season. Certainly on offense, where Wake Forest averaged 36 points per game last year and they return every offensive starter. Having said that, there are only so many minutes in a game and you really can’t do a lot better than 36 points per game. What hampers their offense is, actually, their bend but not break defense which gave up 435 yards per game last year. It’s not a snot knocking defense. In the last two years, they have only held one FBS team to less than 14 points.
Old Dominion did not have a team last year, so what they are going to put on the field is a big mystery. They have a new head coach – former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne. He wants to run a no huddle spread offense and, if they do, they will certainly find the end zone against the Deamon Deacon JV’s in the second half. He will use big stud UCF transfer DJ Mack at QB and he loves to run the ball. But the Monarchs also have 2 other experienced QB’s at their disposal and they will leave it a mystery as to who will actually be under center. ODU also added nine transfers who played at other FBS schools in 2020, with six coming from Power Five programs. Coach recently said, "Offensively we continue to show we can run the football. We've done a much better job of completing passes and operating against different defenses. Our quarterbacks and wide receivers are seeing the field better."
At the end of the day, it would be silly to espouse the virtue of the Old Dominion program. The real reason that I like them this game is that I think that ODU will find a way to score 20 points against a weak Wake Forest starting defense combined with their JV defense in the second half. It’s likely they will get at least one TD on a busted coverage or missed tackle out in space. Wake Forest isn’t Alabama and they have only covered this monster spread 4 times in their last 35 games (11% of the time). Furthermore, Wake Forest follows this game with another boring tilt against Norfolk State. Basically, Wake Forest needs to get through 2 weeks of scrimmages before their first ACC contest in a big home game against Florida State. The goal in the first 2 games will be to make sure all of the starters are ready for week 3. That does not bode well for covering 32 points, especially when the starting defense will be on the bench drinking Gatorade and looking up in the stands. I’ll take the Monarchs and the 32 points.
Besides returning all 11 starters on offense, an offense that put up 66 vs Campbell and 53 vs UNC, Wake has 9 returning starters on defense, so while their D struggled last season, surely they will be better this season. And Wake went to a Bowl game only to lose to Wisconsin. ODU was horrible in 2019 and there will once again be questions at QB and on defense. Their best 2 pass rushers/DL transfered and they're young. This defense could be completely overwhelmed by an explosive Wake offense who could certainly throw up 50+ on them. More questions than answers with ODU who again did not play last season. GL with that play-
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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@iamhuge
Besides returning all 11 starters on offense, an offense that put up 66 vs Campbell and 53 vs UNC, Wake has 9 returning starters on defense, so while their D struggled last season, surely they will be better this season. And Wake went to a Bowl game only to lose to Wisconsin. ODU was horrible in 2019 and there will once again be questions at QB and on defense. Their best 2 pass rushers/DL transfered and they're young. This defense could be completely overwhelmed by an explosive Wake offense who could certainly throw up 50+ on them. More questions than answers with ODU who again did not play last season. GL with that play-
Always 2 sides to every story. I do appreciate when someone explains why they like a certain team, even if I disagree. That's why they play the game. GL this season
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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@iamhuge
Always 2 sides to every story. I do appreciate when someone explains why they like a certain team, even if I disagree. That's why they play the game. GL this season
@iamhuge Always 2 sides to every story. I do appreciate when someone explains why they like a certain team, even if I disagree. That's why they play the game. GL this season
I never do picks without write ups...unless I am losing like crazy and then what's the point?...lol
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Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
@iamhuge Always 2 sides to every story. I do appreciate when someone explains why they like a certain team, even if I disagree. That's why they play the game. GL this season
I never do picks without write ups...unless I am losing like crazy and then what's the point?...lol
Old dominion +32 WAKE FOREST All indications are that Wake Forest will improve upon their 4-5 record this season. Certainly on offense, where Wake Forest averaged 36 points per game last year and they return every offensive starter. Having said that, there are only so many minutes in a game and you really can’t do a lot better than 36 points per game. What hampers their offense is, actually, their bend but not break defense which gave up 435 yards per game last year. It’s not a snot knocking defense. In the last two years, they have only held one FBS team to less than 14 points. Old Dominion did not have a team last year, so what they are going to put on the field is a big mystery. They have a new head coach – former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne. He wants to run a no huddle spread offense and, if they do, they will certainly find the end zone against the Deamon Deacon JV’s in the second half. He will use big stud UCF transfer DJ Mack at QB and he loves to run the ball. But the Monarchs also have 2 other experienced QB’s at their disposal and they will leave it a mystery as to who will actually be under center. ODU also added nine transfers who played at other FBS schools in 2020, with six coming from Power Five programs. Coach recently said, "Offensively we continue to show we can run the football. We've done a much better job of completing passes and operating against different defenses. Our quarterbacks and wide receivers are seeing the field better." At the end of the day, it would be silly to espouse the virtue of the Old Dominion program. The real reason that I like them this game is that I think that ODU will find a way to score 20 points against a weak Wake Forest starting defense combined with their JV defense in the second half. It’s likely they will get at least one TD on a busted coverage or missed tackle out in space. Wake Forest isn’t Alabama and they have only covered this monster spread 4 times in their last 35 games (11% of the time). Furthermore, Wake Forest follows this game with another boring tilt against Norfolk State. Basically, Wake Forest needs to get through 2 weeks of scrimmages before their first ACC contest in a big home game against Florida State. The goal in the first 2 games will be to make sure all of the starters are ready for week 3. That does not bode well for covering 32 points, especially when the starting defense will be on the bench drinking Gatorade and looking up in the stands. I’ll take the Monarchs and the 32 points.
Appreciate the writeup and I will likely lean the same way. These initial blowout games often go up huge then empty the bench in the second half to see what they have. Backdoor covers are common this early.
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Quote Originally Posted by iamhuge:
Old dominion +32 WAKE FOREST All indications are that Wake Forest will improve upon their 4-5 record this season. Certainly on offense, where Wake Forest averaged 36 points per game last year and they return every offensive starter. Having said that, there are only so many minutes in a game and you really can’t do a lot better than 36 points per game. What hampers their offense is, actually, their bend but not break defense which gave up 435 yards per game last year. It’s not a snot knocking defense. In the last two years, they have only held one FBS team to less than 14 points. Old Dominion did not have a team last year, so what they are going to put on the field is a big mystery. They have a new head coach – former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne. He wants to run a no huddle spread offense and, if they do, they will certainly find the end zone against the Deamon Deacon JV’s in the second half. He will use big stud UCF transfer DJ Mack at QB and he loves to run the ball. But the Monarchs also have 2 other experienced QB’s at their disposal and they will leave it a mystery as to who will actually be under center. ODU also added nine transfers who played at other FBS schools in 2020, with six coming from Power Five programs. Coach recently said, "Offensively we continue to show we can run the football. We've done a much better job of completing passes and operating against different defenses. Our quarterbacks and wide receivers are seeing the field better." At the end of the day, it would be silly to espouse the virtue of the Old Dominion program. The real reason that I like them this game is that I think that ODU will find a way to score 20 points against a weak Wake Forest starting defense combined with their JV defense in the second half. It’s likely they will get at least one TD on a busted coverage or missed tackle out in space. Wake Forest isn’t Alabama and they have only covered this monster spread 4 times in their last 35 games (11% of the time). Furthermore, Wake Forest follows this game with another boring tilt against Norfolk State. Basically, Wake Forest needs to get through 2 weeks of scrimmages before their first ACC contest in a big home game against Florida State. The goal in the first 2 games will be to make sure all of the starters are ready for week 3. That does not bode well for covering 32 points, especially when the starting defense will be on the bench drinking Gatorade and looking up in the stands. I’ll take the Monarchs and the 32 points.
Appreciate the writeup and I will likely lean the same way. These initial blowout games often go up huge then empty the bench in the second half to see what they have. Backdoor covers are common this early.
How do you spell “shit show”? It starts with a Louisiana and ends with a Monroe. You know when you have a Pop Warner coach and he always has his kid play quarterback? Well guess what, the same thing is happening right before our eyes at Louisiana Monroe. Head Coach Terry Bowden brought in Rich Rodriguez to be his Offensive Coordinator, and Rich Rod will be starting his own son at quarterback. You can’t make this shit up. The team is all excited about all of the transfer portal players that they brought in. Excuse me…but why would a GOOD player want to go play at a team that was 0-10 last year and lost those games by an average of 26 points per game??? The Warhawks never even led for 1 second all season. Rich Rod is installing an uptempo offense that always takes time to get the kinks out. The worst thing about these offenses is when they go three and out, the other team’s offense comes on the field and wears out your defense. Then it just gets worser and worser.
Turn the page to their week 1 opponent, the Kentucky Wildcars. Well Mark Stoops has the ‘Cats convinced that they will be playing in Atlanta for the SEC Championship on December 4. Yes, that is crazy but what isn’t crazy is what they are going to do to ULM on week 1. Lawnmower, meet grass. Kentucly has hired Liam Coen as their offensive coordinator, he was the braintrust behind Sean McVay’s Super Bowl team when he was on the Ram’s staff. People spying in on camp have said that this is the best Kentucky offense that Mark Stoops has ever had. USA Today has Kentucky ranked #38 in the FBS (up from final position of 54 last year). What of ULM? They are ranked #130 out of 130 teams. That’s right, they are the worst team in college football. Typically when the 40 ranked team plays the worst team in the country, the result is a 40 point beatdown. Remember, this is a team that gave up 42 points per game last year – in the Sun Belt conference- and they have done nothing in the offseason to fortify their defense. Throw in the fact that Kentucky is home and all of the math adds up to a cover..
People seem to forget that Terry Bowden is 64 years old. He just doesn’t have the energy to work with and inspire a losing team. He only had one winning season in 7 years as head coach at Akron. It’s been 3 years since he has coached. Time has passed him by. It’s going to be impossible for Rich Rod to be objective when it comes to his kid playing Quarterback. This just isn’t a good recipe at all. I expect +4 turnovers for Kentucky. The Wildcats will score at will when they have the ball and ULM won’t be able to keep it away from them. I am laying the wood and taking the ‘Cats -29.5.
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KENTUCKY -29.5 louisiana Monroe
How do you spell “shit show”? It starts with a Louisiana and ends with a Monroe. You know when you have a Pop Warner coach and he always has his kid play quarterback? Well guess what, the same thing is happening right before our eyes at Louisiana Monroe. Head Coach Terry Bowden brought in Rich Rodriguez to be his Offensive Coordinator, and Rich Rod will be starting his own son at quarterback. You can’t make this shit up. The team is all excited about all of the transfer portal players that they brought in. Excuse me…but why would a GOOD player want to go play at a team that was 0-10 last year and lost those games by an average of 26 points per game??? The Warhawks never even led for 1 second all season. Rich Rod is installing an uptempo offense that always takes time to get the kinks out. The worst thing about these offenses is when they go three and out, the other team’s offense comes on the field and wears out your defense. Then it just gets worser and worser.
Turn the page to their week 1 opponent, the Kentucky Wildcars. Well Mark Stoops has the ‘Cats convinced that they will be playing in Atlanta for the SEC Championship on December 4. Yes, that is crazy but what isn’t crazy is what they are going to do to ULM on week 1. Lawnmower, meet grass. Kentucly has hired Liam Coen as their offensive coordinator, he was the braintrust behind Sean McVay’s Super Bowl team when he was on the Ram’s staff. People spying in on camp have said that this is the best Kentucky offense that Mark Stoops has ever had. USA Today has Kentucky ranked #38 in the FBS (up from final position of 54 last year). What of ULM? They are ranked #130 out of 130 teams. That’s right, they are the worst team in college football. Typically when the 40 ranked team plays the worst team in the country, the result is a 40 point beatdown. Remember, this is a team that gave up 42 points per game last year – in the Sun Belt conference- and they have done nothing in the offseason to fortify their defense. Throw in the fact that Kentucky is home and all of the math adds up to a cover..
People seem to forget that Terry Bowden is 64 years old. He just doesn’t have the energy to work with and inspire a losing team. He only had one winning season in 7 years as head coach at Akron. It’s been 3 years since he has coached. Time has passed him by. It’s going to be impossible for Rich Rod to be objective when it comes to his kid playing Quarterback. This just isn’t a good recipe at all. I expect +4 turnovers for Kentucky. The Wildcats will score at will when they have the ball and ULM won’t be able to keep it away from them. I am laying the wood and taking the ‘Cats -29.5.
Obviously when you're as bad as LA MONROE was there must be changes but I don't think I've seen a new coaching staff and number of new players coming in quite like this before, anywhere. And the coaches aren't talking much either, like there's some big secret going on there. While they can't be much worse, perhaps by seasons end they'll be improved, but OTR against a quality opponent in their first game can't spell anything but trouble. I don't know about Kentucky playing for the SEC championship but this first game is a mismatch. Kentucky has some new blood too including at QB, Penn ST transfer and dual threat Will Levis, but I've read good things and the Cats staff like what they see. Like the ODU/WAKE game, will the Cats call off the "dogs" in the 2nd half and allow LM a backdoor cover? That remains to be seen but no way can I back a team that has gone through so much transition in their first game OTR vs a respectable SEC opponent.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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Obviously when you're as bad as LA MONROE was there must be changes but I don't think I've seen a new coaching staff and number of new players coming in quite like this before, anywhere. And the coaches aren't talking much either, like there's some big secret going on there. While they can't be much worse, perhaps by seasons end they'll be improved, but OTR against a quality opponent in their first game can't spell anything but trouble. I don't know about Kentucky playing for the SEC championship but this first game is a mismatch. Kentucky has some new blood too including at QB, Penn ST transfer and dual threat Will Levis, but I've read good things and the Cats staff like what they see. Like the ODU/WAKE game, will the Cats call off the "dogs" in the 2nd half and allow LM a backdoor cover? That remains to be seen but no way can I back a team that has gone through so much transition in their first game OTR vs a respectable SEC opponent.
The folks in Norman, OK are just going crazy right now. It’s been a long time since the Sooners have opened the season with such high expectations. Under center is the odds on favorite to win the Heisman, Spencer Rattler. Boomer Sooner finished the 2020 COVID season with a surgical dissection of Florida (a 55-20 victory) in their bowl game and the expectations have only zoomed from there. All eyes are going to be on this opener and there will be a ton of pressure not to disappoint. And what of the Green Wave? They are a decent football team, they are home and they are getting 26.5 points. So what of the Green Wave? It doesn’t matter, but they were 6-6 last year.
I have to swallow hard when I say this about a Big 12 team, but the Sooners actually have a very good defense. Tulane really likes to run the football, and their rushing attack was ranked 17 in the country last year averaging 217 yards per game. The problem for them is that Oklahoma’s rushing defense was ranked 9 last year and they are going to be even better. The Sooners held Chuba Hubbard to only 43 yards in their 41-13 Bedlam beatdown of Oklahoma State. Tulane lost two of their 2020 starting linemen to the NFL. That’s a big downgrade. Tulane won’t be able to run the football against the Sooner front seven and that means that they won’t be able to hold the ball and that means that their defense is going to get tired and that means that Spencer Rattler is going to find open receivers. This is against a Green Wave defense that has had to replace both its secondary AND its defensive line. Tulane gave up the 13th-most passing yards per game (279 ypg) in all of college football last season. That’s not a good recipe for stopping a QB who is projected to be a #1 pick in 2022.
The problem for Tulane is that there is no incentive for Lincoln Riley to take his foot off the gas – the Big 12 needs respect and they will have to have a resume that stands up against a 1 loss SEC team if they want to make the playoffs. Tulane isn’t a body bag but they really can’t stop the Sooners either. So beating Tulane handily will be a meaningful win for the Sooners. The way to get Rattler into the Heisman lead from jump street means he is going to have to throw for over 400 yards and a bunch of TD passes….and he certainly will. Yes, 26.5 is a lot of points to lay down on the road, but we’re talking big dog vs. little dog here. Give me the chalk and the Sooners.
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oklahoma -26.5 TULANE
The folks in Norman, OK are just going crazy right now. It’s been a long time since the Sooners have opened the season with such high expectations. Under center is the odds on favorite to win the Heisman, Spencer Rattler. Boomer Sooner finished the 2020 COVID season with a surgical dissection of Florida (a 55-20 victory) in their bowl game and the expectations have only zoomed from there. All eyes are going to be on this opener and there will be a ton of pressure not to disappoint. And what of the Green Wave? They are a decent football team, they are home and they are getting 26.5 points. So what of the Green Wave? It doesn’t matter, but they were 6-6 last year.
I have to swallow hard when I say this about a Big 12 team, but the Sooners actually have a very good defense. Tulane really likes to run the football, and their rushing attack was ranked 17 in the country last year averaging 217 yards per game. The problem for them is that Oklahoma’s rushing defense was ranked 9 last year and they are going to be even better. The Sooners held Chuba Hubbard to only 43 yards in their 41-13 Bedlam beatdown of Oklahoma State. Tulane lost two of their 2020 starting linemen to the NFL. That’s a big downgrade. Tulane won’t be able to run the football against the Sooner front seven and that means that they won’t be able to hold the ball and that means that their defense is going to get tired and that means that Spencer Rattler is going to find open receivers. This is against a Green Wave defense that has had to replace both its secondary AND its defensive line. Tulane gave up the 13th-most passing yards per game (279 ypg) in all of college football last season. That’s not a good recipe for stopping a QB who is projected to be a #1 pick in 2022.
The problem for Tulane is that there is no incentive for Lincoln Riley to take his foot off the gas – the Big 12 needs respect and they will have to have a resume that stands up against a 1 loss SEC team if they want to make the playoffs. Tulane isn’t a body bag but they really can’t stop the Sooners either. So beating Tulane handily will be a meaningful win for the Sooners. The way to get Rattler into the Heisman lead from jump street means he is going to have to throw for over 400 yards and a bunch of TD passes….and he certainly will. Yes, 26.5 is a lot of points to lay down on the road, but we’re talking big dog vs. little dog here. Give me the chalk and the Sooners.
How bout them ‘eers? In the Massey Composite Index which is presently comprised of 35 computer services, they have ranked West Virginia #30. There is one poll that has them ranked as high as #24. When we look at Maryland, out of the 35 ranking systems, there are only two that have Maryland ranked better than 40. None of them have Maryland ranked higher than 31. What does this mean? It means that West Virginia is better than Maryland.
Last season, the Mountaineers finished the season at 6-4. They never really challenged for the top of the Big 12, but they were a decent team. Their offense averaged 413 yards and 27 points per game and it looks like they will have eight starters back from that unit. QB Jarret Doege is a veteran game manager style quarterback is careful with the ball nailing 64% of his throws with 14 touchdowns and four picks. They complement the pass with a very good running back, senior Leddie Brown who ran for 1,010 yards averaging more than five yards per carry last season.
West Virginia is a Big 12 team that focuses on – SURPRISE! – defense. Last year they were very very good, finishing fourth in the nation and first in the Big 12 allowing just 291 yards and 21 points per game. West Virginia was #1 in the country in pass defense, allowing 160 yards per game. They have six starters coming back. West Virginia’s strong defense will be the key to the game. Why?
The Terps have some flashy receivers and they have Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback. But here’s something to remember. Tagovailoa transferred from Alabama because he didn’t want to ride the pines. He started last year at Maryland, but he was far from spectacular. In fact he wasn’t even very good, with 7 TD passes and 7 interceptions. The rest of the Maryland offense is nothing remarkable at all, as they only averaged 16 points per game in non-overtime contests last year. The bottom line is that Maryland was picked by the media to finish 5 out of 7 teams in the Big 10 East division this season. They are not quite as bad as Nebr-ass-ka but I wouldn’t expect them to light it up against this defense on Saturday. I am taking the favorite on the road to win convincingly in a low scoring game. Give me West Virginia laying 3.
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west virginia -3 MARYLAND
How bout them ‘eers? In the Massey Composite Index which is presently comprised of 35 computer services, they have ranked West Virginia #30. There is one poll that has them ranked as high as #24. When we look at Maryland, out of the 35 ranking systems, there are only two that have Maryland ranked better than 40. None of them have Maryland ranked higher than 31. What does this mean? It means that West Virginia is better than Maryland.
Last season, the Mountaineers finished the season at 6-4. They never really challenged for the top of the Big 12, but they were a decent team. Their offense averaged 413 yards and 27 points per game and it looks like they will have eight starters back from that unit. QB Jarret Doege is a veteran game manager style quarterback is careful with the ball nailing 64% of his throws with 14 touchdowns and four picks. They complement the pass with a very good running back, senior Leddie Brown who ran for 1,010 yards averaging more than five yards per carry last season.
West Virginia is a Big 12 team that focuses on – SURPRISE! – defense. Last year they were very very good, finishing fourth in the nation and first in the Big 12 allowing just 291 yards and 21 points per game. West Virginia was #1 in the country in pass defense, allowing 160 yards per game. They have six starters coming back. West Virginia’s strong defense will be the key to the game. Why?
The Terps have some flashy receivers and they have Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback. But here’s something to remember. Tagovailoa transferred from Alabama because he didn’t want to ride the pines. He started last year at Maryland, but he was far from spectacular. In fact he wasn’t even very good, with 7 TD passes and 7 interceptions. The rest of the Maryland offense is nothing remarkable at all, as they only averaged 16 points per game in non-overtime contests last year. The bottom line is that Maryland was picked by the media to finish 5 out of 7 teams in the Big 10 East division this season. They are not quite as bad as Nebr-ass-ka but I wouldn’t expect them to light it up against this defense on Saturday. I am taking the favorite on the road to win convincingly in a low scoring game. Give me West Virginia laying 3.
How can you not love those Bearcats after last year’s season? This was a team that went 9-1 and barely lost their Peach Bowl game to powerhouse Georgia. Cinci averaged 37.5 points per game while their defense yielded only 16.8 points per game. They have a hard ass coach with an attitude who brings these guys to play every single down. In their 9 wins, they covered this 23 point spread 6 times, with many of those covers against teams that are far better than Miami OH.
And what of this year’s team? QB Desmond Ridder was the AAC Offensive Player of the year last season after throwing for 19 TDs against only 6 interceptions – and he’s coming back for one more year along with his two best receivers AND his tight end. They also return a running back who carried the ball for 6.6 yds per rush. On the other side of the ball, the expectations are even higher. They finished 8 in the nation in scoring defense and projections are that they will be even better this year. Looking back at that bowl game against Georgia, they made the Bulldogs earn every single yard. They return 6 starters from last year and expect to start 8 seniors on defense.
The story here is that Cincinnati wants to be in the playoff conversation. They have enough good teams on their schedule to dress up their resume (Indiana, Notre Dame, UCF, Tulsa, SMU) but when they play the weaker teams, they also need to look sharp. So here’s where Miami OH fits in. They only played 3 games last year, and got blown out by Buffalo 42-10. Buffalo was not as good as Cincinnati. There’s no question that the Victory Bell will end up in the hands of the Bearcats. The 23 point spread is a little worrisome but this Cinci defense is no joke. Miami is an above average MAC team, but they struggle running the ball and you know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose.
Let’s look at it another way. Right now the computers have Cincinnati ranked #13 in the country, right behind #12 Florida and ahead of #15 USC and #16 LSU. If Florida, USC or LSU had a home game with the the #83 ranked team in the country, would you have a problem laying 23 points? I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami OH doesn’t crack double digits in scoring, which would mean 35 points for the Bearcats gets the job done. I am down with the chalk and the Bearcats, minus 23.
0
CINCINNATI -23 miami oh
How can you not love those Bearcats after last year’s season? This was a team that went 9-1 and barely lost their Peach Bowl game to powerhouse Georgia. Cinci averaged 37.5 points per game while their defense yielded only 16.8 points per game. They have a hard ass coach with an attitude who brings these guys to play every single down. In their 9 wins, they covered this 23 point spread 6 times, with many of those covers against teams that are far better than Miami OH.
And what of this year’s team? QB Desmond Ridder was the AAC Offensive Player of the year last season after throwing for 19 TDs against only 6 interceptions – and he’s coming back for one more year along with his two best receivers AND his tight end. They also return a running back who carried the ball for 6.6 yds per rush. On the other side of the ball, the expectations are even higher. They finished 8 in the nation in scoring defense and projections are that they will be even better this year. Looking back at that bowl game against Georgia, they made the Bulldogs earn every single yard. They return 6 starters from last year and expect to start 8 seniors on defense.
The story here is that Cincinnati wants to be in the playoff conversation. They have enough good teams on their schedule to dress up their resume (Indiana, Notre Dame, UCF, Tulsa, SMU) but when they play the weaker teams, they also need to look sharp. So here’s where Miami OH fits in. They only played 3 games last year, and got blown out by Buffalo 42-10. Buffalo was not as good as Cincinnati. There’s no question that the Victory Bell will end up in the hands of the Bearcats. The 23 point spread is a little worrisome but this Cinci defense is no joke. Miami is an above average MAC team, but they struggle running the ball and you know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose.
Let’s look at it another way. Right now the computers have Cincinnati ranked #13 in the country, right behind #12 Florida and ahead of #15 USC and #16 LSU. If Florida, USC or LSU had a home game with the the #83 ranked team in the country, would you have a problem laying 23 points? I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami OH doesn’t crack double digits in scoring, which would mean 35 points for the Bearcats gets the job done. I am down with the chalk and the Bearcats, minus 23.
Everyone seems to be blowing the Bobcats of Texas State offense these days, but the Baylor Mike Bears are sitting in Waco going, “what are we, wood?”. Baylor is still ranked #56 on the Massey computer composite while Texas State is down at the bottom at #120. So I say, forget the hype…forget that Texas State is home. We know which team is better and 13.5 isn’t an impossible spread by any means, especially when considering the Bobcat defense.
Baylor was a ghastly 2-7 team last year, but not so fast my friend. 4 of those 6 losses were by 10 points or less, so they really didn’t play the games like a 2-7 team. Texas State, on the other hand, was 2-10. Yes they can put up points, but they don’t stop anyone – giving up 38 points per game and 500 yards per game to a soft schedule. Baylor returns 9 starters to its defense which wasn’t bad playing a Big 12 only schedule last season (29 points per game). Baylor also has their stud All Big 12 linebacker, Terrell Bernard, returning to the lineup after being out most of last season. On top of that is Saika Ika, a 6-4, 340-pound LSU transfer at Noseguard who will be snorting at the Texas State QB on every single down.
Texas State has the popcorn gimmicky offense but Baylor sees this stuff every week in the Big 12, except they see better athletes. The fact that the Bobcats gave up 224 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry on the ground last year means to me that their home field advantage goes out the window, since Baylor will be able to control the tempo and the clock and the Texas State fans will have nothing better to do except give COVID to one another. Teams converted 48.4% of the 3 downs against Texas State last year which means they stop nobody.
Baylor scored 31 on Iowa State last year and 32 on Kansas State. They will easily put up 45 on Texas State. That means the Bobcats will need to score 30 to cover, and they won’t. If the Big 12 could only average 29 last year against Baylor, Texas State won’t be able to do it. I really think that Baylor is going to come out knocking some snot on defense and don’t expect Texas State to score more than 14, making this a super easy cover for the road favorites. Give me the Mike Bears – 13.5.
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baylor -13.5 TEXAS STATE
Everyone seems to be blowing the Bobcats of Texas State offense these days, but the Baylor Mike Bears are sitting in Waco going, “what are we, wood?”. Baylor is still ranked #56 on the Massey computer composite while Texas State is down at the bottom at #120. So I say, forget the hype…forget that Texas State is home. We know which team is better and 13.5 isn’t an impossible spread by any means, especially when considering the Bobcat defense.
Baylor was a ghastly 2-7 team last year, but not so fast my friend. 4 of those 6 losses were by 10 points or less, so they really didn’t play the games like a 2-7 team. Texas State, on the other hand, was 2-10. Yes they can put up points, but they don’t stop anyone – giving up 38 points per game and 500 yards per game to a soft schedule. Baylor returns 9 starters to its defense which wasn’t bad playing a Big 12 only schedule last season (29 points per game). Baylor also has their stud All Big 12 linebacker, Terrell Bernard, returning to the lineup after being out most of last season. On top of that is Saika Ika, a 6-4, 340-pound LSU transfer at Noseguard who will be snorting at the Texas State QB on every single down.
Texas State has the popcorn gimmicky offense but Baylor sees this stuff every week in the Big 12, except they see better athletes. The fact that the Bobcats gave up 224 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry on the ground last year means to me that their home field advantage goes out the window, since Baylor will be able to control the tempo and the clock and the Texas State fans will have nothing better to do except give COVID to one another. Teams converted 48.4% of the 3 downs against Texas State last year which means they stop nobody.
Baylor scored 31 on Iowa State last year and 32 on Kansas State. They will easily put up 45 on Texas State. That means the Bobcats will need to score 30 to cover, and they won’t. If the Big 12 could only average 29 last year against Baylor, Texas State won’t be able to do it. I really think that Baylor is going to come out knocking some snot on defense and don’t expect Texas State to score more than 14, making this a super easy cover for the road favorites. Give me the Mike Bears – 13.5.
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