Line movement matters more than your feelings

The end

You are on the wrong side of this one old friend

Be careful, line movement is important. Yet, not always.

I appreciate your opinion, but here’s mine:

Line movement can be the most important factor in betting on sports. The reason is, everyone can cap the same stats, schedule, inactive, etc. That is known to everyone. Available information. Illogical Line movement can tell you secrets the public doesn’t know. Two games that come to mind so far this bowl season are Hawaii and Nevada.

@Pro_Fball_Picks

 You’re right, sorry not trying to discredit or sway your opinion. Yet Line Movement can be tricky. Especially NFL, Broncos vs Bills recently went from -7 to -6 some places -5.5 yes okay not 3 points like this game haha 

All I know is I was on the wrong side with Houston -9.5 haha.

BOL my friend!

haven't updated....but as of 2018 or so :

SINCE 1992......ANYTIME A LINE HAS MOVED MORE THAN 4 POINTS TOWARDS A GIVEN TEAM...THAT TEAM HAS COVERED 64% OF THE TIME

     *note: for totals about 56%...

@bookieassassin

 Is there a website that will show line movement for games in the last few days prior to the game starting?  That's a very interesting point you just made.  

You're both right lol...but Ron makes a good point.  It's not always black & white when the line moves.  

Last week's NFL...line started dropping on Dolphins and books created phony steam on Patriots and lotta folks jumped on "Beli gonna school his former pupil, HC Flores who has a rookie QB."  Not so much.  Then later in the 4pm slate books did the same thing with KC v NO...dropped the line from -3.5 to -2.5, and the ML dropped from -200 to -140 on KC to get the NO bettors to believe they were on the right side.  They mighta been on the right side, but KC got the W and the cover.  Books been doing this more often...used to be you could rely on line movement being legit.

...the actual physical "Line Movement" , OLine vs DLine ....is what "Matters" in Bowls and is telling on who wants to ball....

@bookieassassin

 What about line movement on a single day of 2 points. Not sure if your numbers were from initial line drop 6 days before game or not. Big difference. 

Great thread, need as much info on this as possible. Line movement can be tricky, that 65% ROI is a great measurement. Yet, shows you the cracks or flaws in it. Line movement for this game was nuts. Opened at -7.5 to jump to -13/-14 back to -10 then back to -7. So this was definitely a tough game to cap. 

line movement means nothing.  This entire board was on hous-7..that alone is an auto fade.  Thanks for the early gift board..when any board heavily favours one side in an isolated game always fade that's free game.

@marquee_

 Check again my friend, lots of Hawaii backers.

@RonBergundy

 i checked every post right before the game...i'd say 85% was on houston.

vegasinsider.com shows 58% of the spread/line tickets were written on Hawaii.

It’s a waste of my time to type this because I can tell by your post you are unable to learn, but the 20 threads on the board before the game are nothing in comparison to the hundreds of thousands of bets on a game. I recommend you follow the actual % of bets on a game and you will see what I am talking about. There are a few good apps and websites out there. Hawaii had over 60% of the money line and 60% of the spread bets on this game. No matter how low linesmakers adjusted the lines, the money kept coming in on Hawaii. 

@DB51daBEARS

 that stuff is fake too why would that information be readily available on the internet.  w/e me and others who saw the same will cash out stress free.

this is a houston bloodbath.

@Pro_Fball_Picks

 Out of curiosity which sites do you use to track betting percentages? 

Just wanted to note I didn’t mean all line movement in this post - obviously we can all point to where this doesn’t matter. UCF being a good example - that closed at +5.5 and we know how that went! Also let’s not forget the patriots last weekend! Blood bath!

But there’s certain line movement that should raise red flags and Nevada as well as Hawaii did it for me. 

I personally think the action network app is most accurate. I know a lot of people use the spread.com and Vegasinsider. I think Vegas insider is super shady and don’t trust it! They remove the % right after games to limit tracking.

from opener ......anytime till close I reckon

    * 'nuther words..... if like me (often) you like to fade LATE moves in the regular season.... it's usually not profitable in bowls

The general rule (overall) is to respect early moves - ignore or fade late moves

What?? I'm on Houston and I'd say 40% of posters were on Hawaii before the game. Even 3-4 Hawaii ML posts. 

Hey P_F_P

What you're not getting (and I don't mean it to be an insult, so don't get your hackles up lol)...but all throughout the week the %s change...you need to track them and compare them to the spread line if it's moving with or against the %s. You can't wait for game day and look at the %s and say "team A is a winner".

Second thing, 68% of the spread/line bet tickets could be written on team A, but that's just a snapshot on game day showing who's favored, and that could be because the books have dropping the line to get team A bettors to take the -4 (for example) while team B had 75% of the actual $$$ bet on them two days ago - smart money...and now the books want you to bite on the fave. You have to match up the spread %s bet with the spread line and see if it makes sense.

There's no doubt, bettors can make money tracking the markets rather than evaluating future matchups.  Imo most people dont understand how to analyze most of the data that this strategy requires.  It's also pretty expensive to pay for all of the different tools needed to track lines and line movement. (Don Best is $500 a month) 

I know so many people who are always trying to follow the "sharp money" by looking at market signals, like Ticket count/Money wagered, Line movement, reverse line movement, steam, etc... From what i've seen, most bettors who marry themselves to these techniques are losing bettors.  (The few that have had success were essentially just steam betting, and eventually banned from multiple books.