All Forums | College Football

L'Ville will beat FSU Thursday night!

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 2865
Posts: 49
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26739
Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:

[Quote: Originally Posted
by VegasVandal] I was on LSU on that game last week and loved the complexion of the game. dont see the same complexion for this game. hard to explain but on a side note why in the hell are you buying from 4 to 4.5? that is a " no mans land number" and shouldnt be bought off of. only buy off key numbers
In a low scoring game like that one, 4 is a very key number, and the game proved it... those with 3.5 needed LSU to score that TD in the 4th quarter... I didn't!  I was sitting pretty the entire game...Outside of 3 and 7, 4 is the next most critical number... not sure what you are thinking making that statement!


Numbers divisible by 3 and 7 are the most critical numbers. You are welcome to believe what you want but 3.7.10,14 are the 4 most key numbers in CFB.

You ever heard of a sample size? You may have benefited from buying that to 4.5 in this game but I bet you won't benefit from it in the next 10 games you do it in. I could show you the stats to prove what I am saying but it would take some work gathering from a mass database. Basically that 10 cents in juice you are eating every time you make that losing bet adds up big time.


Numbers divisible by 3 and 7 are the most critical numbers. You are welcome to believe what you want but 3.7.10,14 are the 4 most key numbers in CFB.

You ever heard of a sample size? You may have benefited from buying that to 4.5 in this game but I bet you won't benefit from it in the next 10 games you do it in. I could show you the stats to prove what I am saying but it would take some work gathering from a mass database. Basically that 10 cents in juice you are eating every time you make that losing bet adds up big time.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26739
Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by OGHowie282:

[Quote: Originally Posted
by VegasVandal] not trying to be a jerk here but if you think opposite sides of the same game can both have value then you don't really understand how value works in sports
Hmmm...I disagree, but I could be convinced otherwise.  This line has moved from 8.5 to 3.5.  People switch their bets based on the line.  Some people only bet dogs.  Some people play middles in situations such as this.  You live bet constantly.  Never play a middle?  Maybe it's degenerate...Maybe we have different definitions of value.


So you are trying to tell me that there is value getting Louisville Moneyline and getting Florida state -4 and hoping for a 4 pt middle ? That's what you mean from a value standpoint? Not sure I follow

But as far as live betting I will middle a game in game or halftime only if I see the game going the opposite direction on me and if I see value in said in game wager as a stand alone bet (disregarding that I have the other side). Will generally only do it if I am getting at least a 14 point middle because most of the time all you end up doing is eating the juice when all is said and done. Not a good idea long term unless it's right situation


So you are trying to tell me that there is value getting Louisville Moneyline and getting Florida state -4 and hoping for a 4 pt middle ? That's what you mean from a value standpoint? Not sure I follow

But as far as live betting I will middle a game in game or halftime only if I see the game going the opposite direction on me and if I see value in said in game wager as a stand alone bet (disregarding that I have the other side). Will generally only do it if I am getting at least a 14 point middle because most of the time all you end up doing is eating the juice when all is said and done. Not a good idea long term unless it's right situation
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26739
Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:

Furthermore, I bought it
at reduced juice (-115), because the book had the line at +4 (-105)...Still, it's hilarious that you criticize me when the score of the game was 7-3 for the majority, and those of you with 3.5 were sweating it out at the end, while I was enjoying the game with an already winning bet...


Those who wander the dragon's lair and at first dont get burnt will now think that they have found a safety shelter.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 1587
Posted: #29
Vegas... you aren't talking to a rookie here!  I've been doing this for 30 years... every single game is a different entity, and in this game, the difference between 3.5 and 4.5 was critical!

Take your sh!t-talking somewhere else, because I have been in this game longer than you have, and I am an expert in the field of statistics, with a Master's degree to back it up!

You're talking down to the WRONG PERSON!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 1587
Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

Basically that 10 cents in juice you are eating every time you make that losing bet adds up big time.


I understand juice!  I'm not eating 10 percent juice on every game... I bought it on this game, on a critical number, and it paid off!  I didn't need that last TD by LSU... it turns out, I got it, but if they don't score that TD, I still win!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 1587
Posted: #31
And once more, since you are trying to explain "math" to me... let me point out that -115 is not an extra 10% juice... it is 5%!  I was getting a discounted rate to buy the half point, so I took it!  I wouldn't have bet -120... but at -115 it was worth the risk... I capped this game at 17-13 (either way), so getting a hook on 4 points was a calculated risk, and for 5% juice I calculated it was worth it!

I was right!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2013
Posts: 2509
Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by ______P______:

Well if I lose with FSU -4 or -5, tip of the cap to the vile. I will take that chance.

Same here! To get FSU at -4 I can't refuse that. I'll take my chances also.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 6735
Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Buzz44:


Same here! To get FSU at -4 I can't refuse that. I'll take my chances also.

My sentiments exactly. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 200
Posted: #34
Please please , losses to Virginia and Clemson, and huge wins over let's see,Murray st, Fla Inter, Wake, Cuse, NC St, Giant killers , careful with the amount you risk, just sayin!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 1587
Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by devadoll53:

Please please , losses to Virginia and Clemson, and huge wins over let's see,Murray st, Fla Inter, Wake, Cuse, NC St, Giant killers , careful with the amount you risk, just sayin!


Lucky for you guys, the books/sharps don't pay attention to the schedules... so nice of them to give you the gift of laying only 4 points with the defending champs, who haven't lost a game in almost 2 years... 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2013
Posts: 174
Posted: #36
crimiNOLES are going to down Thursday Night!
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26739
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:

And once more, since you are trying to explain "math" to me... let me point out that -115 is not an extra 10% juice... it is 5%!  I was getting a discounted rate to buy the half point, so I took it!  I wouldn't have bet -120... but at -115 it was worth the risk... I capped this game at 17-13 (either way), so getting a hook on 4 points was a calculated risk, and for 5% juice I calculated it was worth it!

I was right!


no it wasn't. they won he game outright......
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26739
Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:

Vegas... you aren't talking to a rookie here!  I've been doing this for 30 years... every single game is a different entity, and in this game, the difference between 3.5 and 4.5 was critical!

Take your sh!t-talking somewhere else, because I have been in this game longer than you have, and I am an expert in the field of statistics, with a Master's degree to back it up!

You're talking down to the WRONG PERSON!


I have a BS in Finance from the University of Nevada...half of what I did in college was statistics related

What I am trying to tell you is that with a complete population of games played throughout the last 25+ years you can find out whether or not over the long haul buying off certain numbers if profitable

check this out :  https://www.boydsbets.com/college-football-key-numbers/

See the chart key numbers (the second one). it tells you that the most key numbers are 3,7,4,10 followed by 14. what i was talking about earlier is you could consider 4 a key number but you would not be profitable in the long haul buying off of it.

That 2nd table sums up last 25 years of NCAAF games with that line and only 19 out of 550 games with a line of 4 (3.4% of the time) did buying from 4 to 4.5 give you a win rather than a push/loss. This strategy nets you a loss of -535.
 


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 16
Posted: #39
More like FSU by 17. Even if 'Ville is "the best defense they have and will face", 'Ville isn't going to be able to put many points on the board themselves. This is going to be a comfortable win for the Seminoles. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 1587
Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:



I have a BS in Finance from the University of Nevada...half of what I did in college was statistics related

What I am trying to tell you is that with a complete population of games played throughout the last 25+ years you can find out whether or not over the long haul buying off certain numbers if profitable

check this out :  https://www.boydsbets.com/college-football-key-numbers/

See the chart key numbers (the second one). it tells you that the most key numbers are 3,7,4,10 followed by 14. what i was talking about earlier is you could consider 4 a key number but you would not be profitable in the long haul buying off of it.

That 2nd table sums up last 25 years of NCAAF games with that line and only 19 out of 550 games with a line of 4 (3.4% of the time) did buying from 4 to 4.5 give you a win rather than a push/loss. This strategy nets you a loss of -535.
 




And what I'm trying to tell you is that I was betting on 25 years worth of football... I was betting on this game, in which I considered 4 to be a key number, and it was!  Those who had 3.5 were in a perilous situation... I was not!

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2013
Posts: 3267
Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:

And once more, since you are trying to explain "math" to me... let me point out that -115 is not an extra 10% juice... it is 5%!  I was getting a discounted rate to buy the half point, so I took it!  I wouldn't have bet -120... but at -115 it was worth the risk... I capped this game at 17-13 (either way), so getting a hook on 4 points was a calculated risk, and for 5% juice I calculated it was worth it!

I was right!
Yes it is since your original line was +4-105, so +4.5 -115 is an extra 10% juice Dope. Jesus, I never seen someone talk like they know so much and actually know so little. Still think the Patriots are done and will be 8-8 at best? Stop watching football and stop gambling, you are pretty clueless in most of your statements
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26739
Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:



And what I'm trying to tell you is that I was betting on 25 years worth of football... I was betting on this game, in which I considered 4 to be a key number, and it was!  Those who had 3.5 were in a perilous situation... I was not!




I just showed you the exact data that you are wrong. just because you think it worked once doesn't mean its smart long term. I proved it is not


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 4418
Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyClay:

The fact that the line is dropping on a public and #2 team is all you need to know.

This.  The public is not betting on Louisville against the NO. 2 team and LY's  national champ.  I don't always rely on "sharp line movement" or RLM but it's screaming for a bet in this situation.  There's no way the public is pushing this hard on 2-loss Louisville. If anything, there should be enough florida state action to keep this line at -6 or so.  The fact it dropped from -8.5 to 4 and crossed 7 and nearly reached 3 says a LOT.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2014
Posts: 70
Posted: #44
told you mr shark attack
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 1962
Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by War_Eagle1631:

told you mr shark attack


Lol, you told him and I told him, but he never listens, just argues. I hope he continues posting for the laughs though.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2014
Posts: 45
Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Sabanade:



Lol, you told him and I told him, but he never listens, just argues. I hope he continues posting for the laughs though.


That statement was rude.  True but rude.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 192
Posted: #47
Congrats to the FSU backers, I was incorrect.  FSU proved to be too much for Louisville in the 2nd half.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 4870
Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by sportryfella:

Congrats to the FSU backers, I was incorrect.  FSU proved to be too much for Louisville in the 2nd half.

Big man... man up your words... most people run away and cry to there momma
 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 33024
Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by sportryfella:

Congrats to the FSU backers, I was incorrect.  FSU proved to be too much for Louisville in the 2nd half.

Tough loss. Kudos! 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.