I was thinkn of playn that SC-NC game in my recent parlay. But the more I look at, just did not want to pull the trigger.... Muscrap, I mean Muschamp, may lay an egg in the opener...... I usually go with the SEC in this spot....But I held off...
-
I think the BC NIU game will be close....
-
GL
Devinne
0
I was thinkn of playn that SC-NC game in my recent parlay. But the more I look at, just did not want to pull the trigger.... Muscrap, I mean Muschamp, may lay an egg in the opener...... I usually go with the SEC in this spot....But I held off...
As a Tennessee fan, I'm very worried about GT. We just lost our best LB and one of our most consistent receivers, not to mention our QB and RB are new starters.
0
As a Tennessee fan, I'm very worried about GT. We just lost our best LB and one of our most consistent receivers, not to mention our QB and RB are new starters.
As a Tennessee fan, I'm very worried about GT. We just lost our best LB and one of our most consistent receivers, not to mention our QB and RB are new starters.
I appreciate the feedback. But, you also lost Debord, your OC, is was incompetent and an achilles heal to your whole team. You have 14 returning starters, a solid OL...and a good secondary. Plus, you have 8 of your top 9 tacklers returning on D. I consider your DC Bob Shoop to be a Top 10 DC in college football. GT is also replacing a 3 year starter. And the Vols have had all spring, summer, and fall game, to prepare to stop GT's regimental O. Finally, Tenn has superior athletes. Sure, they came out like entitled jackas&es against App State last season. I think they will be focussed this year from the getgo, and come out and win by 10+ on Monday...Thanks again!
LonghornHoosier
0
Quote Originally Posted by lilcj43:
As a Tennessee fan, I'm very worried about GT. We just lost our best LB and one of our most consistent receivers, not to mention our QB and RB are new starters.
I appreciate the feedback. But, you also lost Debord, your OC, is was incompetent and an achilles heal to your whole team. You have 14 returning starters, a solid OL...and a good secondary. Plus, you have 8 of your top 9 tacklers returning on D. I consider your DC Bob Shoop to be a Top 10 DC in college football. GT is also replacing a 3 year starter. And the Vols have had all spring, summer, and fall game, to prepare to stop GT's regimental O. Finally, Tenn has superior athletes. Sure, they came out like entitled jackas&es against App State last season. I think they will be focussed this year from the getgo, and come out and win by 10+ on Monday...Thanks again!
As a Tennessee fan, I'm very worried about GT. We just lost our best LB and one of our most consistent receivers, not to mention our QB and RB are new starters.
I appreciate the feedback. But, you also lost Debord, your OC, is was incompetent and an achilles heal to your whole team. You have 14 returning starters, a solid OL...and a good secondary. Plus, you have 8 of your top 9 tacklers returning on D. I consider your DC Bob Shoop to be a Top 10 DC in college football. GT is also replacing a 3 year starter. And the Vols have had all spring, summer, and fall game, to prepare to stop GT's regimental O. Finally, Tenn has superior athletes. Sure, they came out like entitled jackas&es against App State last season. I think they will be focussed this year from the getgo, and come out and win by 10+ on Monday...Thanks again!
LonghornHoosier
0
Quote Originally Posted by lilcj43:
As a Tennessee fan, I'm very worried about GT. We just lost our best LB and one of our most consistent receivers, not to mention our QB and RB are new starters.
I appreciate the feedback. But, you also lost Debord, your OC, is was incompetent and an achilles heal to your whole team. You have 14 returning starters, a solid OL...and a good secondary. Plus, you have 8 of your top 9 tacklers returning on D. I consider your DC Bob Shoop to be a Top 10 DC in college football. GT is also replacing a 3 year starter. And the Vols have had all spring, summer, and fall game, to prepare to stop GT's regimental O. Finally, Tenn has superior athletes. Sure, they came out like entitled jackas&es against App State last season. I think they will be focussed this year from the getgo, and come out and win by 10+ on Monday...Thanks again!
Great to be back on Covers after a 2 year absence.
NCS -4.5 vs So Carolina
One thing really stands out to me about this game -the early line opener on May 26 was NCS -8. Market has driven this line down to -4.5 in most places. Market appears to really like So Carolina.
So does this mean the "market" is right? Most of the time it is. But there are certain situations when the market is asking for a contrarian play.
Checking various consensus sites around the internet finds an overwhelming bias towards So Carolina with an average of consensus of 67%. A high consensus on the Dog ( ie SC) does not typically suggest sharp money. In fact, this sets up a situation I like to call the "Unloved Favorite" when the majority of players like the dog by a significant majority ( > 60%).
I also run simulations using last years end of the season data. Obviously, this is not ideal since last year's data does not reflect off season changes. But it does serve as a useful starting point. Simulations are showing NC State to cover about 70% of the time after upgrading my data to reflect the anticipated improvement in SC offense.
All the above is pointing to me to NC State with about a 60 to 70 pct shot to win and cover this game.
Simulations suggest a median score of NC State 35, SC 25. ( Half the games over 10 pt difference, half the games under a 10 pt differance)
0
Hi LH
Great to be back on Covers after a 2 year absence.
NCS -4.5 vs So Carolina
One thing really stands out to me about this game -the early line opener on May 26 was NCS -8. Market has driven this line down to -4.5 in most places. Market appears to really like So Carolina.
So does this mean the "market" is right? Most of the time it is. But there are certain situations when the market is asking for a contrarian play.
Checking various consensus sites around the internet finds an overwhelming bias towards So Carolina with an average of consensus of 67%. A high consensus on the Dog ( ie SC) does not typically suggest sharp money. In fact, this sets up a situation I like to call the "Unloved Favorite" when the majority of players like the dog by a significant majority ( > 60%).
I also run simulations using last years end of the season data. Obviously, this is not ideal since last year's data does not reflect off season changes. But it does serve as a useful starting point. Simulations are showing NC State to cover about 70% of the time after upgrading my data to reflect the anticipated improvement in SC offense.
All the above is pointing to me to NC State with about a 60 to 70 pct shot to win and cover this game.
Simulations suggest a median score of NC State 35, SC 25. ( Half the games over 10 pt difference, half the games under a 10 pt differance)
I have commented on this game over the last few months. I believe the pokes have obvious key advantages at the QB, WR, and RB skill positions. I also think the O-Line is going to perform well. I think the Ok St D will be better than many expect. Tulsa has a Bridles Disciple O guru as HC, and they will have an innovative game plan for this 1st game. I think the Tulsa run D is suspect, and I believe Ok St will exploit this with Justice. I have seen interviews with Ok St eccentric mullet headed coach Mike Gundy. He seems quite confident in his team this season, more than usual or would be expected. These two campuses are less than 50 miles apart. Thus, a bit of rivalry though I think Ok St has won 12 of the last 14. I think Ok St will start fast, and with no look ahead, will not pull off the gas pedal until they get to 40+. They know that this is a great opportunity to put an image in the minds of the playoff selection committee and sports writers that they are a legit playoff contender. And Gundy must know that his team must play better on D to get any serious consideration to be in the Top 4. Ohio St, which only returned 6 starters last season beat Tulsa by 45+ and that Tulsa team included 3-year starter Evans. Tulsa will play hard, and will make a few nifty plays, but I do not believe that they can keep up with the Ok St offensive juggernaut in a shootout with an inexperienced QB, and WR's. If Tulsa tries to speed the game up with a running game, Ok St should be able to stack the box (you would hope), and force them to pass. Even if Tulsa can somewhat effectively run the ball, I don't think they have the D to keep up with the weapons of Ok St. LonghornHoosier
LonghornHoosier
0
Oklahoma State v. Tulsa, Stillwater, Oklahoma
I have commented on this game over the last few months. I believe the pokes have obvious key advantages at the QB, WR, and RB skill positions. I also think the O-Line is going to perform well. I think the Ok St D will be better than many expect. Tulsa has a Bridles Disciple O guru as HC, and they will have an innovative game plan for this 1st game. I think the Tulsa run D is suspect, and I believe Ok St will exploit this with Justice. I have seen interviews with Ok St eccentric mullet headed coach Mike Gundy. He seems quite confident in his team this season, more than usual or would be expected. These two campuses are less than 50 miles apart. Thus, a bit of rivalry though I think Ok St has won 12 of the last 14. I think Ok St will start fast, and with no look ahead, will not pull off the gas pedal until they get to 40+. They know that this is a great opportunity to put an image in the minds of the playoff selection committee and sports writers that they are a legit playoff contender. And Gundy must know that his team must play better on D to get any serious consideration to be in the Top 4. Ohio St, which only returned 6 starters last season beat Tulsa by 45+ and that Tulsa team included 3-year starter Evans. Tulsa will play hard, and will make a few nifty plays, but I do not believe that they can keep up with the Ok St offensive juggernaut in a shootout with an inexperienced QB, and WR's. If Tulsa tries to speed the game up with a running game, Ok St should be able to stack the box (you would hope), and force them to pass. Even if Tulsa can somewhat effectively run the ball, I don't think they have the D to keep up with the weapons of Ok St. LonghornHoosier
We're heads up on a couple of those my brother and you got the better line on S.Car.... I shuda waited!!
Really looked close at V-Tech I'm on the under 53 may even run it again 1st half under 25.5..... I'd be very surprised if Grier shows up and looks like all he's been cracked up to be....Woulda made it covers offish for VT at 3 or less for due to the new look O but I think you'll be cashin that one fo-sho.
I defer to you on UT, other UT and BC. Best of luck and let's knock em dead this year!!!
0
We're heads up on a couple of those my brother and you got the better line on S.Car.... I shuda waited!!
Really looked close at V-Tech I'm on the under 53 may even run it again 1st half under 25.5..... I'd be very surprised if Grier shows up and looks like all he's been cracked up to be....Woulda made it covers offish for VT at 3 or less for due to the new look O but I think you'll be cashin that one fo-sho.
I defer to you on UT, other UT and BC. Best of luck and let's knock em dead this year!!!
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Boston College -3 over @Northern Illinois
Hot Forum Topics
