I always look forward to week 3, as ELO begins to kick in to make my computer model less crazy and the eyeball test becomes more important as we get a feel for the fakers and the takers. Having said that I am high on 11 picks, that will get me firmly in the black for the season.
Here are my picks for week 3…analysis to follow:
Maryland -7.5 ILLINOIS
Michigan state +6 MIAMI
ARMY -33 connecticut
MASSACHUSETTS +18.5 eastern michigan
Virginia tech +2.5 WEST VIRGINIA
Cincinnati -3 INDIANA
Ball state +6 WYOMING
TOLEDO -14 colorado state
Charlotte +2.5 GEORGIA STATE
SAN DIEGO STATE +7 utah
Stanford -11 VANDERBILT
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I always look forward to week 3, as ELO begins to kick in to make my computer model less crazy and the eyeball test becomes more important as we get a feel for the fakers and the takers. Having said that I am high on 11 picks, that will get me firmly in the black for the season.
There’s a lot to like about this Maryland team this week and, no, it’s not because they demolished Moe Howard last week 69-0. It’s more about how the lesser Tagovailoa stood tall and got it done against West Virginia and their vaunted Big 12 defense. His poise was admirable as he brought Maryland from behind in week 1. His stats were no less impressive 26 for 36 for 332 yards with 3 TD’s. The reason why this is important is that they will be playing an Illinois defense which we literally shredded by Virginia last weekend for 550 yards and by UTSA (yes UTSA) for 500 yards the previous week. Illinois Coach Bret Bielema is likely going bulimic watching the game tapes of his defense and knowing that he has to face Tagovailoa Friday night.
The Terp defense is playing very well, as it held West Virginia to only 48 yards rushing and 2.3 yards per carry. Illinois has not done a terrific job running the rock, averaging only 3.9 yards per carry in their 3 contests. That will but too much pressure on backup QB Art Sitkowski (a Rutgers transfer), who has only been able to complete 57 percent of his passes, to try to keep up with the Maryland offense. Bottom line here is that the Terps beat West Virginia by 6. UTSA beat Illinois by 7 and Virginia beat Illinois by 28. Maryland (ranked #45) is better than UTSA and not too far from being as good as Virginia. West Virginia is certainly better than Illinois (ranked #93) is. If you want to hitch your wagon to Illinois season opener victory against Nebraska, you’re probably being misled. The Cornhuskers did everything they could to blow that game. I think the true Illinois team is what we saw the past 2 weeks, which isn’t very good. The home cooking isn’t going to be enough to fend off the Turtle Power. I’m laying the 7.5 on the half shell and the road chalk.
0
Maryland -7.5 ILLINOIS
There’s a lot to like about this Maryland team this week and, no, it’s not because they demolished Moe Howard last week 69-0. It’s more about how the lesser Tagovailoa stood tall and got it done against West Virginia and their vaunted Big 12 defense. His poise was admirable as he brought Maryland from behind in week 1. His stats were no less impressive 26 for 36 for 332 yards with 3 TD’s. The reason why this is important is that they will be playing an Illinois defense which we literally shredded by Virginia last weekend for 550 yards and by UTSA (yes UTSA) for 500 yards the previous week. Illinois Coach Bret Bielema is likely going bulimic watching the game tapes of his defense and knowing that he has to face Tagovailoa Friday night.
The Terp defense is playing very well, as it held West Virginia to only 48 yards rushing and 2.3 yards per carry. Illinois has not done a terrific job running the rock, averaging only 3.9 yards per carry in their 3 contests. That will but too much pressure on backup QB Art Sitkowski (a Rutgers transfer), who has only been able to complete 57 percent of his passes, to try to keep up with the Maryland offense. Bottom line here is that the Terps beat West Virginia by 6. UTSA beat Illinois by 7 and Virginia beat Illinois by 28. Maryland (ranked #45) is better than UTSA and not too far from being as good as Virginia. West Virginia is certainly better than Illinois (ranked #93) is. If you want to hitch your wagon to Illinois season opener victory against Nebraska, you’re probably being misled. The Cornhuskers did everything they could to blow that game. I think the true Illinois team is what we saw the past 2 weeks, which isn’t very good. The home cooking isn’t going to be enough to fend off the Turtle Power. I’m laying the 7.5 on the half shell and the road chalk.
Same page on a lot of these.... like your intro. which I completely agree. I have found a great computer analysis score tout that has been spot on so lets see if they keep going + add in the eyetest
Have a good week
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Same page on a lot of these.... like your intro. which I completely agree. I have found a great computer analysis score tout that has been spot on so lets see if they keep going + add in the eyetest
Can we put a stop – please – on Miami once again being “the U”? This team has been living off of the faded glory of Jimmy Johnson and Larry “Let’s Do” Coker for decades now. Poor D'eriq King had given them a spark of credibility but sadly he’s not the same athlete he was prior to his injury and this team just isn’t as explosive offensively as they need to be to compete in the upper echelons of college football, at least not this year.
The fact that Bama thrashed the Canes just as badly as they beat Mercer last week isn’t too revealing, but what is more troubling is that they weren’t able to separate themselves from Appalachian State. In fact, Miami was really lucky to win that game…at home and down at halftime. What’s worse is that it’s likely that Miami lost two of their best players – RB Don Chaney Jr and LB Keontra Smith – two leg injuries in that game. Yes, Appalachian State is a good team, but they are a team that Miami is supposed to beat at home. They were really close to being an 0-2 team. A two-point win at home over an unranked opponent doesn’t justify a 6 point cushion over Sparty.
This isn’t your Sparty of last year. It’s time to believe what you see. Many of Michigan State's starters in 2021 are new additions via the hated transfer portal. Michigan State is 2-0 and they are averaging 40 points per game. Most impressive is their road win at Northwestern where they put up 38 points and over 500 yards against a team that only gave up 15 points per game last year, and played in the Big 10 championship. Even more eye popping was their 326 yards on the ground and 8.8 yards per carry in that game. You know what happens when you can run for 8.8 yards per carry on the road? You win, that’s what happens. Sparty followed that up with 272 yards rushing and 7.2 yards per carry last week against Youngstown State. Michigan State is ranked #3 in the country in yards rushing. Talk about finding a way to quiet a crowd. While the Hurricanes are capable of stopping the run, they are far from stout.
There’s no secret to what MSU will try to do on Saturday and, without Keontra Smith Miami is going to have to suck it up and take it. Their QB Thorne is the type of quarterback that Michigan State needed this year: a passer who makes good decisions and protects the football. Thorne has completed 29-of-46 passes for 458 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. With this kind of running attack and a sure handed QB, the Spartans will neutralize Miami’s big play defense which emphasizes running off the field with your helmet off and posing for the camera with the turnover chain. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games, and reputation alone isn’t going to be enough for them to keep the Spartans off the scoreboard to secure a comfy victory. In fact, this is going to be a physical game that will test every inch of the Hurricanes. I am taking the points and the road dogs +6.
0
Michigan state +6 MIAMI
Can we put a stop – please – on Miami once again being “the U”? This team has been living off of the faded glory of Jimmy Johnson and Larry “Let’s Do” Coker for decades now. Poor D'eriq King had given them a spark of credibility but sadly he’s not the same athlete he was prior to his injury and this team just isn’t as explosive offensively as they need to be to compete in the upper echelons of college football, at least not this year.
The fact that Bama thrashed the Canes just as badly as they beat Mercer last week isn’t too revealing, but what is more troubling is that they weren’t able to separate themselves from Appalachian State. In fact, Miami was really lucky to win that game…at home and down at halftime. What’s worse is that it’s likely that Miami lost two of their best players – RB Don Chaney Jr and LB Keontra Smith – two leg injuries in that game. Yes, Appalachian State is a good team, but they are a team that Miami is supposed to beat at home. They were really close to being an 0-2 team. A two-point win at home over an unranked opponent doesn’t justify a 6 point cushion over Sparty.
This isn’t your Sparty of last year. It’s time to believe what you see. Many of Michigan State's starters in 2021 are new additions via the hated transfer portal. Michigan State is 2-0 and they are averaging 40 points per game. Most impressive is their road win at Northwestern where they put up 38 points and over 500 yards against a team that only gave up 15 points per game last year, and played in the Big 10 championship. Even more eye popping was their 326 yards on the ground and 8.8 yards per carry in that game. You know what happens when you can run for 8.8 yards per carry on the road? You win, that’s what happens. Sparty followed that up with 272 yards rushing and 7.2 yards per carry last week against Youngstown State. Michigan State is ranked #3 in the country in yards rushing. Talk about finding a way to quiet a crowd. While the Hurricanes are capable of stopping the run, they are far from stout.
There’s no secret to what MSU will try to do on Saturday and, without Keontra Smith Miami is going to have to suck it up and take it. Their QB Thorne is the type of quarterback that Michigan State needed this year: a passer who makes good decisions and protects the football. Thorne has completed 29-of-46 passes for 458 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. With this kind of running attack and a sure handed QB, the Spartans will neutralize Miami’s big play defense which emphasizes running off the field with your helmet off and posing for the camera with the turnover chain. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games, and reputation alone isn’t going to be enough for them to keep the Spartans off the scoreboard to secure a comfy victory. In fact, this is going to be a physical game that will test every inch of the Hurricanes. I am taking the points and the road dogs +6.
This card should get you back into + territory. I will be on the Terps, and against the Canes (most of the season, the Alabama factor). I agree with almost your whole card (which should scare you, actually I am doing well in NCAA).
A couple you are looking at hadnt popped onto my radar yet. What are your thoughts on UMess? Too many points? LiMu EMU's THAT bad?
Wyoming at home is usually a safe bet, though it is better if out of conference team has to deal with altitude AND cold, which won't be the case for Ball State. Still, is this a pro Ball on fade WYO pick? Love to hear your thoughts, you probably have a good writeup on its way.
Definitely looking at Army (lotta points for them to cover but Can UConn stop them even once?), like Cindy and VT as well.
This season, I am going to skip the opening lines and wait to see any Covid crap at last minute before locking in. I will probably mot end up with the same lines as you, but think these are going to win regardless.
Good luck,
Manowarfan1
0
This card should get you back into + territory. I will be on the Terps, and against the Canes (most of the season, the Alabama factor). I agree with almost your whole card (which should scare you, actually I am doing well in NCAA).
A couple you are looking at hadnt popped onto my radar yet. What are your thoughts on UMess? Too many points? LiMu EMU's THAT bad?
Wyoming at home is usually a safe bet, though it is better if out of conference team has to deal with altitude AND cold, which won't be the case for Ball State. Still, is this a pro Ball on fade WYO pick? Love to hear your thoughts, you probably have a good writeup on its way.
Definitely looking at Army (lotta points for them to cover but Can UConn stop them even once?), like Cindy and VT as well.
This season, I am going to skip the opening lines and wait to see any Covid crap at last minute before locking in. I will probably mot end up with the same lines as you, but think these are going to win regardless.
I think UMASS is starting to show something offensively, so yes too many points. From the mind of a 20 year old kid, there's no question that they have this game circled as the one they could win, coming into camp. EMU doesn't really like to throw the ball and their offense was rather pedestrian against St Francis, who is a lot worse than UMASS and they had less than 100 yards offense against Wisconsin. UMASS is definitely a click better than UCONN.
Wyoming was lucky to win against Northern Illinois, who had 500 yards of offense but turned the ball over 3 times. Ball State offense is much better than Northern Illinois and they are a much better team in general.
After the first drive we'll know if Army will cover or not. UCONN certainly doesn't have the coaching discipline to sit down and figure out how to stop the triple option, let alone having the athletes - and their defense is a lot better than the teams that have already shut out UCONN.
Best of luck!
0
@Manowarfan1
I think UMASS is starting to show something offensively, so yes too many points. From the mind of a 20 year old kid, there's no question that they have this game circled as the one they could win, coming into camp. EMU doesn't really like to throw the ball and their offense was rather pedestrian against St Francis, who is a lot worse than UMASS and they had less than 100 yards offense against Wisconsin. UMASS is definitely a click better than UCONN.
Wyoming was lucky to win against Northern Illinois, who had 500 yards of offense but turned the ball over 3 times. Ball State offense is much better than Northern Illinois and they are a much better team in general.
After the first drive we'll know if Army will cover or not. UCONN certainly doesn't have the coaching discipline to sit down and figure out how to stop the triple option, let alone having the athletes - and their defense is a lot better than the teams that have already shut out UCONN.
If you’ve ever visited West Point you would be amazed at such an idyllic setting high up on the Hudson. What is even more amazing is that they train people how to kill people there. This weekend, Army is going to have a good opportunity to put their training into practice. The Huskies of UCONN are competing immensely hard against Akron, Soylent Green and New Mexico State to be ordained the most ass team in Division 1 FBS football. They are winning. So far against FBS competition, the UCONN defense has averaged giving up 47 points per game. Their offense is worse, having scored 0 points per game. That’s zero. It isn’t as if UCONN has played world beaters, teeing up against Fresno State (ranked #68) and Purdue (ranked #43). If you average 68 and 43, you get 55. Army is ranked #57, so it looks like Army has the horsepower to lay another 40+ points on UCONN.
People underestimate the effectiveness of how quickly the wishbone can score. In college football, the clock stops on first downs and Army gets a lot of them. Army offense is averaging 41 points per game. They beat Georgia State by 33 and Georgia State is a lot better than UCONN. Will Army show any mercy? Last year, in the 3 games they played really bad teams, Army won those games by an average of 35 points per game. Army has covered four of its last five games as favorites of at least 30 points. I like 80% odds on a 50% bet. Remember, UCONN isn’t really bad…they are the worst.
Remember, their coach resigned and they have one week to prepare to stop the wishbone after getting beaten by 49 by Purdue. How much attention do you think THIS Husky defense is going to pay when it comes down to assignment responsibility especially when they are getting the snot knocked out of them when Army fires off the line of scrimmage play after play after play. On the other side of the ball, Army learned a lesson last week about letting up. Army wasn’t happy about giving up three 4 quarter touchdowns to WKU last week, and neither were the people who bet on them. It’s likely their defense had to march around in their skivvies for 4 hours and do 700 pushups so they learn their lesson. It will assuredly not happen this week. If they can hold UCONN to zero at halftime, they will be working extra hard for the goose egg. I guess the sum of it all is to keep fading UCONN until they tell you that you need to stop doing it. Laying the big chalk on the Black Knights.
0
ARMY -33 connecticut
If you’ve ever visited West Point you would be amazed at such an idyllic setting high up on the Hudson. What is even more amazing is that they train people how to kill people there. This weekend, Army is going to have a good opportunity to put their training into practice. The Huskies of UCONN are competing immensely hard against Akron, Soylent Green and New Mexico State to be ordained the most ass team in Division 1 FBS football. They are winning. So far against FBS competition, the UCONN defense has averaged giving up 47 points per game. Their offense is worse, having scored 0 points per game. That’s zero. It isn’t as if UCONN has played world beaters, teeing up against Fresno State (ranked #68) and Purdue (ranked #43). If you average 68 and 43, you get 55. Army is ranked #57, so it looks like Army has the horsepower to lay another 40+ points on UCONN.
People underestimate the effectiveness of how quickly the wishbone can score. In college football, the clock stops on first downs and Army gets a lot of them. Army offense is averaging 41 points per game. They beat Georgia State by 33 and Georgia State is a lot better than UCONN. Will Army show any mercy? Last year, in the 3 games they played really bad teams, Army won those games by an average of 35 points per game. Army has covered four of its last five games as favorites of at least 30 points. I like 80% odds on a 50% bet. Remember, UCONN isn’t really bad…they are the worst.
Remember, their coach resigned and they have one week to prepare to stop the wishbone after getting beaten by 49 by Purdue. How much attention do you think THIS Husky defense is going to pay when it comes down to assignment responsibility especially when they are getting the snot knocked out of them when Army fires off the line of scrimmage play after play after play. On the other side of the ball, Army learned a lesson last week about letting up. Army wasn’t happy about giving up three 4 quarter touchdowns to WKU last week, and neither were the people who bet on them. It’s likely their defense had to march around in their skivvies for 4 hours and do 700 pushups so they learn their lesson. It will assuredly not happen this week. If they can hold UCONN to zero at halftime, they will be working extra hard for the goose egg. I guess the sum of it all is to keep fading UCONN until they tell you that you need to stop doing it. Laying the big chalk on the Black Knights.
UMASS is the place where Massholes go to drink their brains out. Amherst is a beautiful town during the day, that gets littered with red cups and urine at night. The Minutemen were a very strong Yankee Conference program, but when UCONN went FBS, UMASS felt compelled to follow. Ever since then, the result has been a complete disaster. The biggest mistake they made was agreeing to play their home games at Gillette Stadium, located 2 hours away from campus. That was pretty stupid, and the program became a mess. Last year, they finally decided to move the games back to campus and MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUM and the program has come alive at the Girk. Well…kind of alive.
There was a lot to like about what we saw in UMASS’ offense last week against BC. They were only trailing 14-0 at the half and put up 3 touchdowns in the 3 quarter (nope, these were not garbage time TD’s against the Eagle’s JV Defense) and got within 10 points in the 2 half. UMASS netted 335 yards of offense despite 3 turnovers and were able to run the ball consistently for 4 yards per carry, moving the chains for 20 first downs. It was a big improvement over week 1 at Pitt, and one gets the sense that UMASS is getting confidence, particularly at home. “I thought it was an unbelievably valiant effort by our guys,” UMass coach Walt Bell said. “As long as we do that around here, we’re going to have a chance.” So the Minutemen now believe they can win….enter Eastern Michigan.
The EMU Eagles gave up almost 300 yards of offense to St. Francis in their home opener. St. Francis is an FCS team ranked 93 in the FCS. That’s not very good. So they lost by 20 to Eastern Michigan and St Francis lost by 17 to Delaware. So Eastern Michigan isn’t much better than Delaware, if at all. Last week, EMU got all of 3 first downs against Wisconsin. Now, UMASS isn’t Wisconsin but when you can only get 3 first downs, it tells me there is something horribly wrong with your quarterback play. If UMASS can duplicate their 21 point effort that they had against BC (they actually scored 28), that means Eastern Michigan will need to score 40 points to cover – something they could not do at home against St. Francis. With Coastal Carolina looming on the UMASS schedule next week, you have to believe that the Minutemen will empty the tank trying for the “W” against Eastern Michigan. I’ll take the points inside the friendly confines of McGirk.
0
MASSACHUSETTS +18.5 eastern michigan
UMASS is the place where Massholes go to drink their brains out. Amherst is a beautiful town during the day, that gets littered with red cups and urine at night. The Minutemen were a very strong Yankee Conference program, but when UCONN went FBS, UMASS felt compelled to follow. Ever since then, the result has been a complete disaster. The biggest mistake they made was agreeing to play their home games at Gillette Stadium, located 2 hours away from campus. That was pretty stupid, and the program became a mess. Last year, they finally decided to move the games back to campus and MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUM and the program has come alive at the Girk. Well…kind of alive.
There was a lot to like about what we saw in UMASS’ offense last week against BC. They were only trailing 14-0 at the half and put up 3 touchdowns in the 3 quarter (nope, these were not garbage time TD’s against the Eagle’s JV Defense) and got within 10 points in the 2 half. UMASS netted 335 yards of offense despite 3 turnovers and were able to run the ball consistently for 4 yards per carry, moving the chains for 20 first downs. It was a big improvement over week 1 at Pitt, and one gets the sense that UMASS is getting confidence, particularly at home. “I thought it was an unbelievably valiant effort by our guys,” UMass coach Walt Bell said. “As long as we do that around here, we’re going to have a chance.” So the Minutemen now believe they can win….enter Eastern Michigan.
The EMU Eagles gave up almost 300 yards of offense to St. Francis in their home opener. St. Francis is an FCS team ranked 93 in the FCS. That’s not very good. So they lost by 20 to Eastern Michigan and St Francis lost by 17 to Delaware. So Eastern Michigan isn’t much better than Delaware, if at all. Last week, EMU got all of 3 first downs against Wisconsin. Now, UMASS isn’t Wisconsin but when you can only get 3 first downs, it tells me there is something horribly wrong with your quarterback play. If UMASS can duplicate their 21 point effort that they had against BC (they actually scored 28), that means Eastern Michigan will need to score 40 points to cover – something they could not do at home against St. Francis. With Coastal Carolina looming on the UMASS schedule next week, you have to believe that the Minutemen will empty the tank trying for the “W” against Eastern Michigan. I’ll take the points inside the friendly confines of McGirk.
You put alot of time into write-ups but it's the end result that you will be judged by, unfair as that may be. I want to see you nail this weekend, I'm cheering for you
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
0
You put alot of time into write-ups but it's the end result that you will be judged by, unfair as that may be. I want to see you nail this weekend, I'm cheering for you
Thanks for your suppport. I don't think you need to be a Rhodes scholar to know that over time flipping a coin will get you to a 50% win total. As a result, I don't see any value in reading someone's picks unless I know why they support either side. If people didn't want to read my analysis, my threads would have zero hits on this forum, but that does not seem to be the case. So I do appreciate when I hear people enjoy reading what I put out - win or lose. But of course, winning is better. Best of luck.
0
@mrusso
Thanks for your suppport. I don't think you need to be a Rhodes scholar to know that over time flipping a coin will get you to a 50% win total. As a result, I don't see any value in reading someone's picks unless I know why they support either side. If people didn't want to read my analysis, my threads would have zero hits on this forum, but that does not seem to be the case. So I do appreciate when I hear people enjoy reading what I put out - win or lose. But of course, winning is better. Best of luck.
You may not know this but I've been doing fairly extensive write-ups on Covers for years, not as many as you. I'm very selective in my betting, I'm only looking for 1 or 2 games/gems, on any given Saturday or Sunday, it's been successful for me. Done 3 write-ups this season, 1 college, 2 NFL, feel free to read them. GL again!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
0
@iamhuge
You may not know this but I've been doing fairly extensive write-ups on Covers for years, not as many as you. I'm very selective in my betting, I'm only looking for 1 or 2 games/gems, on any given Saturday or Sunday, it's been successful for me. Done 3 write-ups this season, 1 college, 2 NFL, feel free to read them. GL again!
There is something about the Hokies that has that certain je ne sais quoi. Their defense was impressive in their week 1 scolding of North Carolina. Then their offense did just enough to make me lose my bet last week against MTSU – finding a way to 226 yards rushing while holding Middle Tennessee to only 66 yards on the ground. That’s okay…I don’t hold a grudge.
The analysis is that they have tightened up the line of scrimmage significantly and have moved away from being a big play team with a scrambling QB to a dominate the front seven kind of team with a QB who minimizes mistakes. When you see that their play calling has been 64% run, you know that they are looking to control a game. What you might not know is QB Burmeister has some jets, and can run away from the secondary if he gets space. He was the Hokies’ second-leading rusher in the big win over the Tarheels. No one is mistaking him for Michael Vick, but he’s a winner and he likes dogs.
So this is where VT departs from West Virginia. First of all, I derive nothing from WVU’s smoting of LIU last week. Florida International pounded LIU the week before…this tells us nothing. More interesting is the 30-24 loss that West Virginia got handed by Maryland. Obviously, the Mountaneer defense just wasn’t good enough to hold a lead and win a game against a decent team. In fact, they weren’t good at all, giving up 500 yards of offense. They also struggled on offense, gaining only 48 rushing yards and 1.9 yards per carry. The fact that VT can control the line of scrimmage when they have the ball and that West Virginia cannot do the same thing when they have the ball means that WVU is the team that is likely to see third and longs and be prone to turnovers. That’s how you lose.
The 37 Massey Computers have Virginia Tech ranked #23 and West Virginia ranked #46. But for this game, VT is the underdog. Something smells rotten. Could it be because the Hokies lost their starting tight end and NFL prospect James Mitchell for the season? Big loss, but not enough to cost them a game against an inferior opponent. If seeing is believing, right now Virginia Tech’s resume is just better, and they are getting points so that’s why I’m taking them.
0
Virginia tech +2.5 WEST VIRGINIA
There is something about the Hokies that has that certain je ne sais quoi. Their defense was impressive in their week 1 scolding of North Carolina. Then their offense did just enough to make me lose my bet last week against MTSU – finding a way to 226 yards rushing while holding Middle Tennessee to only 66 yards on the ground. That’s okay…I don’t hold a grudge.
The analysis is that they have tightened up the line of scrimmage significantly and have moved away from being a big play team with a scrambling QB to a dominate the front seven kind of team with a QB who minimizes mistakes. When you see that their play calling has been 64% run, you know that they are looking to control a game. What you might not know is QB Burmeister has some jets, and can run away from the secondary if he gets space. He was the Hokies’ second-leading rusher in the big win over the Tarheels. No one is mistaking him for Michael Vick, but he’s a winner and he likes dogs.
So this is where VT departs from West Virginia. First of all, I derive nothing from WVU’s smoting of LIU last week. Florida International pounded LIU the week before…this tells us nothing. More interesting is the 30-24 loss that West Virginia got handed by Maryland. Obviously, the Mountaneer defense just wasn’t good enough to hold a lead and win a game against a decent team. In fact, they weren’t good at all, giving up 500 yards of offense. They also struggled on offense, gaining only 48 rushing yards and 1.9 yards per carry. The fact that VT can control the line of scrimmage when they have the ball and that West Virginia cannot do the same thing when they have the ball means that WVU is the team that is likely to see third and longs and be prone to turnovers. That’s how you lose.
The 37 Massey Computers have Virginia Tech ranked #23 and West Virginia ranked #46. But for this game, VT is the underdog. Something smells rotten. Could it be because the Hokies lost their starting tight end and NFL prospect James Mitchell for the season? Big loss, but not enough to cost them a game against an inferior opponent. If seeing is believing, right now Virginia Tech’s resume is just better, and they are getting points so that’s why I’m taking them.
Several points on Maryland's 30-24 win at home over West Virginia:
WV RB Brown gained 73 yds on 17 carries for a 4.3 / carry. The 48 yds and 2.3 stat is due to the QB sack yardage which counts against rushing yds.
Maryland, at home, was down 20-21 at halftime.
Maryland benefited from 4 TO's (2 fumbles and 2 int's) against none of their own.
Laying more than a TD on the road to a conference foe is something best done by a demonstrably superior team. Maryland's victory over WV is a very small sample size by which to judge Maryland's ability to cover the 7 1/2.
I will have no action on this game. I will watch it to get a better sense of Maryland's true ability.
Good luck on your bet.
0
@iamhuge
Several points on Maryland's 30-24 win at home over West Virginia:
WV RB Brown gained 73 yds on 17 carries for a 4.3 / carry. The 48 yds and 2.3 stat is due to the QB sack yardage which counts against rushing yds.
Maryland, at home, was down 20-21 at halftime.
Maryland benefited from 4 TO's (2 fumbles and 2 int's) against none of their own.
Laying more than a TD on the road to a conference foe is something best done by a demonstrably superior team. Maryland's victory over WV is a very small sample size by which to judge Maryland's ability to cover the 7 1/2.
I will have no action on this game. I will watch it to get a better sense of Maryland's true ability.
Hello, I am a very big fan of your posts. Like you mentioned, it is easy just to post a pick, but unless you have reasoning behind it and are willing to actually post your thoughts and reason behind your picks, then you are just flipping a coin.
Thank you and so many others on here that not only post picks, but they post the reason behind the picks.
I make all my numbers and have my reasoning behind them, then I look on here for you and a couple others to see if we agree or disagree. If we disagree I want to know why and see if I have missed something or we just disagree.
Thank you again very much for your posts.
Realscififan
0
@iamhuge
Hello, I am a very big fan of your posts. Like you mentioned, it is easy just to post a pick, but unless you have reasoning behind it and are willing to actually post your thoughts and reason behind your picks, then you are just flipping a coin.
Thank you and so many others on here that not only post picks, but they post the reason behind the picks.
I make all my numbers and have my reasoning behind them, then I look on here for you and a couple others to see if we agree or disagree. If we disagree I want to know why and see if I have missed something or we just disagree.
You make a couple of valid points. As you may recall, I actually picked WVU over Maryland and watched the whole game in dismay. I agree, I don't think Maryland's strength was their defense but I was particularly impressed with how well Maryland was able to move the ball in that game and particularly with the play of their QB. I also watched almost all of the UVA vs Illinois game because I had picked UVA. In this game, I was surprised at how poorly Illinois defense played, particularly in their pass coverage. I also hate laying points against a good team. We will both find out if Maryland is indeed demonstrably superior. Good luck this week.
0
@Jaccuse
You make a couple of valid points. As you may recall, I actually picked WVU over Maryland and watched the whole game in dismay. I agree, I don't think Maryland's strength was their defense but I was particularly impressed with how well Maryland was able to move the ball in that game and particularly with the play of their QB. I also watched almost all of the UVA vs Illinois game because I had picked UVA. In this game, I was surprised at how poorly Illinois defense played, particularly in their pass coverage. I also hate laying points against a good team. We will both find out if Maryland is indeed demonstrably superior. Good luck this week.
Thanks for the kind words. Having said that, you'd be in the money if you bet against me this year (and last year for that matter). Having said that, prior to that I've done pretty well on here. Good information is always valuable...sometimes we're lucky enough to know how to make use of it. Good luck this week.
0
@realscififan
Thanks for the kind words. Having said that, you'd be in the money if you bet against me this year (and last year for that matter). Having said that, prior to that I've done pretty well on here. Good information is always valuable...sometimes we're lucky enough to know how to make use of it. Good luck this week.
This could be a huge sucker bet. There is a 50% chance that Indiana is still a very good football team. If so, laying points on the road to a strong Power 5 school might be a BIG MISTAKE DAD. While it seems like everyone wants to discard the Hoosiers to the Big 10 trash heap because they fudged their duds against Iowa, if you look at the game they really didn’t play as badly as the final score of 34-6 might indicate (Iowa had two pick sixes). Penix had a bad game, 3 picks, trying to do too much against a defense that will rip your head off. (File note: Iowa is legit). Having said that, Indiana’s 56-14 humiliation of Idaho wasn’t really all that either as Indiana scored TD’s on a punt return and a blocked punt and the Hoosier pass defense wasn’t necessarily air tight. Still, they are a solid team and Massey has them deservingly ranked #24.
So no, this isn’t so much a bet against Indiana as much as it is a bet on Cincinnati. I am a mark for the Bearcats. I love this team. I love their coach and their QB is a stud. They play old school defense, ranked 11 in the country at 10.5 points per game allowed, and never want to give an inch as they only give up 3.7 yards per play (ranked 10 in the country). They were close to going undefeated last year, and nearly knocked off big bad Georgia in Atlanta at the Peach Bowl. This year, they beat the crap out of a Miami – OH team (49-14 despite 3 turnovers, which would have made the score much worse otherwise). Miami went on the road to Minnesota the next week and traded punches with them and outgained them despite losing a close 31-26 battle. Suffice to say, the Bearcats are far better than Minnesota and if Minnesota was laying 3 to Indiana, most people wouldn’t raise an eyebrow at that. Penix might not be the magic man he was last year, coming off of the torn ACL late last season, kind of like Superman without his cape. Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, for my money, is actually the better QB in this game. Every week is a playoff game for Cincinnati and they have a chip on their shoulder, the experience, the coach and the stamina to get it done every week. For Indiana this is a tough home game that doesn’t help them at all in the Big 10. It’s difficult to imagine that this would mean as much to them as it does to the Bearcats. Indiana might be a good team but we know Cincinnati is a good team. I’ll stick with what I know and lay the 3 on the Bearcats.
0
Cincinnati -3 INDIANA
This could be a huge sucker bet. There is a 50% chance that Indiana is still a very good football team. If so, laying points on the road to a strong Power 5 school might be a BIG MISTAKE DAD. While it seems like everyone wants to discard the Hoosiers to the Big 10 trash heap because they fudged their duds against Iowa, if you look at the game they really didn’t play as badly as the final score of 34-6 might indicate (Iowa had two pick sixes). Penix had a bad game, 3 picks, trying to do too much against a defense that will rip your head off. (File note: Iowa is legit). Having said that, Indiana’s 56-14 humiliation of Idaho wasn’t really all that either as Indiana scored TD’s on a punt return and a blocked punt and the Hoosier pass defense wasn’t necessarily air tight. Still, they are a solid team and Massey has them deservingly ranked #24.
So no, this isn’t so much a bet against Indiana as much as it is a bet on Cincinnati. I am a mark for the Bearcats. I love this team. I love their coach and their QB is a stud. They play old school defense, ranked 11 in the country at 10.5 points per game allowed, and never want to give an inch as they only give up 3.7 yards per play (ranked 10 in the country). They were close to going undefeated last year, and nearly knocked off big bad Georgia in Atlanta at the Peach Bowl. This year, they beat the crap out of a Miami – OH team (49-14 despite 3 turnovers, which would have made the score much worse otherwise). Miami went on the road to Minnesota the next week and traded punches with them and outgained them despite losing a close 31-26 battle. Suffice to say, the Bearcats are far better than Minnesota and if Minnesota was laying 3 to Indiana, most people wouldn’t raise an eyebrow at that. Penix might not be the magic man he was last year, coming off of the torn ACL late last season, kind of like Superman without his cape. Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, for my money, is actually the better QB in this game. Every week is a playoff game for Cincinnati and they have a chip on their shoulder, the experience, the coach and the stamina to get it done every week. For Indiana this is a tough home game that doesn’t help them at all in the Big 10. It’s difficult to imagine that this would mean as much to them as it does to the Bearcats. Indiana might be a good team but we know Cincinnati is a good team. I’ll stick with what I know and lay the 3 on the Bearcats.
Why would anyone on the planet care about this game? Well for starters, I like money. The Cowboys had a horseshoe up their ass by pulling at a win over Northern Illinois last week. They scored a TD with less than 2 minutes remaining in the game to take the win 50-43. First of all, when you give up 43 points and 477 yards of offense, 244 yards rushing and 6.4 yards per carry, that’s not good. The narrow victory was secured even though Northern Illinois had 3 turnovers. If the Huskies had played a clean game, they would have won. By the way, Northern Illinois is not as good as Ball State (Massey Composite has NIU at 106 and Ball State ranked at 79). Seen enough? How about this one? In week 1, Wyoming played FCS team Montana State and had to score a 21 yard TD pass with 47 seconds left in the game to win that one 19-16. Call these guys the too close for comfort Cowboys.
The Ball State Cardinals were 7-1 last season, winning the MAC championship and their bowl game against a tough San Jose State squad. Senior QB Drew Pitt, one of the best Group of Five quarterbacks in the country, returns for his 3 season as a starter. Being on the road doesn’t rattle him. He has a pair of returning All MAC senior receivers to toss the ball too as well AND they have their entire starting offensive line from last season. Ball State has 16 seniors who took advantage of the COVID loophole to return. On defense they return 9 starters. They have a ton of experience and talent. So what’s the problem? They have played like shit so far this season…doesn’t make any sense..yet. They loafed through their first game against FCS Western Illinois and then they mailed it in against a superior Penn State team last week, not rising up to the challenge. “We’re just not clicking from an offensive standpoint right now and we’ve got to get that fixed,” Ball State Coach Mike Neu said after the game in Happy Valley. “It starts with me.” Ball State really needs this game to stop the bleeding as they have Toledo and Army in the next two tilts. Three bad performances in a row with so much returning talent would be a concern. Something doesn’t add up. It is now or never. This team just should be playing a lot better, based on returning talent alone. The Cardinals are good enough to win this game outright, if they show up….so I will take the 6 points for the road Cards.
0
Ball state +6 WYOMING
Why would anyone on the planet care about this game? Well for starters, I like money. The Cowboys had a horseshoe up their ass by pulling at a win over Northern Illinois last week. They scored a TD with less than 2 minutes remaining in the game to take the win 50-43. First of all, when you give up 43 points and 477 yards of offense, 244 yards rushing and 6.4 yards per carry, that’s not good. The narrow victory was secured even though Northern Illinois had 3 turnovers. If the Huskies had played a clean game, they would have won. By the way, Northern Illinois is not as good as Ball State (Massey Composite has NIU at 106 and Ball State ranked at 79). Seen enough? How about this one? In week 1, Wyoming played FCS team Montana State and had to score a 21 yard TD pass with 47 seconds left in the game to win that one 19-16. Call these guys the too close for comfort Cowboys.
The Ball State Cardinals were 7-1 last season, winning the MAC championship and their bowl game against a tough San Jose State squad. Senior QB Drew Pitt, one of the best Group of Five quarterbacks in the country, returns for his 3 season as a starter. Being on the road doesn’t rattle him. He has a pair of returning All MAC senior receivers to toss the ball too as well AND they have their entire starting offensive line from last season. Ball State has 16 seniors who took advantage of the COVID loophole to return. On defense they return 9 starters. They have a ton of experience and talent. So what’s the problem? They have played like shit so far this season…doesn’t make any sense..yet. They loafed through their first game against FCS Western Illinois and then they mailed it in against a superior Penn State team last week, not rising up to the challenge. “We’re just not clicking from an offensive standpoint right now and we’ve got to get that fixed,” Ball State Coach Mike Neu said after the game in Happy Valley. “It starts with me.” Ball State really needs this game to stop the bleeding as they have Toledo and Army in the next two tilts. Three bad performances in a row with so much returning talent would be a concern. Something doesn’t add up. It is now or never. This team just should be playing a lot better, based on returning talent alone. The Cardinals are good enough to win this game outright, if they show up….so I will take the 6 points for the road Cards.
Is Toledo every bit as good as Notre Dame? Probably not. Is Colorado State every bit as bad as Vanderbilt? Probably not. But after watching a good bit of both games, I saw one team that fought hard through every whistle and another team that was looking for a place to smoke weed. CSU was God awful in the second half against Vanderbilt, and they were significantly outplayed. When Toledo played a bad team in week 1, they won by 39 points. The Rockets have starting experience returning at every position from last year – 60 returning letter winners from a team that lost only 2 games by 3 points each, and that’s why they were not phased by their big moment last week against the Irish.
Toledo had Notre Dame so upset that Brian Kelly screwed up his joke in the post game interview. And by the way, Rudy was offsides when he got the sack. The Rockets are home. Their kids are heroes for nearly pulling off the big upset, and this weekend they are lining up to connect the “W”. The fact that they ran the ball against the Irish for 4.1 yds per carry while they were keeping the game close means that their line of scrimmage play was not at all overwhelmed by an opponent that should have been physically superior. Toledo clearly has enough offense to put up points and cover this spread. Colorado State was not able to stop Vandy from driving twice at the end of the game. Addazio has a real mess on his hands.
Toledo QB Carter Bradley has done well so far, completing 64% of his passes so far for 10 yards per attempt and no interceptions. The Rams quarterback, while talented, seems to lose his poise in the pocket and missed open receivers time after time whenever they needed a key first down last week. It’s true the Rams have some talent and this is a big number to cover but I think the Rockets disappointment from last week will be converted to a resounding W this week…laying the chalk and the 14 on Toledo.
0
TOLEDO -14 colorado state
Is Toledo every bit as good as Notre Dame? Probably not. Is Colorado State every bit as bad as Vanderbilt? Probably not. But after watching a good bit of both games, I saw one team that fought hard through every whistle and another team that was looking for a place to smoke weed. CSU was God awful in the second half against Vanderbilt, and they were significantly outplayed. When Toledo played a bad team in week 1, they won by 39 points. The Rockets have starting experience returning at every position from last year – 60 returning letter winners from a team that lost only 2 games by 3 points each, and that’s why they were not phased by their big moment last week against the Irish.
Toledo had Notre Dame so upset that Brian Kelly screwed up his joke in the post game interview. And by the way, Rudy was offsides when he got the sack. The Rockets are home. Their kids are heroes for nearly pulling off the big upset, and this weekend they are lining up to connect the “W”. The fact that they ran the ball against the Irish for 4.1 yds per carry while they were keeping the game close means that their line of scrimmage play was not at all overwhelmed by an opponent that should have been physically superior. Toledo clearly has enough offense to put up points and cover this spread. Colorado State was not able to stop Vandy from driving twice at the end of the game. Addazio has a real mess on his hands.
Toledo QB Carter Bradley has done well so far, completing 64% of his passes so far for 10 yards per attempt and no interceptions. The Rams quarterback, while talented, seems to lose his poise in the pocket and missed open receivers time after time whenever they needed a key first down last week. It’s true the Rams have some talent and this is a big number to cover but I think the Rockets disappointment from last week will be converted to a resounding W this week…laying the chalk and the 14 on Toledo.
Some people may ask….Why do you bet on shitty teams? The answer is, because they are playing shittier teams. Charlotte comes out of the gate 2-0 after a convincing win last week over Gardner Webb as they ran for 306 yards and 6.7 yards per carry. Of course this is none too impressive against a lower tier FCS team. Much more impressive was their 478 yards of offense they racked up in their come from behind victory over Duke. What’s the point here?
The point is that they are facing Georgia State, a team whose defense is flat out ass. Army ran on them for 258 yards in week 1. Yeah, well Army runs on everyone. In week 2, North Carolina passed all over the Panthers for 406 yards and total offense of 607 yards in a 59-17 destruction of the Panthers. So we have the Charlotte defense which has given up 19 points per game and we have the Georgia State defense which has given up 51 points per game. Oh, by the way, Georgia State’s offense offense is ranked 120th in total offense. What is revealing about how bad Georgia State is the fact that UNC lost their other game that they played. Even more illuminating is the fact that while Army beat Georgia State by 33 points, they only beat WKU by 3 points. WKU is ranked #93 and Charlotte is ranked #97 – pretty similar - which would lead one to believe that Charlotte would do a lot better against Army than Georgia State did…which leads you to believe that perhaps Charlotte is a better team than Georgia State is.
Charlotte’s senior captain Chris Reynolds became the program’s new all-time career leader in passing yards. I watched the Duke game and you could tell that the 49ers have a cohesive team this year, under his leadership. They never gave up. Charlotte is getting 2.5 points for this contest against a team that hasn’t stopped anyone yet. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Give me the points and the better team and I’ll watch the 49ers roll. AAAAAAAH NINERS!
0
Charlotte +2.5 GEORGIA STATE
Some people may ask….Why do you bet on shitty teams? The answer is, because they are playing shittier teams. Charlotte comes out of the gate 2-0 after a convincing win last week over Gardner Webb as they ran for 306 yards and 6.7 yards per carry. Of course this is none too impressive against a lower tier FCS team. Much more impressive was their 478 yards of offense they racked up in their come from behind victory over Duke. What’s the point here?
The point is that they are facing Georgia State, a team whose defense is flat out ass. Army ran on them for 258 yards in week 1. Yeah, well Army runs on everyone. In week 2, North Carolina passed all over the Panthers for 406 yards and total offense of 607 yards in a 59-17 destruction of the Panthers. So we have the Charlotte defense which has given up 19 points per game and we have the Georgia State defense which has given up 51 points per game. Oh, by the way, Georgia State’s offense offense is ranked 120th in total offense. What is revealing about how bad Georgia State is the fact that UNC lost their other game that they played. Even more illuminating is the fact that while Army beat Georgia State by 33 points, they only beat WKU by 3 points. WKU is ranked #93 and Charlotte is ranked #97 – pretty similar - which would lead one to believe that Charlotte would do a lot better against Army than Georgia State did…which leads you to believe that perhaps Charlotte is a better team than Georgia State is.
Charlotte’s senior captain Chris Reynolds became the program’s new all-time career leader in passing yards. I watched the Duke game and you could tell that the 49ers have a cohesive team this year, under his leadership. They never gave up. Charlotte is getting 2.5 points for this contest against a team that hasn’t stopped anyone yet. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Give me the points and the better team and I’ll watch the 49ers roll. AAAAAAAH NINERS!
Oh those silly Aztecs. They had everyone fooled into thinking they were a sucky team when they only played one half of football and sleepwalked through their Week 1 victory over New Mexico State. Well the Red Bull finally kicked in, because in week 2, they beat the stuffing out of Arizona, at Arizona (who only lost by 8 to BYU) by the score of 38-14. In that game, the Aztecs held the Wildcats to 51 yards rushing, 2.6 yards per carry and only 9 first downs. They also helped themselves to 454 yards of offense and 271 yards rushing. Yup…old school. Stop the run, play defense and run the ball down their throats. The Aztecs have the #1 scoring defense in NCAA football. I love it.
Now look what happened when BYU played Arizona. In that game, the Wildcats had 426 yards of offense and 27 first downs. Why do I mention this? Because Utah did not do as well as Arizona did against BYU (340 yards of offense and only 15 first downs). Using BYU as the common denominator, San Diego State is the better team, they are getting 7 points and they are home in their game against the Utes. That’s a lot to consider. So what’s going on here? Clearly the bettors are spooked by the fact that SDSU’s starting QB Jordan Brookshire is doubtful for the game. Waaaa Waaa Waaa, call the Waambulance. Nothing to see here…keep on walking. Backup Senior QB Lucas Johnson barely lost the job to Brookshire in fall camp. He has started games before for both Georgia Tech and for SDSU last year during their successful campaign (no interceptions and a QB rating of 135). The Aztecs had plenty of first team snaps to give to Johnson this week. No worries, no deer in the headlights here and, honestly, Brookshire hasn’t been great this year anyway.
The Aztecs are 6-2 against Pac-12 teams over the past six seasons. This team has no issues squaring up against a Power 5 team. Frankly, using Power and Pac-12 in the same phrase is a bit of an oxymoron. Let’s not get too excited about UCLA and Oregon just yet. When push comes to shove, home dogs and the better defense will take you to the pay window. I’m on the Aztecs +7.
0
SAN DIEGO STATE +7 utah
Oh those silly Aztecs. They had everyone fooled into thinking they were a sucky team when they only played one half of football and sleepwalked through their Week 1 victory over New Mexico State. Well the Red Bull finally kicked in, because in week 2, they beat the stuffing out of Arizona, at Arizona (who only lost by 8 to BYU) by the score of 38-14. In that game, the Aztecs held the Wildcats to 51 yards rushing, 2.6 yards per carry and only 9 first downs. They also helped themselves to 454 yards of offense and 271 yards rushing. Yup…old school. Stop the run, play defense and run the ball down their throats. The Aztecs have the #1 scoring defense in NCAA football. I love it.
Now look what happened when BYU played Arizona. In that game, the Wildcats had 426 yards of offense and 27 first downs. Why do I mention this? Because Utah did not do as well as Arizona did against BYU (340 yards of offense and only 15 first downs). Using BYU as the common denominator, San Diego State is the better team, they are getting 7 points and they are home in their game against the Utes. That’s a lot to consider. So what’s going on here? Clearly the bettors are spooked by the fact that SDSU’s starting QB Jordan Brookshire is doubtful for the game. Waaaa Waaa Waaa, call the Waambulance. Nothing to see here…keep on walking. Backup Senior QB Lucas Johnson barely lost the job to Brookshire in fall camp. He has started games before for both Georgia Tech and for SDSU last year during their successful campaign (no interceptions and a QB rating of 135). The Aztecs had plenty of first team snaps to give to Johnson this week. No worries, no deer in the headlights here and, honestly, Brookshire hasn’t been great this year anyway.
The Aztecs are 6-2 against Pac-12 teams over the past six seasons. This team has no issues squaring up against a Power 5 team. Frankly, using Power and Pac-12 in the same phrase is a bit of an oxymoron. Let’s not get too excited about UCLA and Oregon just yet. When push comes to shove, home dogs and the better defense will take you to the pay window. I’m on the Aztecs +7.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
