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Kentucky -3 vs Missouri. ****Bomb droppin' time ****

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Posted: #1
I understand money management, I really  do. However, this isnt my job. This is my hobby, vice, passion and about #10 in loves of my life.When I see lines I perceive to be awful, I up the ante. Gamblers flaw?Perhaps. I wont argue semantics. If you think not flat betting is wrong, you can be right today. Congrats. Now, on to the game.....

Is Kentucky going to the title game this year? Nope. However, I fully expect them to dominate saturday. They are at home, at night & with confidence. They held Florida to 125 passing yards and leading back to 45 yards. Killer was Griers escapability. The Gator defense was stoudt, holding UK to 241 total yards while getting 6 sacks and 2 ints.....

Mizzou is in trouble. Being 3-0 and last 2 years success has this line where it is. Maty Mauk has looked dreadful. The reason? The skill positions surrounding him are atrocious. Hansborough (top rb) is injured. Receiving core is gone from last year and this years group is slow. The OL is weak at best. They are gonna struggle all day with the UK front 7. On the other side of the ball, Mizzous defense has looked ok, but that has been vs SEMO, Ark St & UConn.....Patrick Towles will have success and should get plenty of protection and time. The UK running game should have success as the MU d line is nothing special and will not be able to get Florida type pressure....

I expect a big UK win. I've been wrong before (crazy, I know!!). I dont think Ive lost a large bet against Mizzou in several years. Biggest bet of my life was an easy winner a couple yeras ago when Bama visited...

UK losing to Florida was a good thing. I was hoping for this exact setup (UK loss & MU win)....Line is actually all it can be. Perception has these teams dead even on a neutral field, but these teams are going in opposite directions this season....


Biggest bet since that Bama game a few years ago....


UK 37 Mizzou 13


 
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Posted: #2
I'm with you. Go get um bro.
 
Legend
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GL TRAIN

 
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It's my pick of the month. Going to buy a bottle of Bombay and enjoy this thrashing. 
 
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I know this may sound a little nutty, but do you ever feel like the more folks are on a "Big Play" the less likely it is to hit? I seen no fukin reason Stanford should've been in the game last week. USC should've lapped them 100 times, and look what happened! I love UK and they are the pick in this game, but Mizzu has burned me soooooooo many times when I doubt them.! Maybe change the title to UK extra small fingers crossed wishful hoping game of the week,? Lololololol... Good luck Boss! And I'm already on UK-2.5 (bought half)
 
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Hmmm.. I may have to add this one ... Y
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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This one will find its way on my card. 
 
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Posted: #8
On it as a big play as well T69....go KY


 
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Quote Originally Posted by chad77:

I know this may sound a little nutty, but do you ever feel like the more folks are on a "Big Play" the less likely it is to hit? I seen no fukin reason Stanford should've been in the game last week. USC should've lapped them 100 times, and look what happened! I love UK and they are the pick in this game, but Mizzu has burned me soooooooo many times when I doubt them.! Maybe change the title to UK extra small fingers crossed wishful hoping game of the week,? Lololololol... Good luck Boss! And I'm already on UK-2.5 (bought half)

Missouri is 0-3 ATS this year. If you haven't doubted them this season you aren't doing your homework. 
 
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Posted: #10

I think you have it right Train... I watched some of Mizzou Sat and it was painful.....  

 
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I'm a lifelong mizzou guy and have had them cost me on the .over last week. Doubt pinkel on the road getting his running back back this week at your own risk. Hansbrough is a difference maker. And I point to pinkel putting Drew lock in last week In The fourth quarter up only three,he is about to pull the plug on mauk. The team wants lock and the fans are done with mauk.

The defense is legit, and I promise you Kentucky doesn't score 2/3 of the 37 you project.

Mizzou had won 13 straight true road games outright and pinkel against spread as road dog is stout. I won't bet them Except in a parlay or two, but I expect them to win this game.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by mizzouleg3nd:

I'm a lifelong mizzou guy and have had them cost me on the .over last week. Doubt pinkel on the road getting his running back back this week at your own risk. Hansbrough is a difference maker. And I point to pinkel putting Drew lock in last week In The fourth quarter up only three,he is about to pull the plug on mauk. The team wants lock and the fans are done with mauk.

The defense is legit, and I promise you Kentucky doesn't score 2/3 of the 37 you project.

Mizzou had won 13 straight true road games outright and pinkel against spread as road dog is stout. I won't bet them Except in a parlay or two, but I expect them to win this game.

Missouri has had some really tough tests defensively with SE Missouri State, Arkansas State, and UCONN. Wow talk about some barnburners. They are going to hold Kentucky to negative points. 

Russell Hansbrough is probable but UK's rush defense has looked good this season. Hasbrough only 15 carries 19 yards vs. Kentucky last year. Missouri only 320 yards of offense vs. Kentucky last year. Think Kentucky performs much better this time around defensively and offensively. 
 
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Posted: #13
UK putting up 37? Really? Not that Mizzou's defense is that great, but they're not that bad either. Nor is KY jelly's offense that smooth. Small play on KY for me.  To you Train.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by mizzouleg3nd:

I'm a lifelong mizzou guy and have had them cost me on the .over last week. Doubt pinkel on the road getting his running back back this week at your own risk. Hansbrough is a difference maker. And I point to pinkel putting Drew lock in last week In The fourth quarter up only three,he is about to pull the plug on mauk. The team wants lock and the fans are done with mauk.

The defense is legit, and I promise you Kentucky doesn't score 2/3 of the 37 you project.

Mizzou had won 13 straight true road games outright and pinkel against spread as road dog is stout. I won't bet them Except in a parlay or two, but I expect them to win this game.
So you're banking on a rb that may play in a game that would be his 1st of the season and a team with a qb controversy who has struggled to do anything vs 3 terrible opponents.....

GL with that sir  
 
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Posted: #15
Agree. I'm thinking more like 20-6 KY. 
 
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Posted: #16
With u bro
 
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I'll play with you
 
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Quote Originally Posted by mizzouleg3nd:

I'm a lifelong mizzou guy and have had them cost me on the .over last week. Doubt pinkel on the road getting his running back back this week at your own risk. Hansbrough is a difference maker. And I point to pinkel putting Drew lock in last week In The fourth quarter up only three,he is about to pull the plug on mauk. The team wants lock and the fans are done with mauk.

The defense is legit, and I promise you Kentucky doesn't score 2/3 of the 37 you project.

Mizzou had won 13 straight true road games outright and pinkel against spread as road dog is stout. I won't bet them Except in a parlay or two, but I expect them to win this game.

 and mizz 10 - 1 vs the number on the road I dont know 
 
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Posted: #20
Everything screams Kentucky here. But this gives me pause. Line is now Kentucky -2.5.  I might take the ML on Mizz just for fun.    
Devinne
 
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Posted: #21
SO......you wanna fade PINKEL as a short (<7) road dog do ya?
  *proceed with great caution

Last 11X.......he's only lost the game ONCE .....and covered 10
  $  10-1 SU / 10-0-1 ATS


11/22/14    MIZZOU     29      TENN     21     W     -5.0     W     48.5     O

11/15/14     MIZZOU     34     TEXA&M     27     W     -3.5     W     55.5     O

10/18/14     MIZZOU     42     FLA     13     W     -6.5     W     45.0     O

09/27/14     MIZZOU     21     S.CARO     20     W    
-6.5     W     60.5     U

10/12/13     MIZZOU     41     GEORGI     26     W     -6.5     W     66.0     O

11/10/12     MIZZOU     51     TENN     48     W     -3.5     W     61.0     O

09/29/12     MIZZOU     21     UCF     16     W     -1.5     W     48.5     U

11/05/11     MIZZOU     39     BAYLOR     42     L     -3.0     P     74.5     O

10/16/10     MIZZOU     30     TEXA&M     9     W     -3.5     W     57.0     U

11/14/09     MIZZOU     38     KAN.ST     12     W     -2.0     W     50.0     P

09/05/09     MIZZOU     37     ILLINO     9     W     -7.0     W     59.0     U
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #22
I like the play. Mizzou has looked like dogshit so far this year! 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by chad77:

I know this may sound a little nutty, but do you ever feel like the more folks are on a "Big Play" the less likely it is to hit? I seen no fukin reason Stanford should've been in the game last week. USC should've lapped them 100 times, and look what happened! I love UK and they are the pick in this game, but Mizzu has burned me soooooooo many times when I doubt them.! Maybe change the title to UK extra small fingers crossed wishful hoping game of the week,? Lololololol... Good luck Boss! And I'm already on UK-2.5 (bought half)
Its bad luck to be superstitious
 
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Posted: #24
@Train is Mizzou your team?  Just curious how well you know them bc I see they are ranked still which makes me think they must at least have the talent to turn things around on any given weekend.

I'm considering laying 2 dimes on this game.  I'm not a volume player so I wait to find the ones I really like and then hammer.  Part of that process is checking any and all angles.

Any additional insight or reasons of concern would be greatly greatly appreciated!
 
 
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 GL TRAIN
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