Posted:
#26
And you are a condescending jerk and a poor tout…You aren’t as good as you think you are, bro…Get over yourself…
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier: Then go and recommend in your Covers Tout scheme to bet multiple units on the Aggies in this matchup...Don't bet bad teams is a common capping anecdote, like being wary of heavy public teams like USC, Notre Dame, et al...Sure, a situational match up like this may hit, however in the long term, backing teams like this won't be profitable, due to the variability of outcomes. If you want to try to consistently profit from bottom dwellers, be my guest...Is there anyone in the COVERS NCAAF universe who agrees with me? Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier: I have no dog in this matchup. My point is one of principle…Why would you ever back a historically bad team who has a bad ATS record. The only exception would be circumstances in a one off matchup…Perhaps this one with SJSU is one…This is a bad program and a pay day patsie schedule filler for Power 5s…The best bet is to stay away… Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier: Last 10 Years NM State ATS Home ATS 23-26-2 Away 22-37-1 That's 45-63-2 over the last 10 years... More Recent Last 3 Years NM State ATS - full - 2017-2019 Home ATS - 6-7-0 Away ATS - 6-11-0 That's 12-18-0 ATS... That's not good enough for me...Is it good enough for you? Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck: @LonghornHoosier Dude. Are you kidding? New Mexico State covers spreads quite well. So you're backing San Jose St then? What is their record as 28 point favorites over the last decade? I'm gonna assume thats a very small sample size without looking into it....Why? If you only bet on "good teams", you're still going to lose 50% of the time. If you're not looking at matchups and going off of stuff that happened in 2011 things will never work out. Its not like Bama covers 75% of the time. Thats not how gambling/handicapping works. There is no model or science that will help. Trends are one aspect of looking at things, but its probably not in the top 20 things you should be looking at....especially ones that span a decade with completely different players and coaches. Vegas knows everything we know, and thats already calculated in the line. Oddsmakers know NMST usually gets whooped....thats why they are 4 td dogs to a team that has only scored 23 points in its last 3 games combined.....So, if you didn't know any trends from the last 10 years....how do THESE teams matchup? Probably one of the most ignorant babbling comments I have ever seen on Covers....and thats saying something.
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier: Then go and recommend in your Covers Tout scheme to bet multiple units on the Aggies in this matchup...Don't bet bad teams is a common capping anecdote, like being wary of heavy public teams like USC, Notre Dame, et al...Sure, a situational match up like this may hit, however in the long term, backing teams like this won't be profitable, due to the variability of outcomes. If you want to try to consistently profit from bottom dwellers, be my guest...Is there anyone in the COVERS NCAAF universe who agrees with me? Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier: I have no dog in this matchup. My point is one of principle…Why would you ever back a historically bad team who has a bad ATS record. The only exception would be circumstances in a one off matchup…Perhaps this one with SJSU is one…This is a bad program and a pay day patsie schedule filler for Power 5s…The best bet is to stay away… Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier: Last 10 Years NM State ATS Home ATS 23-26-2 Away 22-37-1 That's 45-63-2 over the last 10 years... More Recent Last 3 Years NM State ATS - full - 2017-2019 Home ATS - 6-7-0 Away ATS - 6-11-0 That's 12-18-0 ATS... That's not good enough for me...Is it good enough for you? Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck: @LonghornHoosier Dude. Are you kidding? New Mexico State covers spreads quite well. So you're backing San Jose St then? What is their record as 28 point favorites over the last decade? I'm gonna assume thats a very small sample size without looking into it....Why? If you only bet on "good teams", you're still going to lose 50% of the time. If you're not looking at matchups and going off of stuff that happened in 2011 things will never work out. Its not like Bama covers 75% of the time. Thats not how gambling/handicapping works. There is no model or science that will help. Trends are one aspect of looking at things, but its probably not in the top 20 things you should be looking at....especially ones that span a decade with completely different players and coaches. Vegas knows everything we know, and thats already calculated in the line. Oddsmakers know NMST usually gets whooped....thats why they are 4 td dogs to a team that has only scored 23 points in its last 3 games combined.....So, if you didn't know any trends from the last 10 years....how do THESE teams matchup? Probably one of the most ignorant babbling comments I have ever seen on Covers....and thats saying something.
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