Let's analyze one of the worst games

I'm talking about New Mexico State at San Jose State.  I think we can make some cash on this game.  The Aggies are a bad team, but they are still trying, and they aren't quite as terrible as people think.  The average score for them this year is 20-33.  They are 1-4 and are getting 27.5 points in this game.  San Jose State is a better team, but how much better?  The strength of their team is the defense.  The Spartans are 2-2 this year with the average score being 18-20.  They beat Southern Utah and Hawaii and were blown out by USC and Western Michigan.  I can see SJS being favored by 15 or 16, but 27.5?  That's just way too much.  NMS has not lost a game by more than 27 this year, and SJS is a defensive team that just averages 18 points a game.  I can see this game ending up 24-10 or so.  Good luck to all!

Super Chicken

agree. already on NMST...san jose state has alot going on in the wrong direction offensively.

Good info and analysis.  

Why would you back a bottom 5 team ATS under any scenario?   It seems that there would be a wide variability of outcomes, thus a lack of predictability, and less value than you perceive…No play for me, but good luck…

@LonghornHoosier

 Why not? There are a few bottom teams doing just fine ATS. 

Why are they doing well?   You never know what you are going to get, week to week...I would never back a bottom 5 team ATS...their ceiling is low...Unless there is a valid reason...If I recall the SJSU QB is out injured.  That could be a reason.  How good is the back up.   Has the team thrown in the towel?   

@LonghornHoosier

 Ok. Oklahoma is 4-0 and 1-3 ATS, so is Oregon. 

Some bad teams seem to do well ATS. Some great teams do not. In this situation it looks (on paper) like a good spot for a bad team to cover ATS. NMSU hasn't been beat by more than 20 and San Jose State big win was against the 1-5 Big Sky powerhouse called Southern Utah

SuperVagina, how are you?

moderators - please Ban the creep…

@LonghornHoosier

 Dude. Are you kidding? New Mexico State covers spreads quite well. 

@LonghornHoosier

I see your point but I would argue that you never know what you are going to get with any team.  Not just the bad teams.  That's why they call it gambling.  Did you think Bowling Green would been Minny last week?  

SJSU has not beaten ANY TEAM by more than 17 points the last 2 years except an FCS team 1st game of this season...

That was my thought last week with NMSU v. Hawai'i they did hang in only to lose by 20, getting +17.5....SJST has under-performed compared to the high expectations ...gotta take the points for a small stake

Last year SJSU got all the breaks and calls went their way.. It was their year..Now this year...they have not covered the spread accept vs an FCS team. 

i like new mex st to cover the 27.5  i was born and raised in san jose. went to oak grove high, not far from sj st. theyve never been a team to run over teams, and they lay down with 3 td leads late in games.

@Super_Chicken

 Thanks for posting this! I wouldn’t have dug deep enough into the board to find it. After watching the SJSU v Hawaii game, I would agree that they likely aren’t blowing anybody’s doors off this year. If anybody else watched the amount of dropped passes you’d understand why. Offensively they are struggling this year. I think I remember the announcers saying their top 3 receivers from last season moved on to nfl and the main target atleast that night was one of their backup qbs. I’ll be on nmst to get inside the number for sure.

Last 10 Years NM State ATS

Home ATS 23-26-2

Away 22-37-1

That's 45-63-2 over the last 10 years...

More Recent

Last 3 Years NM State ATS - full - 2017-2019

Home ATS - 6-7-0

Away ATS - 6-11-0

That's 12-18-0 ATS...

That's not good enough for me...Is it good enough for you?  

I have no dog in this matchup.  My point is one of principle…Why would you ever back a historically bad team who has a bad ATS record.   The only exception would be circumstances in a one off matchup…Perhaps this one with SJSU is one…This is a bad program and a pay day patsie schedule filler for Power 5s…The best bet is to stay away…

@LonghornHoosier

 If you are using 10 years of ATS and saying their ATS more or less sucks and why would you bet them, then why bet Texas who is 56-59-2 ATS the last 10 years?

Yes, Texas is looking good so far this year, but the last 10 years, they have not been good overall. Correct? 

Then go and recommend in your Covers Tout scheme to bet multiple units on the Aggies in this matchup...Don't bet bad teams is a common capping anecdote, like being wary of heavy public teams like USC, Notre Dame, et al...Sure, a situational match up like this may hit, however in the long term, backing teams like this won't be profitable, due to the variability of outcomes.  If you want to try to consistently profit from bottom dwellers, be my guest...Is there anyone in the COVERS NCAAF universe who agrees with me?  

The fact that people tend to watch better teams and research more on better teams, means the worst teams get less analysis. A sportsbook spends their time and money on the biggest games because they have the biggest stakes. By focusing on bottom dwellers, there is an inherent edge in that you are spending more time than a lot of people. You may run into an unpopular side of a bet which works out for you as the line moved in your favor. Now, a sportsbook still spends time on any games they take bets on, so it may not be enough of a difference since it's a computer doing most of the work, but it could be enough to give you an edge. Can't really say that bottom dwellers are less consistent than good teams. They could be just as consistently bad as a good team is consistently good.