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links....betting talk....week 1

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Posted: #126
 
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Posted: #127
This was a numbers only argument as to why I am staying away from BC.....Not on NI either but just saw a potential covers blood bath.

I am staying away from Wash. ST in week one because of a Mike Leach trend that indicates he treats early NON-CONF games as exhibition games.

I do not focus in on match-up and numbers only...

I just was not sure why you have signaled me out on more than one occasion directly when I never questioned your capping philosophies...Never disrespected you... In fact I have followed your recent posts because I am intrigued by your style......

I am normally a conflict free person here, well maybe not when it comes to politics......

Anyway I do not hold grudges and I look forward to your plays...Good luck.






 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

  I somehow refrained from responding to that thread.  Damn busy.....  but similar sentiments on that original BC / NIU thread.   

But don't worry, the magazine that this info came from is in Lake Michigan.  There's a thread about that.

Pretty important to see how BC (well, any team) performed against whom...  big difference vs. just raw #s with no context.


No, the magazine in Lake Michigan did not offer hardly any INFO at all......Thats why its in the lake...

 
 
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Posted: #129
Here's me.......trying to get (some) of you guys ....'motivated'
  * esp that...."I'm not here to fuk around....now you MAY be....but I'm NOT"................
   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMVmhI1SUq0

  *   ballsy SOB that recorded that wow.....


 
Forgot about the great Ed Feng.....maybe the best set of numbers currently available.......FCS as well
  
https://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/

https://thepowerrank.com/college-football/championship-subdivision-rankings/


Here's his B12 numbers....

OU      100
TCU      92
OSU      90
TX         89
BAY      89
KSU      88
WV       85
TT!       85
ISU      80
KU       72 

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #130
Can you please except my friend request ???
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Here's me.......trying to get (some) of you guys ....'motivated'
  * esp that...."I'm not here to fuk around....now you MAY be....but I'm NOT"................
   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMVmhI1SUq0

  *   ballsy SOB that recorded that wow.....




Forgot about the great Ed Feng.....maybe the best set of numbers currently available.......FCS as well
  
https://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/

https://thepowerrank.com/college-football/championship-subdivision-rankings/


Here's his B12 numbers....

OU      100
TCU      92
OSU      90
TX         89
BAY      89
KSU      88
WV       85
TT!       85
ISU      80
KU       72 






BA--happy to be in your company for another exciting year of CFB!  Loving how you approach this with some professionalism and without doubt keeping your insights as a must read each week.  Looking forward to it my man!
 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:

This was a numbers only argument as to why I am staying away from BC.....Not on NI either but just saw a potential covers blood bath.

I am staying away from Wash. ST in week one because of a Mike Leach trend that indicates he treats early NON-CONF games as exhibition games.

I do not focus in on match-up and numbers only...

I just was not sure why you have signaled me out on more than one occasion directly when I never questioned your capping philosophies...Never disrespected you... In fact I have followed your recent posts because I am intrigued by your style......

I am normally a conflict free person here, well maybe not when it comes to politics......

Anyway I do not hold grudges and I look forward to your plays...Good luck.








IS IT.......ME singling you out.............OR......you singling yourself out?.....................................

BEHOLD.......... the # of threads started......Mayweather....OJ..... bunch more

IF we had a contest.........................................
  * yes my cruelty knows no bounds

WHO is the 2017 version of Vegas Jason......'ultimate recreational capping GADFLY' ?........who would win?.......little Rickey?.....the insane/ heavily medicated  Walter Tibbs?........
  * I like your chances.....is what I'm sayin'.............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #133
buy $BTC
 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



IS IT.......ME singling you out.............OR......you singling yourself out?.....................................

BEHOLD.......... the # of threads started......Mayweather....OJ..... bunch more

IF we had a contest.........................................
  * yes my cruelty knows no bounds

WHO is the 2017 version of Vegas Jason......'ultimate recreational capping GADFLY' ?........who would win?.......little Rickey?.....the insane/ heavily medicated  Walter Tibbs?........
  * I like your chances.....is what I'm sayin'.............



You need to take your comic show on the road as you will be selling the venues out! I thought I was harsh at times, but you are KING, #1!
Love this side of your personality old man!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Can you please except my friend request ???


To have your friend request accepted you need to make a donation to bookieassassins "Covers Emotionally And Mentally Disturbed Foundation" that is used to support the mental health and well being of the likes of Walter Tibbs, among many others, he has tried to mentor without success here on the forum. His great foundation provides intense mental health therapy and long term treatment.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #136
I think it's Boston College not BYU & Colarado St+8.5 was for their 2nd game against Colorado. There are 5 games on August 26th. Oregon St is a play against Colorado St on August 26th. I'll call that pre week 1.

So Oregon St is the only play he has for August 26th. Rest of the plays are for the real week 1. A lot of books don't have Colorado St line up for their 2nd game. Likely have to wait until after they play Oregon St. 


 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:




You need to take your comic show on the road as you will be selling the venues out! I thought I was harsh at times, but you are KING, #1!
Love this side of your personality old man!

your boy BigDaddy is the undisputed KING......we all just hope to approach his greatness............
  * no death threats?.....I'm a pusssy in comparison


Whaddya expect................

I buy these boys school supplies.....school clothes.....take 'em for a haircut (barber shop only).....even a limo for 1st day of school....
  * all they do is complain / whine.......I turn around?.... they're looking at me cross eyed / drooling....eating the covers off their books wtf ?......sometimes you gotta smack 'em.....or break out the ol'..... CAPTIVE BOLT GUN......for 'special' cases................ 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


your boy BigDaddy is the undisputed KING......we all just hope to approach his greatness............
  * no death threats?.....I'm a pusssy in comparison


Whaddya expect................

I buy these boys school supplies.....school clothes.....take 'em for a haircut (barber shop only).....even a limo for 1st day of school....
  * all they do is complain / whine.......I turn around?.... they're looking at me cross eyed / drooling....eating the covers off their books wtf ?......sometimes you gotta smack 'em.....or break out the ol'..... CAPTIVE BOLT GUN......for 'special' cases................ 


 
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Posted: #139
BA,    Nice that you mentioned getting all panicky off a bad week.  I get panicky and have remorse before the weeks games.  I'm nervous now.  Nervous and scared make it fun. Tension and fear of losing are the pay off.

I agree with what your saying about just blowing a bad week and if there are good plays aplenty the next week then you must for sure play those solid games. How do you win if you don't play??

Anyway,  breaking even or having a small loss in a week is a win. I've done this for 16 years on line and my whole life before that. I seldom lose but if I regressed back to the so called norm I'd be back next year for sure.  It's fun.

Stay Hard,    Doc


 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


your boy BigDaddy is the undisputed KING......we all just hope to approach his greatness............
  * no death threats?.....I'm a pusssy in comparison


Whaddya expect................

I buy these boys school supplies.....school clothes.....take 'em for a haircut (barber shop only).....even a limo for 1st day of school....
  * all they do is complain / whine.......I turn around?.... they're looking at me cross eyed / drooling....eating the covers off their books wtf ?......sometimes you gotta smack 'em.....or break out the ol'..... CAPTIVE BOLT GUN......for 'special' cases................ 


You are my friend the total package, and the best of the best, with your expertise and humor, and the timing of your comments. As stated in my posting yesterday, you actually could have made a career out of comedy. #1

I have not looked at what is being said across the street in a very long time, so I am going to take a look now. I am sure I will get a good laugh, but not as good a laugh as I get coming to bookieassassins comedy gallery.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #141

thanks boys.......................


I'm surprised (seriously)....that even 4-5 have me figured out.....
  * my...... incredibly......dry sense of humor doesn't go over too well in 'real life'........as most folks that I know.......take themselves / life REALLY seriously...............



To those that have not............................ 



AGAIN.......the one / only BA theory >  message is THIS

I think I have a few things figured out.....here they are.....if you do this you will NEVER lose money.........in the long run / very seldom in the short run either

That is......attacking a match-up from every angle possible.....figuring out the number you want.....knowing when and where to get it......etc ....etc

IF......you OMIT any step......you REDUCE your chances at a GUARANTEED long term profit.....................


We've got guys here that omit EVERYTHING.....pretty much
  * decent instincts maybe have won them money in the past maybe.......but will come here and ARGUE FOR THAT STYLE

After awhile......it's like.....WTF is wrong with you man?.........
   * here's where the internet is great......you don't get punched in the face..unless of course it's BigDaddy < he CAN find you...   
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

BA,    Nice that you mentioned getting all panicky off a bad week.  I get panicky and have remorse before the weeks games.  I'm nervous now.  Nervous and scared make it fun. Tension and fear of losing are the pay off.

I agree with what your saying about just blowing a bad week and if there are good plays aplenty the next week then you must for sure play those solid games. How do you win if you don't play??

Anyway,  breaking even or having a small loss in a week is a win. I've done this for 16 years on line and my whole life before that. I seldom lose but if I regressed back to the so called norm I'd be back next year for sure.  It's fun.

Stay Hard,    Doc



I'm glad you're one of those that has me figured out...........

EVER SINCE......I figured out a few years back that we humans are unbelievably WEAK.....in so little actual control.....of our thoughts / actions......especially that I was among the biggest IDIOTS.......................I feel I have a HUGE edge over most folks .....................ha............that don't have this figured out

From how teams perform in certain situations......to how WE 'perform' after a few ugly losses.....OR great wins
  *think about it.......for awhile...........................................

>>  ..our inability to stay GROUNDED......stay the course.....is what REALLY costs us money
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


I'm glad you're one of those that has me figured out...........

EVER SINCE......I figured out a few years back that we humans are unbelievably WEAK.....in so little actual control.....of our thoughts / actions......especially that I was among the biggest IDIOTS.......................I feel I have a HUGE edge over most folks .....................ha............that don't have this figured out

From how teams perform in certain situations......to how WE 'perform' after a few ugly losses.....OR great wins
  *think about it.......for awhile...........................................

>>  ..our inability to stay GROUNDED......stay the course.....is what REALLY costs us money


BA, would you write down your thoughts and put them in a book so I have something to read on the toilet from the time the season ends until Steele comes out?    
 
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Posted: #144
Good luck this year BWS77, you are one of a select few I actually respect and appreciate on this site. Hopefully this year will be your best ever!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #145
been staring at this one for awhile.............

After CLOSELY.....examining the match-up.....
  * can anybody think of a reason that TROY doesn't play the hell outta Boise ?........... 

All boxes are checked.......don't love it...but looks like a solid play to me

1)  Turn your textbooks to page 315
        * go to offense / defense stats last 7 yrs
       * draw a line under 2015.....all the way across (Brown's 1st yr)
       *with 2014 in mind....check out the LINEAR improvement in EVERY single category.....on BOTH sides of the ball
        
2)   Now go to page 231.....do the same thing.....but below 2014 (Harsin's 1st yr)......which direction is this team headed?
   * O is (slightly) worse.....D is clearly worse.....should be better this year.....

Live value?......no way it should be over 8' or so

SPOT?........Boise tough at home?....sure 10 years ago....they've covered SIX.....of last NINETEEN games as a home favorite.....AND have Wazzu on deck....

  * Troy?.....Bama State on deck.....under Brown  has covered 7/9 non-conf games........and 6/7 as road dog......keep in mind LY a (probably) not quite as good Troy team came close to beating Clemson  ...in their 1st road game

Troy D maybe soft(er) early......but Boise loses a 1700 yd rusher + 3/4 top Wr's'.....Boise D improved.....but Troy is gonna be TOUGH to stop


FOCUS?

  *After Alabama St  Troy has at NMSU > Akron >  LSU  >  bye......1st (meaningful) challenge....is probably Oct 11 / S Alabama at home......tough road trip here sure
  $ maybe circle that NMSU game as one to FADE Troy.....Aggies likely 0-2 .....and have gotten killed by Troy ...outscored 104-13 L2....flat spot for Troy kinda....should be a big number
 
* Boise?.....loaded......at Wazzu.....New Mexico....Virginia...bye.....BYU.....SDSU....Wyoming.......
  * off a POOR finish 2016.....need to start strong here


ONE UNIT

Col St  +8'
BYU  -2'
Fla  +4
Rutgers +31'
Troy  +12'

smaller

Oreg St  +3
SMU  -24
UNLV  -37
Georgia  -13'
Irish -9 / LSU -6
Tex St  -14










The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

been staring at this one for awhile.............

After CLOSELY.....examining the match-up.....
  * can anybody think of a reason that TROY doesn't play the hell outta Boise ?........... 

All boxes are checked.......don't love it...but looks like a solid play to me

1)  Turn your textbooks to page 315
        * go to offense / defense stats last 7 yrs
       * draw a line under 2015.....all the way across (Brown's 1st yr)
       *with 2014 in mind....check out the LINEAR improvement in EVERY single category.....on BOTH sides of the ball
        
2)   Now go to page 231.....do the same thing.....but below 2014 (Harsin's 1st yr)......which direction is this team headed?
   * O is (slightly) worse.....D is clearly worse.....should be better this year.....

Live value?......no way it should be over 8' or so

SPOT?........Boise tough at home?....sure 10 years ago....they've covered SIX.....of last NINETEEN games as a home favorite.....AND have Wazzu on deck....

  * Troy?.....Bama State on deck.....under Brown  has covered 7/9 non-conf games........and 6/7 as road dog......keep in mind LY a (probably) not quite as good Troy team came close to beating Clemson  ...in their 1st road game

Troy D maybe soft(er) early......but Boise loses a 1700 yd rusher + 3/4 top Wr's'.....Boise D improved.....but Troy is gonna be TOUGH to stop


FOCUS?

  *After Alabama St  Troy has at NMSU > Akron >  LSU  >  bye......1st (meaningful) challenge....is probably Oct 11 / S Alabama at home......tough road trip here sure
  $ maybe circle that NMSU game as one to FADE Troy.....Aggies likely 0-2 .....and have gotten killed by Troy ...outscored 104-13 L2....flat spot for Troy kinda....should be a big number
 
* Boise?.....loaded......at Wazzu.....New Mexico....Virginia...bye.....BYU.....SDSU....Wyoming.......
  * off a POOR finish 2016.....need to start strong here


ONE UNIT

Col St  +8'
BYU  -2'
Fla  +4
Rutgers +31'
Troy  +12'

smaller

Oreg St  +3
SMU  -24
UNLV  -37
Georgia  -13'
Irish -9 / LSU -6
Tex St  -14


Yep, definitely lean Troy here.  Pecador asked me about this game in late May.  Said slight lean Troy at the time, that my preliminary line was no more than 10, but not done reviewing Boise at the time.  ... came out to -8.3 BTW.  Concerns with Troy LBs & O-line, but Boise State trending down under Harsin and question marks in the back 7 on defense.  And did you see the Troy 1st half / 2nd half #s breakdown (really by quarters)??  If that keeps up, 2nd half of this game could be a shootout.

 
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Posted: #147
like Troy as well. Informative and humorous thread 
 
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Posted: #148
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Yep, definitely lean Troy here.  Pecador asked me about this game in late May.  Said slight lean Troy at the time, that my preliminary line was no more than 10, but not done reviewing Boise at the time.  ... came out to -8.3 BTW.  Concerns with Troy LBs & O-line, but Boise State trending down under Harsin and question marks in the back 7 on defense.  And did you see the Troy 1st half / 2nd half #s breakdown (really by quarters)??  If that keeps up, 2nd half of this game could be a shootout.



BIG question...
  *what's DC Koenning / staff doing at halftime?.....

           S&P       pts           rush

1Q     # 9           #19            3.1/rush
2Q      15            22             1.9
3Q      104          81             5.0
4Q      98            20             3.5

Troy O.....same deal to a lesser degree

1Q      48             14           5.0
2Q      79             72           5.0
3Q      96             54           3.6
4Q      38             61           4.5

Boise O balanced....3Q their worst
  * Boise D - 4Q by far their worst:   #113 scoring  / S&P 67 / 4.7 per rush .....  Unfortunately ha 3Q their best


note:
Troy OL # 1 in sack rate / Boise DL much softer / less disruptive LY......+ QB get's rid of the ball in a hurry
..
  #98 stuff rate / #80 sacks....when needing to make a stop on 3rd/4th and short (<2)?......vs the run >   the nation's WORST..................

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #149
Hey Book ... do you know of any website that has game reviews / breakdowns/ angles / trends ???

Appreciate it !!
 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Hey Book ... do you know of any website that has game reviews / breakdowns/ angles / trends ???

Appreciate it !!


up now.....

https://www.covers.com/sports/ncaaf/matchups
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/scores

I like Don Best for match-up stuff...

https://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/matchups-classic/

lotta stuff here

https://www.statfox.com/cfb/gamematchup.asp
  
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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