COLORADO ST -2.5 vs wyoming
north carolina +8.5 @ VIRGINIA
LOUISVILLE -1.5 vs wake forest
georgia -6.5 @ FLORIDA
kentucky +6.5 @ MISSOURI
south florida +7.5 @ HOUSTON
texas tech +5 @ IOWA ST
will add write ups and analysis through the week....which ones do you like? best of luck to all !
Thanks...I will try to explain my analysis. Still fuming about the Cinci Temple game!
COLORADO ST -2.5 vs wyoming - Wyoming is 0-6 against FBS teams this year. Yes, they did beat New Mexico State in week 1, but like I said, they are 0-6 against FBS teams this year. While the Cowboys defense has been pretty decent, their offense is only averaging 15.5 points per game. They don't like to throw the ball, as they are ranked 121st in the country in passing yards per game. They also don't run the ball very well. Overall, the Cowboys offense is impotent. That's why they don't score.
The Rams defense isn't very good. However they are the home team. That helps. But having a weak defense isn't the end of the world when you play a team that doesn't score. Colorado State scored 34 points against Hawaii, but Wyoming only scored 13 on Hawaii...just to illustrate how weak Wyoming's offense is.
Colorado State has already beaten 2 teams (Arkansas and New Mexico) that are better than Wyoming. Taking the home team when their body of work is better than their opponent is usually a winning play. Laying the 2.5 and taking the Rams.
This is exactly how I see this game iamhuge. Colorado State cannot stop anyone, but they can score, and they have good QB play, so I do not see how Wyoming can keep up with them, and this would be the basis of my play on CSU.
north carolina +8.5 @ VIRGINIA - Oh I've got Carolina on my mind. UNC is only 1-5, but they are easily the best 1-5 team in the country. In 4 of their 6 games that they played, they easily cover this spread (7 point loss at Cal, 3 point victory over Pitt, 3 point loss to Virginia Tech, 3 point overtime loss at Syracuse.) Based on this data alone, they are more than capable of covering.
Turning to UVA, they've had a very unremarkable 5-2 season and are about to be exposed. Their best RB, Jordan Ellis, had to leave the game against Duke with an ankle injury last week so he'll be toast. If they have to rely on the QB, he's good for at least one interception per game. That's good for me when they have to cover 8.5 points. With big wins over Duke and Miami, the Cavs are already relaxing as they begin the soft 3 game stretch in their schedule. It's a scripted letdown game. If you're following trends, the Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games and 6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 overall.
More importantly, the Hoos offense hasn't been explosive enough to pull away...... so laying the wood will be too much for them to overcome. I love getting points and taking the road dogs here. Carolina on my mind.
Right pick...wrong result. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
LOUISVILLE -1.5 vs wake forest - I think everyone in the world will agree that the Lou is not the Lou anymore. However they are not quite the Lou-sers yet. I would be willing to offer that Wake Forest is fraudulent...not only are they fraudulent, they are flat out ass. Wake has been everyone's sexy team this year and they haven't done squat. If you take the other side of this, you're basically saying that Wake Forest is going to come into Louisville and beat the Cardinal.
Where is the evidence that this is likely? Wake Forest has 3 wins...let's break them down (OT win over Tulane and Tulane is not as good as Louisville, a victory over Towson and a victory over Rice)...where in there do you see a win over Louisville as likely? Their 4 other games were against top 50 teams and they got hit like an 18 wheeler with no brakes in those 4 losses.
I'm not going to stand here and say Louisville is a great team and they they are going to mop up the field with Wake Forest, but when the chips are down and there is absolutely no factual evidence that Wake Forest has beaten a team as good as Louisville is, then I'll just bet on the home team. In fact, Louisville has played very well in 3 of their 4 home games.
The Demon Deacons have two of their linebackers banged up and we don't even know if they'll play. Also, Wake Forest is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry in their road games...you know what happens to a team when they can't run the ball on the road and control the game. They go sploosh.
Taking the Cardinal to win and cover.
georgia -6.5 @ FLORIDA - The City of Jacksonville welcomes you to Georgia vs. Florida 2018, one of the most storied rivalries in all of college football. Gameday will be there. Both SEC teams are 6-1. What a great game to watch, and an even better game to bet on. Georgia is coming off a thrashing at the hands of LSU. the Bulldogs must suck, right? Well...Georgia is averaging 39 points per game, so I don't think that we have to worry that they will only score 16 points like they did in the LSU games. Look more closely at the LSU result. Fromm was 16/34 with 2 interceptions. They also fumbled the ball twice. That's 4 turnovers to zero by LSU. I am not saying that LSU didn't deserve to win that game, but there was no way UGA was going to win when they were -4 on turnovers. So throw that game out, and look at the rest of UGA's body of work: They beat South Carolina by 24, beat MTSU by 42, beat Mizzou by 14, beat Tennessee by 26 and Vandy by 28. By the way, UGA has a better QB than Florida does...and this is a neutral site..not a road game.
The Gators are very good...but their offense simply is not as good as Georgia's. Here's how Florida did against top 100 teams...lost to Kentucky..UGA is better than Kentucky. They also beat Tennessee by 26, they beat Miss St by 7 and Vandy by 10. They did beat LSU..but it was at home...big difference when you play at LSU.
The fact of the matter is that everyone is blowing Florida's defense..which is giving up 16.6 points per game. I'll tell you something you don't know...Georgia's defense is giving up 16.3 points per game. Georgia is ready to make their playoff run. D'Andre Swift is due for his big game in the spotlight. UGA can score quickly...Florida can't. Laying the points on the Dawgs.
kentucky +6.5 @ MISSOURI - every time we turn on the TV after the Kentucky game, we see their running back Benny Snell saying something non-sensical. But the reason he is on TV is that Kentucky won. He's on TV a lot. Kentucky is 6-1 and Missouri is 4-3. Now I'll be a monkey's uncle but I can't understand why Kentucky is getting 6.5 points in this game. In order for Mizzou to cover, they have to win the game. Now Kentucky has already played 4 games against teams as good or better than Mizzou and they are 3-1 in those games (defeated Florida 27-16, Defeated Mississippi St 28-7, defeated South Carolina 24-10, Lost to Texas A&M 14-20) but they covered this spread every time.
Mizzou has also played 4 games against teams that in the top 30...and they are 1-3 in these games (beat Purdue 40-37, lost to Georgia 29-43, lost to South Carolina 35-37 and lost to Alabama 10-39)...The Tigers have a very good offense but they have two WR who are questionable for this game. Also, Kentucky with their running game controls the clock...and has only given up 12.9 points per game.
Kentucky is going to win this game straight up...and Benny Snell is going to say something silly afterwards. Bank it.
Totally agree with you for the reasons I posted in my thread when asked my thoughts on this game.
Just curious...do you mean specifically that Kentucky may be looking ahead to Georgia? Or something else when you say "trap game". I usually call it a "look ahead game" which I do use to mitigate any valuation.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
