LSU at Bama write-up!!!

Question

I think this is a good line.... I am a Bama homer and I am letting you know this ahead of time and I am not giving my opinion to change your mind on this game...

For both teams it is a one game season right now.. This game pretty much decides who goes to the SEC championship game...Win or go home....Both teams will bring their A game here, but who's A game is going to be better??

First let's look at UA...They have went though this season beating everyone by DD's other than Tennessee last week....Alabama has played the most brutal SEC schedule since 95 and have went through it unscaved... They have played 5 straight SEC games and have went unbeaten winning by double digits in all but 1, and that has not been done since 95...Any SEC fan will tell you that is an accomplishment in it itself... Any SEC team can beat you on any Saturday no matter how bad some people may thing they are...Every SEC team has speed and every SEC team has talent at all positions...Now going through the schedule UA has went though they was primed for a letdown at UT being their 8th game without a break and 5th straight SEC game...Their defense has allowed 46 total points in the SEC this year while their offense has scored 127 even with their horrible offensive showing the past 3 games...They have played Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Tennessee which all rank in the top 5 in the SEC in total defense....All have outstanding corners and Ole Miss has possibly the best D-Line in the Country...Tennessee had the best total defense of all teams they have played and it showed last week but anyone that watched that game knows it could have turned out much different....Bama had the ball 2nd and 2 on the 4 and elected to throw it 2 times to Jones, one which should have been Pass interference... Trust me when I say that Saban will have this play calling worked out....Bama ranks 3rd in rushing yards, 6th in passing yards and 4th in total yards per game with 410 yard per game...

koko11 · Answer

I think this is a good line.... I am a Bama homer and I am letting you know this ahead of time and I am not giving my opinion to change your mind on this game...

For both teams it is a one game season right now.. This game pretty much decides who goes to the SEC championship game...Win or go home....Both teams will bring their A game here, but who's A game is going to be better??

First let's look at UA...They have went though this season beating everyone by DD's other than Tennessee last week....Alabama has played the most brutal SEC schedule since 95 and have went through it unscaved... They have played 5 straight SEC games and have went unbeaten winning by double digits in all but 1, and that has not been done since 95...Any SEC fan will tell you that is an accomplishment in it itself... Any SEC team can beat you on any Saturday no matter how bad some people may thing they are...Every SEC team has speed and every SEC team has talent at all positions...Now going through the schedule UA has went though they was primed for a letdown at UT being their 8th game without a break and 5th straight SEC game...Their defense has allowed 46 total points in the SEC this year while their offense has scored 127 even with their horrible offensive showing the past 3 games...They have played Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Tennessee which all rank in the top 5 in the SEC in total defense....All have outstanding corners and Ole Miss has possibly the best D-Line in the Country...Tennessee had the best total defense of all teams they have played and it showed last week but anyone that watched that game knows it could have turned out much different....Bama had the ball 2nd and 2 on the 4 and elected to throw it 2 times to Jones, one which should have been Pass interference... Trust me when I say that Saban will have this play calling worked out....Bama ranks 3rd in rushing yards, 6th in passing yards and 4th in total yards per game with 410 yard per game...

koko11 · Answer

Now LSU has played a laughable of a schedule.. The only defense LSU has faced this year is UF and we all seen what happened there...LSU has given up 71 in the SEC and has scored 107.. But remember the only top defense they have faced is Florida.... They are ranked dead last in offense in the SEC and 5th in the league in total defense... Their rushing defense has been nothing special this year giving up 915 yards on the ground and 1429 yards in the air.... Their secondary is suspect also which will be news to G-mac after facing 3 teams with stellar secondary's in a row....Now LSU's offense is ranked 11th in rushing yards with 1132, passing ranked 10th with 1469 and dead last in yards per game with 325...

Bama has just had a well needed off week and anyone that follows the program knows they was running on fumes the 2nd half... Before the game Linebacker Rolando McClain said they were gassed and did not get their legs back until Thursday.... LSU played a cupcake game last week but that is not the same as an off week.... They still had to prepare and they also still had to play which gives Alabama an advantage...

Now I know everyone is looking at the Florida game and comparing it to this game...That is the wrong way to look at it..Florida was just trying to get out of that one with a win without putting Teabow in danger... Anyone that saw that game knew that was the game plan....They ran the ball up the middle and everyone knew they was going to and LSU could not stop them.... They ran for nearly 200 yards on LSU and I can assure you Alabama will run on them for well over 200.... I would also look for G-mac to take a few shots down field in this game as the last 3 he has not taken anything but shot outs, slants, and pushing the ball to Julio in the end zone.....This will be the best game Alabama has played this year and I just hope everyone will be on the right side..

Bama will win this game going away but as a gambler I am waiting on this line to come down as I know it will...

Bama -27

LSU-13

BOL to all and flame away!!!!

kittsd · Answer

Good information and can&#x27;t really argue with you much about the stats - as you said though in any given week any team in the SEC can knock off another and you know LSU will be looking at this game as their season - already having one loss.&#xD;&#xA;It&#x27;s hard to compare one team to another but just visually the qb&#x27;s appear to be heading in different dirrections which in my mind keeps this game within the number.&#xD;&#xA;I think BAMA is the better team and will get the win but LSU to stay within the number.&#xD;&#xA;By the way the only G-mac I know is bankrupt and on live support so you might want to find a new nickname or just call him by his name until he proves something.&#xD;&#xA;Good Luck.

koko11 · Answer

In my 1st thread my font was to big so re did it with this one... Here is the other thread with the comments on it if anyone cares...OTHER THREAD

tiasman · Answer

Very nice write up.  You are the first one to make me  about my LSU wager.

SportSavant · Answer

That was a good write up. Here are a few more observations:
LSU has been thoroughly unimpressive in all of their performances with the possible exception of the Auburn game in which they received some highly favorable penalties that aided their usually sluggish offense. I do not believe that QB Jordan Jefferson is prepared at this stage of his career to make the necessary plays to come back in a game where LSU is behind...especially on the road!!!!
You cannot over-estimate how huge that bye week was for the Tide, like you said. Their defense always comes to play, so you don't need to worry about that. Their offense has been pathetic in the red zone, but when you give Nick Saban an extra week to game plan, prepare, and get the kinks out, you better watch out. With such a fearsome rushing attack, McElroy is never asked to make overly tough throws, or to fit a ball into tight spaces...they just need more effective play calling.

I agree with you, BAMA at home and off a bye-week is at least ten points better than the Tigers!!

ShadowWarrior · Answer

I had &#x27;bama on a teaser the other week when they squeaked by TN.  I&#x27;ll try them again.  Thanks for the info.

jwheels86 · Answer

I really cant decide with this line. McCelroy worries me laying pts, even with the bye week.

Hank55 · Answer

Bama by 14............sounds about right...GL

koko11 · Answer

tiasman

Do not let me change your mind....I am not trying to change anyone's mind really... I am just going to update info that I gather on this game as this is my strongest game for Bama so far this year...I have gambled on 3 of their games so far this year... Virginia Tech, Florida International which was a let down spot after VT, and Ole Miss which was my largest wager of the year...

SportSavant

I would agree with you...Bama's D is just as good as Florida's with their Bama's D-line being a little better IMO....BOL

ShadowWarrior I didn't bet on that UT game because in my mind that was a lot of points for Bama to overcome with UT's great defense against the run..I bet on the Under in that game and might on this game depending on where they set it..BOL

jwheels86- I would not be worried about G-Mac laying points but that is just me... I know the past few weeks he was not what he was in the 1st few weeks but LSU does not have the rushing defense like the last 3 teams Bama they have faced..The Running game will get going again in this game and I would expect to see more downfield passing like we all seen during the VT game..

Hank55

Agreed...

RobK45 · Answer

I think that this will be a low scoring game, and 9 points in a defensive struggle is alot. But I&#x27;m just not sure that LSU can score enough here.

USMCatc777 · Answer

Dont know where u got your stats Koko...but ESPN has Alabama listed at 13th in rushing yards per game, 98th in passing yards per game, and 33rd in total yards per game with 410....

Dont get me wrong, I like bama to win this one, but u need to check your numbers

koko11 · Answer

I am speaking of SEC stats my friend...

koko11 · Answer

If I were speaking of National Stats LSU ranks in the 100&#x27;s in almost all offensive catagories...

USMCatc777 · Answer

Ahhh....makes much better sense now...thanks!I think if this line moves below 9 it will be a play for me...bama rolls

captjohn67 · Answer

personally i had the number set at 7.5, so i will watch it to see if a halftime wager surfaces...good write-up

koko11 · Answer

Yeah I should have made that clear in the writeup... Thanks for bringing it up because I can see where people could see that I was pulling the numbers out of my ass...

koko11 · Answer

Just want to let everyone know that the line has already come down to 7.5 at most books... If this number his 7 that is the number I am looking for and will make this a very large play for me...

igetmoneyz · Answer

Waiting for it to come down as well.

jp1lsu · Answer

I certainly agree that many of the stats certainly favor Bama, but I completely disagree with the scheduling argument.

OOC us basically a wash where Bama played VT on a neutral field and then FIU, NT, and Chat. LSU played at UW, La Tech, ULL, and Tulane. I think that is basically a wash.

In conference Bama has only faced Ole Miss and UK on the road. SC, and Tenn at home. LSU went on the road to UGA, at Miss St., and then Vandy, Auburn, and UF at home. I would say that conf schedule is easily just as difficult. So I cant say one schedule is the toughest one in 14 years??? And the other is a joke??? Very misleading...

I also think you are underestimating the LSU defense who has played better each week. Especially the LSU DB's who you quickly dismissed.

That being said, I think the line at 7 is just about right. Higher than that is just that, high. I can see where both offenses can struggle on Sat, and both defenses playing well. I've said on other threads that it will take a defensive score or a special teams play to break the spread.

BOL

Bruce_Willis · Answer

koko u damn homer!&#xD;&#xA;i agree that Bama is a very very good team. unfortunately its their defense that is winning games for them. not being able to score a TD against UT? now, i know UT has a very solid D, but for a top 3 team, they should be able to hang at least a TD....and were it not for mount cody, that game could have VERY easily swung the other way. in order to beat teams, you have to be able to convert in the red zone, and currently, Alabama is one of the worst in the red zone. &#xD;&#xA;Now, LSUs defense is obviously struggling, but being able to hang 31 on a mediocre AU defense and getting an easy Tulane team to work on execution may have helped them. and i honestly believe that LSU has the best and by far fastest defense Alabama has faced. i see a very low scoring game, maybe ending 16-10, or 20-13, with Bama getting the W....i think defense keeps this game close&#xD;&#xA;you freshman must have good game with 0 mistakes or your Tide will lose koko!

cajun_one · Answer

I am an LSU fan and season ticket holder.  I will not play this game because I sincerely want to enjoy it.  I think Bama gets a very good scare at home and maybe maybe Saban receives some long overdue karma.  I see LSU covering the points and possibly putting a cherry on top.  We took the Bammer&#x27;s into overtime last year with a shit quarterback so I would be wary of this Tiger team.  They are expected to lose and have nothing to lose.  Madhatter will open the playbook up!

koko11 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by jp1lsu]  I certainly agree that many of the stats certainly favor Bama, but I completely disagree with the scheduling argument.  &#xD;&#xA;OOC us basically a wash where Bama played VT on a neutral field and then FIU, NT, and Chat.  LSU played at UW, La Tech, ULL, and Tulane.  I think that is basically a wash.  &#xD;&#xA;In conference Bama has only faced Ole Miss and UK on the road. SC, and Tenn at home.  LSU went on the road to UGA, at Miss St., and then Vandy, Auburn, and UF at home.  I would say that conf schedule is easily just as difficult.  So I cant say one schedule is the toughest one in 14 years??? And the other is a joke???  Very misleading...&#xD;&#xA;I also think you are underestimating the LSU defense who has played better each week.  Especially the LSU DB&#x27;s who you quickly dismissed.&#xD;&#xA;That being said, I think the line at 7 is just about right. Higher than that is just that, high.  I can see where both offenses can struggle on Sat, and both defenses playing well.  I&#x27;ve said on other threads that it will take a defensive score or a special teams play to break the spread.  &#xD;&#xA;BOL  [/Quote]So Washington is = to Virginia Tech in your mind?? Ok well if that is what you beleive than I can not argue with you.About your in conferance arguement it is a fact that USC, UT, and Ole Miss all have much better defenses than UGA, Vandy, MIss.State and Auburn.. Actually the facts are that all those teams rank 7th or worst in the SEC in total defense while USC, UT, and Ole Miss all rank in the top 5...The only defense LSU has faced is UF&#x27;s...And the toughest schedule in the SEC is not a joke... No team since 95 has played 5 straight conferance games and have went undefeated since 1995.. You can go check the stats... They might have played 5 straight SEC games but either they have lost or they have had a bye which Bama has not had either and that is playing 3 of the top 5 defenses in the SEC....Maybe I am underestimating LSU&#x27;s DB&#x27;s but that would be the only thing I MAY have wrong here... Time will tell...The thing I am going off of is LSU&#x27;s Rush defense... Alabama will run all over them which will open up the passing game which has not happened the past 3 games...Thanks for your input!!!

koko11 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Bruce_Willis]  koko u damn homer!&#xD;&#xA;i agree that Bama is a very very good team. unfortunately its their defense that is winning games for them. not being able to score a TD against UT? now, i know UT has a very solid D, but for a top 3 team, they should be able to hang at least a TD....and were it not for mount cody, that game could have VERY easily swung the other way. in order to beat teams, you have to be able to convert in the red zone, and currently, Alabama is one of the worst in the red zone. &#xD;&#xA;Now, LSUs defense is obviously struggling, but being able to hang 31 on a mediocre AU defense and getting an easy Tulane team to work on execution may have helped them. and i honestly believe that LSU has the best and by far fastest defense Alabama has faced. i see a very low scoring game, maybe ending 16-10, or 20-13, with Bama getting the W....i think defense keeps this game close&#xD;&#xA;you freshman must have good game with 0 mistakes or your Tide will lose koko!  [/Quote]From one homer to another Bruce!!! Will see you the day after Thanksgiving my friend....

LSU at Bama write-up!!!

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