LSU Florida and Michigan State Michigan

Is anyone else on Florida and michigan state? Which game do you feel better about

I don't recall the last time Um covered vs MSU. I'm really surprised it's not 6 or 7 points. Unless O"korn is playing QB and he completely lights these guys up.

Don't like Florida in this one, offense is really bad.  LSU's is too, but they are a cornered animal st this point and get some players back.  Like the under as a play but also a small play on LSU to win SU.

Uni, great intel, man! That is what this forum is for, people that know something, sharing. Thx.

Haven't posted in a while on this forum because I think it's pretty negative overall.  But I'll give you my advice here since you're asking because I have money on both games and I basically swept the board last week and have a pretty good feel for NCAA this year, much more than I did last year.

I think Florida is the correct play.  2.5 is just too low of a number.  I know people like to hate on Florida but the bottom line is they're not that bad.  Yes, they look bad when they play Alabama and the top 5-6 teams but so do a lot of teams.  They can run the ball fairly well at home and their QB play has been more competent this year.  Defensively, they could be better sure but they're solid and you can't go onto their home field expecting to light up the score board.

LSU is just a joke.  Their coach is a moron.  Offensively, they should get overwhelmed here.  They won't run the ball well.  Their QB is an immobile white guy with few play makers and poor play design.  Defensively, LSU is very ordinary and I think Florida is better overall.  I think Florida is a little better on both sides and they're at home.  Most importantly, they have some confidence where LSU has none and looks totally lost.  Not a slam dunk because you never know but Florida is the right play I believe.  However, missing their top WR does hurt.  That moved the line 3 points.  I think they'll overcome that though.  LSU is just so bad right now on offense they won't need that many plays to win.

I see everyone on MSU on this forum.  I like Michigan a lot.  Michigan has the top rated defense in the FBS.  It's really, really hard to score on this team.  That is being overlooked way too much.  It's that much harder on their home field.  And MSU just isn't a very good offensive team.  They did nothing at home vs Iowa or Notre Dame in spots where you should be able to put up at least 23-24.  They won't be able to run the ball.  They don't have a lot of talent in the passing game and they have a QB who can't scramble.  They're not gonna score.  10 points isn't enough when I doubt you can get one offensive TD.

Michigan on the other hand CAN score.  Yes, they could be better.  But I see all this whining about the Michigan offense and all I see is them winning by double digits every week.  They put up a ton of yards on Florida and got things going when they were down 2 tds early.  MSU is sketchy on defense at this point we don't know how good they are as they've played no one.  I think Michigan can get 23-24 in this game or more.  They're gonna have good field position.  MSU could wind up with 6-7 points.  This line is too low.  Has to be at least 13.  I think 14 is more accurate and I'd still take Michigan at 14.  All the MSU betters are going to hate it when they watch the game Saturday night and see their offense getting stuffed over and over again.  Michigan just needs to make a few plays to cover and over the course of a game they usually find a way to do that.  They started out slow vs Purdue and Florida and covered both.  MSU just isn't a contender this year.  They're better than last year's awful team but they're still a step back from previous years.

Couple things I like about this.  Michigan is a WINNING team.  This is a team of winners.  Harbaugh is a winner.  I don't like him, but he is a great coach, and he is the next best coach besides Saban.  His teams are extremely well coached and they have great game plans and I would be stunned if they lost this game. 

The second thing I like is Michigan is overdue to cover in this series.  People like that 9 times in a row MSU is gonna cover.  That's more of a reason not to bet them.  Everything reverts back to the mean.  I did very well in baseball betting with the reversion to the mean in my favor this year in spots most bettors wouldn't bet.  You don't bet against math.  This isn't to say you don't bet on teams with momentum.  That's a different story and every situation has to be dissected in its own entity.  But the reversion to the mean is Michigan getting the cover.  I think they're much better and this line is too low and it seems taylormade to cover vs an MSU team that should look inept on offense in this game.  Could easily be 34-6.  Look at the Pats game tonight.  14 points.  They're not good on defense, but not as bad as they looked in previous weeks.  They were due for a good game.  Just like Michigan is due to cover in this game.

I know that's too long of an analysis, but I see everyone on MSU just because they think Michigan is "bad" on offense and I think they're missing the keys to this game.  I liked Auburn vs Miss St last week as well when I saw most people on Miss St because matchup wise they were dominated on both sides of the ball and on the road.  This is a terrible matchup for MSU and almost the same line.  Feels like a 27-6 win to me.  We'll see. 

Florida vs LSU, good luck! Think Tigers are the play or pass.