LONGHORNHOOSIER, COLLEGE FOOTBALL, WEEK 1, 2019

Gents - I am back from my 10 day trip to Paris with my bride of 10 years!     We hit a lot of the key spots, including two key cabaret shows Moulin Rouge and Lido Paris Mervelis.   Seeing those youngopless ladies raised my energy level.   I love Paris, its my fave city on earth.     You all should try to make it there one day before you die!  

On to week 1...predicted scores and rationale...

South Carolina 38 North Carolina 17

Coach Boom versus his former boss at Texas.   Muschump was HC in waiting at Texas, but, MB did not want to give it up, so Boom left for Florida.   Both seem to get a long, but you know Will wants to beat his old boss.   SC in 4th year of Muschamp regime.   Jake Bentley, legit NFL prospect, who had an off year last year.   SC had injuries on DL down the stretch.   SC gets Clemson Tr Feister to supplement its running game, along with some game breaking WR. SC D should be better.  Also, pop quiz, where is the Belk Bowl played?  That's right Charlotte, and what happened the last time SC played in Charlotte.   They got schooled by upstart UVA 28 to 0...All these factors plus NC has a new coach, new coordinators, new systems, and a true freshman qb under center tells me that this is going to be a beat down.  Its my top pick of the week.     Vegas must agree because as of me writing this the line if up to -11.   I don't know if I would be as enthusiastic about SC -11 as I am about my SC-7.5, but I think, based on my predicted score that SC still has a chance to cover even that inflated number.   Since SC has the toughest schedule in the nation, I think this is a must win for SC, and I think they will TCB and facilitate the cover of the 7.5 chalk.

Rutgers 42 Massachusettes 13

I defer to one my covers mentors BookieAssassin on the rationale for this pick.  I think he nailed it.  Plus, it was announced that Texas Tech Transfer McLane Carter will start at QB.  Sure, Rutgers is terrible in the context of Power 5 and the Big 10, but, if Carter sticks, I think Rutgers could surprise a few teams in the Big 10.  This is a must win for Ash, and I think he will have his troops ready to go against a bad UMASS team... 

Georgia 45 Vanderbilt 14

A few months ago, there was a piece on Vandy, talking about their Big 3, (RB, TE, and WR) combo that was going to shock the world and create a wake up call for UGA (since the perception is that UGA is already thinking about N Dame).    Sorry Vandy, with their Defense optional team, talking smack against a jaugernaut that is Georgia, is not a good idea.   UGA is off 2 losses, including against my Longhorns where they were a 14 pt fave, and lost by 7 since they thought they deserved to be in the playoff over N Dame.     UGA lost all 4 of their WR's to the NFL...But, these new buys were all 4 and 5 star recruits and have Fromm throwing to them.   Plus, you got the best OL in college football, with 5 future early round draft picks, and a Heisman contender in Swift toting the rock.   That plus an aggressive K Smart D.   I honestly don't think Vandy will be in the game even in the first quarter.  Based on the reasons stated, I believe UGA will make a statement that they are contenders for the CFP, and there won't be any ambiguity...

Syracuse 48 Liberty 17

I just don't get this line.  It was stuck on 17 now up to 18...Sure, Cuse lost some talent, but DeVito is going to be a very good college QB.  I did a 5 year talent analysis of Cuse v. Liberty, and its not close.     Many pundits are talking about Freeze and his potential splash.  Sure, he's a good coach, but in week 1 against Dino Babers with Freeze most 2 and sub 2 star players, I don't think so.  That plus Freeze has had some health problems during fall camp (see Bobo of Col State in 2018).    Sure, I think Freeze will mold these kinds into a competitive team, but not in week 1.   This is a top 25 team v. a bottom 25 team.   In my opinion the line should be at least 24.

Alabama 45 Duke 3

Yes, heard about the loss of the star LB and the 4 degenerates who will sit out the first half.   I have also, heard Saban's "Man Love" for Cutcliff Yada, Yada Yada...Bama is coming off a 28 point beat down to Clemson...I think Bama will want to make a statement in week 1 2019, and that includes against Cutcliff led Duke.    I have heard pundits say that Saban does not run it up against smaller programs.   Sure, that's fair.   But against Power 5 teams OOF 2014 - 2018 Bama is 4-1 ATS with the only exception of West Virginia in 2014.   So sure, against the NM States for LaLa, he scores 50 and calls off the dogs, and lets his Bama walk ons give up a BDD.   I don't think the Bama Nation expects Saban to let up on a P5 team.   Sure, Cutcliff is a good coach, and Duke has 8 returning starters on D, but this is Bama.   Degenerate N Harris backup is a 5 star player.  Bama is not like 95% of the FBS P5 world.    They don't need to be too concerned about losing Super Stars on a Team of Super Stars...My score prediction above has Bama scoring only 45, though I think they could score over 60...I think Saban at some point will call off the dogs, but will keep his D aggressive, against a woeful Duke offense.  Even with all of Bama's injuries and suspensions, I still believe that they will cover...

I will appreciate any feedback on my picks, predicted scores, and/or rationale...I wish everyone a successful week 1...

Welcome back LH, and congrats.  (Although I love Europe, especially the Alp are, don't share your love for Paris or France.  Don't see a return their for me.)  What I do share though is your love for UGA over Vandy.  I had it pegged almost exactly the same, 45-13, and it is my biggest play on Saturday.  I don't see Smart running it up on Mason, he likes him, but recently said he had been too conservative on scoring and pulling starters early and needed to score more points in today's game.  With that OL and stable of backs, I think he could wear Vandy down and put up in the 30s without throwing a pass.  While Vandy's RB, TE, and WR are indeed talented, a new QB facing that defense isn't going to drive the field and put up many points.  Unless UGA gets sloppy with turnovers, I think the Dores' ceiling is limited.   I am in at -21, and considering adding to it.

I am not as excited about SC, although they look to be the better team.  Cocks are improved this year, especially on the defensive front, and should win, I just don't trust them enough to cover a 2 score spread.  Some have mentioned their ability to run against the UNC front, and they will have some success, but I just don't see a bell cow RB in their camp.  Lasy quality RB I remember was Lattimore, and that's been a while.  Also think Bentley is inconsistent as a passer.  His freshman year he came in about mid-season and looked like he had great potential, but hasn't done much since.  I honestly doubt he makes it through the season as a starter, they have a true freshman that might work his way into the starting role once he gets familiar enough with the offense (came in early January and looked pretty sharp in their spring game.)  Edwards is a really good receiver if Bentley is on.  SC may have a better team than last year but this crazy schedule will make it hard to get to bowl eligible.  They probably will but they don't have a lot of depth and this schedule will take its toll.  Not saying they won't cover, just feel I would go light on this one, feel there are better plays.  GL to all.

See you at the pay window, as we are about to wear a path to it! 

[Quote: Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier]Its that time of year... College Football Season!   The Best Time of Year!   I believe that I finished with about a 58% ATS win % in 2018, though I will welcome my detractors who have a lot of time on their hands to validate that % or not...;) Let's get it in 2019...Each week, I will post picks with lines I booked at Heritage at the time of the bet...I will follow with predicted scores...Finally, I will provide a brief narrative rationale for the picks... Week 1 - Picks - Listed in order of confidence - highest at the top South Carolina -7.5 over North Carolina - at Charlotte, North Carolina @Rutgers -15.5 over Massachusetts Georgia -21 over @Vanderbilt Syracuse -17.5 over @Liberty Alabama -34.5 over Duke - at Atlanta, Georgia Again, predicted scores and rationale to follow...Heading to Paris with my wife on Tuesday, August 20 2019 for 10 days to celebrate my 10th wedding anniversary...In addition, plan to take day trips to Versailles, Normandy Coast, and perhaps Burgundy wine region...Please post any constructive comments on my picks below, even if critical...These bets are set, but it will help me with my process for week 2 and beyond...Hook em Horns!    Good Luck this season![/Quote

one down, four to go! 

BOL LH

Welcome back, congrats on the anniversary and lets have a profitable college football season.

I am on UGA with you, but am at 22.5 (yikes). I feel safe as it is a conferencece game and I think UGA wants people to keep them near the top of polls when that sort,of thing becomes important later. So much easier to start out at the top than claw your way up. Beat down coming for Vandy.

I went with the over on Bama. I am superstitious betting on my team, and with all the injuries I think if the Tide gets up early, rhe rotations start early. I think Saban may let the second and third stringers actually go for it a bit, so they are ready to go when called on, but I can see the newer defensive players giving up some late points. The over feels a bit safer and hopefully doesn't jinx my boys :)

Not reading Syracuse v Liberty. To me that could go any of a couple ways so I will see how they each start the season.

What are your feelings on UVA at Pitt? I hopped on Virginia at -2.5. They suck on the road, but it isn't like Pitt has a great advantage playing at Steelers home. Hoping I didn't throw away a couple of units because I FEEL like the Wahoos NEED to win this game to have the season they want (hell, they all need to win their games to have the season they want).

Hail,

Manowarfan1

Nice card LHH...but what the hell were you thinking having the Anny during CFB season???!!

Have a great time in Pareey buddy.