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LOL at Boise St being favored over Oregon

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Posted: #1
This season I am only playing dogs on the ML. Unless the line is to large to allow me to do so at my book.

This game jumps out at me.

What jumps out at me:
*Boise St. has 0 difference makers according to what I've seen from their current roster. This looks like a down year for that squad. That just my opinion.

*Oregon has LeGarrett Blunt(sp is really fucked, sorry dude). Here's some tape(1:58 is from last year's Boise St. game).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82cWHFN_YKE


They also have several other players on NFL radars while Boise has virtually Bupkus save for one 5 foot 7 inch corner who I don't think is highly touted for his ability to stop 235lb runaway freight train running backs

gl

 
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Posted: #2
you must not like trends. i cant recall the last time boise lost on the blue turf in the regular season. i think boston college got em in the 05 bowl game and thats it  for a very long time.

avery and harper are out of control. and moore is accurate and efficient. i hate this team being from hawaii but they just show up year in and year out.
 
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Posted: #3
Well I wouldn't have expected the oddsmakers to make Oregon favorite on the road... but that line was at +6 a couple of weeks ago.
 
I think the defensive starter losses for Boise are the bigger story, then any losses Oregon had on the OL...Blount and Masoli can run as we saw at the end of last season.
 
I like the Ducks with the points big and to a smaller scale on the ML
 
 
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Posted: #4
If you are only going to play the dogs and the ML, you are not going to have a lot of plays, are you?  Very dangerous as the favorites win over 70% of the time straight up.  You are going to need a lot of 2 and 3 to 1 shots.
 
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Posted: #5
oRegon + the points for me, one of the biggest plays for me in awhile. Boise has been great at home for a while but that was also with better teams too...
 
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Posted: #6
BigDaddyHQ,
You're right about the lack of plays. I prefer it that way. I'm not sure if favorite win 70% of the time or not. I was under the impression that the team that wins covers the spread 80% of the time(of all lines within double digits).

If there are 50 games a week that means 40 teams will cover the spread and win. Roughly half of those teams should be dogs. That means there should be a pool of about 20 possibilities for me to play each week.(20/50 is about 60%). If I concentrate on tv games that will bring that number down significantly.

Its nice to have  a strategy which limits my exposure in two ways(leverage and scarcity).
 
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Posted: #7
I like your style aszzzbrokerman...
 
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Posted: #8
oregon should win this game easy!   love the ml with oregon cant go wrong with the points either
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by aszzzbrokerman:

BigDaddyHQ,
You're right about the lack of plays. I prefer it that way. I'm not sure if favorite win 70% of the time or not. I was under the impression that the team that wins covers the spread 80% of the time(of all lines within double digits).

If there are 50 games a week that means 40 teams will cover the spread and win. Roughly half of those teams should be dogs. That means there should be a pool of about 20 possibilities for me to play each week.(20/50 is about 60%). If I concentrate on tv games that will bring that number down significantly.

Its nice to have  a strategy which limits my exposure in two ways(leverage and scarcity).

Good work, love the numbers!!! 

 
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Posted: #10
When I first looked at this game I liked Boise St but upon further review I like the Ducks.Looking at Boise St's wins last year I didnt see enough to impress me as they really only beat crap teams for the most part and question how they will be able to handle Oregon's running game.
 
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Posted: #11
Gamble4heis,
Thanks

*I've been looking at this game and I can't figure out why/how the line is 6 points. I know that Boise has been money in the past. But wasn't that one recruiting cycle?
 
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Posted: #12
I will be on Boise St. for certain.  I don't know why everyone has such an infatuation with Oregon.  Is it because of the last bowl game in which their offense was able to move the ball at will against Oklahoma St?  Oregon is going through MAJOR changes and playing Boise St. on the blue field.  Boise beat Oregon last year IN OREGON...now I am to believe Oregon is going to come into Boise and nock them off?

Boise St. has legit BCS aspirations this year and a win against Oregon the first game of the season will help immensely.  Meanwhile Oregon is learning under a new head coach and fields a team littered with holes.

I will take one of the best teams in the nation ats when they play at home over a rebuilding Oregon team.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by aszzzbrokerman:

This season I am only playing dogs on the ML. Unless the line is to large to allow me to do so at my book.

This game jumps out at me.

What jumps out at me:
*Boise St. has 0 difference makers according to what I've seen from their current roster. This looks like a down year for that squad. That just my opinion.

*Oregon has LeGarrett Blunt(sp is really fucked, sorry dude). Here's some tape(1:58 is from last year's Boise St. game).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82cWHFN_YKE


They also have several other players on NFL radars while Boise has virtually Bupkus save for one 5 foot 7 inch corner who I don't think is highly touted for his ability to stop 235lb runaway freight train running backs

gl




WOW and WOW
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by aszzzbrokerman:

This season I am only playing dogs on the ML. Unless the line is to large to allow me to do so at my book.

This game jumps out at me.

What jumps out at me:
*Boise St. has 0 difference makers according to what I've seen from their current roster. This looks like a down year for that squad. That just my opinion.

*Oregon has LeGarrett Blunt(sp is really fucked, sorry dude). Here's some tape(1:58 is from last year's Boise St. game).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82cWHFN_YKE


They also have several other players on NFL radars while Boise has virtually Bupkus save for one 5 foot 7 inch corner who I don't think is highly touted for his ability to stop 235lb runaway freight train running backs

gl




Funny...I think this might be their best chance to shock the world and play a BCS game in the Rose Bowl (not for the NC though).
 
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Posted: #15
either way I am so fucking pumped for this season to start and love being back in these forums talking with you guys about these games.  Best of luck to everyone of course. 
 
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Posted: #16
LOL zero difference makers ?
 
Moore is one of the best QB's in the country.
Secondary has several.
Hout will definitely be.
 
Boise by 14+
 
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Posted: #17
i agree with you 100% jim.  boise st at home on the smurf turf is virtually impossible to beat.  boise has returning qb kellen moore, and rb jeremy avery.   pac 10 is overated
 
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Posted: #18
Yea Boise was nearlly impossible to beat at home last year--------Lets see they beat Idaho State,Bowling Green,Louisiana Tech,Hawaii,Utah State and Fresno State at home last year-----------LOL!
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Clambert0253:

Yea Boise was nearlly impossible to beat at home last year--------Lets see they beat Idaho State,Bowling Green,Louisiana Tech,Hawaii,Utah State and Fresno State at home last year-----------LOL!

lmaooooooooooooo wow someone actually knows whats up, they beat cupcakes on blue turf now all the sudden they cant be beat, another thing is that, this is a revenge game for oregon all them late and cheap shots they did on oregon last year will be heavily watched this game due to the qb being hurt and the late hits on recievers, i can see boise catching alot of penalties and oregon rolling boise this year by atleast 14 i dont even think it will be as close as most think............. again    oregon ml !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

bol

 
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Posted: #20
Beware faithful gamblers...this game has public fade written all over it. With all of the money coming on a huge ML dog and the points...national tv game. This will also be a game in which people will be chasing their losses from earlier in the evening. Something tells me Boise not only covers, but ROLLS. Although I'll admit I capped this game to be a pick and I like Oregon's talent more. Regardless I might just have to, that's right I'll be the first one to drop the phrase this year, FADE THE PUBLIC AND take the Broncos.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRussian:

Beware faithful gamblers...this game has public fade written all over it. With all of the money coming on a huge ML dog and the points...national tv game. This will also be a game in which people will be chasing their losses from earlier in the evening. Something tells me Boise not only covers, but ROLLS. Although I'll admit I capped this game to be a pick and I like Oregon's talent more. Regardless I might just have to, that's right I'll be the first one to drop the phrase this year, FADE THE PUBLIC AND take the Broncos.

actually if you want to fade the public you would take oregon, people are reading to much in this game and leaning on trends of "blue turf" if you capped this as a pick em you should def take moneyline and catch the value here because rest of season oregon will probably be favored in most games....

bol to you in whatever you decide

 
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Posted: #22
i have OU on the ML for 1/2 and ATS for 1/2... should be an easy win...
 
Blount and Massoli will be too much for that defense... the game last year was incredibly misleading, and OU wants this one bad... Boise can beat up on cupcakes on their turf all day long, but it is rare that a team like Oregon rolls into town...
 
blue turf isn't gonna help them stop the Ducks from dropping 40+ on them...
 
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Posted: #23
boise will get on the blue! and get left feeling blue!
 
oregon will roll
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by vegas_crunch:

actually if you want to fade the public you would take oregon, people are reading to much in this game and leaning on trends of "blue turf" if you capped this as a pick em you should def take moneyline and catch the value here because rest of season oregon will probably be favored in most games....

bol to you in whatever you decide





You are delusional if you think the majority of bettors are on Boise St.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Jared Zebransky and Ian Johnson are not coming through that tunnel.

To paraphrase Pitino
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