VIRGINIA -10.5 illinois
Wahoo! Sport coats and bow ties in the stands and the Cavs opened up a can of whoop ass on their in state cousins, William and Mary last week by the score of 45-0. There was nothing about this game that you could not like about UVA. They were unstoppable on offense, posting 545 yards with an impressive rushing attack of 6.4 yards per carry. Now before you cry FCS body bag game, be aware that William and Mary plays in the tough Colonial Conference and are ranked around 40 in the FCS which is a lot higher than South Dakota 46th (which almost beat Kansas) and ETSU 62 which dismantled Vanderbilt. Virginia successfully held William and Mary to only 2.5 yards per carry.
Honestly, Illinois had a horseshoe up their ass when they beat Nebraska, which made completely idiotic penalties at the most inopportune times. The Cornhuskers clearly outplayed Illinois and were pretty far behind before they finally came back strong at the end. The Illini defense really wasn’t very stout when it had to be. This was further exemplified in their loss last weekend to UTSA, as they gave up 37 points and nearly 500 yards of offense to the Roadrunners. Massey Composite presently has Nebraska ranked 53 (about the same as UVA) and has UTSA ranked 95. With Illinois on the road against a hungry UVA team looking for cross conference street cred, I think Illinois is going to play closer to the team that lost to UTSA. Against UTSA, whose defense is not nearly as good as Virginia’s, Illinois ran the ball for only 3.7 yards per carry. They were even worse against Nebraska (3.5 yards per carry). You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose. You know what happens when you can’t run the ball and your starting quarterback (Brandon Peters) has a shoulder injury and his backup misses open targets? You lose by double digits.
Illinois allowed a number of balls thrown 30+ yards to be caught, all leading to scores for UTSA. This isn’t good news when they are facing Brennan Armstong, UVA’s QB and two time captain, who is tied for the FBS lead with most single-season games (6) with 200+ yards passing and 45+ yards rushing. He had a passer rating of 180 last week against William and Mary, 68% of his passes, 2 TD’s and 339 yards. If Peters does play, he will be hobbled and certainly will not be effective running the ball. If he doesn’t play, expect Sitkowski to play to his level (a backup QB from Rutgers) and he won’t be able to keep pace. Illinois’s sloppy defense provides confidence that UVA can cover the wood. Laying 10.5 on the Cavs.
Mtsu +20 VIRGINIA TECH
All is right in Hokie land. They played their balls off on Friday night and vanquished UNC and their Heisman hopeful quarterback. With a road trip to West Virginia next week, this upcoming game against MTSU stinks of the song “We’re the three best friends that anyone could have” or, in other words, a nasty hangover, complete with roofies. As much as VT Coach Justin Fuente is screaming at his team to take this game seriously, he’s hiding in the back of his coaching office closet sissing himself over their ACC beat down of the Tar Heels. No one is thinking about Middle Tennessee. No one, that is, except Middle Tennessee.
MTSU’s destruction of FCS Monmouth is no joking matter. Monmouth had a really good spring season and they took FCS Champ Sam Houston down to the wire less than 5 months ago. The fact that MTSU held Monmouth to only 15 points and only 2.3 yards per carry means that this defense is ready to go, and with 11 returning starters, that is the expectation. With 8 starters back from last year’s team which steadily improved throughout the season, the Blue Raiders are ready for this test. NC State transfer QB Bailey Hockman is not at all fearful of ACC competition where he threw for close to 2,100 yards and 13 touchdown passes, hitting 64% of his passes. He was 17/22 last week with 3 TD passes against Monmouth.
Last week, Virginia Tech ran the ball 43 times out of 62 plays. They were able to control the game and hold the lead while they milked the clock. There’s no doubt that Fuente would love to have a quick game on Saturday, and look for them to bleed the clock again. It just doesn’t bode well for the Hokies to put up more than 30 points and if MTSU finds a way to put at least 10 points on the scoreboard, which they will, this will be a very difficult game for VT to cover. In their last 5 games, the Hokies have averaged less than 20 points per game. I am taking the 20 points and the Blue Raiders as VT runs out of time and fails to cover.
Uab +27 GEORGIA
Speaking of hangovers, Georgia will need a cajun bloodymary to resolve the hangover they got after taking out Clemson. By the way, a cajun bloodymary is a bloodymary with a crawfish in it. Is Georgia a top 5 team, of course they are. But that doesn’t mean they will win by 27 points. In fact it’s hard to fathom how they can cover this spread. UAB is ranked #69 on Massey Composite, nestled right next to Washington State, Tennessee, Tulane, Air Force, San Diego State and Texas Tech. Be honest, would you give any of these teams 27 points against Georgia in a hangover game?
UAB looked remarkably efficient last week and their defense pitched a shutout. When I look at Georgia, I see a dominant team but not a team that has an offense built for blowout spreads. In their 10 games last year, UGA covered a 27 point spread only twice. In their 14 games in 2019, they covered 27 points only 4 times and only 1 of those teams was ranked higher than UAB is now.
Turning to UAB, this game has been circled on their calendar for many months. Their QB, Tyler Johnston is a 4 year starter and a senior. The Blazers ended up getting 371 yards and 3 touchdowns in the air against Jax State. Johnston will be talking about the Georgia game for the rest of his life and he won’t be rattled like DJ was last week. Their defense will make Georgia earn their yards. Last year they were ranked 9 in the country in explosive pass plays allowed. They held their opponents to less than 20 points in 5 of their 9 games played in 2020.
UAB is going to come into Athens looking for respect, and since they played last Wednesday they have had 10 days to get ready. Yes, they will have their share of 3 and outs but if they can find a way to squeak out 10 points, the Dawgs will struggle to cover as they exceeded 37 points scored only 3 times last year. At the end of the day, it’s always about percentages and Georgia hasn’t found a way to cover this number more than 50% of the time…not even close. I’m not going to embarrass myself and say that UAB will find a way to go toe to toe with Georgia. They will likely get punished at the line of scrimmage. However, UAB has 12 seniors who stayed with the program because of the extra year of eligibility and they are returning 16 starters. Spot them 27 points and they will take me to the pay window. Go Blazers!
Buffalo +11.5 NEBRASKA
Can you imagine if this game had been played only a few years ago? Yes, indeed. How far the mighty have fallen. The new Massey Composite index is out, and Nebraska is ranked #75 – right behind UTSA at 74 and Rutgers at 73. And what of Buffalo you might ask? Well, the 20 computer ratings have spit them out at #43. That’s right, the better team is getting 11.5 points in this game. I could stop right there.
And what of Nebraska’s 52-7 destruction of Fordham last week? Shouldn’t we be impressed? Not so fast my friend. Buffalo can do that shit also, beating Wagner 69-7 in week 1. Buffalo’s victory was actually far more impressive, holding Wagner to under 100 yards of offense whereas Fordham found a way to get 297 yards against Nebraska, likely leaving a couple of TD’s on the field.
Last year Buffalo was ranked in the Top 25 as a legit Group of 5 upper echelon team. Nebraska was 3-5 last year and couldn’t even sniff the Top 25. The stars of the Buffalo team last season were their offensive line who sent RB Jaret Patterson to the NFL. His replacement, Kevin Marks actually outgained Patterson in 4 of 7 games last season. The team was ranked #2 in the country in rushing. Four of their starters on the O-line return for this season, along with their starting QB Senior Kyle Vantrease. He was a very efficient 15 of 19 passes thrown last week. On defense, the Bulls return 8 of their top 10 tacklers. These Bulls are not going to go into Lincoln with stars in their eyes. They are coming in snorting for a “W”. I love teams that can go on the road and run the ball and quiet things down in a hurry. That’s what we’ll see on Saturday.
Lurking on the schedule next week for Nebraska is Oklahoma and there is no doubt that Scott Frost is getting calls off the hook from the old boosters about being ready for that game – one of the most hallowed former rivalries in all of the football. It is certainly going to be a distraction this week for Nebraska. By virtue of the fact that Buffalo will be able to run the ball and move the chains, a quick game will be difficult for Nebraska to cover, even if they find a way to beat a better team. Given that they are home, the Huskers will probably find a way to pull it out but their defense, and their front 7, just isn’t good enough to shut the door on anyone and that back door will be wide open for a road team cover. Taking the double digit 11.5 points and Da Bulls for the dog cover.
The only way there would be a sport coat or bow tie a UVa game these days would be if I showed up. Narrator: MaineRoad didn't show up.
I really like Buffalo, as Nebraska wasn't any better than Fordham for a quarter and a half. I don't like the line movement the other way, though.
I don't know what to make of UVa in an 11:00am tilt against a team coming off a loss that looks a lot worse than it was. I can't imagine more than a handful of the FCA kids will be there at that hour. I hope you're right, but I'll pass.
Good luck this week. Love your stuff.
@iamhuge
Some good point but u r missing some key details. First - buff doesn’t return 4 starters on off line a only 2 and the 3 they lost are 2 first team MAC and 1 3rd team. Also lost top 2 receivers. The most critical point is the whole coaching staff left after spring - this is massive. Bringing up Wagner is irrelevant - that is a D3 team who was 1-13 last 2 yrs at D3. They also lost a 3rd round draft pick on def line and a couple others. This is Buff team isn’t close to the team they had the last couple yrs. some good points but look into the details more. This doesn’t mean Buff doesn’t cover but not a great take on them.
Wagner is a Division 1-AA team, not a very good Division 1-AA team, but still clearly the best college team on Staten Island (probably).
Buffalo is, at present, a dreaded public road dog, and with reverse line movement to boot. I think I'll be staying away, after really liking the Bulls out of the box.
Nc state -2 MISSISSIPPI STATE
Rumor is that the ACC is changing the name of its conference to the Atlantic Shore Syndicate, or ASS, to more appropriately reflect its level of football talent. Having said all of that, there is one burning ember in the ashes that may have some life in it. AHHH WOOOO says the Wolfpack, fresh off of an impressive 45-0 ASSkicking of South Florida. There is a lot to like about NC State, which the all omnipresent Massey Composite has ranked #34. Sitting beneath them in the polls is #51 ranked Mississippi State and it took a shitload of cowbell to save their ass last week against a soft Louisiana Tech team.
Last week the Wolfpack ran up and down the Bulls for 293 yards on the ground and an impossible 7.3 yards per carry. If they can pound the rock like this, then the cowbells will be all quiet in Starkville. Mississippi State turned the ball over six times, and committed 12 penalties for 95 yards – but they still managed to win the game. Now one can look at this two ways. Perhaps we could say that the Bulldogs must have a lot of talent if they can overcome these mistakes and still win – so maybe they are pretty good. On the other hand, one might surmise that this team is undisciplined and that their coach, Mike Leach, is a whack job and this is going to be their modus operandi week to week. I tend to lean towards the latter, especially since they were turning the ball over like flapjacks all last year too.
No matter how sloppy the offensive play was for Mississippi State, their defense just wasn’t very good against a meh offense that scored fewer than 3 touchdowns in half of their games last year. They are going to have to raise their game significantly against NC State and Devin Leary, who complemented the brutal running assault with strong passing accuracy of 65% last week and 8.9 yards per pass attempt to move the chains for 27 first downs. One would think that this offense can really wear out a defense, and I am sure the Pirate emphasized conditioning among his disciplined practice schedule – not.
There’s no doubt that the Air Raid offense being showcased by Mississippi State is tough to stop, but they weren’t stellar last week on 3 down (2 for 8) indicating that soph QB Will Rogers may not have the poise to face a more difficult defensive puzzle which he will certainly see on Saturday night. NC State has 10 returning starters on defense, with their studs camping out in the secondary. If DJ and Howell keep fudging their duds at Clemson and UNC, we might be looking at the best team in the ASS.
Bottom line is that NC State is really the better team in this matchup and they looked great last week. There isn’t much not to like about NC State and there are so many questions that still need to be answered for Miss State, so I am going with the road team and laying the 2 on the Wolfpack.
Liberty -6 TROY
On Saturday, the 48 ranked team in the country will go on the road to take on the 76 ranked team. Ordinarily one would consider this a fairly even contest so to lay 6 points on the road team would be a risky endeavor.
Last year Liberty was 10-1 on the season, with their one loss coming at the hands of NC State by 1 point. Yes…they were one point away from perfection. Meanwhile, Troy’s record was not quite that good…not at all. They ended up a very disappointing 5-6 on the season with a few of those losses to teams that weren’t very good at all.
Of course this year, everything is different and Troy opened the season by pasting hapless FCS doormat Southern University. Liberty concocted the same BS by destroying the Campbell Camels. So based on their performances, there isn’t much to extract. However, there are some key differences:
Liberty is led by Hugh “Make the Call” Freeze and his calls are not limited to what he does on the sidelines. Liberty pays Mr. Freeze $3 million per year and there is no doubt that they wouldn’t “escort” that much cash to this coach if they didn’t plan on winning some football games. And win they will. Coming back from last year’ stellar squad are no fewer than 20 returning starters, not the least of which is Malik Willis. Willis will easily be the best player on the field on Saturday…he may be the best player on any field on Saturday. If you’ve never seen him play, it’s a real treat. This kid is going at 5 gig while everyone else is still using a flip phone. Willis is going head to head against a serviceable QB under center for Troy, Taylor Powell, who had to battle in camp to win the spot. Willis will be a first round draft pick. Taylor Powell will finish his football career at Troy. If Troy wants to focus on Willis, they will be at the mercy of Liberty’s running attack, which averaged 250 yards per game last season. At running back, the Flames’ Joshua Mack leads all active FBS rushers with 3,702 career yards. Compare this to Troy, which struggled to average 100 yards per game on the ground.
With all of the team returning from last year’s spectacular season and with Willis at the helm, one has to believe that Liberty is looking at nothing short of perfection for the 2021 season. Their defense was ranked 11 in the country last year and yup…you’ll be looking at this same team only they will be bigger, faster and stronger with more than one 300+ lb D linemen plugging the holes. Troy has some question marks at both corners, which means that they could be sucked into coming up to stop a Willis scramble and then have an “oh shit” moment as a receiver releases downfield. Troy will start 5 freshman and sophs to try to stay disciplined while Willis is hitting the circle button on his Madden controller.
Liberty has covered in 8 of its last 9 road games and the last 6 in a row. There’s absolutely no reason to think that the Flames won’t keep it going here. Laying the 6 points on the better team, Flame on!
Hey Huge, I'm seeing -4 on heritage for Liberty. Where do you see -6?
COLORADO STATE -4.5 vanderbilt
I love the expression – “Vandy is candy”. What does it mean? It means betting against Vandy is like taking candy from babies. The Commodores played more like used condoms last week, taking a beatdown from ETSU, an FCS school which is just about average. Before Colorado State can begin strutting around like Brutus “The Barber” Beefcake, they were all faceful too – giving up 43 points to FCS heavyweight and #1 ranked South Dakota State. Having said all that, there is a big difference. SDSU is really really good and they’d easily be above .500 in most FBS conferences. But watching Vandy score only 3 points against ETSU is just really really bad. Vanderbilt was outmuscled by ETSU. They were bigger, stronger, and faster than the Nashville nerds at many positions. So that’s all we know about what we saw on the field.
A lot of Vandy’s offensive woes last week can be attributed to their 3 turnovers, but the fact that they only averaged 2.7 yards per carry is somewhat inexplicable. You know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose. Truth be told, Vandy will see a soft defense when they go to Fort Collins, but it won’t be much worse than ETSU’s defense. It’s difficult to conjure up more than 10 points coming from the Commodores on Saturday. Of note is that CSU star DB and tackling machine Logan Stewart will suit up this week after not playing much at all last week. That’s bad news for the Vandy offense.
I have to get behind Rams’ coach Steve Addazio. He’s a tough guy who doesn’t take any crap. Against a very good Jackrabbit defense, CSU QB Todd Centeio completed 70% of his passes for 316 yards and no interceptions. Colorado State will present a big matchup problem for Vandy with their NFL prospect All American 6’4” 260 lb TE Trey McBride - who had 13 catches for 116 yards last week. CSU is celebrating its farm roots for Ag Day with alternative helmets that feature a retro 1960s Rams head logo. That look is silly enough, but it would be really silly if they lose, at home, to a Vanderbilt team that has now lost 11 games in a row. It really is unfathomable. Both teams have pretty bad defenses but CSU has the much better offense. The bottom line on this one is that Colorado State is the better team, and they are home. I was lucky to get this game at -4.5, as the Vandy haters seem to have piled on the Rams and bumped the spread to 7. The Commodores will lose – again - and no one in Nashville will care. I’ll take the home favorites.
Established in 1995,
. Solid work
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