Jimmydafreak

Well, it's true.  I believe Alabama's front 7 will go down as one of the best in college football history.  Alabama's defense is far superior on every level (defensive line, linebacking and secondary) than anything Clemson has faced all season.  The closest thing Clemson has faced to an Alabama defense is Florida State, and the Seminoles defense is simply not on Alabama's level as clearly evidenced by their bowl game against Houston.

I think that is not far off.  I will try to cobble together a write-up by tomorrow night.

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

 nice work in those bowls Freak, Happy New Year to one of the only Bama fans I can stomach 

Thank you Wahoo!!!  The respect for a fellow Virginia boy is quite mutual!!!  Fantastic job this season!!!

I think my favorite play of the week is Washington over Green Bay.  I faded Green Bay last week too.  Green Bay has some serious offensive issues that I don't think will be solved in Landover, Maryland this Sunday.  I think the only chance Green Bay has is for Eddie Lacy to have a huge game to open up the passing game for Rogers.

Couple that with the fact that ever since Jay Gruden has taken the shackles off of Kirk Cousins, he and the offense have really responded well, and have found a new gear.

Unless Green Bay can find a way to get Eddie Lacy going, I think this will be a rather convincing win for the Redskins.

My play:

Green Bay @ Washington Pk

The Saturday AFC playoff game features Ben Roethlisberger vs. AJ McCarron.  I expect McCarron and the Bengals defense to play well and keep this game relatively close.  But in the end, how can I go against a hot team with a hot veteran quarterback who has been here many times in his career.

My Play:

Pittsburgh -2.5 (Hook) @ Cincinnati

This might be my co-favorite game.  If the Seahawks bring their A-game to Minneapolis on Sunday, they should win this game convincingly.

The Vikings are my favorite NFL team, but they are simply not potent enough in the passing game to hang with a well-balanced team like Seattle.  Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings passing offense versus the Seattle secondary is a complete mismatch in favor of the Seahawks.  We witnessed it the first time these teams met five weeks ago (a 38-7 drubbing in Minnesota) when the Vikings could only muster 94 yards in passing offense despite being down huge early.  I think the Vikings will keep it a little closer than 38-7 this time around, but in the end the Vikings simply will not be able to keep this game within arm's reach in the 4th quarter.  Look for a repeat of the December 6th result.

My Plays:

Seattle -5 @ Minnesota

Seattle 2nd Half @ Minnesota

I expect the Kansas City/Houston game to be a very low-scoring slugfest.  Houston gets Brian Hoyer back this week, but is that really something Houston can hang their hat on.  I suppose he does give Houston the best shot to win the game, but I expect Kansas City's defense to pretty much shut Houston down offensively.

My Plays:

Kansas City @ Houston UNDER 20 (1st Half)

Houston Team Total UNDER 18

I forgot one additional play:

Minnesota Team Total UNDER 17

. . . all day long!!!

I like Alabama minus whatever.  I think they win the game by an absolutely minimum of two touchdowns.

I think the total is very, very sharp.  I suspect that those who like the OVER are expecting Clemson to get into the 20s in this game, something I honestly don't think will happen.  I would not be surprised to see Alabama eclipse the 40-point mark however, so I have a very slight lean to the OVER.  And even though I won't be betting it, I also lean UNDER 1st half.

My Plays:

Alabama -6.5 (hook if needed) vs. Clemson

Clemson Team Total UNDER 22

Alabama Team Total OVER 29

I seriously thought about it going.  Tickets are plentiful and selling below face value, and I have a free place to stay in Vegas, so I suppose it's not too late if I change my mind.  But if I did come, how in the world would I find you - you being all incognegro and all!!!

The funny thing about the Clemson/Oklahoma game is that I was all over Clemson from the start, and then talked myself out of it at the last moment.  I do think it would have been a closer game had Samaje Perine not gone down.  But then again, Clemson lost Shaq Lawson, so I suppose the injuries were a wash.

I honestly think the biggest difference in the Alabama/Clemson game is going to be turnovers - something Clemson has struggled with this season.  And because Clemson is not accustom to facing an NFL caliber defense like Alabama's, I think they will turn the ball over at least three times.  I don't think Alabama will turn the ball over at all.  If Clemson can avoid the turnover pitfall, and I don't think they can, this game will be closer than many people think.

Of all the playoff games, Pittsburgh is by far my least favorite.  Cincinnati is a very solid football team from top to bottom, so I would not be shocked if they pulled out a win at home.  I don't think the score will be quite as high as you predict however.  To me, this feels like a field goal game one way or the other.  If that is so, Cincinnati +3.5 may very well be the better play here.  I will call for a final score of 23-20 Pittsburgh.

Look, anyone who has followed me for any length of time knows I have never been a big fan of any QB in the Saban era, and much of that has nothing to do with their skills as a QB.  It has a lot more to do with being an arrogant prick.  That said, John Parker Wilson was a decent guy, and certainly not an arrogant prick, and I really like Jake Coker as a human being.  He is someone who is humble, very grateful for the opportunity to be the QB at Alabama.  I don't mind a little cockiness, because I too can be cocky at times, but just don't be a total douche.

That said, AJ McCarron is a competent QB when he has time to set his feet and scan the field.  He knows how to read defenses, and go through his progression.  His problem is that if the defense can get him off of his square, he has zero playmaking ability on the run.  Once he is flushed from the pocket, he has no ability to create.  You might call him the anti-Johnny Football.  So I know if I were the Steelers DC, I would be bringing heat in spades.

Because of the Ben Roethlisberger vs. AJ McCarron matchup, I do lean slightly to the Steelers here, but would not be shocked if the Bengals pulled it out.

I completely agree with your assessment of the Chiefs/Texans game.  The Texans is a team that I have been riding heavily for about the last 5 or 6 weeks of the season, and I believe their defense can keep them in this game.  I also believe they have a legitimate shot to win.

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:



first time I have read any of your thoughts on this game.

I completely disagree... I thin Clemson is without question the best team Alabama will see all year.

The difference in this game is the Clemson DL. They will harass Coker ALL NIGHT LONG.

GL Freak... But Clemson will win this game bud

Glad to see you out of the box Boom.  I would hate for Clemson to make the championship game and you not to be able to weigh in on the game.

This is the only game left to talk about (unless we get into Jacksonville State vs. North Dakota State, and shockingly I lean towards the team from Alabama there as well), so I very much welcome all opinions on the Alabama/Clemson game.  That's what a gambling forum is all about.  Let's throw all the info we can out there, and let people make an informed choice.

That said, I have finished watching all of Clemson's meaningful games, and am ready to put together a write-up.  I have spoiled my write-up to some extent because I have already revealed what I like, but sometimes it does help people when you explain how you see this game playing out.  As an Alabama fan I try not to be overly bias towards Alabama when analyzing games, but as much as I try to suppress that urge, I think some bias invariably leaks out.

Boom does bring up a good point, and I think it is an area that I believe Clemson must be successful to have a chance to knock off Alabama, and that is the ability to harass Coker.  I actually think Clemson may have some success in doing just that, but I don't think it will be to the extent that it will significantly affect the outcome of the game.  Keep in mind that Alabama's offensive line practices against the best defensive front in college football everyday in practice.  That doesn't mean that Clemson's very talented defensive front won't have some success, because I believe they will, but I promise you there is nothing that Clemson can throw at them that will shell-shock them.

I also agree with Boom in that I also believe that Clemson may be the best team from top to bottom that Alabama has faced this season although, other than QB, I don't think any particular unit is much better than what Alabama has seen most of the season . . . if you follow my convoluted logic there.

And I know Boom will disagree with what I'm going to say here, but I think the absolute best bet in this game is OVER Alabama's team total.  I promise you that Alabama absolutely WILL get into the 30s in this game, and depending on how generous Clemson is with the turnovers, possibly the 40s.

Quote Originally Posted by MDnightFlight:

Clemson turnovers definitely a concern. BUT Clemson is +7 turnover margin combined in the following games: FSU, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Notre Dame. 

I am aware of the numbers, but my logic is that Clemson has not faced a defense that is even in the same galaxy as what they will see Monday night, and that will force them into mistakes, ie. turnovers.  Now of course I could be wrong about that, but I am very confident I won't be.  I think Clemson will give the ball away at least three times in this game.