Rationale
@Texas -9.5 over Louisiana - Lafayette
Predict Score
Texas 35 Louisiana - Lafayette 17
Yes, I am a homer...But, I think Texas -9.5 is a solid play...Look at Louisiana - Lafayette ("LaLa") schedule the last two seasons...Look at the talent delta. LaLa will not sneak up on Texas. Its surprising win over Iowa State was the worst thing that could have happened to LaLa with regard to potentially pulling an upset in Austin on September 4, 2021. There will be no look ahead to Arkansas on September 11, 2021. Sark saw how the losses to Maryland in game 1 damaged Tom Herman's credibility with the boosters. Napier is a legit coach. He will have his team prepared. And it may be relatively close for a half. But, Texas, even with a new HC, new systems, new coordinators, playing at home against an upstart and possibly ranked LaLa team, they will be very focussed. And Texas will do best where it has advantages, and that in my opinion, is running the football, thus an advantage in the trenches. By, the fourth quarter, on Labor Day Weekend, Texas depth will reign superior. I predict a 17+ point win for Texas. Again, I am an alumnus and a homer. So take it for what its worth. But, I am a realist, and Texas has underperformed by our standards for 10+ years. We have team speed that LaLa will not be able to match, even if they play out of their minds. Had we played these guys after TCU or OU or Iowa State, I could see a let down, and potential upset. But in game 1, with the changes, I see a very focussed Texas team who will make a statement. In past years when we played the Louisiana small schools, the spread would have been Texas -24+. This season, the spread is justifiably tighter, though I think the betting market is underrating Texas and overrating LaLa. I will be on Texas -9.5 on September 4, 2021...
Hope I didn't talk you outta that NC State opener .. you like it go for it, think NC State looks a little better than I thought at first .. does look like the good WR Emezie is limited in practice w an injury, maybe keep an eye on that .. maybe see if some of the decent profile USF xfers are getting in the lineup ..
GL w the plays buddy
@Bridge1
I am still evaluating NC State and UCLA in week 1 and 0, respectively. I may add to the strings later. You are correct on the talent at USF. The difference with NC State is not that great on recruiting. NC State will most definitely win this game, but do they have the horses to cover? USF played a good UCF team close last season in a rivalry game. Again, need to do more research. Go think I am on crack for the homer Texas pick? You have done outstanding preseason work on this forum. GL in week 1!
I think ULL might be a pretty deep squad, its 3rd straight yr of really top level ret production and Cajuns w one of the biggest bumps in recruiting since '19 ... we've seen almost none of those players yet but looks like a bunch are #2's and 3's in Phil's depth chart .. also recall IA.State brought back a huge load of their guys LY, turned out to be a pretty awesome squad, huge surprise in the opener .. obvi ULL nowhere near UT's recruiting level but whatev happens this game keep them on the radar, think secret weapon, the depth is really deeeep w these guys and I like them for a huge bounce back and legit fav to win the conference even w Appy and Coastal both lookin realllly strong again ..
Did grab some Bijon Robinson Heisman at 30-1 .. Let's Goooo!
@LonghornHoosier
I've been slammed 2 years in a row in the NHL forum, primarily in the playoffs, for being a "homer." Yea, I live in Tampa Bay, big Lightning fan and more importantly, I KNOW them! Not sure if you're into hockey at all, but it's the same in all sports, you know your team. And my write-ups and predictions were spot on about the Lightning, Stanley Cup Champs 2 years in a row, it wasn't an accident. I'm also a bettor and was betting long before the Lightning were even a franchise, my money comes first! Just did a write-up in baseball taking the Red Sox over the Rays today, and I'm a big Rays fan, live only a couple miles from the "Trop." I'm going to listen to you talk about Texas more than sum Joe Blow who lives in Massachusetts and is a UMASS guy. So these jagoffs who look at you as a "homer," rather than an excellent source of information, know nothing about betting. GL this season!
I really like LaLa other than the Texas game, starting in week 3 at home against Ohio as a 13 point favorite (Phil Steel Power Rankings). They should do well ATS in the SBC. Napier should get a P5 job after this season. Those who are down on Texas think they will play like they did in the latter Mack Brown, Strong and Herman eras. I think its a new ball game. If Texas can compete at a high level with our current talent, our recruiting rankings will increase. I know you guys think I am delusional. That's ok. We will see how it plays out...
Interesting
on one hand, I will take
I love.taking Sun Belt teams vs P5 teams
But I think the world has caught on...spread.seems low
I.wouldn't sleep on SB talent.... Those South-east states send tons of 3-star and below recruits to the NFL
One.dirty.secret.of recruiting ratings is I think academics play a bigger role than I think...jsed.to So many more non-qualifiers
Actually, I tend to agree with that view, but will be more or less optimistic after camp ends.
If I am just looking at the line...I am all over ULL +9.5.....Linemakers know what they are doing....Sark coming off his Coordinator of the Year/Bama..Lots of hype with Texas..SEC....yet the line is only -9.5.......we will see..very experienced ULL team that smashed #10 Iowa State on the road last season...I think they were 14 point dogs?
Good luck with that…;)
I watched the UT spring game, they didn't have everything clickin but could tell they are gunna be a dangerous offense when the kinks get worked out .. only so much we can glean from a spring scrimmage but yeah they won't be dickin around on offense ..
Really hope they don't open up that can of offensive whoop ass vs ULL .. for one I'm on ULL +12, but for two looking ahead if we get a reasonable total on UT / Arkansas think its BOMBS AWAY BIG on the over, expecting a real shoot out ..
Also .. LH moving the market .. seein Okla -27 now .. thought that would be around 25ish .. c'mon -28 woop!!!!
@LonghornHoosier
I think you are on the right side LH. As a Tide fan, I know Sark will have his "inexperienced" qb prepared, but I expect a heavy dose of running it down ULL throat. I like ULL, and think they'll have a really good season, but Coach Sark has got to set the tone for his tenure beginning in Game 1. Not only does he know how quickly they got rid of Hermann "the godsend hire), but he has to be able to recruit on the "we are going to the SEC" line. He is gong to face a lot of in conference tests from people who see them as destroying yet another conference - so I am not sure how they'll do in conference, but they HAVE to win this game and it needs to be impressive. That said, I would not mind at all if the line goes down a bit. With all the running I anticipate, I would feel more comfy at 7 :) Of course, once they pound the rock long enough, things will open up down the field and the difference in athlete between the two schools will become apparent.
Good luck,
Manowarfan1
Established in 1995,
over @Virginia Tech 
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