Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by DB51daBEARS:
Hey P_F_P What you're not getting (and I don't mean it to be an insult, so don't get your hackles up lol)...but all throughout the week the %s change...you need to track them and compare them to the spread line if it's moving with or against the %s. You can't wait for game day and look at the %s and say "team A is a winner". Second thing, 68% of the spread/line bet tickets could be written on team A, but that's just a snapshot on game day showing who's favored, and that could be because the books have dropping the line to get team A bettors to take the -4 (for example) while team B had 75% of the actual $$$ bet on them two days ago - smart money...and now the books want you to bite on the fave. You have to match up the spread %s bet with the spread line and see if it makes sense. Quote Originally Posted by Pro_Fball_Picks: Quote Originally Posted by marquee_: line movement means nothing. This entire board was on hous-7..that alone is an auto fade. Thanks for the early gift board..when any board heavily favours one side in an isolated game always fade that's free game. It’s a waste of my time to type this because I can tell by your post you are unable to learn, but the 20 threads on the board before the game are nothing in comparison to the hundreds of thousands of bets on a game. I recommend you follow the actual % of bets on a game and you will see what I am talking about. There are a few good apps and websites out there. Hawaii had over 60% of the money line and 60% of the spread bets on this game. No matter how low linesmakers adjusted the lines, the money kept coming in on Hawaii.
Hey P_F_P What you're not getting (and I don't mean it to be an insult, so don't get your hackles up lol)...but all throughout the week the %s change...you need to track them and compare them to the spread line if it's moving with or against the %s. You can't wait for game day and look at the %s and say "team A is a winner". Second thing, 68% of the spread/line bet tickets could be written on team A, but that's just a snapshot on game day showing who's favored, and that could be because the books have dropping the line to get team A bettors to take the -4 (for example) while team B had 75% of the actual $$$ bet on them two days ago - smart money...and now the books want you to bite on the fave. You have to match up the spread %s bet with the spread line and see if it makes sense. Quote Originally Posted by Pro_Fball_Picks: Quote Originally Posted by marquee_: line movement means nothing. This entire board was on hous-7..that alone is an auto fade. Thanks for the early gift board..when any board heavily favours one side in an isolated game always fade that's free game. It’s a waste of my time to type this because I can tell by your post you are unable to learn, but the 20 threads on the board before the game are nothing in comparison to the hundreds of thousands of bets on a game. I recommend you follow the actual % of bets on a game and you will see what I am talking about. There are a few good apps and websites out there. Hawaii had over 60% of the money line and 60% of the spread bets on this game. No matter how low linesmakers adjusted the lines, the money kept coming in on Hawaii.
”What I’m not getting” - You are talking about basic stuff it’s called reverse line movement. Of course I’m looking at that just like anyone should who tracks and makes plays based on line movement like myself. This is the most important factor in my wagers year round.
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