Things are starting to make sense out here as the mysteries of the transfer portal are starting to become clearer. Here are my picks for the week...analysis to follow:
air force -15.5 WYOMING
INDIANA -6.5 western kentucky
rutgers -17.5 TEMPLE
louisiana -12 RICE
michigan state +2 WASHINGTON
Let me know which ones you like and best of luck to all.
air force -15.5 WYOMING
The Falcons are flying high and it’s not because they are doing coke in the cockpit. These guys aren’t controlling the skies but they sure no how to get it done on the ground. In week 1 against Northern Iowa, they had 582 yards rushing for a 9.2 yards per carry. In contrast, Northern Iowa held their second opponent – North Dakota – to only 3.6 yards per rush. Yes, the same North Dakota team that ran for 5.3 yards per carry against Nebraska. Just to get some perspective. Turning back to Air Force, last week they went up against Colorado, who knew exactly what Air Force was going to do. Air Force ran for 435 yards and 6.2 yards per carry in that 41-10 win.
So we know that Air Force is going to try to run the ball. Will they succeed? Wyoming let up 6.3 yards per carry against Illinois in their opening week 38-6 loss and although they tightened up a little in their 2 victories over weaker opponents, the fact of the matter is that they were unable to stop a team on the ground who doesn’t run the ball as well as Air Force can.
Of course you always have to be concerned about the atmosphere in these weeknight games that heavily favors the home team but nothing demoralizes a team more than getting their manhood taken away as the chains continue to move and there is nothing you can do about it. The Falcon defense is only giving up 13.5 points per game, so scoring is not going to come easy for the Cowboys. The best thing about laying the points with Air Force is that they will continue to run the exact same offense on every series, so even in the 4 quarter they will still be good for one or two touchdowns. The Falcon defense is very underrated, and while Fisher DeBerry would have liked them to have been less monochromatic, they certainly know how to play team defense and stay in position. Note that Colorado finished a combined 1-for-13 on third- and fourth-down conversion tries last week. Colorado averaged just 3.1 yards per offensive snap while AFA averaged 5.9.
It’s hard to imagine that Air Force won’t put up 40 points in this game, since they will be unstoppable running the wishbone. Air Force hasn’t given up more than 17 points this year in any game, so there seems to be some value in this line. Air Force will always be a threat to score at any time in the contest and once the win is out of reach for Wyoming, expect the differential in the game to increase, rather than decrease. Off we go into the wild blue yonder, Climbing high into the sun. Taking the road favorite Falcons.
I am conflicted with the Sparty game....might just go over the total. I think they have too much offense for Washington, but the thinking is Penix has a big game vs Sparty
I want to see your write-up on Indiana as I believe this line favoured the wrong team or should be closer to EVEN ....this is a seriously good offense. Illinois put up 21 on Indiana? Indiana is gonna trade scores is what I am thinking which is why I went with the backdoor cover scenario and Indiana just beats the cover and I take winning margin win by 7 - 12 pts @ +450
If you keep up this record through WEEK #4, your realize you are not gonna get much sleep and your fingers are going to be raw from typing?
BOL this week, I gave back on my record after a 7-0-1 Week 1 
fwiw
https://news.yahoo.com/college-football-betting-why-were-backing-western-kentucky-against-indiana-143840387.html
https://www.crimsonquarry.com/2022/9/13/23351574/iu-football-preview-western-kentucky-hilltoppers
I'm on W KY +6.5, sprinkle the +220 ml as well as MIch St over
GL
INDIANA -6.5 western Kentucky
Remember when Buddy Ryan punched Kevin Gilbride on the sidelines? First he said that Gilbride’s offense was the “chuck and duck” and then he said Gilbride would be selling insurance in a couple of years. Along the way, Gilbride was the Offensive Coordinator of the NY Giants where he was affectionately known as Kevin “Killdrive”. Why does this matter? The Hilltoppers also run this kind of offense and does nothing to help your own defense play football. It works great when you have a great quarterback and you play against bad teams. It doesn’t work well at all when you have a mediocre quarterback and you play against good teams.
Last year everyone knows WKU had Bailey Zappe at QB, who turned out to be a legit NFL QB who secured a spot on the Patriots as a rookie this season. WKU didn’t have anyone good enough to replace Zappe, so they went fishing in Little League and pulled up Austin Reed from Division 2 West Florida as a grad transfer. So Reed’s entire career he’s played against Division 2 opponents and the first two defenses he faced as an FBS starter were against Austin Peay and Hawaii. Against Austin Peay, he completed less than 60% of his passes and WKU led by only 21-20 at the end of the 3 quarter in that game. They only put up 388 yards of offense against Austin Peay. They did a little better against Hawaii (412 yards) but that pales in comparison to what the other Hawaii opponents did to the Rainbow Warriors (average of 595 yards and 59.5 points). In other words, everyone is blowing the WKU offense, but they really aren’t that good when you look at them in the big boy multiverse. So now we say, Hilltoppers, welcome to the Big 10.
The Hoosiers come into this game seeing blood red. Indiana knocked off a very good Illinois team that has given up only 9 points total in its other two games against Virginia and Wyoming. The Cavs and Cowboys were otherwise averaging 33 points per game. So the fact that Indiana found a way to put points on the board against a tough Illinois defense tells you that they will easily score against WKU, whose popgun offense isn’t capable of controlling a game and keeping their defense off of the field. The Hoosiers 35-22 victory in a rainstorm over an underrated Idaho team may not seem like a notable feat, but Idaho is much improved and their one score loss to Washington State looks a lot better after the Cougars knocked off Wisconsin on the road.
Last season, Indiana only won 2 games, and one of them was against Western Kentucky. If you want to run with the big dogs, you have to get off of the porch. WKU is still being paper trained. They have benefitted this season from +10 turnovers and so when those turnovers revert back to the mean, their score differentials won’t be as impressive. Indiana is going to be able to bring pressure against WKU’s overmatched offensive line. Indiana runs the ball with power and they will take control of the game early on. WKU won’t be able to have any success running the ball on the road. You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose. The 6.5 points is pretty skinny when you’re the home team and you’re from the Big 10. Indiana will likely exceed 30 points of offense. For WKU? It’s a long way from West Florida. So I’m going with the home favorite to cover.
rutgers -17.5 TEMPLE
It’s been a while since anyone loved Rutgers as a favorite, but the Scarlet Knight’s defense is playing with some serious attitude with an aggressive front seven that has been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks so far. BC’s Jurkovec still has nightmares from his first week ducking tackles. Last week against Wagner, Rutgers could have won by 100 points if it wanted to as it held Wagner to 0.6 yards per carry. The Knights have been lockdown on defense through their first two games, ranking second in the country in rushing defense and ninth in total defense. Clearly Schiano has no problem laying the wood to weaker opponents, and the Temple Owls certainly fall into that category. The problem with Temple is that their offense stinks. Facing a Duke team whose defense is not as good as Rutgers’ defense is, Temple was unable to score a point and had less than 200 yards of offense against the Blue Devils. If you look at their last 8 games against FBS competition, Temple has averaged 7.4 points per game. Right now, the Owls currently rank 121st in the country on offense.
Forget about home field advantage. Last week in the cavernous Linc, the Owls had 18,000 fans in attendance. This week, the Rutgers faithful will certainly make the trip down I-95 to do some tailgating and will likely have more fans in attendance than Temple does. I wouldn’t view this as a road game at all, and, either way, Rutgers handled themselves just fine when it traveled up to Boston 2 weeks ago. Last week Temple had a tough time with FCS Lafayette, leading by only 21-14 going into the 4 quarter. There aren’t many simulations one can run where Temple can score more than 14 points this week. So the mystery of the cover resides on whether Rutgers can put up 32 points. The quarterback battle continues in Piscataway as both sophomore quarterbacks Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt took snaps on Saturday. What that means is that Schiano will allow them to compete for poll position and that means that they will have an open playbook to score points, even if the game is already comfortably in hand. Duke had no problem running the ball against Temple and their offense threw for over 300 yards. While Rutger’s offense is not as prolific as the Blue Devils, their defense is going to give them more chances to score. Temple won’t be able to run the ball and it will force EJ Warner to make plays, while former starter with starting quarterback D’Wan Mathis breathing down his neck. We won’t be seeing clock eating drives coming from the Owls.
Last year Rutgers took out Temple 61-14. This year’s Rutgers team is better than what they put on the field last year. We can’t say the same thing about Temple. I’m looking at something like 42-10 which makes this an easy cover. Really easy. Rutgers moves to 3-0 this week with the big win.
@iamhuge
This tells me like the public u like favorites. Ur record is subject to have huge loses if u keep playing majority of favorites facts. That being said I think Michigan state is better than Washington. Pay the extra juice and play the moneyline. I hardly ever play point spread favorites. At least give me some points to play with on a dog. Also I have this rule never bet on or against military schools with points. The bookmakers always get the point spread wrong on the military teams. The only team I would consider betting against on the moneyline is citadel it also depends on who they are playing against. They are worst of military schools.
You do realize his record is 10-2.....right? Do you think he is going to play favs every week? Why don't you wait until he is 2-10 before helping him out with his picks.
louisiana -12 RICE
If it was up to SAT scores, Rice would have this game hands down. But it isn’t. I am looking at the Massey Composite computer rankings. They have Eastern Michigan ranked 110 and Rice ranked 117. SP+ tabs Rice as the 120th best team in the country. Louisiana sits at 61. Louisiana beat Eastern Michigan 49-21 last week, so it seems reasonable that covering 12 points against a weaker opponent is probably. Rice got pounded by USC, losing 66-14, not showing much offense at all even though Stanford was able to score 28 points against the Trojans. Especially lame was their QB play against USC, going 14/28 for only 134 yards and 4 interceptions. Even though Rice thumped McNeese State in week 2 (52-10) the score differential was deceiving given that Rice was +5 in turnovers and McNeese was able to run the ball for 5.7 yards per carry. USC was able to run the ball for 208 yards and 7.4 yards per carry. Clearly Rice has issues up front on defense.
The Cajuns have a balanced offensive attack, scoring 36.5 points per game and have proven to be formidable at stopping the run, only giving up 76 yards per game on the ground. If Rice can’t run the ball against ULL, they will be completely boned since their QB play is so awful. This is especially critical since the Owl’s week 1 starter, Wiley Green, sat out the McNeese game due to an undefined injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against UL Lafayette on Saturday. The Cajun defense has proven that they can shut down prolific offenses. EMU scored 42 points in their opener but only scraped up 21 points against ULL last week. The Cajuns have not been very good defending the pass so far this season, but this won’t be an issue against Rice QB TJ McMahon who probably will play as well as Shane McMahon did when Kane attached battery cables to his testicles.
Last week ULL QB Ben Wooldridge had 169 yards on 12-of-13 passing for the Ragin’ Cajuns, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. The Owls are conceding 38.0 points per game, which has them 116th in the country. It's clear that Louisiana will find a way to put at least 40 points on the board, so if they can hold Rice to less than 28 points, it should be a cover. Something you didn’t know - ULL comes into the game with the nation’s longest winning streak, 15 games in a row. Louisiana has covered the number in six of its last seven, while Rice has failed to cover the number in 10 of its last 14. Last week the Cajun’s ran away from Eastern Michigan in the second half, scoring 28 points in the 4th quarter. That’s one way to ensure a cover. Taking the favorite Cajuns down in Houston as the Rice faithful stays in the library prepping for midterms.
So I don't disagree with your pick, but in all fairness to the Rice qb, 2 of those 4 ints we're the same receiver's fault. The ball was thrown straight to his hands both times and he chose to bat the ball upward and that resulted in those ints. You can watch the highlights in the 3rd quarter of the U.S.C game and see for yourself.
Sometimes the "soft pillow" throw is more effective.
@Kep131313
I am using two preseason source ratings and neither of them are Phil Steele....I am off him for now and trying a couple others. I am 11-4-1 on sides/totals so far using my new data so I am not moving away from it
Consider what I said....they were going through the motions in both games and giving their QB some experience of the playbook to see what could be accomplished and now, with more game film, you will likely see some specific plays that are designs to the QB's /teams matchup vs Indiana d-line
Going with my numbers until teams prove me otherwise or my numbers suck on most plays
It's possible that is true, but the victory over Illinois might refute that. A win over WKU would probably mean that they are not terrible. A loss would certainly support your opinion, directionally speaking. Let's see, shall we?
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