Very excited to see football is back. The transfer portal is going to make for some inefficiencies and opportunities in early lines, that's why I am going for all favorites this week to start the season. Analysis to follow:
SOUTH CAROLINA -12.5 georgia state
KENTUCKY -18 miami oh
USC -34.5 rice
Byu -12 SOUTH FLORIDA
Houston -4.5 UTSA
JAMES MADISON -6.5 middle Tennessee
NEVADA -5 texas state
OKLAHOMA -32 utep
Best of luck to everyone!
SOUTH CAROLINA -12.5 georgia state
Spencer Rattler won’t win the Heisman this year because the Gamecocks aren’t going to win the SEC. Having said that, if you look at Rattler’s short career at Oklahoma, he did a magnificent job of carving up hapless opponents when he could set his feet in the pocket. Clearly in week 1 he will be on a mission to pile up stats – and touchdown passes.
We must remember that Georgia State is coming from the Sun Belt conference and their out of conference record against Army and UNC last year just wasn’t very good, losing both games by an average of 37 points. Last season their defense gave up 27 points per game and don’t expect them to be any better this year. On the other hand, the Gamecocks finished last season with big wins over Florida, Auburn and a Mayo Bowl victory over a UNC team that destroyed Georgia State. South Carolina was strong on the defensive side of the ball but they needed an upgrade on offense. Coach Beamer said he s pleased with how the offense's pace has progressed in Augus and that the Gamecocks are working more plays on the perimeter and focusing on winning balls in space. In recent scrimmages, the SC offense outplayed their very good defense. I wouldn’t expect Geogia State’s defense to be as challenging. Eight offensive linemen from last year's opening game depth chart are back for the Gamecocks. Let’s not forget, Rattler posted a 15-2 record in parts of three seasons with the Sooners.
Georgia State will come in with a lineup full of juniors and seniors. They will have a chip on their shoulder and this is a big game for them. However talent will win out and the air will come out of their balloon on a hot night and Rattler will keep trying to score as they pull away in the second half. Laying the 12.5 on South Carolina and Beamer ball.
KENTUCKY -18 miami oh
Kentucky is home for this season opener. They are ranked 21 in the country while the Red Hawks are down the ladder at #85. There’s no question that the Wildcats are going to win this game, but covering the 18 points is the big question. Miami is expected to be a very good MAC team this year. MAC vs. SEC….hmmm. What would Paul Finebaum say? For the first time since 1978, the Wildcats are ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25. That’s a lot of hype.
When you look at what has happened in the transfer portal, you’ve seen an outflow of top players from Group of 5 teams onto the starting lineups of Power 5 teams. The lesser players from Group of 5 teams have no where to go (other than FCS) in the transfer portal so when you see outflow from Group of 5 teams, you can almost guarantee that a team won’t be as good early in the season as they were last season. So if you like taking the 18 points in this game because Miami had an above average record last year (7-6), you might have to think twice. For example, Miami’s leading tackler Ivan Pace left to play for Cincinnati, while pass rushers Kameron Butler and Lonnie Phelps, left for Virginia and Kansas. In fact, Miami had an abandmont of impact players at all three levels of the defense, in addition to the departure of both co-defensive coordinators, John Hauser and Spence Nowinsky,
The one risk for sure is that Kentucky has a big look ahead game at Florida next week. However in their home opener last season, the Wildcats smoked ULM by the score of 45-7, so one would think Stoops expects to keep his foot on the gas to build momentum into their SEC opener. Penn State transfer Will Levis enters his second season quarterbacking for the ‘Cats. In 2021 Levis threw for over 2800 yards, passing for 24 touchdowns while recording nine rushing TDs as well. Their offense starts and stops with him. They have a plethora of outstanding tight ends who they will rely on. Their RB Rodriguez runs really hard and gets pride yards with every carry. I think Miami’s refurbished secondary is ripe for some blown coverages and missed tackles, leading to some easy scores as the game gets away from them. I am laying the wood on Kentucky as they start their “what about us?” campaign in 2022.
USC -34.5 rice
If anyone doesn’t think that Lincoln Riley’s first game at USC isn’t going to be a Super Bowl for him, they are sadly mistaken. He knows very well that the Trojan faithful has invested a lot of doh ray me in him and there is no way he’s going to go out there in the home opener and shat himself, especially with Caleb Williams at QB. He has a jackpot of talent at the WR position with Addison and Williams. His toughest decision will be who will be more open every time he looks to throw….and he’s going to throw a lot. Rice won’t be able to throw, their QB will be under pressure and his best receiver is now at SMU.
Now it’s true this is a lot of points and that the Rice Owls certainly know how to run the ball and drain the clock. But, on the other hand, Rice is going to be completely incapable on defense in this game and its likely that USC will hit 35 points at the half. USC is all about offense and they were the transfer portal behemoths last season. USC is -50,000 on the moneyline for this game so that should give you and idea of where we will be at the end of the first quarter. USC has a very experienced and much improved offensive line. Their defense still will be only average, but they will be better than last year’s team that gave up 32 points per game, with the infusion of transfer talent. Note that Rice averaged only 21 points per game last year playing in their weak conference. I would look for USC to assert their dominance and the first stringers will be playing deep into the game. It really is very reasonable to expect that USC puts up 60 points in this game against a defense that gave up 36 ppg last year while losing 2 of their starting linebackers to transfer.
Last year when Rice squared off against the 3 “good” teams they played – Texas, Houston and UTSA – they lost by an average score of 49 – 3. Need I say more. The Owls will be going who who who who just beat the crap out of us? The Trojans, that’s who who who.
Your point is well taken, but given that the favorites cover half of the time, picking out 8 favorites out of the entire pool of 70 games doesn't rule out a winning week. Having said that, I normally try to evenly distribute my wagers between dogs and faves.
Byu -12 SOUTH FLORIDA
When it comes to BYU, all I can say is that last year they went 5-0 against the PAC – 10 and they couldn’t even drink after they won each of those games. When I think of South Florida, I think about their 2-10 record last year, with the only wins against Florida A&M and Temple. The Massey computer has BYU ranked 27 and South Florida ranked 103. So on what planet is this going to be a close game???
The Bulls have 10 starters returning on offense and nine on defense, but they sucked last year, so why is that a good thing? BYU returns their starting QB, Jaren Hall, from a great team last year. Hall had 20 TD’s with only 5 interceptions in 2021 while ranking No. 15 nationally with a 78.0 adjusted QBR and he returns his top receivers. That IS a good thing and BYU starts their “mission” to reach a New Years Six party. To be clear: BYU is set to bring back its starting quarterback, three of its four leading receivers, 109 career starts on the offensive line, 97% of its defensive production and all of its specialists. The demolition of the Bulls will certainly serve notice. They will be ready. BYU is 7-1 in season openers and they can’t even go to Starbucks. They take game 1 prep very seriously. South Florida is probably still partying.
People are saying that BYU has the best offensive line that they have ever had boosted by Oregon transfer and future NFL draftee Kingsley Suamataia at tackle. On defense, the Cougars return 10 starters and their two top tacklers. What about South Florida? It really doesn’t matter does it? The most notable news is the fact that last year’s starting QB, Timmy McCain, left the team a week ago when Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon was named the starter. You have to believe that this was the spark for some chatty Kathy locker room crap and could result in some olay blocks from linemen who were loyal to McCain. At the end of the day, BYU doesn’t care. They don’t drink, they don’t smoke but they know how to beat your ass. Laying the 12 points and going with the Cougs.
Houston -4.5 UTSA
I really like this bet. Houston is just straight up a very good football team. They are coming off of a 12-2 season with their only losses to playoff bound Cincinnati and a week 1 fart to Texas Tech. Other than that, they were very very good, scoring over 30 points in 10 of their 12 victories and a bowl game victory over Auburn as the cherry on top. This year they just might be favored in every game they play.
Quarterback Clayton Tune is a senior who threw 39 touchdowns with ten picks and hitting 68% of his passes last season and he’s got four top receivers to spin it to. The WR corp included Nathaniel “Tank” Dell who led the AAC in every receiving category last season. The Roadrunners won’t be able to cover Dell with a blanket. The Cougs also have 4 returning starters on the O-line plus an underappreciated monster at tackle from Texas who transferred in. Last year, Houston was 15th in scoring offense with 35.9 points per game and 19th in the country in scoring defense giving up 20.4 ppg. Yes…they are the really good team that no one knows about.
UTSA had a Cinderella season last year, but they really weren’t as good as Houston was. They were just overachievers and they showed they were fraudulent in their bowl game loss to San Diego State. They suffered a big loss at running back with Sincere McCormick going to the Las Vegas Raiders. On defense - their cornerbacks are not going to be up to the challenge of the marquee Couger big receivers. The Meep Meeps surrendered 27 touchdowns via the pass and 258.0 yards/game, ranking them 106th in Division 1. There are going to be some big plays in the passing game executed by Houston…count on it. UTSA was 69 in total defense. They are not good on that side of the ball.
Looking at Houston’s defense, they were 10 in the nation against the pass last year, so there is going to be a big disparity in the passing games. Houston was also ranked sixth in the nation last year for total defense, which will really be a problem for UTSA with a huge drop off in production at the RB position. Houston will also be good at getting after the QB. Houston has a big advantage at the QB spot and at the WR positions. Houston has been projected to be the top team in the conference preseason media poll, ahead of defending champion Cincinnati. What this all adds up to is that Cougar High will be able to move the ball down the field through the air virtually at will and UTSA won’t be able to move the chains consistently with the big drop in talent at RB they have this season against a very fierce Houston defense. I’m taking the better team – Houston -4.5.
As a Tampa Bay rez' really looking forward to BYU coming to town. Clearly the superior team but 4 reasons maybe the Bulls can give them a respectable game. 1) Bohanon, what a big pickup at QB. McClain sucked and now you bring a QB in from Baylor and the Big 12, and who also led the Bears to victory over BYU in Provo last season, huge upgrade at QB. 2) A ton of returning starters, yea they were pretty bad but improved over the course of the season, losing to Cincinnati in November by 17 as a 24 point dog and finished the season losing to UCF by 4 as a 17 point dog, ending the season 5-2 ATS last 7 games. They can't help but be better this season. 3) Speed. Yea BYU is bigger and stronger but USF will be the faster team on the field. Can they utilize that to their advantage? 4) 4 o' clock start, the hottest, most humid part of the day here. I don't care how hot a summer it was in Provo, humidity here is a completely different animal. The 2nd half heat could be worth paying attention to, again, 1st game of the year too.
Not saying to take USF, I'll just be watching, may even go to the game, but there are enough reasons to think USF might give the Cougars a respectable 1st game of the year, nothing to lose as a heavy underdog, keep it close in the 2nd half, all the pressure would be on BYU, USF playing with house money. GL and have a great season.
That's the beauty, and pain, of betting early in the week. Next man up for the Wildcats!
JAMES MADISON -6.5 middle Tennessee
James Madison makes its FBS debut with this home game. There hasn’t been that much excitement in Harrisonburg since JMU won the FCS championship. Just like they said in Trading Places – “It was the Dukes it was the Dukes!”. However, Middle Tennessee is coming to town and they are telling everyone, “What are we, wood?”. This is a JMU super bowl, but they are hosting a very tough opponent. The key to this game will be the defense of the Dukes.
Let’s get apples to apples on the table. Last year, JMU was the 2 best team in FCS, behind North Dakota State. Last year, Middle Tennessee was the 98 best team in FBS. If they played each other last year on a neutral site, JMU would have won by about a touchdown. The 2 best FCS team will always be better than the 98 best FBS team. So the only analysis we need to break down is which team got better in the offseason and which team didn’t.
JMU returns many of the same players that helped lead the team to a 12-2 record and JMU returns 7 offensive starters. They lose their QB but picked up transfer Todd Centeio, an incredibly athletic and explosive dual threat player from Colorado State who knows how to keep plays alive and wear out defenses. He’s been a great leader so far in camp, as he has played in big stadiums and has given his teammates confidence that they can play at the FBS level. Last year the Dukes averaged 38 points per game, as well as 436.1 yards per game. At running back, JMU returns star Kaelon Black who was injured early last season. So at this position, the JMU offense has a significant upgrade over last year. Their defense was even better, finishing seventh in the FCS last season at 15.4 points allowed per game. That’s pretty stingy, no matter what level you play at.
On the other side of the ball, MTSU has installed a new Air Raid offensive system. They don’t have Mike Leach on their sideline. Trying to run this offense smoothly in week 1 is a tall task, especially in what will be a hostile environment for the Blue Raiders. The student tickets are sold out. This will be especially difficult since the Blue Raiders lost their two best offensive linemen to the transfer portal to Mississippi and Texas. Overall, the Blue Raiders is a young team replacing 11 starters on offense and five starters on defense.. This is the first time many of these players have even ridden on a plane. It’s really just a revamped roster, and that’s not something to love in week 1.
Oh..by the way…In home openers, JMU is 39-11, which includes 19 straight home-opening victories in which JMU has outscored its opponents by an average of 49 to 9. No matter what level they have played at, the players on the JMU roster know how to win. They are mentally tough. It’s not something you can teach…you have to experience it. Will everyone here kindly step to the rear and let a winner lead the way. Here’s my math. JMU was better than MTSU last year. The 2022 JMU team is better than the 2021 JMU team. The 2022 MTSU team is worse than the 2021 MTSU team. JMU is home. Laying the wood and taking the Dukes.
NEVADA -5 texas state
Whenever I think about Texas State, it reminds me of the movie Necessary Roughness where the team comes from some town in the middle of nowhere, they always lose, their quarterback Scott Bakula is 40 years old and their nickname is the Armadillos. Presently the Massey Composite has Texas State ranked 122 out of 130 FBS teams. This week they are going up to Reno for a road game against Nevada. Last week Nevada went on the road and vanquished New Mexico State by 11 points - a team of similar calibur to Texas State. The Aggies struggled to run the ball against Nevada last week. The Wolf Pack run defense was very stout, holding the Aggies, who want to run the ball under Jerry “I’m not dead yet” Kill, to 3.4 yards per carry on 25 attempts. Nevada didn't give up any busts on runs and made NMSU work for its yards. Nevada also ran the ball well – 178 yards -- and controlled the offensive line of scrimmage and kept themselves in manageable 3 down situations. Nevada also has a secret weapon in their kicker, who looks to be NFL bound. When you’re giving points, it’s always good when everyone yells “NOONAN!” and your kicker still makes his field goals.
Nevada has two very different style quarterbacks which gives them the luxury of switching up and giving a different look to the defense, and sticking with what works. The Texas State defense, a team that gave up 33 points per game last season (ranked 101), will have enough problems figuring out one quarterback, let alone two. While it is true Nevada must get more out of its passing game than they displayed last week in the future if it's going to beat good teams, the Bobcats are not a good team. One unique quality of this Nevada team is their propensity for winning the turnover battle. Nevada was first in the nation in turnover margin in 2021 and they were an astonishing +5 last week. One should expect Texas State to also be very generous when it comes to ball security, especially since the Bobcats are going with a new QB transfer this season in Game 1.
So you know what happens when your team sucks, you can’t run the ball on the road and you can’t stop the other team from moving the chains? You lose, that’s what happens….and you probably don’t cover the spread. I like betting against bad teams on the road when they are getting less than a touchdown. So we’re jumping on the back of the ‘Pack this week.
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That's a 4 point drop! Why is that and do you still like them? 
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